Kadri player discssion thread.

[Pookie]

What are your projections and why?

Except for last year which we know was based on the team quitting, how many points with Bozak as the center did the 1st. line usually get?

Do you believe Kadri is dramatically better than Bozak?

Is van Riemsdyk, now a year older and more experienced not better than he was last year? He has averaged 58.5 points the last 2 seasons (with Bozak).

Boyes has won the top winger position beside Kadri, and Babcock put him there, so if Babcock is making merit decisions, we have to go with Boyes being the best at that position.

Kadri had 50 points 2 years ago, playing with inferior players.

Are you suggesting Kadri isn't going to score more points than 2 years ago?

You don't seem to have very much confidence in Kadri if you don't think he's going to be better at 25, than he was at 23.

You win but you might get offered salt

Kadri has his chance. If he has as good and as committed as some say he is, then he will shine.

And despite that shine, he's still a massive gamble with the history of off ice concerns that have been the thread of his tenure here.

I'm hoping he performs well. It's sets up a trade nicely. But if he performs well and management has been convinced he has committed to an improved off ice thing… well then that's good for the team.

If he flops on and off the ice… well, his trade value is right where it is right now…. that proverbial "bag of pucks." There is no downside to this move. If anything, it may also showcase Bozak to the league's trade markets in a better light as well by playing in a more defensive role against less talented lines.

 

[Mess]

In a year the team quit.

2014-2015 - van Riemsdyk-Bozak-Kessel: 166 points

I'm talking total points for the 3, Crosby had 84 points alone.

Last year was the 1st. in 3 years, Kessel wasn't near PPG (3 previous years he averaged over PPG).

Kadri & JVR should pile up 3 vs 3 points to add to the lines total.

3 vs 3 in the preseason recorded wins > 80% as opposed to ~ 40% last year 4 vs 4 before heading to the SH. OT goals and assists count and SO don't so NHL scoring overall will go up.

Babcock with Lemaire will attempt to coach close games but that should result in potential tied games at 60 minutes.

Also Leafs power play units featuring 4 forwards and 1 Defenceman PP#1:. JVR-Kadri-Parenteau-Boyes-Phaneuf.

 

[Pookie]

Kadri & JVR should pile up 3 vs 3 points to add to the lines total.

3 vs 3 in the preseason recorded wins > 80% as opposed to ~ 40% last year 4 vs 4 before heading to the SH. OT goals and assists count and SO don't so NHL scoring overall will go up.

Babcock with Lemaire will attempt to coach close games but that should result in potential tied games at 60 minutes.

Yep. We're gonna win… 2-1. I look forward to many naps along the way.

 

[Gallagbi]

Kadri & JVR should pile up 3 vs 3 points to add to the lines total.

3 vs 3 in the preseason recorded wins > 80% as opposed to ~ 40% last year 4 vs 4 before heading to the SH. OT goals and assists count and SO don't so NHL scoring overall will go up.

Babcock with Lemaire will attempt to coach close games but that should result in potential tied games at 60 minutes.

Also Leafs power play units featuring 4 forwards and 1 Defenceman PP#1:. JVR-Kadri-Parenteau-Boyes-Phaneuf.

Leafs had what, 10 shootout games last year? They're a bad team, so we can expect them to lose more than half of the 3on3 OTs, so you're looking at 3-4 potential goals spread across a couple of lines.

 

[Duke Silver]

I'm glad we can both finally agree not to expect elite level production.. Finally.

Except that was never the point, just your distortion.

 

[Mess]

Yep. We're gonna win… 2-1. I look forward to many naps along the way.

Thanks to Mike Babcock, the Maple Leafs will make the largest season-to-season jump in possession metrics. The Leafs finished 4th-worst in possession indicators last season, according to war-on-ice.com.

More than anything else, the Leafs are betting on Babcock because his teams have dominated the ‘Analytics Era’ NHL like few teams ever have before. Detroit had the single-best shot differential (54.6 per cent), the second-best scoring chance differential (54.0 per cent), and the fourth-best goal differential (53.2 per cent). Babcock took the talent provided to him by management and molded them into a 5-on-5 ES juggernaut. Detroit has had a strong PP% 2nd best in 2014-15 which will increase offense.

If you have the puck more you potentially score more and your opponent scores potentially less without it. That means less goals against and potential more goals for = closer games and increased offensive #'s with more shots and more scoring changes to win close games.

This bodes well for the Leafs #1C to increase their offense totals as Kadri heads into a contract year.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yep. We're gonna win… 2-1. I look forward to many naps along the way.

2-1 wins are fine.

