Kadri player discssion thread.

[Gallagbi]

So Kessel didn't have a slump that lasted a quarter of the season?

Has anyone said otherwise?

 

[IBeL34f]

Kessel put up 3 goals and 9 assists for 12 points in his last 20 games of the season. Bozak put up 6 goals and 4 assists for 10 points in those same 20 games. JVR put up 5 goals and 5 assists for 10 points in those same 20 games. Kadri put up 4 goals and 5 assists for 9 points in his last 20 games.

All our players sucked down the stretch, what point exactly is supposed to be made with this 20-game stuff? Jake Gardiner, actually, was probably the most important offensive player in those 20 games, putting up 9 points himself.

Interesting to note, 3 of Kessel's 12 points, 4 of Bozak's 10, and 3 of JVR's 10, came in one game against the Senators.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I wasn't comparing Bozak's stats over the last 5 years. I was saying he had 49 points on what is essentially the same Leaf team as it is this year. Minus Kessel of course.

Folks say that Bozak benefited from Kessel. Kessel had 3 goals in the last 20 games of the season. Are we saying that's a benefit? That Boyes can't produce 3 goals in 20 games?

So Bozak didn't benefit from Kessel? Ok then, I guess we should expect 49 points from him again this season.

 

[Kurtz]

I wasn't comparing Bozak's stats over the last 5 years. I was saying he had 49 points on what is essentially the same Leaf team as it is this year. Minus Kessel of course.

Folks say that Bozak benefited from Kessel. Kessel had 3 goals in the last 20 games of the season. Are we saying that's a benefit? That Boyes can't produce 3 goals in 20 games?

And yet Kessel still had more points than Bozak over that stretch.

You don't understand. Kessel wasn't just out best scorer, he was our best playmaker. He fed Bozak on tons of goals and scoring chances that should have been goals. Bozak was like the baby bird to Phil's momma bird.

Make no mistake about it, without Kessel, Bozak will be lucky to break 30 points. We should try to trade him immediately and desperately before teams figure it out and we're stuck with another anchor contract.

Nice shoot-out skills though.

 

[Pookie]

And Kessel not being here is a massive blow to the team's offensive production rates.

And yes, Bozak still owed most of his point totals last year to Kessel. I expect him to only be able to put up 35-38 points this season playing with Lupul instead. Kadri's first line isn't as good as what Bozak was gifted.

Hold on.

The argument being used here is that Kadri is hands down better than Bozak. Possession, whatever… numbers are thrown out here that supposedly definitively "prove" Kadri is better than Bozak.

Correct?

Then JVR-Bozak-Kessel isn't that much different than JVR-Kadri-Boyes. JVR is the constant.

Kadri is supposedly an upgrade over Bozak so that makes the line better but we are left with a Kessel vs Boyes. Kessel is clearly the better player but how much better will a slumping Kessel be? Slumping Kessel with Bozak got Bozak 49 points.

You've got one upgrade and one downgrade.

They don't cancel each other out but the difference between lines isn't massive, especially if he is as good as the stats supposedly show him to be.

The second argument being spun here is that Kadri produced with inferior line mates. Forget what Bozak did if we get stuck on that. Kadri put up 39 points in a season where he wasn't committed, had bad line mates and not as much ice time. And someone even ventured into the idea that Kadri put up his numbers against TOUGHER competition than the number 1 line. I don't buy it but hey, he had stats so go with it if you want.

Regardless, this year, relative to Kadri's last season:

- better line mates
- more ice time including PP
- more committed
- and he isn't currently suspended by the league or the team

… and we don't expect him to put up as much as he did 2 seasons ago?? (50 points)

C'mon. Pick a side of the fence here.

Either all this "evidence" suggests he's the 1C or not. Back your guy. Don't make excuses for him.

 

[Pookie]

So Bozak didn't benefit from Kessel? Ok then, I guess we should expect 49 points from him again this season.

Sure he did. And if Kessel didn't slump, Bozak would likely have had more than 49 points.

Gary, you don't expect a new and improved Kadri with more ice time, better line mates and a more committed outlook to produce more points than he did 2 years ago on the 2nd and 3rd line?

Strange.

 

[Pookie]

Make no mistake about it, without Kessel, Bozak will be lucky to break 30 points. We should try to trade him immediately and desperately before teams figure it out and we're stuck with another anchor contract.

Agree. He isn't part of the future and they should move him at max value… which is likely the deadline.

No argument from me here. I'm not a fan of either player being our 1C when the team is going to be good in 4-5 years.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Hold on.

