Speculation: Justin Holl Discussion Thread

[Stephen]

Imagine Holl did this.

Doesn’t require imagination. He does this kind of stuff on a regular basis.

The expectation isn’t mistake free hockey. But don’t constantly be the guy looking skyward on the post goal close up.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Agreed, now we just have to find the team to ship him to to fill that role.

Dubie tried to find a team to take on his 2M AAV for a 6/7 role with another team .. and found out nobody wanted him .. this after he protected him .. teams would take him on at league min but that's it .. that what Dubie learned .. and Dubie did not want to take back AAV or give up an asset to get it done .. this is very simple stuff .. and this is what happens when you rely on advanced stats .. as soon as Muzzy slipped now everyone sees what a few of us closer to team already knew .. Holl has extremely limited skating and skills

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Dubie tried to find a team to take on his 2M AAV for a 6/7 role with another team .. and found out nobody wanted him .. this after he protected him .. teams would take him on at league min but that's it .. that what Dubie learned .. and Dubie did not want to take back AAV or give up an asset to get it done .. this is very simple stuff .. and this is what happens when you rely on advanced stats .. as soon as Muzzy slipped now everyone sees what a few of us closer to team already knew .. Holl has extremely limited skating and skills

Unless you know something that everyone else does not, all you know is that Dubas allegedly explored the market for him earlier when we had too many defensemen. We did the same thing with Dermott too.

I find it funny how there are some people who want to pay a 2nd+ for Mayfield, or are seriously considering Chiarot as a rental addition, but at the same time thing we would have to pay to dump Holl not realizing that Holl has been a better player than those guys.

 

[Zybalto]

Doesn’t require imagination. He does this kind of stuff on a regular basis.

The expectation isn’t mistake free hockey. But don’t constantly be the guy looking skyward on the post goal close up.

He was bad early but since Nov. 1st, he hasnt been on for many.

Goals against/60 since Nov. 1st (and a couple other things):

Holl: 2.24 (2.16 xGA, 43.33 Ozone starts)
Brodie: 2.26 (2.38 xGA, 52.54 Ozone starts)
Rielly: 2.36 (2.5 xGA, 54.55 Ozone starts)
Muzzin: 2.83 (2.28 xGA, 42.15 Ozone starts)

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Unless you know something that everyone else does not, all you know is that Dubas allegedly explored the market for him earlier when we had too many defensemen. We did the same thing with Dermott too.

I find it funny how there are some people who want to pay a 2nd+ for Mayfield, or are seriously considering Chiarot as a rental addition, but at the same time thing we would have to pay to dump Holl not realizing that Holl has been a better player than those guys.

There was a market for Dermy but again not what Dubie wanted for him .. this from Jimmy who I know in my hockey friend group as our kids played with each other in spring tournaments growing up (Dermy's dad) .. hockey world in GTA is very very small and pretty tight as all these kids played together or against each other is same soup bowl for years

 

[SeaOfBlue]

There was a market for Dermy but again not what Dubie wanted for him .. this from Jimmy who I know in my hockey friend group as our kids played with each other in spring tournaments growing up (Dermy's dad) .. hockey world in GTA is very very small and pretty tight as all these kids played together or against each other is same soup bowl for years

How would Dermott (or especially his dad) know anything about what Dubas was asking for him or what he would get for him? That is not exactly something you tell players or their parents.

Maybe Dermott's dad knows that Dermott was shopped, which would confirm the rumors, but I doubt his dad knows what it'll take for him to get moved. I don't think it is any secret that Dermott (or even Holl) is not untouchable, but that does not mean the Leafs are going to move him for less than they are worth. The Leafs certainly should not value Holl for less than a 1st.

 

[ACC1224]

How would Dermott (or especially his dad) know anything about what Dubas was asking for him or what he would get for him? That is not exactly something you tell players or their parents.

Maybe Dermott's dad knows that Dermott was shopped, which would confirm the rumors, but I doubt his dad knows what it'll take for him to get moved. I don't think it is any secret that Dermott (or even Holl) is not untouchable, but that does not mean the Leafs are going to move him for less than they are worth. The Leafs certainly should not value Holl for less than a 1st.

No wonder why they can't get rid of him.

 

[zeke]

Doesn’t require imagination. He does this kind of stuff on a regular basis.

The expectation isn’t mistake free hockey. But don’t constantly be the guy looking skyward on the post goal close up.

It's funny you say that - so much of Leafs' fans distorted view of defense is due to the fact that Leafs broadcasts almost always do an immediate close up on the closest defenseman to a goal against, rather than on the opponent that scored the goal. This has embedded the blame dman tendency in Leafs fans for generations.


But anyways, since the restart, Holl has been on the ice for fewer goals against (total and per minute) than any Leafs dman, if you actually care about those post-goals against closeups.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

How would Dermott (or especially his dad) know anything about what Dubas was asking for him or what he would get for him? That is not exactly something you tell players or their parents.

