- Apr 27, 2005
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Your math is wrong. The only thing wrong with Fiala is that he's hitting the post a lot and running into hot goaltenders. Look at the percentages and get back to me.
Value of: Kevin Fiala
- Thread starter thestonedkoala
- Start date
Fiala's mediocre production relative to his talent level is because of;
- Terrible linemates. Confirmed 4th liners like Rask, Gaudreau, etc.
- Bad luck. He really has been hittng a lot of iron.
- He tends to overhandle the puck, and try and do it all himself, i.e., will get past two players, then will lose the puck while trying to get past the 3rd. Some might argue that if it's a choice between passing to Victor Rask or trying to stickhandle past an opponent then you do the latter, even if it's against someone like Slavin.
The jury is still out on how good of a player Fiala is. He is fast, as well as quick, with excellent hands and shot. Surprisingly strong for a guy that 5'10"- size is not an issue. If anything, he needs to calm down, as he tends to take penalties. The only thing that might limit him is his hockey IQ. His creativity is really good, but has trouble id'ing when to, and not to, make a risky pass or play. A lot of Wild fans are hoping that he gets to play with a talented linemate(Boldy? Rossi?) if/before we decide to trade him. He definitely has the talent to be a 60-75 pt player, IMO.
It could also be that he is a talented player that simply underproduces in the NHL for his entire career.
I saw Fiala play about 60 games in Milwaukee. That is exactly what he did here for too many games.
He has played about 5 NHL seasons. How long before he gets it? At the moment, I would say that 60 pts is his ceiling. If he starts playing with a Crosby or another similar player he could get to 75 or more points.
He had 78, 45 and 18 PIMs in Milwaukee. In Nashville, he had around 20 PIMs each year. The last season for the Preds he had 26 PIMs in 64 games. He has been in the 40s for the Wild and is headed for that this year.
You think he should have 14 goals when he has 6. I say that he should have 8 at his career goal scoring average.
He has played 367 NHL games. That is enough for good stats analysis.
You are in denial.
- Apr 27, 2005
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I don't know. He sits at 6 of 97 this season for 6.2%, good for 459th place in the NHL.
I looked at goalies save percentages. The middle goalie in 45th place was Darcy Kuemper at .907, meaning the average shooting percentage in the NHL should be 9.3% (.093).
Kevin Fiala is at 2/3 of the league average shooting percentage.
To quote Todd Rundgren: "The whole world has the jump on me, that's why I am always late!"
Fiala could use a week or two in the AHL to get his game back together. That S% is worse than his 2 goal deficit.
I will try to remember to come back in 20 games. We will see how Fiala is doing at 50 games played. At his current pace, he will have 10 goals. Going back to his historic scoring rate, he will have 11 goals. He should be at 13 goals at that time in a normal (average) season for him.
- Dec 10, 2012
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Your posts are an excellent example of how dangerous statistics can be in the hands of someone who doesn't know how to use them.
Historically, 9.7% which would mean he's well below this season. He also usually averages only 2.25 shots per game, this season, he's over 3, which means he's shooting more, but maybe not getting better looks.
- Apr 27, 2005
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The data actually suggests the opposite is true. He's generating nearly twice as many high danger scoring chances that he has in his prior two seasons in Minnesota.
The last 2 years, he averaged 8.44 and 8.98 shots/60, with 0.68 ixG/60 and 0.85 ixG/60 respectively. This year he's averaging slightly more shots at 9.85 shots/60, but a much higher 1.07 ixG/60, which again suggests his shot quality is higher than it was in the previous two years.
That 1.07 ixG/60 is the highest he's ever had in his career, yet his actual G/60 is 0.48, the lowest of his career.
This is a prime example of poor puck luck in a small sample size.
- Apr 27, 2005
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You need to go read up on the subject of hockey analytics before you make you make an even bigger fool of yourself.
Lies, damn lies and statistics right? Just goes to show you can use them on either side of the argument.
- Apr 27, 2005
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What is the other side of this argument? No forward in the league has more shots and less goals than Fiala. The next closest is Pastrnak.
Coincidentally, Fiala and Pastrnak both lead the league in posts hit with 8. There is no "damned lie" here. This is very basic stuff.
Also his career shooting percentage is 10.5%, not sure where you got 9.7% from.
