Speculation: Justin Holl Discussion Thread

[Zybalto]

Top 15 NHL dmen (min 700+ 5v5 minutes) for xGF% since November 1st:

1. McAvoy
2. Grzelcyk
3. Reilly
4. Hanifin
5. Hedman
6. Andersson
7. Ekblad
8. Toews
9. Makar
10. Weeger
11. Matheson
12. Tanev
13. Kylington
14. Holl
15. Slavin

 

[Twine Tickler]

Holl had a great game last night, points aside. He was controlling his gaps nicely, making good reads when going back on pucks, and overall just making the right decision with the puck on his tape more often than not.

That GWG assist was outstanding as well.

He's got the ability to play this way with consistency. We saw it all last year.

Gotta give credit where credit is due, just keep it up Justin!

 

[zeke]

Top 15 NHL dmen (min 700+ 5v5 minutes) for xGF% since November 1st:

1. McAvoy
2. Grzelcyk
3. Reilly
4. Hanifin
5. Hedman
6. Andersson
7. Ekblad
8. Toews
9. Makar
10. Weeger
11. Matheson
12. Tanev
13. Kylington
14. Holl
15. Slavin

No need to limit the sample to Nov 1.

Here's the whole season:

And many of those names haven't played most of the season on the top matchup pairing like Holl has.

And it's the same when you look at the past 3yrs (min 2500):

 

[wingman75]

It's clear changing up the defensive pairings has stabilized things for a few players. It's hard for me to believe we are better without Muzzin, but it's clear Holl is better without him... they caught lightining in a bottle with that pair... seems time to move on from it permanently.

 

[Puckstuff]

It's clear changing up the defensive pairings has stabilized things for a few players. It's hard for me to believe we are better without Muzzin, but it's clear Holl is better without him... they caught lightining in a bottle with that pair... seems time to move on from it permanently.

You might say it's even a good thing we kept him over McCaan

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Give Holl his offensive dues past 2 games .. he took some risks and they paid off in points for him .. but in these same cases things could have gone much worse as he was badly out of position in almost every goal he created .. it looks at first glance that playing with Brodie has stabilized him again .. BUT remember a couple games of good play does not mean next game he can't screw us out of another win .. he gambles like crazy and needs a rock solid defender, like Brodie now, and Muzzy past 2 years (prior to his drop off this year) to make him .. da gamble for instance on Sandin's goal could have turned into a breakaway goal for a loss da other way but it worked out for him .. Brodie is covering up and correcting a ton of errors Holl is making defensively past 2 games .. again I realize most fans just don't understand da position enough to truly understand .. they just see results .. bottom line we need 2 defensive upgrades prior to playoffs otherwise it will be another round 1 loss .. but again congrats to Holl for his risk taking and success past 2 games he needs to catch a little luck too

 

[Phion Keneuf]

He’s a solid #5 D.

It’s all mental for him, he’s looked amazing last couple games.

 

[Twine Tickler]

He’s a solid #5 D.

It’s all mental for him, he’s looked amazing last couple games.

Yup, I think it's all mental for him. You could see him fighting the puck before he got HS'd a couple games back.

 

[wingman75]

You might say it's even a good thing we kept him over McCaan

I'll be honest, I never understood that perspective. D are more valuable than forwards in general terms. Despite his struggles, McCaan would not have brought anything we don't already have (in Bunting, Mikheyev, Kerfoot). It was disturbing how poorly he was playing, but the right decision was made there imo.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Nothing new here really. Super Holl comes and goes. What would be new if in 2 weeks from now we're still happy.

 

[CincoHolio]

Nothing new here really. Super Holl comes and goes. What would be new if in 2 weeks from now we're still happy.

This.

How short are some peoples memories...geez? Consistency, Holl? Justin Holl? When has Holl ever shown that he can perform as even a 5th D for a full season? He was ass for about 1/4 - 1/2 of last season and it was the same the season before. I got nothing against the guy. I wish he could perform like a 4/5 defensemen for an entire season. History has shown that's a fools gambit. Am "ok" with him filling a bottom pairing role - wish there was an upgrade though.