The argument being used here is that Kadri is hands down better than Bozak. Possession, whatever… numbers are thrown out here that supposedly definitively "prove" Kadri is better than Bozak.

Correct?

Then JVR-Bozak-Kessel isn't that much different than JVR-Kadri-Boyes. JVR is the constant.

Kadri is supposedly an upgrade over Bozak so that makes the line better but we are left with a Kessel vs Boyes. Kessel is clearly the better player but how much better will a slumping Kessel be? Slumping Kessel with Bozak got Bozak 49 points.

You've got one upgrade and one downgrade.

They don't cancel each other out but the difference between lines isn't massive, especially if he is as good as the stats supposedly show him to be.

The second argument being spun here is that Kadri produced with inferior line mates. Forget what Bozak did if we get stuck on that. Kadri put up 39 points in a season where he wasn't committed, had bad line mates and not as much ice time. And someone even ventured into the idea that Kadri put up his numbers against TOUGHER competition than the number 1 line. I don't buy it but hey, he had stats so go with it if you want.

Regardless, this year, relative to Kadri's last season:

- better line mates
- more ice time including PP
- more committed
- and he isn't currently suspended by the league or the team

… and we don't expect him to put up as much as he did 2 seasons ago?? (50 points)

C'mon. Pick a side of the fence here.

Either all this "evidence" suggests he's the 1C or not. Back your guy. Don't make excuses for him.

... So if the argument is that Boyes = a struggling Kessel?

If so, that means Bozak produced at a 0.5 PPG pace in those 20 games - an adjusted 41 points over a full season to make this situations comparables. Because Bozak got his 39 of his points with an elite playmaking, high scoring Kessel .. Which is far surperior than who Kadri will be playing with. So Kadri at 50 points with a "struggling Kessel" type player is an upgrade offensively.

My expectation for Kadri is 50-55 points offensively .. But more importantly I expect much improved play away from the puck, a better 200 foot game, and improved face-offs. If he does all the above plus score that many points, that will be a very good season in my books

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sure he did. And if Kessel didn't slump, Bozak would likely have had more than 49 points.

Gary, you don't expect a new and improved Kadri with more ice time, better line mates and a more committed outlook to produce more points than he did 2 years ago on the 2nd and 3rd line?

Strange.

I said I predict approx. 55 points for Kadri. Two years ago he got 50.

55 > 50 would you agree?

I'm not hung up on points like some people though, there's much more to player evaluation than points. I have said I believe he will have a great year and be re-signed for a long-term deal at 5.5-6m per year. If that happens, it will mean Babs is happy with him and so is our management team. That's good enough for me regardless of point production. And this would make you look extremely silly as you are on record saying Kadri's value is "a bag of pucks".

Is that clear enough for you?

 

[Pookie]

My expectation for Kadri is 50-55 points offensively .. But more importantly I expect much improved play away from the puck, a better 200 foot game, and improved face-offs. If he does all the above plus score that many points, that will be a very good season in my books

That's fine all those things are important.

Just to be clear though, we are saying that with more ice time, more opportunity, a better work ethic/attitude, 2 years more experience, and better line mates than he had 2 years ago… that you expect him to put up around the same production that he had 2 seasons ago.

Arguably, similar production he had last season as well since his 39 points came in a year in which his choices on and off the ice earned him suspensions and took away playing time. He maybe could have been on 45-50?

I just see that as sandbagging IF your prognosis is that he is a bonafide 1C.

 

[Menzinger]

Hold on.

The argument being used here is that Kadri is hands down better than Bozak. Possession, whatever… numbers are thrown out here that supposedly definitively "prove" Kadri is better than Bozak.

Correct?

Then JVR-Bozak-Kessel isn't that much different than JVR-Kadri-Kessel. JVR is the constant. Kadri is supposedly an upgrade over Bozak and we are left with a slumping Kessel vs Boyes. Kessel is clearly the better player but how much better will a slumping Kessel be? You've got one upgrade and one downgrade.

They don't cancel each other out but the difference between lines isn't massive, especially if he is as good as the stats supposedly show him to be.

The second argument being spun here is that Kadri produced with inferior line mates. Forget what Bozak did if we get stuck on that. Kadri put up 39 points in a season where he wasn't committed, had bad line mates and not as much ice time. And someone even ventured into the idea that Kadri put up his numbers against TOUGHER competition than the number 1 line.

So this year, relative to his last season:

- better line mates
- more ice time including PP
- more committed

… and we don't expect him to put up as much as he did 2 seasons ago?? (50 points)

C'mon. Pick a side of the fence here.

