Player Discussion Kaapo Kakko

[TheDirtyH]

Nichushkin scores points in the NHL. He's close to a PPG player in his last 82 games.

Good underlying numbers definitely follow Kakko around, and I have a great deal of respect for that, but if you do that and score at a 4th line rate, you're a 4th liner.

Nichuskin went back to Russia bc he couldn't score for shit, then went 0-10-10 in 57 games at 23.

 

[Machinehead]

Nichuskin went back to Russia bc he couldn't score for shit, then went 0-10-10 in 57 games at 23.

And now he's good at scoring. Kakko has to step up and prove he can score at this level or he's going to keep ending up back in the bottom six where he belongs right now. A career arc like Nichushkin's is the exception.

 

[BLOCKERSAVE]

Whats our record since Kokko got injured?

 

[FlyguyOX]

Nichushkin scores points in the NHL. He's close to a PPG player in his last 82 games.

Good underlying numbers definitely follow Kakko around, and I have a great deal of respect for that, but if you do that and score at a 4th line rate, you're a 4th liner.

Follow Nichushkin's career path. Great underlying numbers. Finally gets confidence of a coaching staff in playing him top 6 and/or PP and he becomes a rockstar play-driving complementary wing.

The point of underlying numbers is that over a large enough sample, the actual numbers will reflect those.

And now he's good at scoring. Kakko has to step up and prove he can score at this level or he's going to keep ending up back in the bottom six where he belongs right now. A career arc like Nichushkin's is the exception.

A secret about player scoring is it's mainly a function of usage.

Whats our record since Kokko got injured?

4-3, average of 4 GA in those games

 

[Machinehead]

Follow Nichushkin's career path. Great underlying numbers. Finally gets confidence of a coaching staff in playing him top 6 and/or PP and he becomes a rockstar play-driving complementary wing.

The point of underlying numbers is that over a large enough sample, the actual numbers will reflect those.


A secret about player scoring is it's mainly a function of usage.

Kakko has had plenty of opportunities. Only four Rangers forwards played more last year.

 

[Machinehead]

You talk about underlying numbers; this is an underlying number - Kakko tanks this line's goal-scoring over 600 minutes. I just wouldn't do this line anymore, because Kreider and Zibanejad together aren't that good at generating possession anymore, but that's neither here nor there. They score with everyone but Kakko.

People always want to give him opportunities. It's hard to give him opportunities when your top offensive players score less when he's on the ice with them.

 

[ecemleafs]

how long is he out?

 

[NYR Viper]

Kakko does things that support a certain playing style. He can hang onto the puck and suck defenders to him which means if his linemates can find holes, he can normally get them the puck in high danger situations. The other thing he does well is retrieve and intercept pucks all over the ice but he isn't really a guy you want lugging the puck up the ice so when those changes of possession are made, he needs an option or two of guys who can support that play. Kreider is 100% NOT that player. Chytil is a good example of someone who should and has worked well with him.

 

[Larrybiv]

You seem mad because of some perceived slight. You were condescending when responding to Viper and you're condescending to me. You've been that way since these boards began so good on ya!

Anyways, like I said, in the end I agree he's likely a middle six player. In 20 games this year he's actually, offensively, producing worse than his age 18-20 seasons.

Well, there's no way that he's "regressed" as a player, its a matter of "whom" he's playing with. I believe Chytil will adjust and succeed with whomever he plays with (eventually),
Laffy seems to be advancing and doing well on his own "away from" Chytil and KK.
I firmly believe that KK was the one player that NEEDS those 2 more than they need him. Again, its just a feeling I have, that because he is "lonely" (no fellow fins) the ONE thing he counted on was playing with his kiddie peers. @will1066 mentioned the ping pong thing we all saw. It's like your "best friend" is there, but you can't play with him.

 

[TheDirtyH]

And now he's good at scoring. Kakko has to step up and prove he can score at this level or he's going to keep ending up back in the bottom six where he belongs right now. A career arc like Nichushkin's is the exception.

yeah I don't have a horse in this race, just making the point that Nichuskin being a PPG player at 28 doesn't disqualify the comp between him at 22 (out of the league and a year out from a 0 goal season) and Kakko at 22. It was probably the poster's point.

I don't see it with Kakko in NY personally. I think he could easily still breakout offensively in a huge way, but it's not happening here. He doesn't fit with Mika and Kreider, he's not getting on the PP before they retire: it's a bad fit for him to be anything more than a good checking middle six winger.

 

[bigdog16]

Follow Nichushkin's career path. Great underlying numbers. Finally gets confidence of a coaching staff in playing him top 6 and/or PP and he becomes a rockstar play-driving complementary wing.

The point of underlying numbers is that over a large enough sample, the actual numbers will reflect those.


A secret about player scoring is it's mainly a function of usage.