Seriously, style or entertainment factor don't mean much if you are losing.

The Leafs played run and gun hockey the last 8 years and won nothing. That style never works in the playoffs.

We need to play strong defensively and as we get more talent on the roster we will score more goals.

 

[Pookie]

Thanks to Mike Babcock, the Maple Leafs will make the largest season-to-season jump in possession metrics. The Leafs finished 4th-worst in possession indicators last season, according to war-on-ice.com.

More than anything else, the Leafs are betting on Babcock because his teams have dominated the ‘Analytics Era’ NHL like few teams ever have before. Detroit had the single-best shot differential (54.6 per cent), the second-best scoring chance differential (54.0 per cent), and the fourth-best goal differential (53.2 per cent). Babcock took the talent provided to him by management and molded them into a 5-on-5 ES juggernaut. Detroit has had a strong PP% 2nd best in 2014-15 which will increase offense.

If you have the puck more you potentially score more and your opponent scores potentially less without it. That means less goals against and potential more goals for = closer games and increased offensive #'s with more shots and more scoring changes to win close games.

Yeah, this possession debate again.

Babcock may have a system but over his tenure, Detroit also had:

- 3 Selke trophies (Datsyuk)
- 4 Norris trophies (Lidstrom)
- 1 Conn Smythe (Zetterberg)
- 1 Messier Leadership Award (Chelios)
- 1 Plus-Minus award (Datsyuk)
- 1 Jennings Trophies (Osgood, Hasek)


… the difference in talent is clear. You say he took the talent and molded them but let's agree that he had some pretty impressive talent to work with. Something that the Leafs do not have.

Most teams have similar systems, it's the players and their commitment/skill level that separates the teams. Babcock is good but he's not a magician. The players are what they are and last year they were basically a team of soft, quitters.

Let's see what happens.

 

[Pookie]

2-1 wins are fine.

Seriously, style or entertainment factor don't mean much if you are losing.

The Leafs played run and gun hockey the last 8 years and won nothing. That style never works in the playoffs.

We need to play strong defensively and as we get more talent on the roster we will score more goals.

Oh it absolutely works. This is the idea behind the trap. You can keep games close if you don't give up chances. Playing Keep Away is just another way to do it.

This is also what the NHL wants. Parity. Keep games close. Keep the standings close too… give points for losing games. Reward the tie in regulation.

It's also contributing to what many are seeing… along with collapse the net defending, goalies wearing mattresses, shin pads the size of fire hydrants… boring hockey.

Entertainment may not matter but I'm not paying $200 a seat to sit through that. We are opting for more OHL games this year where there is more passion and creativity.

 

[Duckrider]

I'm glad we can both finally agree not to expect elite level production.. Finally.

I sure don't know where this elite mind set has come from... Kadri has great hands, good vision. I see him as a JT light. He just started training the right way this summer for the first time. He is still a work in progress. But still a very good hockey player.

As for how many points will he get....a lot of that depends on how well the team and his line mates buy into Bobcocks system. Its a team sport.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Oh it absolutely works. This is the idea behind the trap. You can keep games close if you don't give up chances. Playing Keep Away is just another way to do it.

This is also what the NHL wants. Parity. Keep games close. Keep the standings close too… give points for losing games. Reward the tie in regulation.

It's also contributing to what many are seeing… along with collapse the net defending, goalies wearing mattresses, shin pads the size of fire hydrants… boring hockey.

Entertainment may not matter but I'm not paying $200 a seat to sit through that. We are opting for more OHL games this year where there is more passion and creativity.

I will be making my way to the Ricoh a lot this year to see our youngsters develop.

That being said, and I have said this in some other threads, I think the talent level is getting ridiculously high now in the NHL. I think 4th lines have a lot more talented players on them then ever before. There is a lot of NHL talent sitting overseas in the KHL or SHL, along with some guys who are likely ready to make the jump from the AHL.

If/when the NHL expands, it could help water the talent down a bit, which could allow for superstars to take advantage of moments when they are out against inferior talent and that way we can avoid silly things like an 87 point Art Ross winner.

The NHL should be stricter with the NHL goalie equipment - have a league official inspect the goalie before the game and make sure they are conforming to standards. I don't think a larger rink is the answer, it is quite the opposite. Equipment changes to goalies may be neccessary now. I also think we need to be stern with what is and is not a penalty. I don't want to see a rise in diving, but I do want the clutching and grabbing to be called as it should be.

 

[WilliamNylander]

Going to project Naz at 25g 35a for 60p this year.

Think he will have a good year on a team that struggles to score, and will keep the 1C job this season.

