Speculation: Justin Holl Discussion Thread

Stephen

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Feb 28, 2002
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Oh, I've seen both play and I think I'm just seeing all players make mistakes in this league and some more than others. Some get amplified a little too much without context though....and I can also take into account the team Chychrun is playing on.

If you want to see the actual excel file stuff since Keefe came in 2019 and made Holl a regular, here are the top 10 dmen for 5v5 xGF% over that time who have played at least 2000 minutes:

1. Cale Makar
2. Devon Toews
3. Charlie McAvoy
4. Jake Muzzin
5. Sam Girard
6. MacKenzie Weegar
7. Victor Hedman
8. Shea Theodore
9. Adam Pelech
10. Justin Holl

Considering the oZone starts Muzz and Holl get, thats an impressive list to be on with a near 150 game sample size.

You (and a lot of other folks) might have been a little hard on Holl is all I'm saying. He's been an absolute steal for us up to this point.

Well, like I said, I think he gets more flak for his high profile unforced errors, ill timed pinches and getting caught flat footed than pure volume of mistakes that cost his team. Keep in mind he also earned some healthy scratches earlier in the season which coincided with the Leafs first winning streak of the season so his quality of play has caught the attention of more than vocal fans and this team is capable of rolling without him for a decent stretch.

In terms of underlying numbers, I think he's always had support from that community for strong numbers as your 5v5 xGF% suggests but you're talking about the Holl vs Chychrun, that's obviously an extreme example of a top 4 guy on a top 5-7 team in goal scored and goals differential vs a player who is logging 24 minutes on a team with a .292 winning percentage.

Is he a steal? He's cheap and serviceable, but beyond that, meh? My big take away is they should have him on a shorter defensive leash, take away some of the frillier east west options and give him stricter defensive parameters. I guess the offensive possession game needs players on the blueline to be activated but I'd give him more of an amber light than a green light when it comes to joining the rush. When he goes deep the payoff usually isn't there. Keep it simple.
 

Golden_Jet

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Sep 21, 2005
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Oh, I've seen both play and I think I'm just seeing all players make mistakes in this league and some more than others. Some get amplified a little too much without context though....and I can also take into account the team Chychrun is playing on.

If you want to see the actual excel file stuff since Keefe came in 2019 and made Holl a regular, here are the top 10 dmen for 5v5 xGF% over that time who have played at least 2000 minutes:

1. Cale Makar
2. Devon Toews
3. Charlie McAvoy
4. Jake Muzzin
5. Sam Girard
6. MacKenzie Weegar
7. Victor Hedman
8. Shea Theodore
9. Adam Pelech
10. Justin Holl

Considering the oZone starts Muzz and Holl get, thats an impressive list to be on with a near 150 game sample size.

You (and a lot of other folks) might have been a little hard on Holl is all I'm saying. He's been an absolute steal for us up to this point.
Since it’s 2019 until now, what are the actual GF 5 on 5 top 10. Since we have that data, no need for expected, since it’s already happened.
 
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Zybalto

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Dec 28, 2012
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Since it’s 2019 until now, what are the actual GF 5 on 5 top 10. Since we have that data, no need for expected, since it’s already happened.

Using actual GF% is sketchy to me as it is highly biased by goaltending and shooting% and Holl certainly sinks down (seeing as the Leafs have only the 20th best 5v5 save% over that time) but Holl still remains above 50% despite his high QoC and usage.

Morgan Rielly actually enters the top 10 for GF%.
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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Using actual GF% is sketchy to me as it is highly biased by goaltending and shooting% and Holl certainly sinks down (seeing as the Leafs have only the 20th best 5v5 save% over that time) but Holl still remains above 50% despite his high QoC and usage.

Morgan Rielly actually enters the top 10 for GF%.
While somewhat true, can’t the same be said then in comparing Chychurn’s numbers on a terrible team , with a top 5 team, even for a lot of the reasons you mentioned.
 