4-3, average of 4 GA in those games

Kakko has had more than enough chances under multiple coaches

 

[Harbour Dog]

I have a very difficult time imagining Kakko being out of the league anytime in his 20s.

Kakko-Zibanejad-Kreider were getting a lot of their ice time against top lines. Outscoring top lines 2-1 while shooting 4% over 12 games(? - don't remember how long they were together), would be a huge contributor to winning playoff games. And 4% is not sustainable for any line in the league, much less one with Kreider and Zibanejad on it.

Even if that 2-1 was 4 goals to 2; that's holding dangerous opponents to 2 goals over a long stretch of games. We could use some of that low-event hockey right now.

 

[Machinehead]

yeah I don't have a horse in this race, just making the point that Nichuskin being a PPG player at 28 doesn't disqualify the comp between him at 22 (out of the league and a year out from a 0 goal season) and Kakko at 22. It was probably the poster's point.

I don't see it with Kakko in NY personally. I think he could easily still breakout offensively in a huge way, but it's not happening here. He doesn't fit with Mika and Kreider, he's not getting on the PP before they retire: it's a bad fit for him to be anything more than a good checking middle six winger.

I don't think we necessarily disagree. I'm not in any way disqualifying Kakko from being good the rest of his career.

That being said, just because there are similarities to Nichushkin at 22, doesn't mean Kakko becomes Nichushkin at 28.

My main thing is, if a team were interested in him and we had a chance to make this roster better right now, I would jump at that opportunity.

 

[Psycho for Perreault]

Whats our record since Kokko got injured?

They won't answer because it doesn't fit the narrative.

View attachment 783277

Is that 5v5 or all situations? Either way the fact that he is significantly better away from Mika and Kreider has to be part of how you use this data. Both those guys have been first liners for years. Kakko is only .2 worse without them. When he is without them, that means Bonino. That's a bigger downgrade than what they get.

 

[Machinehead]

They won't answer because it doesn't fit the narrative.


Is that 5v5 or all situations? Either way the fact that he is significantly better away from Mika and Kreider has to be part of how you use this data. Both those guys have been first liners for years. Kakko is only .2 worse without them. When he is without them, that means Bonino. That's a bigger downgrade than what they get.

This is the last three years so Bonino isn't really a factor.

 

[Machinehead]

In his last three games, Shesterkin has an .838 save percentage. They're all losses.

I'm sure that has nothing to do with it and losing because we don't have Kakko.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I don't think we necessarily disagree. I'm not in any way disqualifying Kakko from being good the rest of his career.

That being said, just because there are similarities to Nichushkin at 22, doesn't mean Kakko becomes Nichushkin at 28.

My main thing is, if a team were interested in him and we had a chance to make this roster better right now, I would jump at that opportunity.

Same.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

In his last three games, Shesterkin has an .838 save percentage. They're all losses.

I'm sure that has nothing to do with it and losing because we don't have Kakko.

Not to mention, Brodzinski doubled Kakkos offensive output for the season in just 6 games since being called up to essentially play in his spot.

3 wins in each of the games he put up points, including that huge PP goal to put them up by 2 against a very good Kings team. It works both ways

Kakko's presence is definitely missed defensively, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

 

[bhamill]

Nichushkin scores points in the NHL. He's close to a PPG player in his last 82 games.

Good underlying numbers definitely follow Kakko around, and I have a great deal of respect for that, but if you do that and score at a 4th line rate, you're a 4th liner.

But he didn't start scoring close to that rate till he was a good bit older than Kakko. He is 28 (almost 29) right now. Kakko is still 22. (almost 23)
In his D+4 Kakko scored 40 in 82.
In his D+4 Nichushkin scored 10 in 52... though his D+1 was bit better than Kakkos and his D+3 rate was a little less than Kakko's. His D+2 was only 10 games so pretty useless.
Do I think Kakko will be close to PPG? Probably not but 60-70 is certainly not out of the question for a kid who scored 40 5v5 points at 21-22.
Dallas gave up on Nichushkin after his bad D+4... I bet they regret that now.

 

[bhamill]

Not to mention, Brodzinski doubled Kakkos offensive output for the season in just 6 games since being called up to essentially play in his spot.

3 wins in each of the games he put up points, including that huge PP goal to put them up by 2 against a very good Kings team. It works both ways

Kakko's presence is definitely missed defensively, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

Yeah, but Brodz isn't anything more than a passenger for the most part. Mika and Kreider have been scoring and pretty much whoever was in that spot was going to get points from that. I'm not trying to bag on Brodz, he isn't dragging them down, but neither was Kakko. They were just awful 5v5. Now they are less awful.

 

[bhamill]

yeah I don't have a horse in this race, just making the point that Nichuskin being a PPG player at 28 doesn't disqualify the comp between him at 22 (out of the league and a year out from a 0 goal season) and Kakko at 22. It was probably the poster's point.

