Speculation: Keeping Ck

[bernmeister]

First off, I think he can be signed for $6.5 x 6 years. If he's happy here and wants to be part of the future, they can work something out that's fair for both sides. If his ask is crazy, trade him. As far as if he will hold up, I don't know. It's a risk you take with every contract. But the guy keeps himself in tremendous shape and he'll always be a handful in front of the net. Also, I have absolutely nothing against Buch, he's a good player but with Kravtsov, Kakko and Panarin here, I'd rather see someone like Kreider, if not Kreider, in the top 6. He just gives the them a different look and could make either rookie's transition into the league easier. If they can't make an extra two million a year work until all the bad contracts come off the books in two seasons, I think they kinda screwed up.

I'm still callin 6.2 x 5, which is a bargain term and good price.
It'd be smarter to move Skjei at 5+ to keep Kreider at 6.2

I can't see Kreider coming into camp with out a contract extension.

Hes either traded (most likely) or Buch is traded and Kreider is extended.....

I see a 3rd scenario that let's us keep both, Buch at least for the moment, but Buch should go once there is good enuf bridge deal and he gets great trade value, whether that is now or after solid start to season.

how are you fitting his $6 mil salary? and not needing to protect him in the expansion draft isn't a positive in my books, if I'm dealing kreider I want the return to be around longer than 2 years.

I dont even see how we can keep Kreider for this season, let alone beyond. Where is the cap space for Trouba, Tony D and Buch???

2 moves...
first move
Belesky 1.9 + Smith at half = 2.17ish + Staal!! 2 at 2.85 + Lias Andersson, elc
to Ottawa for
Sharks 2020 1st unprotected [and cap relief]

explain. In theory that is a late pick. We are not giving up the pick, we are giving up that it was a reach at 7OA but not so much at 10-12OA, and assuming SJ does not suffer injury catastrophe collapse, we eat the dif of Lias turning into a producer at that level value vs the gamble of a late 1st.

Sens will likely be stuck with Staal, and prob expiring Belesky, tho he will be busting his butt for a contract, so he may be worth it as a 4th liner to them or somebody.
With our retaining Smith, he can be flipped at 2.17 or retained one more time at a miniscule 1.085ish for a team that suddenly needs grit/enforcer, and they can recover a late mid pick there.

So they get Andy on his second elc to develop into a middle pivot. That works for us b'c we need to get down to an essential, min surplus core, and while we don't want to give Lias away to go there, a later pick plus instant cap relief, including Staal, works.

SECOND
Namest at half, Deangelo + Skjei
to Philly for
Flyers 2020 1st + Nolan Patrick

rationale:
this very second, there is a thread at the big board: "Flyers and Provorov nowhere near close to a contract". There is also speculation that Ghost, who is a high risk-reward style D, maybe somebody that wanna move, or at least now take offers.
AV knows Skjei, and knows he can skate.
Deangelo is an actual righty RD, grew up a flyers fan, has had all his warts removed, and is an rfa who might give them - but not nec us - a break.
Namest at half is okay expiring stopgap.
Remember, they recover this cost when they flip Provorov and Ghost.

Skjei commanded his #. We should not be locked into it for several years. And you have to strike when opportunity allows.
You want to get down to a min core.
The exp draft is in view down the road.
You don't wait until it is tighter and tougher to move guys.

We have 2 guys Hajek [injured] and Lindgren [elected not to burn another elc yr] who look ready, and we will have to protect along w/Trouba. Rykov [no reason to at least be open he can be slowly broken in at 3LD] = starting 3 lefties. Claesson if available, reinforced by Shatty on his off side if nec, and that does not count anyone else who plays his way on or who we pick up.

Also trims the excess of F, while adding 2 picks for 2020!

K2P [KK-Krav-Pan]
speed line Kreider-Nieves-Zib

allows you to push depth down w/
Chytil - Strome - Buch
Lemieux - Howden - Patrick
Fast in reserve

possible deal Strome and Buch, move up Howden/Patrick
insert Fast
Gettinger is a bruising pair w/Lemieux if he is close enough ready.

Conclusion: you are ready for 3 Ds to protect
and I forgot if it is 6 or 7 Fs, but now you are down to
Panarin
Zib
maybe Kreider if not flipped before
Chytil
and a reduced number fighting for those last slots, making it easier to do best possible fit.

