Kadri player discssion thread.

[Menzinger]

Kadri will get 1st. PP minutes, and will likely start the 3v3 games. They had what, 13 overtime games this year.

60 points isn't that much more than 55, and Kadri had 50 as a 23 year old, not getting 1st. PP time.

He was on a 75 point pace as a 22 year old.

Why does 60 points seem out of the question to some?

It's not out of the question - I just think it's unlikely.

Kadri was able to hit 50 points when the team had a lot more scoring depth - ie the Kessel/JVR pairing drew the other teams top pairing defensemen and best shutdown centres. Leaving Kadri the space he needed to put up points.

On today's Leafs all the other teams defensive attention will be focused on Kadri and HVR - I doubt they consider Lupul/Bozak to be much of a significant threat.

Plus, it's a league where the top scorer in the League only put up 87 points last year. The 60 point mark is a lot harder than it used to be to get to.

Kadri has then skill to likely hit 60 on a decent team, unfortunately he plays for one of the league's worst.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I see the Leafs lack of offensive depth being a problem for Kadri being able to break 60 points myself.

Additionally, while he'll get more minutes and more PP time, the 5 on 5 game will be shifted from a run and gun style to a more possession based game. Adjustments will need to be made and the point totals won't be as high.

 

[Community]

It's not out of the question - I just think it's unlikely.

Kadri was able to hit 50 points when the team had a lot more scoring depth - ie the Kessel/JVR pairing drew the other teams top pairing defensemen and best shutdown centres. Leaving Kadri te space he needed to put up points.

On today's Leafs all the other teams defensive attention will be focused on Kadri and zjVR - I doubt they consider Lupul/Bozak to be much of a significant threat.

Plus, it's a league where the top scorer in the League only put up 87 points last year. The 60 point mark is a lot harder than it used to be to get to.

Kadri has then skill to likely hit 60 on a decent team, unfortunately he plays for one of the league's worst.

He will also be playing on the 1st PP unit which I actually think is more beneficial than the benefit of playing on the 2nd line for 5 vs. 5. However, if Kadri hits 50+ I will consider it good season and I'd hope the Leafs do as well (and re-sign him long-term).

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

I'm sure you will.

If he's winning 46% of his faceoffs it will hurt.

He'll wind up being a #1 center with favourable zone starts cuz Babcock won't have him lining up to the dot in his own zone with that FO%.

Toronto needs to improve defensively and starting off with possession in your own zone would certainly help.

 

[Gallagbi]

Kadri will get 1st. PP minutes, and will likely start the 3v3 games. They had what, 13 overtime games this year.

He was about a shift away from 1st line PP minutes that season with fantastic production he won't be able to replicate.

Like I said in an earlier post, OT will equate to very few additional points.

60 points isn't that much more than 55, and Kadri had 50 as a 23 year old, not getting 1st. PP time.

On a higher scoring team with similar line mates and he won't be getting many more PP chances. 60 points wouldn't amaze me, but it's not what I'd predict.

He was on a 75 point pace as a 22 year old.

Do you honestly believe he's a 75+ point player right now?

 

[Mess]

Kadri will get 1st. PP minutes, and will likely start the 3v3 games. They had what, 13 overtime games this year.

60 points isn't that much more than 55, and Kadri had 50 as a 23 year old, not getting 1st. PP time.

He was on a 75 point pace as a 22 year old.

Why does 60 points seem out of the question to some?

I expect the Leafs to be behind in games and Babcock to shorten the bench and I wouldn't be surprised to see JVR - Kadri -- Lupul take the ice together.

Also offensive zone starts should increase for Kadri now as #1C instead of in the past Leafs top line getting sent out for an offensive zone face-off favouring Bozak.

Babcock/Hiller PP in Detroit was #2 overall and Leafs PP% last year was 4th worst. Babcock's team scored 70 PP GF last year = +10 more than any other team and +25 more goals than the Leafs.

If you increase PP% effectiveness from one of the worst you should expect your PP#1 players including your #1C to increase his specialty teams points. 4 fowards and 1 D in the PP = > goals.

