Luke DeCock: Justin Faulk Speculation

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NotOpie

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I think nobody is focusing on Connor because the Jets seem to be saying they aren't letting him go, even if it costs them Laine. Plus, although Laine hasn't burned any bridges in Winnipeg as of yet, he's certainly drenching them in gasoline.

My guess is Winnipeg might also be on Faulk's no trade list, but if it isn't I still think Roslovic and a pick would be the return from them. Up and coming righty who skates well....and is seemingly unhappy in the Jets system.
 
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Big Daddy Cane

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Yeah, I'd be surprised if they didn't have it on file for Faulk at some point well before now given they had tried to move him before. If he has to submit it July 1 for instance, some of that strategy may have been less possible.

Even using July 1, St. Louis, San Jose, Montreal, Washington, Columbus, Colorado, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York (I), New York (R), Philadelphia, Boston and Tampa either didn't need him or didn't have the cap space for him. Chicago had added de Haan and Maata by that point. L.A. and Detroit are rebuilding; I don't think there's a fit there. Nashville and Dallas (Pavelski was rumored to be signing) were dubious fits as well. Pick 15 of those 18.
 
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LMFAO

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My guess is Winnipeg might also be on Faulk's no trade list, but if it isn't I still think Roslovic and a pick would be the return from them. Up and coming righty who skates well....and is seemingly unhappy in the Jets system.

Faulk should just focus on whatever team will give him the greatest opportunity to cash in next summer.

Winnioeg would be a glorious fit for Faulk right now.
 
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My Special Purpose

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That's a great original thought you've got there, would be a shame if someone else were to claim it as their own.

Sorry, trying to get my bearings back after a weird 24 hours. My head is still spinning a little.

Winnipeg would be a glorious fit for Faulk right now.

I've been on this for a while now. But at this point, I have no idea what considerations he used to make his list, so I guess it's just wait-and-see time.
 
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Ole Gil

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That would surprise me, even if it shouldn't.

People keep talking about these big contract guys, but everything the Canes have done has been in the direction of cap flexibility/long term planning.

Spending all your money on a couple high priced guys that guts your depth and means you can't resign good young players is what everyone else is doing.

I'm surprised, seeing the struggles others are having, and how nicely the Canes roster is coming together, that people are still clamoring for a Marner or Laine.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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That guy said PP Ace for Faulk. That is some strong language.

In the past 5 years, here are the leaders among defensemen for PP goals:

OEL: 41
Weber: 38
Burns: 34
Faulk: 32
Doughty: 25
Josi: 25
Ekblad: 23
Dumba: 22
Ghostisbere: 21
Shattenkirk: 21

Granted, Faulk's numbers are bolstered a bit by that one season where he had 12, (but OEL had a 12 goal season in his numbers as well and Weber had a 14G season in his - I'm not looking the year to year up for all of them). He's clearly not a PPQB, but he has been one of the better defensemen at scoring goals on the PP the past 5 years. Even this season he tied for 2nd in PPG by a defenseman.
 

Navin R Slavin

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In the past 5 years, here are the leaders among defensemen for PP goals:

OEL: 41
Weber: 38
Burns: 34
Faulk: 32
Doughty: 25
Josi: 25
Ekblad: 23
Dumba: 22
Ghostisbere: 21
Shattenkirk: 21

Granted, Faulk's numbers are bolstered a bit by that one season where he had 12, (but OEL had a 12 goal season in his numbers as well and Weber had a 14G season in his - I'm not looking the year to year up for all of them). He's clearly not a PPQB, but he has been one of the better defensemen at scoring goals on the PP the past 5 years. Even this season he tied for 2nd in PPG by a defenseman.

It doesn't do much good for your D-man to score a bunch of goals if he's the only one reliably getting them. The Canes PP has been subpar for a while, in large part because the PP dies on Faulk's stick. He shoots a low percentage shot, and yeah, sometimes it goes in, but mostly it doesn't, and likely as not it goes the other way.

I mean, it could be that he fits very nicely on someone else's PP, but I'm ready to see a D-man that's an actual PPQB.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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It doesn't do much good for your D-man to score a bunch of goals if he's the only one reliably getting them. The Canes PP has been subpar for a while, in large part because the PP dies on Faulk's stick. He shoots a low percentage shot, and yeah, sometimes it goes in, but mostly it doesn't, and likely as not it goes the other way.