 

[Mess]

Going to project Naz at 25g 35a for 60p this year.

Think he will have a good year on a team that struggles to score, and will keep the 1C job this season.

I can see Kadri and JVR competing for the Leafs scorer leader and that final total being around 60 points.

 

[Paradoc]

Going to project Naz at 25g 35a for 60p this year.

Think he will have a good year on a team that struggles to score, and will keep the 1C job this season.

I going to go with him getting 50 points. He's going to create a lot of scoring chances, but I think with the linemates he'll play with will have trouble scoring.

25 goals, 25 assists for 50 points.

 

[RLF]

From what I saw this pre-season...he earned the right to start on the first line. I will guess if he stays dedicated to improving his overall game...55pt range.

 

[Pookie]

I going to go with him getting 50 points. He's going to create a lot of scoring chances, but I think with the linemates he'll play with will have trouble scoring.

25 goals, 25 assists for 50 points.

I don't get this. He had 50 points two seasons ago playing with inferior line mates. We have been hearing all along that he needs better line mates. So, now he's got that. An upgrade.

He's 2 years further along in his development. He should also get power play time.

Better line mates. 2 years older. More ice time.

Why are we sandbagging his numbers?

 

[Gary Nylund]

What are your projections and why?

Except for last year which we know was based on the team quitting, how many points with Bozak as the center did the 1st. line usually get?

Do you believe Kadri is dramatically better than Bozak?

Is van Riemsdyk, now a year older and more experienced not better than he was last year? He has averaged 58.5 points the last 2 seasons (with Bozak).

Boyes has won the top winger position beside Kadri, and Babcock put him there, so if Babcock is making merit decisions, we have to go with Boyes being the best at that position.

Kadri had 50 points 2 years ago, playing with inferior players.

Are you suggesting Kadri isn't going to score more points than 2 years ago?

You don't seem to have very much confidence in Kadri if you don't think he's going to be better at 25, than he was at 23.

It's hard for me to take you seriously when you mention that JVR should be better this year than last but in this lengthy post you don't even mention Kessel. If you really don't understand that having journeyman Boyes instead of Kessel as a 1st line winger is likely to have a huge negative effect on point production than I don't even know that to say to you. Not to mention that Babcock won't allow players to ignore defence in order to score (like last season) so that will affect production as well. It seems that you don't like Kadri so you're setting unreasonably high expectations for him so that you claim he had a bad year when those expectations aren't met.

What are my projections? Kadri will have a great season and will be signed to a 5 year deal for 5.5-6m a year. He will be be one of the top 2 in points on the team (with JVR). The point total itself isn't all that important as there are many variables we can't account for at the moment, if I had to guess I'd say maybe approx. 55 for both him and JVR.

Kadri & JVR should pile up 3 vs 3 points to add to the lines total.

3 vs 3 in the preseason recorded wins > 80% as opposed to ~ 40% last year 4 vs 4 before heading to the SH. OT goals and assists count and SO don't so NHL scoring overall will go up.

Babcock with Lemaire will attempt to coach close games but that should result in potential tied games at 60 minutes.

Also Leafs power play units featuring 4 forwards and 1 Defenceman PP#1:. JVR-Kadri-Parenteau-Boyes-Phaneuf.

See the post below.

Leafs had what, 10 shootout games last year? They're a bad team, so we can expect them to lose more than half of the 3on3 OTs, so you're looking at 3-4 potential goals spread across a couple of lines.

And I can't be bothered to look it up but I'm guessing they scored a goal or two in OT last year 4on4 so this projected increase from last season is maybe 2 goals spread over a couple of lines - almost nothing.

Pile up the points?

 

[Mess]

I don't get this. He had 50 points two seasons ago playing with inferior line mates. We have been hearing all along that he needs better line mates. So, now he's got that. An upgrade.

He's 2 years along in his development. He should get power play time.

Better line mates. 2 years old. More ice time.

Why are we sandbagging his numbers?

Quality of competition.

When you move up the depth chart you play against the oppositions best players and defenders.

In the past Kadri was the #2C and the JVR- Bozak- Kessel trio drew the opposing coaches attentions to shut them down.

Without Kessel the focus on JVR/Kadri as the top line weapons will be even greater than when Phil drew the coverage.

We are about to see how well Kadri does when the game plan and focus is on shutting Leafs top line down.

Specialty team play and how well he is able to produce will be huge.

 

[Gallagbi]

I don't get this. He had 50 points two seasons ago playing with inferior line mates. We have been hearing all along that he needs better line mates. So, now he's got that. An upgrade.

He's 2 years further along in his development. He should also get power play time.