He did look great in the Washington game I will concede.

 

[ACC1224]

This.

How short are some peoples memories...geez? Consistency, Holl? Justin Holl? When has Holl ever shown that he can perform as a even a 5th D for a full season? He was ass for about 1/4 - 1/2 of last season and it was the same the season before. I got nothing against the guy. I wish he could perform like a 4/5 defensemen for an entire season. History has shown that's a fools gambit. Am "ok" with him filling a bottom pairing role - wish there was an upgrade though.

He did look great in the Washington game I will concede.

I think the vast majority of fans see it this same way.

 

[zeke]

GSVA updated today.....


Rielly 2.0
Sandin 1.5
Holl 1.2
Liljegren 1.1
Brodie 1.0
Muzzin 1.0

I'll have to check but I'm pretty sure that's the only defense in the league with 6 guys at 1.0 or higher.

 

[zeke]

This.

How short are some peoples memories...geez? Consistency, Holl? Justin Holl? When has Holl ever shown that he can perform as a even a 5th D for a full season? He was ass for about 1/4 - 1/2 of last season and it was the same the season before. I got nothing against the guy. I wish he could perform like a 4/5 defensemen for an entire season. History has shown that's a fools gambit. Am "ok" with him filling a bottom pairing role - wish there was an upgrade though.

He did look great in the Washington game I will concede.

Holl has performed very well on the top shutdown pairing of one of the best teams in the league for 3 years now.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

This.

How short are some peoples memories...geez? Consistency, Holl? Justin Holl? When has Holl ever shown that he can perform as even a 5th D for a full season? He was ass for about 1/4 - 1/2 of last season and it was the same the season before. I got nothing against the guy. I wish he could perform like a 4/5 defensemen for an entire season. History has shown that's a fools gambit. Am "ok" with him filling a bottom pairing role - wish there was an upgrade though.

He did look great in the Washington game I will concede.

Stats and spreadsheet guys like Dubie who never played will never ever understand .. and it is OK for stats pack fans too .. in 20+ years advanced stats will get better and track what really counts in a game .. at this point even if you believe in Dubie, as per Dubie himself, around 30% of game is strictly based on LUCK .. so I guess we have been unlucky now for 5 straight playoffs eliminated in round 1

 

[nuck]

He looked great last night. Can we change the name of this thread? Even the JT thread doesn't have disappointment in the title.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Stats and spreadsheet guys like Dubie who never played will never ever understand .. and it is OK for stats pack fans too .. in 20+ years advanced stats will get better and track what really counts in a game .. at this point even if you believe in Dubie, as per Dubie himself, around 30% of game is strictly based on LUCK .. so I guess we have been unlucky now for 5 straight playoffs eliminated in round 1

Dubas has/had (who knows at this point) Holl on his trade block since second month of the season. Not sure why you're calling him out? He seems to have acquired the same opinion as us when it comes to Holl even though it took him longer.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Dubas has/had (who knows at this point) Holl on his trade block since second month of the season. Not sure why you're calling him out? He seems to have acquired the same opinion as us when it comes to Holl even though it took him longer.

Not exactly .. from what I have heard he values Holl higher than 2M AAV and in a top 4 role and when no one was interested in a trade with that value proposition he has pulled him off market .. same with Dermy he wants a 1st round pick back for Dermy so he got pulled back too .. we could trade both but da acceptable return from league is not acceptable to Dubie .. Holl could be traded tomorrow with a pick to deal with AAV overpay for a 6th/7th defender at league min .. and Dermy could fetch a 2nd rounder all day every day .. it is all about da value proposition .. not saying you don't ask for more but you have to get realistic about a fair price .. now with Muzzy on LTIR it really does not matter anymore as team is gonna use up LTIR to pick up assets .. what you hear in paper and in media and said by Keefer is pure garbage .. meant for PR purposes only with da league much like sh*t Vegas is spewing

 

[Shooter2x]

Found this hit interesting for 2 reasons.

