Speculation: Justin Holl Discussion Thread

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Yep he was great. Shut us all the f*** up. Hope he keeps doing so.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Great game from Holl.

Helps the Leafs win and shuts Simmons up. What more could we want?

 

[Zybalto]

Maybe there was a reason to go after Holl due to him making mistakes leading to goals the 2nd half of the season? I'm not a huge fan of judging D off goals against but I keep hearing about how many mistakes Holl has made and how many goals it cost the team.

Fewest goals allowed/60 5v5 from January 1st to the end of the regular season among the Leafs regular D:

1. Holl
2. Giordano
3. Boosh
4. Dermott
5. Brodie
6. Sandin
7. Liljegren
8. Muzzin
9. Rielly

Fewest goals allowed/60 5v5 in the playoffs so far:

1. Holl
2. Giordano
3. Muzzin
4. Brodie
5. Liljegren
6. Rielly
7. Boosh

Thats not fancy stats, just straight goals allowed on the ice rates.

It's so strange how these stupid narratives get started. Some sort of weird cult-like hatred that takes root in the fanbase against certain players, usually a defensive dman and is usually dead wrong.

You cant get much more wrong than thinking the dman on the ice for the fewest amount of goals is on for the most.

 

[123offtheglass]

Less icetime can go a long way, Holl can really solid playing sub 15min rather than 20+ minutes a night

This D depth is a treat we should really appreciate, Tampa does not.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Gotta give some credit to Holl last night .. he played a very very very simple game and moved puck as fast as he can .. when he plays that type of game like I have said he can be a 6 guy on a team (his hockey skills prevent any further advancement - skating, brain) .. we need that type of game again .. when you don't hear about a D that is when a D is playing great .. Rielly should be only D with a green light .. thats it period end of story

 

[Apex Predator]

Holl played great last night! He just needs to keep it simple. When he tries to do more than he’s capable off is when he gets himself in trouble. Keep it simple Holl and you will be fine!

 

[WillyC]

I loved Holl’s game last night… besides his defensive play, you could really notice, this man wants to win bad, when he was chipping in.

 

[ACC1224]

Played the best game of his career last night.

 

[Dreakmur]

Played the best game of his career last night.

He was finally put into a position to succeed. Play him less than 15 minutes and he’s fine. Trying to pretend he’s a top 4 guy exposes him.

 

[wingman75]

Played the best game of his career last night.

12:30 even-strength TOI.

That is as much as it should ever be. If he can bring that clean effort in 12-13 minutes each night, we are in good shape.

 

[Funk21]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Holl had himself a game yesterday but he has been largely underwhelming in the playoffs and during the regular season.

Maybe I am bias here but I have preferred the Gio and Liljegren pairing personally.

 

[ACC1224]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Holl had himself a game yesterday but he has been largely underwhelming in the playoffs and during the regular season.

Maybe I am bias here but I have preferred the Gio and Liljegren pairing personally.

100%

 

[Jojalu]

Maybe there was a reason to go after Holl due to him making mistakes leading to goals the 2nd half of the season? I'm not a huge fan of judging D off goals against but I keep hearing about how many mistakes Holl has made and how many goals it cost the team.

Fewest goals allowed/60 5v5 from January 1st to the end of the regular season among the Leafs regular D:

1. Holl
2. Giordano
3. Boosh
4. Dermott
5. Brodie
6. Sandin
7. Liljegren
8. Muzzin
9. Rielly

Fewest goals allowed/60 5v5 in the playoffs so far:

1. Holl
2. Giordano
3. Muzzin
4. Brodie
5. Liljegren
6. Rielly
7. Boosh

Thats not fancy stats, just straight goals allowed on the ice rates.

It's so strange how these stupid narratives get started. Some sort of weird cult-like hatred that takes root in the fanbase against certain players, usually a defensive dman and is usually dead wrong.

You cant get much more wrong than thinking the dman on the ice for the fewest amount of goals is on for the most.

Someone posted a great video of Holl's fame and all the little things he does well.

Facts don't matter in this case. The lynch mob has pitchforks and torches out.

 

[ACC1224]

Someone posted a great video of Holl's fame and all the little things he does well.

Facts don't matter in this case. The lynch mob has pitchforks and torches out.

I'm sure someone could put together a video of all the bad things he does as well.
No player is good or bad 100% of the time.

 

[Jojalu]

I'm sure someone could put together a video of all the bad things he does as well.
No player is good or bad 100% of the time.

Agreed. He is not a great d-man, nor is he is horrible as this board would lead you to believe. He has been pretty solid. He now gets blamed for things that happen when he is not on the ice

 

[IPS]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Holl had himself a game yesterday but he has been largely underwhelming in the playoffs and during the regular season.

Maybe I am bias here but I have preferred the Gio and Liljegren pairing personally.

Holl is a lot better when they keep his ice time in that 14-15 minute range. The 20 minutes he averaged in the regular season is too much for a guy of his limited skillset.

 

[Dreakmur]

Someone posted a great video of Holl's fame and all the little things he does well.

Facts don't matter in this case. The lynch mob has pitchforks and torches out.

The video included him losing battles and getting beat in open ice. How those made into a highlight video is beyond me. Every player does good and bad things. Holl’s good and bad adds up to a descent #5-6 defenseman.

 

[Jojalu]

The video included him losing battles and getting beat in open ice. How those made into a highlight video is beyond me. Every player does good and bad things. Holl’s good and bad adds up to a descent #5-6 defenseman.

Agreed.