I mean, it could be that he fits very nicely on someone else's PP, but I'm ready to see a D-man that's an actual PPQB.

Yeah, that's kind of what I was getting at. He's not a PPQB, but back in the day, we didn't really have the right talent to take advantage of that, so the PP ran through him. The last couple of years, with the addition of Aho, TT, Nino, an improving Svech, and the other guys we added, we have more skill upfront and we need a PPQB more than a "bomb from the point".

But Faulk can still score goals on the PP so could be an "Ace" in that regards for some teams.

Even a PP QB has to have enough of a shot to make teams keep them honest though, or they just back off that player. John Carlsson is a good example of that. He doesn't score a ton of goals, but he has a good enough shot to keep teams honest which makes the other superskilled guys they have in WSH even more dangerous. Even if his shot is missed or there's a rebound, there's guys to clean it up as well.
 
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My Special Purpose

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People keep talking about these big contract guys, but everything the Canes have done has been in the direction of cap flexibility/long term planning.

Spending all your money on a couple high priced guys that guts your depth and means you can't resign good young players is what everyone else is doing.

I'm surprised, seeing the struggles others are having, and how nicely the Canes roster is coming together, that people are still clamoring for a Marner or Laine.

Well, it all comes down to Dundon's goal. He comes from a basketball background in the sense that his ownership mentor is Mark Cuban, and superstars are a necessity in the NBA. Dundon is all about putting a "product" on the ice.

I think he also got a taste of winning with balance last season and the benefits of that, but deep down inside, I think he's got a need to go "big game hunting" when the opportunity presents itself.
 

Nikishin Go Boom

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In the past 5 years, here are the leaders among defensemen for PP goals:

OEL: 41
Weber: 38
Burns: 34
Faulk: 32
Doughty: 25
Josi: 25
Ekblad: 23
Dumba: 22
Ghostisbere: 21
Shattenkirk: 21

Granted, Faulk's numbers are bolstered a bit by that one season where he had 12, (but OEL had a 12 goal season in his numbers as well and Weber had a 14G season in his - I'm not looking the year to year up for all of them). He's clearly not a PPQB, but he has been one of the better defensemen at scoring goals on the PP the past 5 years. Even this season he tied for 2nd in PPG by a defenseman.
He is also league leader in worst shot percentage among defenders on the PP for his volume of shots taken. He was also top 10 in shots taken as well. He is top in 10 goals scored because of the shot volume not because he an ace at it.
 
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Big Daddy Cane

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Alternatively, Aho and Teravainen aren't consistently effective goal scorers from distance.

If the design of the PP is to play hot potato up top looking for a shot, I don't think Gardiner is going to make a noticeable difference. They need a one-timer from the half-wall or they need to move the puck high and low.
 
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Svechhammer

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In the past 5 years, here are the leaders among defensemen for PP goals:

OEL: 41
Weber: 38
Burns: 34
Faulk: 32
Doughty: 25
Josi: 25
Ekblad: 23
Dumba: 22
Ghostisbere: 21
Shattenkirk: 21

Granted, Faulk's numbers are bolstered a bit by that one season where he had 12, (but OEL had a 12 goal season in his numbers as well and Weber had a 14G season in his - I'm not looking the year to year up for all of them). He's clearly not a PPQB, but he has been one of the better defensemen at scoring goals on the PP the past 5 years. Even this season he tied for 2nd in PPG by a defenseman.
Imagine how many more Faulk would have if he could actually hit the net

:sarcasm:
 

Navin R Slavin

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Alternatively, Aho and Teravainen aren't consistently effective goal scorers from distance.

If the design of the PP is to play hot potato up top looking for a shot, I don't think Gardiner is going to make a noticeable difference. They need a one-timer from the half-wall or they need to move the puck high and low.

This is where the infusion of new talent should help. Necas has a bomb from the top of the left circle, and Haula had 12 PPG in 2017-2018.
 

Svechhammer

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Well, it all comes down to Dundon's goal. He comes from a basketball background in the sense that his ownership mentor is Mark Cuban, and superstars are a necessity in the NBA. Dundon is all about putting a "product" on the ice.