Better line mates. 2 years older. More ice time.

Why are we sandbagging his numbers?

Are Boyes and JVR much better than Lupul and Raymond were 2 years ago? No doubt that Kessel and JVR were much better, but downgrading from Kessel to Boyes is a big drop.

As for PP time, his line that year was very productive, so I wouldn't expect a huge jump there. Especially since he'll get an extra PP shift or so per game compared to that year.

~55 points seems logical given the situation.

 

[diceman934]

I predict that Kadri will lead the team in scoring with JVR next. I also can see a big gap between them and the next forward in scoring. A D man is likely to finish 3rd in scoring and maybe two D man in the top 5.

Kadri 24 goals and 38 assists for 62 points.
JVR 31 goals and 23 assists for 54 points.
Rielly 7 goals and 34 assists for 41 points
Gardiner 10 goals and 26 assists for 36 points.

Who the 3rd highest forward is in scoring I'm not sure of, but I say it is around a 35 point season.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't get this. He had 50 points two seasons ago playing with inferior line mates. We have been hearing all along that he needs better line mates. So, now he's got that. An upgrade.

He's 2 years further along in his development. He should also get power play time.

Better line mates. 2 years older. More ice time.

Why are we sandbagging his numbers?

Well, aside from the league wide trend that scoring levels are decreasing (ie Kessel only hitting 60 points last season), now Akashi will be facing the league's top shutdown lines - he'll be playing against the Toews of the league. Boyes isn't going to be much help either

I'll be surprised if any forward on the team has more than 60 points.

 

[Menzinger]

van Riemsdyk - Kadri - Boyes

Should get about 170 points combined.

60+60+50

2015-2016 van Riemdsyk > 2014-2015 van Riemsdyk
2015-2016 Kadri = 2014-2015 Kessel
2015-2016 Boyes >= 2014-2015 Bozak

Boyes on the 1st. line this year, so Babcock thinks he's a 1st. liner.

Not much different talent wise between Tavares and Kadri, so projection might be low. 36 year old, broken down Datsyuk, had 65 points in 63 games, playing on Babcock's team, so Babcock doesn't stop players from scoring points. If you don't score it isn't due to the Babcock system.

If we use the 48 game schedule as indicative of Kadri's abilities (and let's not forget he's 25 now, not a kid/prospect) he could easily approach 70+ points.

Let's just hope he doesn't bring his A game or those high draft picks could be a thing of the past.

I have no idea how you can expect a PTO signing to get 50 points.

Just because Babcock puts him on the first line doesn't make him a first liner. It means the Leafs as a whole are so terrible they have to spread out whatever little skill they have. Babcock likely thinks putting Boyes beside JVR/Kessel will mitigate his impact.

He'll hopefully hit 30ish points.

 

[ULF_55]

Are Boyes and JVR much better than Lupul and Raymond were 2 years ago? No doubt that Kessel and JVR were much better, but downgrading from Kessel to Boyes is a big drop.

As for PP time, his line that year was very productive, so I wouldn't expect a huge jump there. Especially since he'll get an extra PP shift or so per game compared to that year.

~55 points seems logical given the situation.

Kadri will get 1st. PP minutes, and will likely start the 3v3 games. They had what, 13 overtime games this year.

60 points isn't that much more than 55, and Kadri had 50 as a 23 year old, not getting 1st. PP time.

He was on a 75 point pace as a 22 year old.

Why does 60 points seem out of the question to some?

 

[ULF_55]

I don't get this. He had 50 points two seasons ago playing with inferior line mates. We have been hearing all along that he needs better line mates. So, now he's got that. An upgrade.

He's 2 years further along in his development. He should also get power play time.

Better line mates. 2 years older. More ice time.

Why are we sandbagging his numbers?

We aren't suggesting he hit Kessel's PPG season prior to last year, while playing with Bozak as his center.

Everything points to a career year, with every opportunity to be the best he can.

Boyes is at least a 3rd. liner, the same as Bozak.

No idea why 60 points should be considered extremely reasonable, we'd expect Kessel to get 80 points with van Riemsdyk and Bozak, like he did prior to last year.

 

[Community]

Kadri and JVR should be around 60pts

Sad thing is that I think the next 3 players could very well be defensemen (Rielly, Gardiner, and Phaneuf).

PAP, Mathias,Holland, Bozak, and Boyes should be around 25-40pts I would guess.

Lupul could be anywhere from 30-60 pts IMHO.


What's gonna be really depressing is after the TDL when Kadri and JVR will have no secondary support and the difference between their point totals and the next highest forward on the team at the end of the year could easily be over 30pts.