 

[GAGLine]

And the majority of them are unrealistic. There is no reason for any other team to take on Namestnikov or Shattenkirk with the league wide cap crunch going on and buying out Staal or Smith is a horrible idea. We would be out from under those contracts in time for any potential big extensions, any dead cap beyond 2021 is so unnecessary

Except if we can't trade Kreider for a decent return, and we can't move Names or Shatty, a buyout will be necessary. The clock is ticking. Once Trouba and Buch are signed, the buyout window will open 3 days later. Buch will be signed by the 29th at the latest, Trouba by the 25th, so the latest the window will open is August 1st. We then have 48 hours to complete buyouts. So at the absolute latest, if we don't trade people by August 3rd, there will be buyouts. The penalties in years 3 and 4 aren't that bad for any of Shatty, Staal or Smith, 1.433 mil at most. That won't make a difference in us being able to re-sign Kakko and Kravtsov. If it does, it shouldn't be a big deal to find that space. We currently have a little over 25 mil committed in 2021, so it seems a bit premature to predict that 1.433 mil will cause an issue. Even with the cap being flat until the new TV deals are signed, it's still likely to go up more than 1.433 in the next 3 years.

 

[Seanharold]

I'm still callin 6.2 x 5, which is a bargain term and good price.

2 moves...
first move
Belesky 1.9 + Smith at half = 2.17ish + Staal!! 2 at 2.85 + Lias Andersson, elc
to Ottawa for
Sharks 2020 1st unprotected [and cap relief]

explain. In theory that is a late pick. We are not giving up the pick, we are giving up that it was a reach at 7OA but not so much at 10-12OA, and assuming SJ does not suffer injury catastrophe collapse, we eat the dif of Lias turning into a producer at that level value vs the gamble of a late 1st.

Sens will likely be stuck with Staal, and prob expiring Belesky, tho he will be busting his butt for a contract, so he may be worth it as a 4th liner to them or somebody.
With our retaining Smith, he can be flipped at 2.17 or retained one more time at a miniscule 1.085ish for a team that suddenly needs grit/enforcer, and they can recover a late mid pick there.

So they get Andy on his second elc to develop into a middle pivot. That works for us b'c we need to get down to an essential, min surplus core, and while we don't want to give Lias away to go there, a later pick plus instant cap relief, including Staal, works.

why on earth would ottawa take 3 plugs and an unproven prospect for a late first round pick?

 

[BroadwayStorm]

I'm still callin 6.2 x 5, which is a bargain term and good price.
It'd be smarter to move Skjei at 5+ to keep Kreider at 6.2



I see a 3rd scenario that let's us keep both, Buch at least for the moment, but Buch should go once there is good enuf bridge deal and he gets great trade value, whether that is now or after solid start to season.





2 moves...
first move
Belesky 1.9 + Smith at half = 2.17ish + Staal!! 2 at 2.85 + Lias Andersson, elc
to Ottawa for
Sharks 2020 1st unprotected [and cap relief]

explain. In theory that is a late pick. We are not giving up the pick, we are giving up that it was a reach at 7OA but not so much at 10-12OA, and assuming SJ does not suffer injury catastrophe collapse, we eat the dif of Lias turning into a producer at that level value vs the gamble of a late 1st.

Sens will likely be stuck with Staal, and prob expiring Belesky, tho he will be busting his butt for a contract, so he may be worth it as a 4th liner to them or somebody.
With our retaining Smith, he can be flipped at 2.17 or retained one more time at a miniscule 1.085ish for a team that suddenly needs grit/enforcer, and they can recover a late mid pick there.

So they get Andy on his second elc to develop into a middle pivot. That works for us b'c we need to get down to an essential, min surplus core, and while we don't want to give Lias away to go there, a later pick plus instant cap relief, including Staal, works.

SECOND
Namest at half, Deangelo + Skjei
to Philly for
Flyers 2020 1st + Nolan Patrick

rationale:
this very second, there is a thread at the big board: "Flyers and Provorov nowhere near close to a contract". There is also speculation that Ghost, who is a high risk-reward style D, maybe somebody that wanna move, or at least now take offers.
AV knows Skjei, and knows he can skate.
Deangelo is an actual righty RD, grew up a flyers fan, has had all his warts removed, and is an rfa who might give them - but not nec us - a break.
Namest at half is okay expiring stopgap.
Remember, they recover this cost when they flip Provorov and Ghost.