Either all this "evidence" suggests he's the 1C or not. Back your guy. Don't make excuses for him.

I never said he will produce less than 50 points nor have I ever considered him to be elite or a true #1 centre. Kadri is an above average #2 centre and I expect his production to meet that. I think he'll put up around 50-60 points.

I also think you're really underplaying the impact that switching Boyes for Kessel will make. Especially considering that I think JVR received a considerable offensive bump from being alongside Lessel - I doubt JVR even manages to repeat his career high of 60 points this season.

 

[TLeafsFan]

We won't know what kadri is until the end of this season. If he holds 1C and Babcock's praise, that's what he'll be with the point totals to match.

If he doesn't, he trade fodder.

Personally I believe he'll prove up to the task.

 

[Pookie]

I said I predict approx. 55 points for Kadri. Two years ago he got 50.

55 > 50 would you agree?

I'm not hung up on points like some people though, there's much more to player evaluation than points. I have said I believe he will have a great year and be re-signed for a long-term deal at 5.5-6m per year. If that happens, it will mean Babs is happy with him and so is our management team. That's good enough for me regardless of point production. And this would make you look extremely silly as you are on record saying Kadri's value is "a bag of pucks".

Is that clear enough for you?

Well if you want to be clear, what I actually said was the same as you:

You said:
If that happens, it will mean Babs is happy with him and so is our management team. That's good enough for me regardless of point production.

I said:

I'm hoping he performs well. It's sets up a trade nicely. But if he performs well and management has been convinced he has committed to an improved off ice thing… well then that's good for the team.

Since you are a fan of context and truth… I'm surprised that you went to the bag of pucks part and but missed the point where I said:

If he flops on and off the ice… well, his trade value is right where it is right now…. that proverbial "bag of pucks."

He's got high trade value now at this exact moment does he Gary?

 

[BertCorbeau]

That's fine all those things are important.

Just to be clear though, we are saying that with more ice time, more opportunity, a better work ethic/attitude, 2 years more experience, and better line mates than he had 2 years ago… that you expect him to put up around the same production that he had 2 seasons ago.

Arguably, similar production he had last season as well since his 39 points came in a year in which his choices on and off the ice earned him suspensions and took away playing time. He maybe could have been on 45-50?

I just see that as sandbagging IF your prognosis is that he is a bonafide 1C.

Same production in a worse line up, where he's expected to play more important minutes against tougher competition. Those are important factors in the point totals.

I've never said he's a bonafide #1C though, I've always seen him as a #2C and hopefully a good #2 centre if so. This puts a cap on his offensive abilities in my opinion, which is why I want to see him be better defensively and on the dot because his ability to play a complete game as a #2 centre is more valuable than just scoring points.

 

[Gallagbi]

That's fine all those things are important.

Just to be clear though, we are saying that with more ice time, more opportunity, a better work ethic/attitude, 2 years more experience, and better line mates than he had 2 years ago… that you expect him to put up around the same production that he had 2 seasons ago.

Arguably, similar production he had last season as well since his 39 points came in a year in which his choices on and off the ice earned him suspensions and took away playing time. He maybe could have been on 45-50?

I just see that as sandbagging IF your prognosis is that he is a bonafide 1C.

Few, if any, have claimed him to be an ideal #1C. Most feel he's capable of being a good 2C and has been the teams best center the past few years.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well if you want to be clear, what I actually said was the same as you:



Since you are a fan of context and truth… I'm surprised that you went to the bag of pucks part and but missed the point where I said:



He's got high trade value now at this exact moment does he Gary?

Higher than a bag of pucks, yes.
Higher than Bozak, yes.

You asked me for my projections, I gave them to you. Now it's your turn:

How many points do you think Kadri will score this year?
How many points do you think Bozak will score this year?

 

[Pookie]

I never said he will produce less than 50 points nor have I ever considered him to be elite or a true #1 centre. Kadri is an above average #2 centre and I expect his production to meet that. I think he'll put up around 50-60 points.

I also think you're really underplaying the impact that switching Boyes for Kessel will make. Especially considering that I think JVR received a considerable offensive bump from being alongside Lessel - I doubt JVR even manages to repeat his career high of 60 points this season.

That's fine. I too think he is a 2C. We still need to keep searching for a 1C.

Let me ask you this. JVR got a bump playing with Kessel. That's fine. Shouldn't we assume though that if some of these Kadri stats guys are correct, that JVR-Kadri will be better for JVR than JVR-Bozak?

People focus on Boyes-Kessel but if Kadri really is the better Centre, then that isn't a full step backwards.