 

[Menzinger]

If he's winning 46% of his faceoffs it will hurt.

He'll wind up being a #1 center with favourable zone starts cuz Babcock won't have him lining up to the dot in his own zone with that FO%.

Toronto needs to improve defensively and starting off with possession in your own zone would certainly help.

Funny enough it's been shown that face off wins don't have a huge influence on overall team possession numbers.

That's not to say winning them is irrelevant but what really matters is what happens after - ie if you lack the ability to keep the puck in the zone (or exit it) winning a faceoff doesn't really matter.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Funny enough it's been shown that face off wins don't have a huge influence on overall team possession numbers.

That's not to say winning them is irrelevant but what really matters is what happens after - ie if you lack the ability to keep the puck in the zone (or exit it) winning a faceoff doesn't really matter.

Kadri's has also gradually improved his face off numbers since he's become a full time NHLer each season.

I expect him to be around 48-50% this year if he continue the trend

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Funny enough it's been shown that face off wins don't have a huge influence on overall team possession numbers.

That's not to say winning them is irrelevant but what really matters is what happens after - ie if you lack the ability to keep the puck in the zone (or exit it) winning a faceoff doesn't really matter.

Can you provide the data?

Obviously lots goes into maintaining possession but winning a faceoff is a good start.

 

[Pookie]

Quality of competition.

When you move up the depth chart you play against the oppositions best players and defenders.

In the past Kadri was the #2C and the JVR- Bozak- Kessel trio drew the opposing coaches attentions to shut them down.

Without Kessel the focus on JVR/Kadri as the top line weapons will be even greater than when Phil drew the coverage.

We are about to see how well Kadri does when the game plan and focus is on shutting Leafs top line down.

Specialty team play and how well he is able to produce will be huge.

Well, what's good production for a 1C? 50 points?

If that is the role some are saying he deserves, he should be on par with production at the 1C level shouldn't' he?

Bozak put up 49 a couple of years running and look at the treatment he gets. Surely, with all this discourse we can expect Kadri to put up more points than Bozak shouldn't we?

 

[Paradoc]

I don't get this. He had 50 points two seasons ago playing with inferior line mates. We have been hearing all along that he needs better line mates. So, now he's got that. An upgrade.

He's 2 years further along in his development. He should also get power play time.

Better line mates. 2 years older. More ice time.

Why are we sandbagging his numbers?

Quality of competition.

When you move up the depth chart you play against the oppositions best players and defenders.

In the past Kadri was the #2C and the JVR- Bozak- Kessel trio drew the opposing coaches attentions to shut them down.

Without Kessel the focus on JVR/Kadri as the top line weapons will be even greater than when Phil drew the coverage.

We are about to see how well Kadri does when the game plan and focus is on shutting Leafs top line down.

Specialty team play and how well he is able to produce will be huge.

Are Boyes and JVR much better than Lupul and Raymond were 2 years ago? No doubt that Kessel and JVR were much better, but downgrading from Kessel to Boyes is a big drop.

As for PP time, his line that year was very productive, so I wouldn't expect a huge jump there. Especially since he'll get an extra PP shift or so per game compared to that year.

~55 points seems logical given the situation.

You said exactly what I was going to say but in more detail.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well, what's good production for a 1C? 50 points?

If that is the role some are saying he deserves, he should be on par with production at the 1C level shouldn't' he?

Bozak put up 49 a couple of years running and look at the treatment he gets. Surely, with all this discourse we can expect Kadri to put up more points than Bozak shouldn't we?

If Bozak was the #1C with JVR and Boyes as his wingers how many points do you think he'd get this year?

Context. It's a thing.

 

[Purity*]

Well, what's good production for a 1C? 50 points?

If that is the role some are saying he deserves, he should be on par with production at the 1C level shouldn't' he?

Bozak put up 49 a couple of years running and look at the treatment he gets. Surely, with all this discourse we can expect Kadri to put up more points than Bozak shouldn't we?

Well you see, there's this guy named Phil Kessel who was our leading scorer for 6 years in a row. He happened to be not only our leading scorer and main offensive catalyst, but also Tyler Bozak's most common linemate.