Skjei commanded his #. We should not be locked into it for several years. And you have to strike when opportunity allows.
You want to get down to a min core.
The exp draft is in view down the road.
You don't wait until it is tighter and tougher to move guys.

We have 2 guys Hajek [injured] and Lindgren [elected not to burn another elc yr] who look ready, and we will have to protect along w/Trouba. Rykov [no reason to at least be open he can be slowly broken in at 3LD] = starting 3 lefties. Claesson if available, reinforced by Shatty on his off side if nec, and that does not count anyone else who plays his way on or who we pick up.

Also trims the excess of F, while adding 2 picks for 2020!

K2P [KK-Krav-Pan]
speed line Kreider-Nieves-Zib

allows you to push depth down w/
Chytil - Strome - Buch
Lemieux - Howden - Patrick
Fast in reserve

possible deal Strome and Buch, move up Howden/Patrick
insert Fast
Gettinger is a bruising pair w/Lemieux if he is close enough ready.

Conclusion: you are ready for 3 Ds to protect
and I forgot if it is 6 or 7 Fs, but now you are down to
Panarin
Zib
maybe Kreider if not flipped before
Chytil
and a reduced number fighting for those last slots, making it easier to do best possible fit.

This is one of the worst trade proposals I have ever seen. It makes no sense for the Senators. And very little for the Flyers.
When will people understand that Andersson has literally little trade value and is considered a bust by most outside the organization?
Also, I f***ing laughed at not just getting a first for those two mediocre to ok defensemen but also Nolan Patrick. Within the division too. LMFAO.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I’m no cap scientist , if we manage to trade Names for futures , and bury/buyout Smith, would we have enough cap to keep CK and sign our RFAs?

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I’m no cap scientist , if we manage to trade Names for futures , and bury/buyout Smith, would we have enough cap to keep CK and sign our RFAs?

That should suffice, if the RFAs sign cheap. Burying Smith would still leave us with a cap hit of 3.275M so we can't do that. It's trade or buyout with Smith.

You're actually talking about next season here. It will surely not be enough for next off-season.

 

[bernmeister]

why on earth would ottawa take 3 plugs and an unproven prospect for a late first round pick?

because this is a prospect who is NOT bust material, not yet anyway, and was a high selection [granted a reach, but many scouts had this guy around 12OA, some earlier, a few a couple later; this guy is regarded as a safe pick], and the surrender would be very late pick, so there is significant value gain.

We took Lias over Chytil b'c we thought he was safer pick; before we had Chytil as a value gamble later and he seems so far to be a keeper, and before other developments.

The fact he is surplus for us is not a negative, but an opportunity for Sens.

Sure there is a scenario where the martians kidnap Sharks 5 best guys and they are a lottery, but realistic $ is they are in it for another late shot.

If Sharks win it all at 31, that is a full 2 dozen slots dif [31-7 =24] on value. Even pushing back Lias as an overreach from 7OA to 10, and saying SJ comes up short, that is still a significant dif.

Andersson could regress and still bust, but that is unlikely.
There is a reason this kid was deemed such a safe pick.
He's cut his teeth as a boy among men in Sweden.
While he like 95+% of newcomers has to get his shot up to NHL calibre, other than his skating, he is otherwise fully acceptable as satisfactory for a rookie for performance across the board.

There is no guarantee this barrel chested youth turns into best case scenario another Mark Messier, who was a much better shooter and could actually dominate. I would say there is an extremely remote outside chance this guy, who is not a poor man's Messier, but maybe a destitute man's possible Messier, reaches that bar. But to be far, that is an extremely high bar. I currently project easy 3C at min, good likelihood for 2C, outside possible 1C potential if the top pivot is not an elite/star guy.

Okay, so we fessed up to the glaring issue.
Skating.
For all but the last 3 wks of the season, Lias' skating was an abortion. It took him that long to figure out skating at NHL level. There is still room for improvement today. He will never be Nieves/Kreider good a skater, and even today, it is not pretty. But he has figured out the footwork to be able to get from A to B, significantly reducing +/- negatives.