Zybalto

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Dec 28, 2012
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Well, like I said, I think he gets more flak for his high profile unforced errors, ill timed pinches and getting caught flat footed than pure volume of mistakes that cost his team. Keep in mind he also earned some healthy scratches earlier in the season which coincided with the Leafs first winning streak of the season so his quality of play has caught the attention of more than vocal fans and this team is capable of rolling without him for a decent stretch.

In terms of underlying numbers, I think he's always had support from that community for strong numbers as your 5v5 xGF% suggests but you're talking about the Holl vs Chychrun, that's obviously an extreme example of a top 4 guy on a top 5-7 team in goal scored and goals differential vs a player who is logging 24 minutes on a team with a .292 winning percentage.

Is he a steal? He's cheap and serviceable, but beyond that, meh? My big take away is they should have him on a shorter defensive leash, take away some of the frillier east west options and give him stricter defensive parameters. I guess the offensive possession game needs players on the blueline to be activated but I'd give him more of an amber light than a green light when it comes to joining the rush. When he goes deep the payoff usually isn't there. Keep it simple.

After Holl came back, the Leafs went on a 10-1 run so I don't think he was anything but good, and the winning streak actually more coincided with Matthews getting up to speed and dropping Ritchie out of the top 6.

Chychrun actually has decent xGF% REL numbers himself but I still wonder if he is going to be a) worth the cost and b) be able to produce enough to offset what others bring. It's just a huge gamble to me and like I said.....Why the hell would any rebuilding team give up a really good 23-year-old RH blueliner? Somethings not right there.

I do agree with a more simple approach and he's actually done this for large stretches in his career when he's been the most successful.
 

Zybalto

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Dec 28, 2012
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While somewhat true, can’t the same be said then in comparing Chychurn’s numbers on a terrible team , with a top 5 team, even for a lot of the reasons you mentioned.

It's a gamble right?

Chychrun is certainly a better offensive weapon and got more offensive minutes with the Keller/Kessels of the team.

Just a little nervous in taking parts away from a possible 120 point team is all.
 

Stephen

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Feb 28, 2002
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After Holl came back, the Leafs went on a 10-1 run so I don't think he was anything but good, and the winning streak actually more coincided with Matthews getting up to speed and dropping Ritchie out of the top 6.

Chychrun actually has decent xGF% REL numbers himself but I still wonder if he is going to be a) worth the cost and b) be able to produce enough to offset what others bring. It's just a huge gamble to me and like I said.....Why the hell would any rebuilding team give up a really good 23-year-old RH blueliner? Somethings not right there.

I do agree with a more simple approach and he's actually done this for large stretches in his career when he's been the most successful.

Yeah, I agree. Making an investment in Chychrun at the cost of the rumored 3x first round picks (recently picked prospects and future picks) is a significant gamble for sure. You never know what kind of defenseman you're getting when they've been brought up in a losing environment. But generally I'd avoid all Holl vs Chychrun comparisons on any statistical analysis since you're talking about such different team environments, their roles, age, upside, skills, etc.
 

Zybalto

Registered User
Dec 28, 2012
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Yeah, I agree. Making an investment in Chychrun at the cost of the rumored 3x first round picks (recently picked prospects and future picks) is a significant gamble for sure. You never know what kind of defenseman you're getting when they've been brought up in a losing environment. But generally I'd avoid all Holl vs Chychrun comparisons on any statistical analysis since you're talking about such different team environments, their roles, age, upside, skills, etc.

Agreed but I sort of just wanted to point out Holl/Muzzin's effectiveness over a pretty big sample is up there with the big boys on equally successful clubs. He started late and may even be losing it a little bit as he's hit 30 now but this was a guy who, through sheer hard work, managed to carve himself a top 4 role on one of the best NHL teams in the league at 27 years old.....