It's so funny how you're trying to push every possible scenario on Kadri to try and make him look like a failure no matter what. You're far more interested in seeing him fail rather than any search for truth whatsoever.

 

[Pookie]

If Bozak was the #1C with JVR and Boyes as his wingers how many points do you think he'd get this year?

Context. It's a thing.

You mean like how Kessel had just 3 goals in 20 games to close out last season? That thing?

Bozak should send him a thank you card.

 

[Pookie]

Well you see, there's this guy named Phil Kessel who was our leading scorer for 6 years in a row. He happened to be not only our leading scorer and main offensive catalyst, but also Tyler Bozak's most common linemate.

It's so funny how you're trying to push every possible scenario on Kadri to try and make him look like a failure no matter what. You're far more interested in seeing him fail rather than any search for truth whatsoever.

See above.

In your "truth" searching are you saying that Kessel helped pad Bozak's stats last year? Really?

Kessel's worst production and virtually non existent contribution to Goals For in the last 20 games of the season (he had 3 goals). Playing against top line competition… that helped Bozak put up more points than Kadri?

 

[IBeL34f]

Ah, HF Boards.

Where everything's made up and the context don't matter.

 

[91Kadri91*]

See above.

In your "truth" searching are you saying that Kessel helped pad Bozak's stats last year? Really?

Kessel's worst production and virtually non existent contribution to Goals For in the last 20 games of the season (he had 3 goals). Playing against top line competition… that helped Bozak put up more points than Kadri?

Not that QoC means much over a large sample, but Kadri actually played the toughest competition among Leafs forwards last season.

 

[BertCorbeau]

See above.

In your "truth" searching are you saying that Kessel helped pad Bozak's stats last year? Really?

Kessel's worst production and virtually non existent contribution to Goals For in the last 20 games of the season (he had 3 goals). Playing against top line competition… that helped Bozak put up more points than Kadri?

Kessel helped pad Bozak's stats for the last 5 years .. Using the final 20 games of last season trying to state otherwise is disingenuous to the argument.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You mean like how Kessel had just 3 goals in 20 games to close out last season? That thing?

Bozak should send him a thank you card.

Was Kessel only Bozak's winger for 20 games or are you cherry-picking to avoid context?

I think we all know the answer to that one.

 

[Pookie]

Kessel helped pad Bozak's stats for the last 5 years .. Using the final 20 games of last season trying to state otherwise is disingenuous to the argument.

I wasn't comparing Bozak's stats over the last 5 years. I was saying he had 49 points on what is essentially the same Leaf team as it is this year. Minus Kessel of course.

Folks say that Bozak benefited from Kessel. Kessel had 3 goals in the last 20 games of the season. Are we saying that's a benefit? That Boyes can't produce 3 goals in 20 games?

 

[diceman934]

We will see just how much Kessel helped Bozak this year....

 

[Pookie]

Was Kessel only Bozak's winger for 20 games or are you cherry-picking to avoid context?

I think we all know the answer to that one.

So Kessel didn't have a slump that lasted a quarter of the season?

 

[Pookie]

Not that QoC means much over a large sample, but Kadri actually played the toughest competition among Leafs forwards last season.

Hey, that's fine.

If true, its another reason not to sandbag his projection.

 

[TMLegend]

Even though I dislike Nazem Kadri sometimes I really hope he breaks out and has a magnificent year. It's all about the crest on the sweater, not the names on the back, and I'm cheering for wins, and Kadri producing well would help procure some wins.

 

[Menzinger]

I wasn't comparing Bozak's stats over the last 5 years. I was saying he had 49 points on what is essentially the same Leaf team as it is this year. Minus Kessel of course.

Folks say that Bozak benefited from Kessel. Kessel had 3 goals in the last 20 games of the season. Are we saying that's a benefit? That Boyes can't produce 3 goals in 20 games?

And Kessel not being here is a massive blow to the team's offensive production rates.

And yes, Bozak still owed most of his point totals last year to Kessel. I expect him to only be able to put up 35-38 points this season playing with Lupul instead. Kadri's first line isn't as good as what Bozak was gifted.