A lot of rookies need to make such an adjustment. Most are not high profile enuf for it to be a big deal, and by year 2 or so they have it figured out or they are buh-bye, and as such quietly disappear.

An illustration of my point is Leon Draisatil. His first 2 months were awful, skating in his case the ONLY reason. Once he was 2/3s or so into his season, he had it figured, and with all his other tools, emerged nicely. Of course LeoDrai is WAY above LiaAndy talent wise, but the parallel is apt.

Now if all things were =, and there was no pressure, I would say play Andersson at 3W w/Chytil and Buch and once he blossoms, if we need room, we sell him at a higher return since he is a more finished product.

But either we move Kreider, which is not smart to do now, better to retain CK 4-5 yrs, and if nec move THEN. either that OR we move a bunch of guys now.

Andersson is not in that bunch of guys. He is entering 2nd yr elc. These are guys you otherwise need to finance Panarin + Trouba.

However, if he is the sweetener to take some cap dumps, if they are short term, then it makes sense for Ott to take him on vs a severely less valuable late pick. And it makes sense for Rangers, who need to get down to a trimmed core. Lias immediately is middle pivot pushing for 2C. Has the motor, which is good for team hustle. He is available NOW. A late pick is no better guarantee, and this is a guy who is not selected til next year's upcoming draft, and is then very likely to be 2 or so yrs min before showing up to contribute. He helps Sens immediately.

And as to the dumps, like I said, Belesky will bust butt, even if you retain, tho I don't see that as automatic, and you will move him for a 6th or so w/out retention. Of course, that is to a team that has had some injuries and needs stopgap. Rangers can't do that now b'c that scenario has not yet unfolded, and they need to move now.

Smith is no bargain, but since Rangers eat half, he is hell of a lot more attractive at 2.17 and as I exampled, could be made available at half of that - like 1.8 ish. Do a swap of cap dumps.
Smith at 1.8 for Holden at 2.2 expiring AND SWEETENER
or
Smith at 1.8 for Holden at 2.2 expiring + Merrill with BIGGER sweetener.

Staal, at half, you're stuck with.

But at half = 2.85 x 2 that is still reasonable price to pay to get Andersson vs a late 1st.

 

[bernmeister]

This is one of the worst trade proposals I have ever seen. It makes no sense for the Senators. And very little for the Flyers.
When will people understand that Andersson has literally little trade value and is considered a bust by most outside the organization?
Also, I ****ing laughed at not just getting a first for those two mediocre to ok defensemen but also Nolan Patrick. Within the division too. LMFAO.

Makes a lot of sense for Sens.
For all the reasons I took pains to specify, which you choose to reject -- as is your right -- but without any analysis whatsoever, only an ad hominum conclusion.

It also makes sense for Flyers, in the immediate circumstances.
You completely ignore that team and ..."Provorov nowhere near close to a contract".
And I get feeling as much as AV might like to see what he can get out of Ghost, who is high risk, high reward style, if enough on the table, they sell high on him too, before his stock goes down.
Dealing Prov sends a message to the rest of the team, that there is room for negotiation, but if you play hardball too hard, your sorry ass can be shown to the back door.

These are not mediocre guys. They are solidly ok at min. and while uneven for reasons including partners, etc., have not always starred, have been successful.
I'd bet AV remembers how good Skjei was and at the right price takes him.

And Deangelo has fully arrived, and more more fully blossom going forward. Don't take my word for it, get input from others at this board.

Bottom line is I prefer Kreider at 6ish vs Skjei at 5+. Deangelo is sweetener. Namest at half is a stopgap, if you don't want him for that, I'll get another taker. There are rumblings that while minimally productive, Patrick has also been underwhelming for his 2OA selected status. They have enough cap atm, and will recover assets when they flip Ghost and Pro.

As to your error on Lias Andersson, please refer to my above post. You completely ignored reality of significant development very late in the season as to getting skating worked out. That is huge. Andersson is not a Poolparty type who has had multiple seasons and a hip injury and may indeed be headed to bust. If Andersson started out as a great skater, and then regressed, I get the argument. But as it is the exact opposite, your point is invalid.