OMG dude you are so right, I was so wrong on that shooting percentage. I mean, and yeah, no lies here every, Fiala is the perfect player that is just unlucky, he's worth every dime he makes and has never had an attitude every. I mean, he'll likely finish the year at a ppg.
- Apr 27, 2005
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I am glad you now agree that he has been unlucky this year to only have 6 goals. You know you're allowed to accept that fact without having to admit anything about the quality of him as a player or his attitude, right?
Granlund is a great player and Nashville is lucky to have him, so I don't see why so many Preds fans are so salty on Fiala.
Show me where I said anything to the contrary? Fiala is a good player. And likely I'm was being unfair about the attitude stuff.
I agree it was a good trade for Nashville. We got a good all around center who was easily extended long term, and seems to be a very good fit here.
- Apr 27, 2005
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I figured when you sarcastically said he was a "perfect player who was just unlucky" you were implying that he was just bad.
Honestly, my only issues with Fiala historically was his attitude early with Josi, and he's always seemed difficult during negotiations. His 200' game was also lacking, especially early
Ha, he's still the same in negotiations, and Koivu gave him a pretty harsh talking to on the bench early on. I can go either way with him. I can see the Wild trading him away and him turning into a monster when put on a line with talented players, or i can see him going along and being the same, and being a talented guy who underproduces.
I will say this, he is not a lazy player. He works hard, especially on the forecheck. If he was a floater I'd be harder on him.
Until MN actually plays him with at least one talented player on his line I am hesitant to judge him too harshly.
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GuerinUp
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- Dec 10, 2012
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GuerinUp
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who are you going to trade (thats desireable to other teams) to make up the salary needed to extend him, as well as afford the extra deduction in salary cap room? Top 4 D has either NMC or NTC. so youre left with zuccarello whos getting old. I just dont see it happening.
i would bet the chances of fiala getting extended here are near 5%
Eggtimer
Registered User
Back to trade offers. Who would the Wild want from NJ ? Id love to see him play with Nico, join Seigenthaler as swiss players on the team.
Only players I can see NJ not trade is Nico ( their captian and recently signed long term ) Jack Hughes ( just extended ) Luke Hughes ( still 1 1/2 seasons out from playing on the Decils but no way they trade Jacks brother before he even plays a game) Hamilton (Just acquired him in the off-season and they have a huge need for a top pair RHD )
I’d also add Mercer to the list of players they wouldn’t trade. not sure if that leaves anything the Wild would want.
Picks also available but would be top 2?-5? protected (looks very likely they will pick very high based off of recent horrible play )
Only players I can see NJ not trade is Nico ( their captian and recently signed long term ) Jack Hughes ( just extended ) Luke Hughes ( still 1 1/2 seasons out from playing on the Decils but no way they trade Jacks brother before he even plays a game) Hamilton (Just acquired him in the off-season and they have a huge need for a top pair RHD )
I’d also add Mercer to the list of players they wouldn’t trade. not sure if that leaves anything the Wild would want.
Picks also available but would be top 2?-5? protected (looks very likely they will pick very high based off of recent horrible play )
- Dec 10, 2012
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Just because it's not the path Guerin is likely going to choose to go down doesn't mean it would be hard to do if he wanted to.
How about Donskoi (50% retained) 1.95M UFA 2023 + Calgary 2022 4th for Minnesota 2022 1st?
Then at the draft Fiala for Minnesota 1st + Seattle 2022 3rd?
Get Donskoi at half off for the next 2 playoff runs and helps with the cap next season. Keep Fiala for this playoff run and then move him in the offseason when you most likely can't resign him. For Seattle they get a young offensively gifted player that they lack. Lose some on the defensive side with Donskoi going the other way but he doesn't seem to be a long term player while Fiala would be and they can afford to pay him on his next deal.
Then at the draft Fiala for Minnesota 1st + Seattle 2022 3rd?
Get Donskoi at half off for the next 2 playoff runs and helps with the cap next season. Keep Fiala for this playoff run and then move him in the offseason when you most likely can't resign him. For Seattle they get a young offensively gifted player that they lack. Lose some on the defensive side with Donskoi going the other way but he doesn't seem to be a long term player while Fiala would be and they can afford to pay him on his next deal.
