Value of: Kevin Fiala

[BuiumSaveUs]

If the Canes don't progress in the playoffs, Necas 1-for-1?

Carolina may need to take a swing at increasing the skill level of the team now. Minnesota gets a young player with upside that it can bridge at a cheap price to get through the big buyout years.

I like Necas but I would want Jarvis. Certainly not 1 for 1. Necas is three years younger, but we'd be hoping he turns into a Fiala level player. It would kinda be like trying to recapture the Fiala-Granlund trade magic.

 

[PuckInTheNards]

I like Necas but I would want Jarvis. Certainly not 1 for 1. Necas is three years younger, but we'd be hoping he turns into a Fiala level player. It would kinda be like trying to recapture the Fiala-Granlund trade magic.

And it would more likely recapture the Rask-Nino "trade magic" f*** that. Never again.

 

[Digitalbooya]

maybe its just you.....

It’s not. 3/4 of the conversations I didn’t partake in, just read.

 

[57special]

Idk. We've always seen Fiala progress throughout the season like this. Start slow and go on a tear. If the last two season hadn't been shortened, i think he would've found his way to close to a ppg. I don't think this season has been different enough to change their minds. If they valued him at 3x6 (Russo speculation), i don't think they're suddenly going to give him 7.5

That's why we'd probably trade him with an extension

This is the first (half)year that Fiala has had a decent talent on his line, Boldy. He has only recently got onto the #1 PP. Gaudreau has been good recently, but before this year he was a 27 yo with 18 career NHL points. Not hard to argue that Fiala has been carrying him.

In other words, if you think he was good before, imagine what he will be with a maturing Boldy, nvm if MN finds a decent C

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

That's too much for a RFA that needs a big contract and can walk in a year.

I can guarantee you no one is making a trade for him without a contract in place. Most of all Ottawa.

If there's no contract, we aren't even interested.

 

[TommyDangles]

I can guarantee you no one is making a trade for him without a contract in place. Most of all Ottawa.

If there's no contract, we aren't even interested.

Well yeah. No team will trade for him if he's not signing an extension. The fact he's an RFA with arb that can walk in a year just hurts his value from Minnesota's side. Similar to last year with Sam Reinhart & Pavel Buchnevich.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Well yeah. No team will trade for him if he's not signing an extension. The fact he's an RFA with arb that can walk in a year just hurts his value from Minnesota's side. Similar to last year with Sam Reinhart & Pavel Buchnevich.

If we're bring Reinhart into it, it should be noted how much better of a player/producer Fiala is than Reinhart was at the time.

 

[TommyDangles]

If we're bring Reinhart into it, it should be noted how much better of a player/producer Fiala is than Reinhart was at the time.

Fiala is better offensively, but Reinhart was better defensively. I think Fiala will get a better prospect than Reinhart got, but I don't think the trade will look that much different. Protected 1st + prospect.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

There are a few cases of high-end wingers being traded that we can look to. I'm going to breakdown a few, and you'll see that multiple high-end seasons as well as seasons with high point totals, NOT point paces, matters in a potential return. Let's look at a few cases and evaluate the player based on age, pedigree(number of seasons with 1st line+ production), and statistics. These player were at least in somewhat similar contract situations. This obviously isn't a fool-proof system for interpreting Fiala's value, but it should give us an idea of the range of outcomes.

*Let's define 1st line production. There are 90 first line spots available in the league. Some teams have 6 first line caliber players, others have none. The 90th forward in ppg this season (min. 30 games) is Jeff Skinner with a .779ppg, or a 64 point pace. This year is far higher than normal for scoring, so I'm going to use the middle ground between now and 2015 as some of these players were traded a while ago. In 2015, the 90th ranked forward in ppg (min 30 games) was TJ Oshie with a .638 ppg, or a 52 point pace. A more accurate way to do this would be to adjust each player's stats relative to the season the produced those stats in, but that seems like a lot of work. I'm going to use the middle of 64 points and 52 points as the cutoff for a 1st line forward (58points / .707ppg)

Buchnevich:
Age when traded: 26
# of seasons w/ 1st line production: 1
points per game last 3 seasons: .709
Career High points: 48
return: Blais + 2nd

Paccioretty:
Age when traded: 28
# of seasons w/ 1st line produciton: 6
points per game last 3 seasons: .74
Career High points: 67 (39 goals)
return: Suzuki, Tatar, 2nd