 

[LORDE]

I am all for starting the season with him.

I think he will increase his trade value by playing with the talent we have in this top 6. That is my belief.

I would rather move him at the deadline.

If he plays, injuries WILL occur with him... they always do. That's my fear with waiting.

 

[NYRangers0723]

It’s not the NFL. If he’s still on the roster then he’ll be there.

Unless you mean on the teams side of things... in which case you might be disappointed. I do not see him being resigned regardless and if they are fielding garbage offers then they may have to wait it out.

It sounds like they tried and failed to land a 2019 first at the draft. I’m not sold on anyone giving up a 2020 1st prior to the start of the season.

agreed. I want to keep kreider unless we are blown away by a trade offer and he wants a big contract. Although im starting to fear we will trade him for pennies on the dollar just because we are stuck with some bad contracts

 

[JC704]

Feels like Kreider is more valuable for the upcoming season than others.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Feels like Kreider is more valuable for the upcoming season than others.

The only thing that matters this upcoming season is the development and progress of the kids. Kreider needs to be moved.

 

[JC704]

The only thing that matters this upcoming season is the development and progress of the kids. Kreider needs to be moved.

You know what else helps young players? Having them play with established vets

 

[FIRE DRURY]

You know what else helps young players? Having them play with established vets

Staal.
Shatty.
Smith.
Skjei.*

Zbad
Panarin
Buch*
Fast
Strome
Namestnikov

Lundqvist

We have a ton of youth, but there are some vets here too.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

You know what else helps young players? Having them play with established vets

You know what else helps young players? Having enough money to re-sign them all in a few years.

 

[Larrybiv]

agreed. I want to keep kreider unless we are blown away by a trade offer and he wants a big contract. Although im starting to fear we will trade him for pennies on the dollar just because we are stuck with some bad contracts

I am not so sold on the idea that bad contracts have anything to do with keeping or trading Kreids. Either they WANT him, or they DON'T. Meaning, is he worth the price and term or not. I think its as simple as that. Waiting would be a huge mistake. There has to be many offers, Gorts should be able to get what he is asking for. We are NOT forced to trading him. There IS that. Their move.
Or, just extend him and make him a VERY happy Ranger. A good thing.

 

[True Blue]

The only thing that matters this upcoming season is the development and progress of the kids. Kreider needs to be moved.

How is Kreider a detriment to that? That makes him sound like Shattenkirk.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

How is Kreider a detriment to that? That makes him sound like Shattenkirk.

Moving Kreider means we're avoiding a long term contract that'll handicap us in the future. It also opens up a spot for a youngster. I'd rather see someone like Kakko, Kravtsov or Chytil with that ice time.

Let's not forget that moving him will also get us another asset that can potentially help us in the future.

 

[Kovalev27]

Having CK stapled to his side all year will help Chytil develop as a 2C more than anything else

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Having CK stapled to his side all year will help Chytil develop as a 2C more than anything else

If you're concerned about Chytil's development as a 2C, then Panarin is who you want on his side. Not Kreider.

 

[MetalJaws]

Anyone think Kreider would take a Eberle like contract ($5.5 mil per) to stay in NY and be a part of the upcoming awesomeness? Maybe pick Kreider over Shatty and move him at the deadline instead or before?

That way Names and Smith moved this off season can account for Trouba, ADA, Buch and Lemmy.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Anyone think Kreider would take a Eberle like contract ($5.5 mil per) to stay in NY and be a part of the upcoming awesomeness? Maybe pick Kreider over Shatty and move him at the deadline instead or before?

That way Names and Smith moved this off season can account for Trouba, ADA, Buch and Lemmy.

I don't see CK turning down 2M a season for the next 7 season's. I could be wrong, but that's a lot of money. I can definitely see him getting 7.5 X 7 next summer. With a fancy NMC.

 

[GordonGecko]

man, the going rate for UFAs has really jumped lately

 

[MetalJaws]

I don't see CK turning down 2M a season for the next 7 season's. I could be wrong, but that's a lot of money. I can definitely see him getting 7.5 X 7 next summer. With a fancy NMC.

Sucks, that's too steep a price. Fingers crossed I guess.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

man, the going rate for UFAs has really jumped lately

So has the cap though.