 

[IPS]

Gotta give some credit to Holl last night .. he played a very very very simple game and moved puck as fast as he can .. when he plays that type of game like I have said he can be a 6 guy on a team (his hockey skills prevent any further advancement - skating, brain) .. we need that type of game again .. when you don't hear about a D that is when a D is playing great .. Rielly should be only D with a green light .. thats it period end of story

Brodie makes some great pinches too and is very smart with them.

Holl isn't those guys and he can't recover like they do when it goes wrong.

 

[Shooter2x]

Holl was good last night. But that doesn't mean Lil would have been worse at #6.

I saw a lot of 5v5 plays in the 1st and 2nd period where it would have been better if Lil had the puck instead of Holl. With Lil, we could have had the lead before the 3rd period. With Holl, you'd rather have him than Lil when the goalie is pulled and you need to defend a one goal lead.

At the end of the day we are lucky to choose between Holl or Lil as the #6, that's huge depth.....I'm just a bit more biased towards Lil because I think across 60 minutes + 60 * how many games you play, the smooth skating high IQ transition defenceman has a bigger overall impact in the playoffs.

 

[Doublerum1975]

Holl is fine when he play’s defense it’s when he thinks he’s Morgan Riley is when he gets into trouble

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Holl was good last night. But that doesn't mean Lil would have been worse at #6.

I saw a lot of 5v5 plays in the 1st and 2nd period where it would have been better if Lil had the puck instead of Holl. With Lil, we could have had the lead before the 3rd period. With Holl, you'd rather have him than Lil when the goalie is pulled and you need to defend a one goal lead.

At the end of the day we are lucky to choose between Holl or Lil as the #6, that's huge depth.....I'm just a bit more biased towards Lil because I think across 60 minutes + 60 * how many games you play, the smooth skating high IQ transition defenceman has a bigger overall impact in the playoffs.

I'm with you on that assessment but as I heard a million times when I was searching for 1 freakin call up to NHL TIE goes to da VET .. if Holl plays every game like last night and keeps his game very simple then he gets those 12 minutes on 3rd pair over da rook especially in playoffs .. but Lily is gonna be a factor in da NHL and I think he will be a top 4 pair guy .. he can skate, he had handle da puck and he is strong enough and smart enough to play D .. but bottom line he is gonna need 3-5 years of seasoning/learning to be a top end D man .. 1 playoff series means very little in a Ds development .. and coaches always have a hard time trusting a rook in playoffs .. it is old school

 

[LeafSteel]

Right now I consider Holl and impediment to Liljegrens development.

A decision needs to happen this off-season around Holl and to a least extent Boosh.

My issue with Holl is he has already had a negative effect on the overall team when McCann was exposed to keep him, and then Liljegren not being played despite a solid playoff and break through development this season.

For me he is simply not a permanent piece moving forward. We have better found defence in the pipeline, and we are better suited to move him in the off-season for a pick and the cap space.

I don’t think he’s better than what we have and I would rather Liljegren continue his development, where he has already surpassed Holl.

 

[mistaclick]

I love Justin Holl as a person. But man is it hard to vouch for the player.
He’s a viable 7th man next year provided we can shed cap in other ways. Otherwise he should be the one gone… or Muzzin? Definitely some changes coming this off-season, and it’s hard to say Holl should play given what we’ve seen from Lily.

 

[zeke]

Goals Against per 60 5v5

1. Holl 1.72
2. Giordano 2.01
3. Muzzin 2.41
4. Brodie 2.43
5. Liljegren 2.64
6. Rielly 3.33
7. Lyubushkin 3.94


Goals For per 60 5v5

1. Liljegren 4.76
2. Brodie 4.02
3. Muzzin 3.96
4. Giordano 2.86
5. Holl 1.96
6. Rielly 1.69
7. Lyubushkin 1.04


Goals For Percentage 5v5

1. Liljegren 64.3%
2. Brodie 62.3%
3. Muzzin 62.2%
4. Giordano 58.7%
5. Holl 53.2%
6. RIelly 33.7%
7. Lyubushkin 20.9%




Expected Goals Against per 60 5v5

1. Holl 1.34
2. Brodie 2.17
3. Giordano 2.24
4. Muzzin 2.66
5. Rielly 3.09
6. Lyubushkin 3.57
7. Liljegren 4.11


Expected Goals For per 60 5v5

1. Giordano 2.98
2. Holl 2.97
3. Rielly 2.61
4. Muzzin 2.57
5. Brodie 2.56
6. Lyubushkin 2.37
7. Liljegren 1.82


Expected Goals For Percentage 5v5

1. Holl 68.9%
2. Giordano 57.1%
3. Brodie 54.1%
4. Muzzin 49.2%
5. Rielly 45.8%
6. Lyubushkin 39.9%
7. Liljegren 30.7%




Other metrics I don't usually use but just for further confirmation:


Shots For Percentage 5v5

1. Giordano 59.5%
2. Holl 53.6%
3. Brodie 52.7%
4. Liljegren 50.5%
5. Muzzin 49.9%
6. Rielly 47.0%
7. Lyubushkin 37.7%


Unblocked Shot Attempts For Percentage 5v5

1. Giordano 56.7%
2. Brodie 55.4%
3. Holl 55.2%
4. Muzzin 51.9%
5. Rielly 50.1%
6. Lyubushkin 41.8%
7. Liljegren 41.4%


Total Shot Attempts For Percentage 5v5

1. Giordano 53.0%
2. Brodie 51.3%
3. Holl 51.2%
4. Rielly 46.9%
5. Muzzin 46.7%
6. Liljegren 41.6%
7. Lyubushkin 39.0%




Poor Mo.