Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[Miller Time]

There’s nothing demonstrably false in what I said. He was a 20 goal guy in Montreal and immediately became a star in Philly. And I don’t think it’s just the usage. You think he’d have become that star here with more ice? I don’t agree at all.

His career turned on a dime. A couple of hat tricks right away. There’s no way Lindros didn’t have something to do with that.

All credit to Leclair afterwards. I’m not saying he didn’t have talent, I’m saying he had the benefit of having a superstar bring it out. And that’s what we’ve been missing in Montreal.

Would Chuck have found more success if we had a Jagr? Would he be better after playing with him? Of course he would. Same with say Paccioretty and an Yzerman. But we haven’t had those players since Lafleur.

The guys we have now… Slaf for example, how much would he benefit if we suited him up with Mackinnon tomorrow? It’s be amazing for him. But we don’t have those kinds of players.

Your perception doesn't match the reality of his career. He didn't "turn on a dime", his production increased significantly when put in the role he was clearly ready for, and he immediately started producing at a level that reflects that. You seem to miss that Lindros also saw his production increase when playing with elite wingers, like Recchi & LeClair. Much like your CC / Suzuki take, you seem to assume all situations are Lemieux/Stevens scenarios. Reality is that most smart GMs look to pair elite talent, and elite players complement each other quite well.

Only captain obvious would need to state that playing with elite talent has an impact on a player.

For example, if Suzuki had played with a Prime John LeClair last season, he'd have produced more points...

Hence why fans that mistakenly look only at the stat lines to feed their opinion about how good a player is, or isn't, might make the mistake of discounting the context of the point production and offer up a bad take about wether or not a player is a top line performer

But, not sure what this has to do with Slaf anymore, so unless you want to move this to the history threads, i don't have anymore to say about LeClair other than I hope Slaf becomes an elite player of that caliber, hopefully sooner than John did

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Did Boston butcher Joe Thornton's debut? Did Jersey butcher Hughes debut? Similar production for both players? Butcher is not only a strong word, it sounds like a conclusive word. We don't know this yet.

World Cup is not played during Christmas, but I'll give that to ya as a typo. Yes, I agree it would have been nice to see him in the WJHC. It is fun and good for confidence IMO.

2 worlds? World 1 - We keep him up and there is a possibility he turns into Kotka or Laf. Neither are finished products but I agree, we want him to be more than those two at this point. Possibility is the key word here. We don't know that this is the definite path in world 1. World 2 - goes to the AHL and build confidence? Interesting, that you left out the word possibly. Indicative of your bias here. We don't know he builds confidence in the AHL. He may not. It may crush him.


Slaf is not a top 6 winger...but Newhook is with his outstanding 30 point season last year in Colorado? Both of these guys have untapped potential, both have top 6 potential. Both need NHL time to achieve that. Interesting that you don't advocate for Newhook to start in the A. Newhook as a natural centre, falls to third line. When Dvorak comes up, Beck graduates, Monahan gets traded, Newhook will have a spot in our top 6. For now, he will develop better leading a third line than Slaf would as a third line winger. Slaf stays top 6 IMO.

We don't actually know if Money is gone at the deadline. He is the perfect vet to support our Captain.

Bro stop using 1 playersm in the last 25 years to fit your argument. Using Big Joe seriously?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

In 95-96, Lindros played 73 games and Leclair scored 51 goals.

In 96-97, Lindros played 52 games and Leclair scored.... 50 goals.

Okay, I'll do one more

In 97-98, Lindros played 63 games and Leclair scored 51 goals.

(Leclair played 82 games each of those 3 seasons)

If Lindros had the impact you believe, we would see a parallel variance of Lindros games played versus Leclair goals scored, but we don't. That alone should tell you you're overstating Lindros's impact in regards to Leclair's goalscoring.

Lindros also had his best season playing with Leclair.

Furthermore, in 96-97, in the first 23 games Leclair played and in which Lindros didn't play, Leclair scored 13 goals, which averages out to 46 goals per 82 games.

Give it up already.

I’m well aware of Lindros’ injuries. It changes nothing.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Your perception doesn't match the reality of his career. He didn't "turn on a dime", his production increased significantly when put in the role he was clearly ready for, and he immediately started producing at a level that reflects that.

Right. With the best player in the world. Sorry but that has a lot to do with it. If Montreal had suddenly used him on the first he wouldn’t have turned into the scorer he did.

Nobody’s disputing what happened after. Nobody is saying he didn’t have talent. But there’s zero doubt that Lindros brought that talent out.

You really think he’d have just turned into a 50 goal guy that season if he was put on the fist line? No way.

 

[Andy]

Bro stop using 1 playersm in the last 25 years to fit your argument. Using Big Joe seriously?

Forwards since 1990

Similar rookie campaigns to Slaf
Joe Thornton
Lecavalier
Owen Nolan
Jack Hughes

The next tier of players that produced between 40-50 points in their rookie season as 1OA
Hall
Nash
RNH
Hischier
Tavares
Stamkos

Players that were stars in their rookie year
Crosby
Ovechkin
McDavid
Kane
Matthews

Busts
Yakupov
Daigle
Stefan

Not yet stars, but impressive rookie seasons
Kovalchuk
Mackinnon

Not sure where to put Laf

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Forwards since 1990

Similar rookie campaigns to Slaf
Joe Thornton
Lecavalier
Owen Nolan
Jack Hughes

The next tier of players that produced between 40-50 points in their rookie season as 1OA
Hall
Nash
RNH
Hischier
Tavares
Stamkos

Players that were stars in their rookie year
Crosby
Ovechkin
McDavid
Kane
Matthews

Busts
Yakupov
Daigle
Stefan

Not yet stars, but impressive rookie seasons
Kovalchuk
Mackinnon

Not sure where to put Laf

Keep in mind that Slaf was on pace for a decent rookie year before the team nosedived in mid December. 0 points in his last 15 games.