I think he also got a taste of winning with balance last season and the benefits of that, but deep down inside, I think he's got a need to go "big game hunting" when the opportunity presents itself.
I don't think he's shown at all that he has a desire to go big game hunting. If anything, he's showing that he's much more willing to grab 2 guys that are both + players on bargains rather than go for a single ++ player at the market rate. In the end, we might end up a better team that way by taking on smart deals for quality players and building tremendous depth rather than selling out to get the big name.

Granted, Gardiner could end up being a ++ player, but then again, we got him at the last min in free agency when his value bottomed out. We got a potential ++ asset for bargain + price, which still fits that model.
 

Navin R Slavin

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Well, it all comes down to Dundon's goal. He comes from a basketball background in the sense that his ownership mentor is Mark Cuban, and superstars are a necessity in the NBA. Dundon is all about putting a "product" on the ice.

I think he also got a taste of winning with balance last season and the benefits of that, but deep down inside, I think he's got a need to go "big game hunting" when the opportunity presents itself.

Maybe you'll be right here. I certainly wouldn't be surprised. But I don't see any evidence of that yet.
 
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Big Daddy Cane

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This is where the infusion of new talent should help. Necas has a bomb from the top of the left circle, and Haula had 12 PPG in 2017-2018.

That's if Brind'Amour plays them on that unit in the proper positions. People were worried about him not taking Faulk off the PP. There's blame to go around. Faulk and the Finns up top was collectively ineffective; multiple changes need to be made.
 
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Vagrant

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not to mention that we invested a lot of energy in trying to snag priskie, who scored 17 goals in the ncaa last year. there's still a chance he makes the team and assumes a degree of powerplay responsibilities.

if i had to guess, i would say this deal gets done. i know we're all waiting impatiently for something to happen, but there are a lot of factors working in our favor. when trade negotiations go this public, it's a lot of pressure on the player to waive. additionally, anaheim has a ballpark figure that the hurricanes negotiated against in their talks to extend him. that means if they entered serious consideration for him, they had that information from the team. it's likely a matter of finalizing some details. it's not like anaheim is going to be totally blindsided by faulk's representation about what term and number he wants. as we saw with buffalo and skinner, teams that are trading for a player with a year of contract remaining are likely to think enough of that player to go the distance with an extension.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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He is also league leader in worst shot percentage among defenders on the PP for his volume of shots taken. He was also top 10 in shots taken as well. He is top in 10 goals scored because of the shot volume not because he an ace at it.

The data from last year doesn't support that. Worst SH% on the PP by defenders with > 100min. of PP TOI last year:

Leddy: 0% in 232 min.
S. Jones: 0% in 175 min.
DeAnglelo: 0%
Girard: 0%
Sergachev: 0%
Gardiner: 0% in 115 min.
Keith: 0% in 113 min.
Provorov: 0% in 127 min.
Ristolainen: 2.3% in 233 min.
.
.
.
#44 out of 69: Faulk: 9.84% in 241 min.

Other notable guys with a worse SH% than Faulk on the PP: Shattenkirk, Josi, Klefbom, Ellis, Chabot, Byfuglien, Fowler, Krug, Barrie, Butcher, Nurse, Montour, Giordano, Gostisbhere, Subban, E. Karlsson, Seabrook, Hedman, Severson, Werenski, Dunn, Carlson, Letang, Rielly, and Suter. (among others). A guy taking a lot of shots from the point is going to have a poor shooting % because those are more low % shots. But, looking at shots taken and sticking with guys who took a lot of shots (> 40) last year, Faulk's numbers aren't that out of whack.

Ghost: 6.15%
Faulk: 9.84%
Burns: 11.84%
Yandle: 12.73%
Giordano: 5.77%
Josi: 4.0%
OEL: 10.2%
Ristolainen: 2.2%
Theodore: 9.1%
Severson: 6.98%
Krug: 4.76%
Hamilton: 4.76%
Klingberg: 11.9%
Barrie: 5.0%


Don't get me wrong, I don't think Faulk is a PPQB or a stud on the PP, but he can STILL score goals from the point if used in the right way. I can see why a reporter would call him an "Ace" because of his goal scoring.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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This is where the infusion of new talent should help. Necas has a bomb from the top of the left circle, and Haula had 12 PPG in 2017-2018.

I agree. I think an improved Svech, Haula and even Dzingle should help. I'm not so sure about Necas regardless of the highlights of the top left circle we saw. He only scored 5 total PP goals in 64 games in Charlotte. Just a stats statement though as I didn't watch them much.
 
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