Value of: Kevin Fiala to NJ

[AKL]

82 forwards have played the 1,004 minutes (or more) that Fiala has played 5v5 this year, he ranks 9th in xGA/60.

9th as in 9th best or 9th worst? Does he have a good xGA/60 or a bad one?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

9th as in 9th best or 9th worst? Does he have a good xGA/60 or a bad one?

9th best. A good number.

 

[TBF1972]

Intention? They are there and nothing can be done about it.

so i am not the only one struggling to see the immediate benefits of them.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

so i am not the only one struggling to see the immediate benefits of them.

One of the benefits was to just turn the page on that group, and there might have been some locker room issues that their departures resolved.

Second, the amount of cap space that it opened up this season allowed us to re-sign Kaprizov to his deal without having to jettison another important piece this season (Fiala, Dumba, etc...)

But from the beginning we've know that these next 3 years were going to be difficult to navigate.

 

[thestonedkoala]

A. Fiala isn't gonna be some cheap deal. If that was the case he'd just resign with the Wild. His contract will probably be close to guys like Forsberg. Thinking that he's gonna get a top pick + A prospect on top of that is crazy. Reinhart got a late 1st + ok prospect. Mark Stone got 2nd + Brannstrom. Expect similar for Fiala.

B. I'm sure a lot of teams will threaten it and Guerin knows that. He's not in a good position right now. He'll likely get traded before that though for a similar value.

Reinhart got one of the top goalie prospects in Devon Levi, but okay.

Hagel got two conditional first round picks, a decent forward prospect and a meh prospect.

 

[AKL]

9th best. A good number.

+1 like

 

[My3Sons]

How many teams can pay Fiala on his next deal? He's going to command a sizable contract. Maybe $8.5 mil for 7 years? Sure, every team in the league would love to move out underperforming salary to add Fiala but it isn't that easy. Even NJ is paying Hamilton, Hischier, Hughes starting next season, and likely Bratt starting next season. Maybe they can keep Bratt below $8 mil on a long term deal but can they add another $8+ million player? And they aren't cap strapped. Fiala is a great player and in a vacuum would return a lot but finding the right fit outside MN would be tough.

 

[AKL]

How many teams can pay Fiala on his next deal?

Anaheim
Los Angeles
Seattle
Arizona
Chicago
Columbus
New Jersey
Ottawa
Montreal
Detroit
Buffalo

Then there are teams who are rumored to be making some moves this summer, that could afford him if they wanted to

Vancouver
Calgary can if they do end up losing Gaudreau
Minnesota
Carolina

I'm sure someone will point out why one or two of these are wrong, I'm also sure there would be more than 4 teams in the latter category. Either way, I think you get the gist that over a third of the league would be very capable of trading for him if they wanted. Probably close to half the league.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Anaheim
Los Angeles
Seattle
Arizona
Chicago
Columbus
New Jersey
Ottawa
Montreal
Detroit
Buffalo

Then there are teams who are rumored to be making some moves this summer, that could afford him if they wanted to

Vancouver
Calgary can if they do end up losing Gaudreau
Minnesota
Carolina

I'm sure someone will point out why one or two of these are wrong, I'm also sure there would be more than 4 teams in the latter category. Either way, I think you get the gist that over a third of the league would be very capable of trading for him if they wanted. Probably close to half the league.

Hoping Anaheim goes for him, he’d be an ideal fit with zegras or mctavish.

I’d offer our 1st pending lottery, pretty comfortably… assuming a long term contract can be agreed upon.

And if fiala is too expensive for our tastes, I’d hope we kick tires on dumba

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Fiala won't be cheap, but he I think he could be signed to a more reasonable deal than UFAs like Gaudreau or even Forsberg. We see it every year during UFA season.....bidding wars and desperation usually results in teams signing UFAs to inflated values.

Conversely, if the Wild and Fiala can zero in on a team that Fiala is willing to play for long term, they could probably get a deal done at a "reasonable" number (~$7-$8 million AAV). Much more reasonable than what players like Gaudreau and Forsberg are likely to sign for during the silly season.

Best case scenario is that Guerin figures out a way to re-sign Fiala and make this whole discussion moot.

Guadreau is obviously gonna get more, but he's a tier above Fiala. Teams would probably rather pay Gaudreau for 11M instead of Fiala for 8M + giving up a 1st/A prospect.

Same with Forsberg. He will get more money than Fiala, but you're not gonna have to give up a 1st + prospects to sign him.

I think even guys like Burakovsky will be more attractive to teams compared to trading for him. Fiala is obviously a better player than Burakovsky, but is he a 1st + prospect better?

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Which ones?

His EV defensive impacts are rough.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Having to give Fiala a contract is only a problem if one thinks he won't be worth whatever he signs for. Yes, comparable players do become available in free agency, but there are usually more bidders than there are players.