1.) Shows Holls lack of IQ/ slow hockey brain. Head up, sees the hit coming a mile away, decides to just get rocked. A real top 4 easily guards themselves from this and it becomes a nothing play

2.) How used are Caps announcers to hits that they don't even react to this? They don't even acknowledge the hit until 5 seconds later. I don't think I want to face them in round 1 if we don't address our soft depth issues. We may have won the battle last night but we won't win the war. Nice advanced stats followed by golf carts is becoming the norm.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Found this hit interesting for 2 reasons.

1.) Shows Holls lack of IQ/ slow hockey brain. Head up, sees the hit coming a mile away, decides to just get rocked. A real top 4 easily guards themselves from this and it becomes a nothing play

2.) How used are Caps announcers to hits that they don't even react to this? They don't even acknowledge the hit until 5 seconds later. I don't think I want to face them in round 1 if we don't address our soft depth issues. We may have won the battle last night but we won't win the war. Nice advanced stats followed by golf carts is becoming the norm.

Holl always takes the hit to make a play. I don't know why that's a bad thing

Also, the Capitals are the 26th best team in the league over the last two months. Being afraid of them because their announcers didn't react to a hit is just bizarre

 

[Nylanderthal]

Since his awfubad start Holl has been dare I say good aside from a gaffe here or there (which is the name of the game when talking about bottom 4 defenders in a 32 team league) or when paired with muzz. I don’t have the numbers in front of me but eye test and memory would suggest he and Sandin and recently he and Brodie have had good numbers, they’ve looked a lot better too. For $2m he’s far from a problem, although if a a significant add to the D happens I think him or Dermott could be on their way out to accommodate the fit

 

[DarkKnight]

Nothing new here really. Super Holl comes and goes. What would be new if in 2 weeks from now we're still happy.

I know the tire pumping for not sucking during a short spell is a bit much. Let’s see him keep it up, then he deserves kudos. It’s not like people turned on him for a couple games, he’s been dreadful for long stretches this year, and he wasn’t in the press box because of his advanced stat prowess, he stunk that’s why.

 

[zeke]

Stats and spreadsheet guys like Dubie who never played will never ever understand .. and it is OK for stats pack fans too .. in 20+ years advanced stats will get better and track what really counts in a game .. at this point even if you believe in Dubie, as per Dubie himself, around 30% of game is strictly based on LUCK .. so I guess we have been unlucky now for 5 straight playoffs eliminated in round 1

You predicted this was a bubble team.

 

[Shooter2x]

Holl always takes the hit to make a play. I don't know why that's a bad thing

Also, the Capitals are the 26th best team in the league over the last two months. Being afraid of them because their announcers didn't react to a hit is just bizarre

Point 2 was just a different way to say all the other playoff teams get this on a regular basis instead of us. If we threw that hit the reaction would be insane because we never get stuff like that.

It's more bizarre you can watch that play and claim Holl took a hit to make the play. He has time to react. It could have ended in a costly turnover instead. It's hard to catch a top 4 D with a hit like this. Even Dermott easily spins away

 

[zeke]

Found this hit interesting for 2 reasons.

1.) Shows Holls lack of IQ/ slow hockey brain. Head up, sees the hit coming a mile away, decides to just get rocked. A real top 4 easily guards themselves from this and it becomes a nothing play

2.) How used are Caps announcers to hits that they don't even react to this? They don't even acknowledge the hit until 5 seconds later. I don't think I want to face them in round 1 if we don't address our soft depth issues. We may have won the battle last night but we won't win the war. Nice advanced stats followed by golf carts is becoming the norm.

Took the hit to make the play.

Meanwhile instead of getting the puck or a turnover Hathaway got a useless hit.