...and for those so critical about playoff performances, he was pretty damn good in the playoffs last year (+5, tied for the lead for all dmen in the series, part of the best PK in the playoffs)
 

keonsbitterness

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Using actual GF% is sketchy to me as it is highly biased by goaltending and shooting% and Holl certainly sinks down (seeing as the Leafs have only the 20th best 5v5 save% over that time) but Holl still remains above 50% despite his high QoC and usage.

Morgan Rielly actually enters the top 10 for GF%.
How could an actual stat be sketchier than something like expected goals, which by definition is subjective?
 

Nylanderthal

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Jun 9, 2010
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Unless you know something that everyone else does not, all you know is that Dubas allegedly explored the market for him earlier when we had too many defensemen. We did the same thing with Dermott too.

I find it funny how there are some people who want to pay a 2nd+ for Mayfield, or are seriously considering Chiarot as a rental addition, but at the same time thing we would have to pay to dump Holl not realizing that Holl has been a better player than those guys.
But da hits and da grit
 

Zybalto

Registered User
Dec 28, 2012
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How could an actual stat be sketchier than something like expected goals, which by definition is subjective?

Thats easy.

Let's just say you have a great team and a poor one...but the great team has a crap goalie and the poor one has the best goalie in the world.

They play a game and the best goalie in the world steals the game for the poor defensive team. Shots are 40-20 for the better team but the score ends up 5-1 for the poor team. The goals scored are all perimeter shots the crap goalie whiffed on too.

Just because the great team gave up 5 goals doesn't mean they are a bad team or are poor defensively....they just have a bad goalie.

Goals against = defense + goaltending. If you really want to judge D, you gotta take out the goaltending variable somehow.

You can go by shots if you want (which does a somewhat decent job and is accepted by traditionalists and analytics nerds alike) but the perfect way to look at things would to be if we could take the keepers out of the equation and try to analyze things by actual scoring areas, rebound shots, etc.....basically try to isolate shot quality....thats xGF%.

I mean, the Leafs are a good team to look at right now too with the struggles of their keepers the last month and a half 5v5.

Leafs 5v5 defensive ranking since January 1st:


Shots Against: 2nd fewest in the NHL
Scoring Chances Against: 3rd fewest in the NHL
Expected Goals Against: 5th fewest in the NHL

Team save%: 30th in the NHL

Actual Goals Against: 28th fewest in the NHL.


It doesnt matter how tight you try to play D, if your keepers arnt on the ball, youre gonna give up a ton of goals. There could be some defensive issues in there too but the eye test confrms just how much the Leafs keepers have been out of sorts. Just gotta hope the keepers come around for the playoffs.
 

JT AM da real deal

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OMG only spreadsheet guys would hold onto Holl for Jakob .. Dubie has same problem he is a spreadsheet guy too and then when he wants to help loosen his CAP situation he finds out nobody else in league buys any of his numbers .. Jakob will get traded for a 1st rounder, a up and coming defender and a top end prospect .. it is what young top 4 defenders on great AAV terms get .. Holl requires Dubie to give up a pick to unload for CAP relief as other teams don't want to pay 2M AAV for a 6th/7th guy .. it is only in a world of spreadsheets where people over value players .. everyone else who played looks at skating, skills and brains (all of which Holl has very little) .. if team keeps Holl in top 4 it will be another 1st round exit and Dubie will be fired and all his spreadsheet guys will be axed too .. but good news we will get a hockey guy back in charge and start retooling for a playoff type team
 
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Zybalto

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Dec 28, 2012
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Forgot 97 undressing our #1 dman last year. Not to mention making out shutdown pair look like pylons.

This might actually be one of the worst takes of the year.

No pairing in the league has been better at shutting down McDavid the last 3 years than Muzzin/Holl.

It's literally a meme.

McDavid goals for/60 at even strength overall last year: 4.7

Against the Muzzin/Holl pairing: 1.79


They were line-matching McDavid away from Holl last year. You do remember this right?