The offer-sheet thing is a red herring. There is virtually no chance that this isn't resolved before July 1st.

It's a problem because you have to give a guy a big contract AND give up assets to do so.

I agree it will likely be resolved before July 1st, but the offer sheet gives other teams a value reference point.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

BECAUSE THOSE PLAYERS HAVE A CHOICE AS TO WHERE THEY PLAY, THAT'S WHY. An RFA does not. The Devils can try to sign Forsberg or Gaudreau but that doesn't mean they want to play there. And Bryan Rust is about to be 30 and has yet to miss fewer than 10 games in a season.

Hagel is making next to nothing but he returned late 1sts and TB also sent 2 young players to Chicago. You're comparing a Toyota Camry to a Rolls Royce.

>BECAUSE THOSE PLAYERS HAVE A CHOICE AS TO WHERE THEY PLAY, THAT'S WHY. An RFA does not. The Devils can try to sign Forsberg or Gaudreau but that doesn't mean they want to play there.

A team isn't trading for him if he's not going to sign with them. Fiala does have a choice. Just like Florida only traded for Reinhart because they knew he was interested in signing with them. Same with Stone and Vegas. Ottawa isn't going to trade for Fiala if he doesn't want to sign there. Same with any other team.

Bryan Rust is a PPG forward though!

> Hagel is making next to nothing but he returned late 1sts and TB also sent 2 young players to Chicago.

Glad you agree that a player's contract is very important in trades.

 

[Bazeek]

It's a problem because you have to give a guy a big contract AND give up assets to do so.

I agree it will likely be resolved before July 1st, but the offer sheet gives other teams a value reference point.

And the other side of that coin is that this isn't a grocery store. There aren't as many 1st line scoring wingers available in free agency as there are teams that want to add those players, see the fit, and are willing to commit the money. Scarcity is an enormous driver for top-of-the-lineup players.

The offer sheet compensation has little bearing if an offer sheet isn't a realistic option. It might act as a starting point for some teams in terms of bids, but that's about it.

 

[Sota Popinski]

>BECAUSE THOSE PLAYERS HAVE A CHOICE AS TO WHERE THEY PLAY, THAT'S WHY. An RFA does not. The Devils can try to sign Forsberg or Gaudreau but that doesn't mean they want to play there.

A team isn't trading for him if he's not going to sign with them. Fiala does have a choice. Just like Florida only traded for Reinhart because they knew he was interested in signing with them. Same with Stone and Vegas. Ottawa isn't going to trade for Fiala if he doesn't want to sign there. Same with any other team.

Bryan Rust is a PPG forward though!

> Hagel is making next to nothing but he returned late 1sts and TB also sent 2 young players to Chicago.

Glad you agree that a player's contract is very important in trades.

Who disputed that the contract is important? Gee, I'm glad we have a cap wizard here. Can't believe you aren't working for an NHL org.

It's hilarious that you differentiate between Gaudreau and Fiala because they are in a different tier, but make no such distinction between 2021 Reinhart and Fiala, Hagel and Fiala or 2021 buchnevich and fiala. The performance of a player only matters when it supports your argument. In Fiala's case, only his hypothetical salary for next year matters

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

His EV defensive impacts are rough.

Yet if you look at the 'against' numbers individually, they're all pretty good, or at least average.

Look at those elite offensive numbers though.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

And the other side of that coin is that this isn't a grocery store. There aren't as many 1st line scoring wingers available in free agency as there are teams that want to add those players, see the fit, and are willing to commit the money. Scarcity is an enormous driver for top-of-the-lineup players.

The offer sheet compensation has little bearing if an offer sheet isn't a realistic option. It might act as a starting point for some teams in terms of bids, but that's about it.

He's a great scoring winger, but there are just way too many factors to justify a huge return. Fiala has to want to sign with the team trading for him. The team has to have cap room to add an 8M winger long term. The team has to be willing to give up their 1st+ to sign him. There are also plenty of other options for those teams in FA.
Offer sheet may be a realistic option if he's not traded before the date. If Guerin has crazy demands like some of the posters here a team might just say hey screw it let's offer sheet him. Teams know he will be a FA next summer if Guerin can't work something out with him. I also don't know how comfortable Guerin is with trading him to an inner division team.

I just don't think there will be a huge list of realistic suitors for him. I think it's gonna come down to a few teams like the Devils & Senators with Guerin just taking the best deal on the table.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Yet if you look at the 'against' numbers individually, they're all pretty good, or at least average.

Look at those elite offensive numbers though.

Yes, he's great offensively.

A player's against numbers still aren't really a great way to see how they are defensively on their own. Like Skinner had decent against numbers last year and everyone thought he magically became a good defensive player. It had way more to do with his linemates in that case. I've never seen anyone try to argue Fiala was a good defensive player though. He's never been a two way guy. Just a really good offensive guy.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Who disputed that the contract is important? Gee, I'm glad we have a cap wizard here. Can't believe you aren't working for an NHL org.