Maybe Dermott's dad knows that Dermott was shopped, which would confirm the rumors, but I doubt his dad knows what it'll take for him to get moved. I don't think it is any secret that Dermott (or even Holl) is not untouchable, but that does not mean the Leafs are going to move him for less than they are worth. The Leafs certainly should not value Holl for less than a 1st.

Of course us players never get told what mgmt wants but questions about where a player wants to go, what/where he would prefer and what his comp expectations in next contract are discussed .. players and/or agents are informed they are being shopped and it is very natural for players to want to know why and generally it is a straight up discussion .. there is a lot more back and forth which goes on which occurs .. sometimes a team will say look Dermy we are not happy with your development but we think you have da skills but we want our 3rd pair D at league min and if we can get a 2022 1st rounder then we are gonna trade you .. it is all pretty simple .. and guys/friends talk like in any other walk of life .. us players are no different

 

[Stephen]

He was bad early but since Nov. 1st, he hasnt been on for many.

Goals against/60 since Nov. 1st (and a couple other things):

Holl: 2.24 (2.16 xGA, 43.33 Ozone starts)
Brodie: 2.26 (2.38 xGA, 52.54 Ozone starts)
Rielly: 2.36 (2.5 xGA, 54.55 Ozone starts)
Muzzin: 2.83 (2.28 xGA, 42.15 Ozone starts)

I don’t think the issue with Holl is analytical, since he’s always had pretty good numbers and support from that community. No one’s expecting mistake free hockey but I think his problem is sudden, catastrophic and seemingly unforced errors which could be avoided with a more focused, simplified game.

 

[Stephen]

It's funny you say that - so much of Leafs' fans distorted view of defense is due to the fact that Leafs broadcasts almost always do an immediate close up on the closest defenseman to a goal against, rather than on the opponent that scored the goal. This has embedded the blame dman tendency in Leafs fans for generations.


But anyways, since the restart, Holl has been on the ice for fewer goals against (total and per minute) than any Leafs dman, if you actually care about those post-goals against closeups.

I think Holl’s cardinal sin is the seemingly unforced error caused by either a lapse in concentration or indecision which results in a Yakkity Sax sequence. Some guys look more shaky when they get beat. Holl kind of falls into the category of a Bryan McCabe or Dion Phaneuf when they get caught in the gear shift between pinching or backtracking. Or getting caught flat footed like an Aki Berg.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I think Holl’s cardinal sin is the seemingly unforced error caused by either a lapse in concentration or indecision which results in a Yakkity Sax sequence. Some guys look more shaky when they get beat. Holl kind of falls into the category of a Bryan McCabe or Dion Phaneuf when they get caught in the gear shift between pinching or backtracking. Or getting caught flat footed like an Aki Berg.

Holl's problems are mutliple - not too bright, lacking in skating and lacking in skills - unless someone covers for him he will have trouble every game at several points .. Muzzy can't do it anymore ... his gravy train is over

 

[Zybalto]

I don’t think the issue with Holl is analytical, since he’s always had pretty good numbers and support from that community. No one’s expecting mistake free hockey but I think his problem is sudden, catastrophic and seemingly unforced errors which could be avoided with a more focused, simplified game.

I don't disagree that he can run into these sort of issues as well as go for an ill-advised skate once in a while but I do have an issue with the fact that its not just the analytics but also the results. He's been a solid D this year for a #4 shutdown and overall since he was promoted back in 2019. He's certainly been worth more than 2 million a year and I'm not sure how you would replace his value. Even picking up a guy like Chychrun is extremely sketchy with his bad numbers (and why the hell does a rebuilding team want to trade a 23 year old supposed "stud" on D? Sounds fishy) doesn't feel right. This market is hard on shutdown D, thats for sure. Every time we trade one, the teams and fans usually wonder what the hell we were talking about. The last one (Ceci) was loved by the Pens fans and the Oilers fans think he's the best off-season pickup they made. This fanbase can pretend to want a shutdown D but zeke is right........unless they score a bunch of goals too, all the fans see at home is click-bait zoom-ins on Dmen the ones tasked with playing against the best players in the world are going to get beat a time or two and look a little silly.

Whats strange about going after Holl is that all his numbers, including his results over the last month and a half are REALLY good. I think it's a risk trading Holl for Chychrun 1 for 1.

 

[zeke]

I think Holl’s cardinal sin is the seemingly unforced error caused by either a lapse in concentration or indecision which results in a Yakkity Sax sequence. Some guys look more shaky when they get beat. Holl kind of falls into the category of a Bryan McCabe or Dion Phaneuf when they get caught in the gear shift between pinching or backtracking. Or getting caught flat footed like an Aki Berg.

Funny tho how so many Leafs D are so especially stricken with this disease, no?

....or maybe they're not.

 

[Stephen]

Funny tho how so many Leafs D are so especially stricken with this disease, no?

....or maybe they're not.