I don't see it with Kakko in NY personally. I think he could easily still breakout offensively in a huge way, but it's not happening here. He doesn't fit with Mika and Kreider, he's not getting on the PP before they retire: it's a bad fit for him to be anything more than a good checking middle six winger.

I think when Kakko and Chytil are back, putting Kakko, Chytil and Cuylle together might be the move. There's no way last year was Kakko's "career year" at 21-22. That would be a huge outlier as far as how players develop in this league. It's far more likely that he ends up at least a 60 point player in his prime.

 

[Machinehead]

But he didn't start scoring close to that rate till he was a good bit older than Kakko. He is 28 (almost 29) right now. Kakko is still 22. (almost 23)
In his D+4 Kakko scored 40 in 82.
In his D+4 Nichushkin scored 10 in 52... though his D+1 was bit better than Kakkos and his D+3 rate was a little less than Kakko's. His D+2 was only 10 games so pretty useless.
Do I think Kakko will be close to PPG? Probably not but 60-70 is certainly not out of the question for a kid who scored 40 5v5 points at 21-22.
Dallas gave up on Nichushkin after his bad D+4... I bet they regret that now.

The poster I replied to said "I compare him to Valeri Nichushkin."

There's currently no basis for that. For every guy that turned around their career like Nuchishkin did, there's 20 that never figured it out. He could just as easily be Puljujarvi who had a similar profile and is still a 4th liner at 25.

 

[bhamill]

The poster I replied to said "I compare him to Valeri Nichushkin."

There's currently no basis for that. For every guy that turned around their career like Nuchishkin did, there's 20 that never figured it out. He could just as easily be Puljujarvi who had a similar profile and is still a 4th liner at 25.

I think there is a basis, Nichushkin's numbers weren't bad until his big down D+4 season of 10 points. After that season he resumed his gradual improvement until he got to where he is now. They are on VERY similar trajectories right now. And sure, no guarantees, but it would be WAY more of an outlier for Kakko to have topped out last year at 21-22, with 40 5v5 points, even if this had been an entire year like his first (only so far) 20 games, than for him to be close to 60 points or more in his prime.

 

[Machinehead]

I think there is a basis, Nichushkin's numbers weren't bad until his big down D+4 season of 10 points. After that season he resumed his gradual improvement until he got to where he is now. They are on VERY similar trajectories right now. And sure, no guarantees, but it would be WAY more of an outlier for Kakko to have topped out last year at 21-22, with 40 5v5 points, even if this had been an entire year like his first (only so far) 20 games, than for him to be close to 60 points or more in his prime.

But to say they're on very similar trajectories is to ignore that Nichushkin's trajectory took an exponential spike, or to assume that the same would happen to Kakko.

It's being framed as though Nuchushkin improved every single year into the player he is outside of that one season. That's not what happened. What happened is that he went from a career-high 0.38 PPG in 2021 to 0.83 PPG in 2022. That type of increase in production is exceedingly rare.

It's the same thing as the Lehtinen comparisons. Both players scored at a rate Kakko has never approached.

Most forwards' primes are in their early to mid 20's in terms of production. Anything can happen. Kakko can win the Hart someday. "Can" is not a basis for projection.

 

[bhamill]

But to say they're on very similar trajectories is to ignore that Nichushkin's trajectory took an exponential spike, or to assume that the same would happen to Kakko.

It's being framed as though Nuchushkin improved every single year into the player he is outside of that one season. That's not what happened. What happened is that he went from a career-high 0.38 PPG in 2021 to 0.83 PPG in 2022. That type of increase in production is exceedingly rare.

It's the same thing as the Lehtinen comparisons. Both players scored at a rate Kakko has never approached.

Most forwards' primes are in their early to mid 20's in terms of production. Anything can happen. Kakko can win the Hart someday. "Can" is not a basis for projection.

That's not entirely accurate. Nuchs career prev high was .43 ppg as a rookie and then .42 in his D+3. You could see talent was there that he had to put together. Even after Dallas gave up on him he had injury issues, his games played were erratic, no seasons close to full (like his D+1 and D+3). I can't say how frequent or infrequent it is for a player to take a dramatic jump from his previous high but I doubt it's unheard of.
Kakko's path SO FAR has been similar to Nuch's, not identical, similar. Including the downer year Kakko is having this year. Players don't reach their primes till 25 or older, especially bigger forwards and Dmen. I'm not projecting he becomes Nuch or takes the same exact path, I'm saying his development so far is not dissimilar, and that thinking he topped out in his production at 21-22 is far less likely than that it goes up significantly by the time he is 25. Not only "can" Kakko become a 60 point player, its also far more likely than him having already had his best year. (or winning the Hart, hahaha) The people who thought Nuch had topped out at .42-.43ppg were wrong... and had they been right that would have been the outlier.
Edit: if his chronic health conditions have taken a turn for the worse, and are responsible for his weak start this year, then everything I wrote goes out the window. I kind of doubt that is it, but you never know.