It's hilarious that you differentiate between Gaudreau and Fiala because they are in a different tier, but make no such distinction between 2021 Reinhart and Fiala, Hagel and Fiala or 2021 buchnevich and fiala. The performance of a player only matters when it supports your argument. In Fiala's case, only his hypothetical salary for next year matters

Read some of the comments here and see how many people think that Fiala's contract situation has no impact on his trade value.

I literally said he'd get a little more than Reinhart got. Try reading. Mark Stone was better than Fiala and he got a 2nd + Brannstrom. Everyone seems to ignore that comparison though. I don't think you have any clue of Reinhart's performance in 2021. The guy was good offensively & defensively. It's not just about points.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yes, he's great offensively.

A player's against numbers still aren't really a great way to see how they are defensively on their own. Like Skinner had decent against numbers last year and everyone thought he magically became a good defensive player. It had way more to do with his linemates in that case. I've never seen anyone try to argue Fiala was a good defensive player though. He's never been a two way guy. Just a really good offensive guy.

Yeah, I just have a hard time getting worked up over a scoring winger's defense. And it looks like that is reflected in the chart since a 26 on defense only drops the overall 2 points from offense mark.

I'm also not much of a fan of throwing up a chart and treating it like Gospel, but I get that's the times we're in.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Read some of the comments here and see how many people think that Fiala's contract situation has no impact on his trade value.

I literally said he'd get a little more than Reinhart got. Try reading. Mark Stone was better than Fiala and he got a 2nd + Brannstrom. Everyone seems to ignore that comparison though. I don't think you have any clue of Reinhart's performance in 2021. The guy was good offensively & defensively. It's not just about points.

The difference between Fiala's situation and the Stone/Reinhart situations, is that there wasn't really a 'keep them' option, as there SHOULD be with Fiala. There was no "or else" in Ottawa or Buffalo.

Unless Guerin is just dead set on trading him (which he doesn't have to be), even if he would prefer to, for whatever reason, the choice should be between a) getting 100 cents on the dollar for him vs. b) re-signing him. But letting him go for 60 cents on the dollar like those other teams did with their guys is just bad GM-ing.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Yeah, I just have a hard time getting worked up over a scoring winger's defense. And it looks like that is reflected in the chart since a 26 on defense only drops the overall 2 points from offense mark.

I'm also not much of a fan of throwing up a chart and treating it like Gospel, but I get that's the times we're in.

It's something teams will consider. That's why the Sabres wouldn't be interested in him. We already have too many forwards that aren't good defensively in the lineup.

I'm not treating it like gospel, but it's an excellent resource. No offense, but I trust huge data samples & tested metrics over random fans watching a game. If a guy is good defensively, it will show analytically. Just like Fiala's great offensive game shows up.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

The difference between Fiala's situation and the Stone/Reinhart situations, is that there wasn't really a 'keep them' option, as there SHOULD be with Fiala. There was no "or else" in Ottawa or Buffalo.

Unless Guerin is just dead set on trading him (which he doesn't have to be), even if he would prefer to, for whatever reason, the choice should be between a) getting 100 cents on the dollar for him vs. b) re-signing him. But letting him go for 60 cents on the dollar like those other teams did with their guys is just bad GM-ing.

Is there a 'keep them' option for Fiala? The fanbase and Guerin seem to think differently from all the reports I've seen.

There was a 'keep them' option for Reinhart, but he wanted way more. Something like 8M for 8 years, which we weren't gonna do.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It's something teams will consider. That's why the Sabres wouldn't be interested in him. We already have too many forwards that aren't good defensively in the lineup.

I'm not treating it like gospel, but it's an excellent resource. No offense, but I trust huge data samples & tested metrics over random fans watching a game. If a guy is good defensively, it will show analytically. Just like Fiala's great offensive game shows up.

Except that offense is much easier to quantify on an individual basis than defense is, so no, I probably wouldn't equate the two equally.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Is there a 'keep them' option for Fiala? The fanbase and Guerin seem to think differently from all the reports I've seen.

There was a 'keep them' option for Reinhart, but he wanted way more. Something like 8M for 8 years, which we weren't gonna do.

This is all in theory. There is a actually a pretty good chance that Guerin's mind is already made up, which is depressing as hell, but in theory, there are moves that can easily be made to open up the cap necessary to re-sign him.

So yes, there is a 'keep him' option, but it's anybody's guess as to if Guerin truly wiped that off the board for good last summer.

And Reinhart wanting 8 x $8M is like Fiala wanting 8 x $11M, and I'd be very surprised if that's the case. I think term x $7.5-$8.5M gets it done, and I'd have no issue doing so.