Reinhart:
Age when traded: 25
# of seasons w/ 1st line produciton: 3
points per game last 3 seasons: .75
Career High points: 65
return: 1st + Levi

Fiala:
Age when traded: 25
# of seasons w/ 1st line produciton: 3
points per game last 3 seasons: .9
Career High points: 77 (5 games left in season)
return: you tell me

I think Fiala should return more than Reinhart. Buchnevich wasn't really close to Fiala's profile at the point he was traded (a trade that many thought was bad immediatly no less) so he's not a comparable for me. Fiala is a statistically better player than Paccioretty, but pedigree talks and scoring is up this year compared to Patches prime. Fiala's age is favorable, though. I would bet that Fiala's return will fall somewhere in between the Reinhart return and the Paccioretty return.

 

[Sota Popinski]

2022 1st + ok prospect

Absolutely not

 

[TommyDangles]

Absolutely not

You are going to be disappointed.

 

[Sota Popinski]

You are going to be disappointed.

What I've learned is how much Wild fans overrate Fiala and can't understand advanced stats.

If Spurgeon was 23 it'd be a starting point.

You've had a hard-on for Fiala since last summer

 

[TommyDangles]

You've had a hard-on for Fiala since last summer

Did you really go through my post history from a year ago lol. I think you may have a hard on for me.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

There are a few cases of high-end wingers being traded that we can look to. I'm going to breakdown a few, and you'll see that multiple high-end seasons as well as seasons with high point totals, NOT point paces, matters in a potential return. Let's look at a few cases and evaluate the player based on age, pedigree(number of seasons with 1st line+ production), and statistics. These player were at least in somewhat similar contract situations. This obviously isn't a fool-proof system for interpreting Fiala's value, but it should give us an idea of the range of outcomes.

*Let's define 1st line production. There are 90 first line spots available in the league. Some teams have 6 first line caliber players, others have none. The 90th forward in ppg this season (min. 30 games) is Jeff Skinner with a .779ppg, or a 64 point pace. This year is far higher than normal for scoring, so I'm going to use the middle ground between now and 2015 as some of these players were traded a while ago. In 2015, the 90th ranked forward in ppg (min 30 games) was TJ Oshie with a .638 ppg, or a 52 point pace. A more accurate way to do this would be to adjust each player's stats relative to the season the produced those stats in, but that seems like a lot of work. I'm going to use the middle of 64 points and 52 points as the cutoff for a 1st line forward (58points / .707ppg)

Buchnevich:
Age when traded: 26
# of seasons w/ 1st line production: 1
points per game last 3 seasons: .709
Career High points: 48
return: Blais + 2nd

Paccioretty:
Age when traded: 28
# of seasons w/ 1st line produciton: 6
points per game last 3 seasons: .74
Career High points: 67 (39 goals)
return: Suzuki, Tatar, 2nd

Reinhart:
Age when traded: 25
# of seasons w/ 1st line produciton: 3
points per game last 3 seasons: .75
Career High points: 65
return: 1st + Levi

Fiala:
Age when traded: 25
# of seasons w/ 1st line produciton: 3
points per game last 3 seasons: .9
Career High points: 77 (5 games left in season)
return: you tell me

I think Fiala should return more than Reinhart. Buchnevich wasn't really close to Fiala's profile at the point he was traded (a trade that many thought was bad immediatly no less) so he's not a comparable for me. Fiala is a statistically better player than Paccioretty, but pedigree talks and scoring is up this year compared to Patches prime. Fiala's age is favorable, though. I would bet that Fiala's return will fall somewhere in between the Reinhart return and the Paccioretty return.

Should maybe be noted Buchnevich’s 48 points were in 54 games. In all fairness.

 

[Sota Popinski]

Did you really go through my post history from a year ago lol. I think you may have a hard on for me.

Thanks for conceding the argument by so shamelessly deflecting. It took me less than a minute to find your posts about fiala. I was shocked to find out that your takes were just as stupid then. But keep acting like you're an expert.

 

[TommyDangles]

Thanks for conceding the argument by so shamelessly deflecting. It took me less than a minute to find your posts about fiala. I was shocked to find out that your takes were just as stupid then. But keep acting like you're an expert.

Deflecting from what? You're gonna be disappointed with the return if your response to a 1st + ok prospect is absolutely not.

I thought it was stupid people were saying FIala was WAY better than Reinhart back then because he has more points. I still believe that. I like two-way guys better than all offensive wingers.

Do you have an actual argument?