The league is full of mediocre defensemen breaking down, making ill timed pinches, miscues and unforced errors on a nightly basis, just like Justin Holl. We just have a big fan base that talks about it more.

 

[Stephen]

I don't disagree that he can run into these sort of issues as well as go for an ill-advised skate once in a while but I do have an issue with the fact that its not just the analytics but also the results. He's been a solid D this year for a #4 shutdown and overall since he was promoted back in 2019. He's certainly been worth more than 2 million a year and I'm not sure how you would replace his value. Even picking up a guy like Chychrun is extremely sketchy with his bad numbers (and why the hell does a rebuilding team want to trade a 23 year old supposed "stud" on D? Sounds fishy) doesn't feel right. This market is hard on shutdown D, thats for sure. Every time we trade one, the teams and fans usually wonder what the hell we were talking about. The last one (Ceci) was loved by the Pens fans and the Oilers fans think he's the best off-season pickup they made. This fanbase can pretend to want a shutdown D but zeke is right........unless they score a bunch of goals too, all the fans see at home is click-bait zoom-ins on Dmen the ones tasked with playing against the best players in the world are going to get beat a time or two and look a little silly.

Whats strange about going after Holl is that all his numbers, including his results over the last month and a half are REALLY good. I think it's a risk trading Holl for Chychrun 1 for 1.

If you’re hesitating to trade Holl for Chychrun, I think that’s a healthy reminder to cross reference the excel file with some game tape.

 

[zeke]

The league is full of mediocre defensemen breaking down, making ill timed pinches, miscues and unforced errors on a nightly basis, just like Justin Holl. We just have a big fan base that talks about it more.

So the league is full of justin holls but he is a big problem for the Leafs (even whilst not being on the ice for lots of goals and whilst putting up very good underlying numbers in a top matxhup role.)

 

[Stephen]

So the league is full of justin holls but he is a big problem for the Leafs (even whilst not being on the ice for lots of goals and whilst putting up very good underlying numbers in a top matxhup role.)

Yeah, because we’re a top 5 team trying to be The Best Team. Why wouldn’t we want to constantly get better?

 

[zeke]

If you’re hesitating to trade Holl for Chychrun, I think that’s a healthy reminder to cross reference the excel file with some game tape.

Game tape of how many times a guy stares at the scoreboard after a goal against?

 

[Gallagbi]

If you’re hesitating to trade Holl for Chychrun, I think that’s a healthy reminder to cross reference the excel file with some game tape.

What a gutless response

 

[Havoc]

I don't disagree that he can run into these sort of issues as well as go for an ill-advised skate once in a while but I do have an issue with the fact that its not just the analytics but also the results. He's been a solid D this year for a #4 shutdown and overall since he was promoted back in 2019. He's certainly been worth more than 2 million a year and I'm not sure how you would replace his value. Even picking up a guy like Chychrun is extremely sketchy with his bad numbers (and why the hell does a rebuilding team want to trade a 23 year old supposed "stud" on D? Sounds fishy) doesn't feel right. This market is hard on shutdown D, thats for sure. Every time we trade one, the teams and fans usually wonder what the hell we were talking about. The last one (Ceci) was loved by the Pens fans and the Oilers fans think he's the best off-season pickup they made. This fanbase can pretend to want a shutdown D but zeke is right........unless they score a bunch of goals too, all the fans see at home is click-bait zoom-ins on Dmen the ones tasked with playing against the best players in the world are going to get beat a time or two and look a little silly.

Whats strange about going after Holl is that all his numbers, including his results over the last month and a half are REALLY good. I think it's a risk trading Holl for Chychrun 1 for 1.

You had me then lost me with the last sentence

 

[Stephen]

Game tape of how many times a guy stares at the scoreboard after a goal against?

Hey I’m sure someone’s keeping track of those numbers.

 

[Zybalto]

If you’re hesitating to trade Holl for Chychrun, I think that’s a healthy reminder to cross reference the excel file with some game tape.

Oh, I've seen both play and I think I'm just seeing all players make mistakes in this league and some more than others. Some get amplified a little too much without context though....and I can also take into account the team Chychrun is playing on.

If you want to see the actual excel file stuff since Keefe came in 2019 and made Holl a regular, here are the top 10 dmen for 5v5 xGF% over that time who have played at least 2000 minutes:

1. Cale Makar
2. Devon Toews
3. Charlie McAvoy
4. Jake Muzzin
5. Sam Girard
6. MacKenzie Weegar
7. Victor Hedman
8. Shea Theodore
9. Adam Pelech
10. Justin Holl

Considering the oZone starts Muzz and Holl get, thats an impressive list to be on with a near 150 game sample size.

You (and a lot of other folks) might have been a little hard on Holl is all I'm saying. He's been an absolute steal for us up to this point.

 

[Zybalto]

You had me then lost me with the last sentence

Are you 100% positive Chychrun can replace Holl in the shutdown role/PK?

 

[Zybalto]

I mean, Holl plays on the first pairing on one of the top PKs in the league. Who replaces that?