Muzzin/Holl have been a top 5 shutdown pairing in the league the last 3 years. That hate is too much man...
 

Ashdown2

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Aug 19, 2006
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OMG only spreadsheet guys would hold onto Holl for Jakob .. Dubie has same problem he is a spreadsheet guy too and then when he wants to help loosen his CAP situation he finds out nobody else in league buys any of his numbers .. Jakob will get traded for a 1st rounder, a up and coming defender and a top end prospect .. it is what young top 4 defenders on great AAV terms get .. Holl requires Dubie to give up a pick to unload for CAP relief as other teams don't want to pay 2M AAV for a 6th/7th guy .. it is only in a world of spreadsheets where people over value players .. everyone else who played looks at skating, skills and brains (all of which Holl has very little) .. if team keeps Holl in top 4 it will be another 1st round exit and Dubie will be fired and all his spreadsheet guys will be axed too .. but good news we will get a hockey guy back in charge and start retooling for a playoff type team


oh ffs ......... it isnt holl OR jakob ....... this isnt a thing .... where did this stupid narrative come from ???
 
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Nylanderthal

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Jun 9, 2010
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oh ffs ......... it isnt holl OR jakob ....... this isnt a thing .... where did this stupid narrative come from ???
This poster has assumed the role of supposed insider, apparently they’re the father of a player or some nonsense
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
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This might actually be one of the worst takes of the year.

No pairing in the league has been better at shutting down McDavid the last 3 years than Muzzin/Holl.

It's literally a meme.

McDavid goals for/60 at even strength overall last year: 4.7

Against the Muzzin/Holl pairing: 1.79


They were line-matching McDavid away from Holl last year. You do remember this right?

Muzzin/Holl have been a top 5 shutdown pairing in the league the last 3 years. That hate is too much man...

Context. The OP was mocking the Canes #3D for being taken to school by Barkov. I responded to a post that questioned it, with examples of our own D being humiliated. It happens to every team including ours.

Connor McDavid's Top 10 Career Highlights - YouTube
 

Zybalto

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Dec 28, 2012
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Context. The OP was mocking the Canes #3D for being taken to school by Barkov. I responded to a post that questioned it, with examples of our own D being humiliated. It happens to every team including ours.

Connor McDavid's Top 10 Career Highlights - YouTube

The Rielly one is a fine example I guess but elite players take top 4 Ds to school all the time. They just take Holl to school less often than most ;).

In all seriousness, this fanbase is way too hard on the Dmen who do the dirty work on the team. The ones who play the awful zone starts and face the other teams top guys.

Even using the old school +/-, Holl is +35 the last 3 seasons playing against the best players in the world with team save% ranking 20th in the league over that time. It's not like playing in the Canadian division made things any easier as lack of top-end scoring certainly wasn't an issue there. He's been less consistent this year and never that great offensively but we are still getting a 4 million + Dman for 2 million right now IMO.
 

zeke

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Context. The OP was mocking the Canes #3D for being taken to school by Barkov. I responded to a post that questioned it, with examples of our own D being humiliated. It happens to every team including ours.

Connor McDavid's Top 10 Career Highlights - YouTube

yes, that was exactly the point of my posting other top-4 D on elite teams looking foolish in this thread criticizing Justin Holl.
 

JT AM da real deal

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Oct 4, 2018
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oh ffs ......... it isnt holl OR jakob ....... this isnt a thing .... where did this stupid narrative come from ???
Someone posted that Dubie would not trade holl for jakob as holl is better LOL LOL LOL .. there is not a chance in da world Zona would even think about it .. Jakob will get a 1st rounder, an existing young promising defender playing in league now and a prospect of significance
 

Shooter2x

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Nov 3, 2021
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oh ffs ......... it isnt holl OR jakob ....... this isnt a thing .... where did this stupid narrative come from ???
Dude said he would hesitate Jakob for holl 1 for 1. Calm down jeez why so rage filled in every post you make
 

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