 

[TryamkinPleaseReturn]

Any idea of what he wants on his next contract? He's young, just entering his prime, and has put up quite the season offensively. Actually his last three years have been great. He'd be a good target for a team wanting scoring, but I'd want to know what kind of contract he's after before making an offer?

 

[Sota Popinski]

Deflecting from what? You're gonna be disappointed with the return if your response to a 1st + ok prospect is absolutely not.

I thought it was stupid people were saying FIala was WAY better than Reinhart back then because he has more points. I still believe that. I like two-way guys better than all offensive wingers.

Do you have an actual argument?

Yes. Fiala will go for more than a mid-late 1st and an ok prospect.

5 assists so far tonight to put him at 82 points for the season. Reinhart also wanted out. Fiala doesn't. Not way better than Reinhart, but definitely worth more now than Reinhart was then. That's the argument.

 

[Bazeek]

Any idea of what he wants on his next contract? He's young, just entering his prime, and has put up quite the season offensively. Actually his last three years have been great. He'd be a good target for a team wanting scoring, but I'd want to know what kind of contract he's after before making an offer?

Between $7.25m and $8.25m, with very low chances of him being a disappointment if you give one other skilled forward to work with.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Any idea of what he wants on his next contract? He's young, just entering his prime, and has put up quite the season offensively. Actually his last three years have been great. He'd be a good target for a team wanting scoring, but I'd want to know what kind of contract he's after before making an offer?

As far as just having an idea, term and > $6.5M is probably a starting point. The upper end is a bit of mystery.

Apparently Guerin's offer to him last summer was 3 x $6M and it "wasn't close", as it shouldn't have been.

 

[TommyDangles]

Yes. Fiala will go for more than a mid-late 1st and an ok prospect.

5 assists so far tonight to put him at 82 points for the season. Reinhart also wanted out. Fiala doesn't. Not way better than Reinhart, but definitely worth more now than Reinhart was then. That's the argument.

His contract situation really hurts his value.

How many teams can take on a winger for 7.5M long term? I assume the wild don't want to be taking any $$$ going back either. Out of those teams that can fit him, why not go after a big FA winger like Johnny G or Forsberg instead without having to give up assets? The wild aren't dealing from a position of power. Teams know their cap situation and that he can walk in a year. The RFA with arb market is tough. We seen that with Reinhart & Buch last year. Guys got less than expected because of their contract situation. Sabres fans were thinking that we'd be getting a top 10 pick for Sam.

Reinhart wanted out? Reinhart was fine with staying, but we had to overpay. Didn't really fit in with our window & with Eichel being gone. Same with Ullmark & McCabe.

I did say he would get a better prospect that Reinhart, just that the trade framework of a 1st + prospect will be similar. Production is up like crazy this year FWIW

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Any idea of what he wants on his next contract? He's young, just entering his prime, and has put up quite the season offensively. Actually his last three years have been great. He'd be a good target for a team wanting scoring, but I'd want to know what kind of contract he's after before making an offer?

probably going to ask for like 9. I think he ends up around 7.5M. If he continues this trajectory though, we could be talking a lot more.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

His contract situation really hurts his value.

How many teams can take on a winger for 7.5M long term? I assume the wild don't want to be taking any $$$ going back either. Out of those teams that can fit him, why not go after a big FA winger like Johnny G or Forsberg instead without having to give up assets? The wild aren't dealing from a position of power. Teams know their cap situation and that he can walk in a year. The RFA with arb market is tough. We seen that with Reinhart & Buch last year. Guys got less than expected because of their contract situation. Sabres fans were thinking that we'd be getting a top 10 pick for Sam.

Reinhart wanted out? Reinhart was fine with staying, but we had to overpay. Didn't really fit in with our window & with Eichel being gone. Same with Ullmark & McCabe.

I did say he would get a better prospect that Reinhart, just that the trade framework of a 1st + prospect will be similar. Production is up like crazy this year FWIW

It shouldn't be a choice between getting something great and only getting something good. It should be a choice between getting something great or keeping him. And yes, keeping him is financially possible. Just requires a little GM work.

 

[jmelm]

Did you really go through my post history from a year ago lol. I think you may have a hard on for me.

With all this talk of hard ons, maybe you guys want to get a room?

 

[TommyDangles]

It shouldn't be a choice between getting something great and only getting something good. It should be a choice between getting something great or keeping him. And yes, keeping him is financially possible. Just requires a little GM work.

From everything I've heard it sounds like Fiala is gonna be traded. Maybe things can change.