Just seems like some are lining up the excuses before the season begins. Maybe not you… but pick a theory and go with it.

Better player, more ice time, more opportunity, better attitude… 60 should be a target if all these things are true.

Sort of a like when a sales manager comes to me asking for resources. So you give them resources based on the potential that they say they can go out and get. A few weeks later, you give them a target commensurate with the investment and the opportunity and they give you every reason under the sun why he doesn't think he can make his number.

 

[Pookie]

Higher than a bag of pucks, yes.
Higher than Bozak, yes.

You asked me for my projections, I gave them to you. Now it's your turn:

How many points do you think Kadri will score this year?
How many points do you think Bozak will score this year?

Bozak? Don't care. I would trade him tomorrow. He's probably a 30-35 point guy if he stays where he is. More if Kadri fails and he gets moved back up.

Kadri? I don't think he is a bonafide 1C. 45 would be my expectation if he stays where he is and I would move him at the deadline based on his contract status and off ice risk history.

Neither would be in my future plan.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Bozak? Don't care. I would trade him tomorrow. He's probably a 30-35 point guy if he stays where he is. More if Kadri fails and he gets moved back up.

Kadri? I don't think he is a bonafide 1C. 45 would be my expectation if he stays where he is and I would move him at the deadline based on his contract status and off ice risk history.

Neither would be in my future plan.

LOL again with that bonafide #1C strawman.

What is it with you and strawmen anyway?

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Hold on.

The argument being used here is that Kadri is hands down better than Bozak. Possession, whatever… numbers are thrown out here that supposedly definitively "prove" Kadri is better than Bozak.

Correct?

Then JVR-Bozak-Kessel isn't that much different than JVR-Kadri-Boyes. JVR is the constant.

Kadri is supposedly an upgrade over Bozak so that makes the line better but we are left with a Kessel vs Boyes. Kessel is clearly the better player but how much better will a slumping Kessel be? Slumping Kessel with Bozak got Bozak 49 points.

You've got one upgrade and one downgrade.

They don't cancel each other out but the difference between lines isn't massive, especially if he is as good as the stats supposedly show him to be.

The second argument being spun here is that Kadri produced with inferior line mates. Forget what Bozak did if we get stuck on that. Kadri put up 39 points in a season where he wasn't committed, had bad line mates and not as much ice time. And someone even ventured into the idea that Kadri put up his numbers against TOUGHER competition than the number 1 line. I don't buy it but hey, he had stats so go with it if you want.

Regardless, this year, relative to Kadri's last season:

- better line mates
- more ice time including PP
- more committed
- and he isn't currently suspended by the league or the team

… and we don't expect him to put up as much as he did 2 seasons ago?? (50 points)

C'mon. Pick a side of the fence here.

Either all this "evidence" suggests he's the 1C or not. Back your guy. Don't make excuses for him.

Kadri is better then Bozak.
Kessel-Bozak is MUCH better than Kadri-Boyes. This isn't a attack on Kadri, but more a testimony to how good kessel is (top 5 rw in the league good).

 

[TLeafsFan]

Kadri is better then Bozak.
Kessel-Bozak is MUCH better than Kadri-Boyes. This isn't a attack on Kadri, but more a testimony to how good kessel is (top 5 rw in the league good).

Depends on how much they get scored against compared to the goals they score while on the ice together as to who ends up better overall.

It isn't JUST about putting it in the net.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Depends on how much they get scored against compared to the goals they score while on the ice together as to who ends up better overall.

It isn't JUST about putting it in the net.

True! IMO Kessel/Bozak is still better than Kadri/Boyes but the gap in overall value is much less than the gap if only point production is considered.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

I just hope Kadri improved his skating, faceoffs, and defensive IQ.

The offence is there and will always be there because he has the skills to produce good numbers but Babcock will expect a 200ft game.

 

[TLeafsFan]

True! IMO Kessel/Bozak is still better than Kadri/Boyes but the gap in overall value is much less than the gap if only point production is considered.

Although to be fair, we don't have the slightest idea what we have in Kadri and Boyes yet.

We do know Babcock's system is taking hold during camp, preseason losses aside...

Look at that CF%!

 

[91Kadri91*]

And someone even ventured into the idea that Kadri put up his numbers against TOUGHER competition than the number 1 line. I don't buy it but hey, he had stats so go with it if you want.

To be clear, I said that Kadri played the most difficult competition (which he did: 50.9 OppGF%), not that it was meaningful (which I don't believe QoC is over a large sample, since the difference between the levels of competition of different players is negligible).