4 goals and 10 points in his precious 24. That’s a 14 goal 33 point pace. Not bad at all.

How much blame can you put on him for not producing during that horrible slump I guess is up to you. But I don’t think any rookie being used on the 3rd line can expect to do much on a club that barely averaged 2 goals a game over that stretch. The final numbers don’t look great but it’s important to keep this in mind. It’s not a vet we’re talking about.

 

[Andy]

Keep in mind that Slaf was on pace for a decent rookie year before the team nosedived in mid December. 0 points in his last 15 games.

4 goals and 10 points in his precious 24. That’s a 14 goal 33 point pace. Not bad at all.

How much blame can you put on him for not producing during that horrible slump I guess is up to you. But I don’t think any rookie being used on the 3rd line can expect to do much on a club that barely averaged 2 goals a game over that stretch. The final numbers don’t look great but it’s important to keep this in mind. It’s not a vet we’re talking about.

Yah, I guess my list is more to show that Slaf’s year one production isn’t a total outlier. Interesting that he has similar production to three other big players in Nolan, Lecavalier and Thornton.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yah, I guess my list is more to show that Slaf’s year one production isn’t a total outlier. Interesting that he has similar production to three other big players in Nolan, Lecavalier and Thornton.

Just adding context. People forget that around December he was looking pretty good.

 

[Andy]

Just adding context. People forget that around December he was looking pretty good.

Yah. I also remember during his slump people thought he played well despite not producing points. I remember him getting a number of chances per game.

I feel like the long gap between his games made people forget,

 

[417]

Keep in mind that Slaf was on pace for a decent rookie year before the team nosedived in mid December. 0 points in his last 15 games.

4 goals and 10 points in his precious 24. That’s a 14 goal 33 point pace. Not bad at all.

How much blame can you put on him for not producing during that horrible slump I guess is up to you. But I don’t think any rookie being used on the 3rd line can expect to do much on a club that barely averaged 2 goals a game over that stretch. The final numbers don’t look great but it’s important to keep this in mind. It’s not a vet we’re talking about.

The entire team went into a nasty slump, including Suzuki if I'm not mistaken.

So if our highest paid and best forward isn't scoring…

Yah, I guess my list is more to show that Slaf’s year one production isn’t a total outlier. Interesting that he has similar production to three other big players in Nolan, Lecavalier and Thornton.

I’m also going to assume that all 3 of those players played between 8-12 mins a game.

 

[waitin425]

Bro stop using 1 playersm in the last 25 years to fit your argument. Using Big Joe seriously?

Nah bro I used 2. There are others but those are the easiest.

 

[tazsub3]

If he stays healthy he will score 20 …
I add this to my previous predictions of dach becoming a number one c .
And newhook a 65 pts player within 2 years

 

[BLONG7]

Agreed. It is a rhetorical trick to assume your conclusion.



Apparently more fun for the fans than for the player or the club, when BOTH said they were not interested in doing the WJC AGAIN.



Or, another bad outcome, he ingrains more bad habits that he may get away with at weaker levels that he will have to unlearn when he comes back up.



I understand your argument. Objectively Slaf has the higher upside. But I don't care if we don't have exactly our 3 best forwards on 1 line, the next three on a second line and the 7th-9th on the third line.

I just want to see Slaf play with one of Suzuki, Dach or Monahan as his C. I would grudgingly accept if Newhook were his center as long as we had a good player on the RW, but his current placement with Dach is probably a better way to develop him. Just my opinion, of course. If Newhook at C is another project then maybe they should not be on the same line together. If Newhook at C is working and he can drive his line, then ok.


Agreed again. I just hope he can be healthy this year.

Would love to see the kid get a C like Suzuki/Dach or Money...............20 games, and see where we are. We have time to do something like this....

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The entire team went into a nasty slump, including Suzuki if I'm not mistaken.

So if our highest paid and best forward isn't scoring…


I’m also going to assume that all 3 of those players played between 8-12 mins a game.

Suzuki went in the tank. During that stretch Caufield scored a quarter of our goals. Without him we'd have averaged less than two goals a game. It was a brutal slump for the team.

Again, I'm not sure what Slaf is supposed to to there. And it's another reason why I think it might not be a bad idea to have him in the AHL this year. I still think we're going to be a bottom third team. If we have that kind of collapse it's really not good for him to be up.

I guess we'll see how it goes.

 

[BLONG7]

If he stays healthy he will score 20 …
I add this to my previous predictions of dach becoming a number one c .
And newhook a 65 pts player within 2 years

We have so many players, who are on the cusp of what we hope is an overall solid offense....
Let's hope the group grows together, and we are a solid team, who could add a big player like Vegas did with Eichel....
2 years from now should get fun again!!

 

[Deebs]

We have so many players, who are on the cusp of what we hope is an overall solid offense....
Let's hope the group grows together, and we are a solid team, who could add a big player like Vegas did with Eichel....
2 years from now should get fun again!!

Who are the big UFA's going into next year and the 2025 season?

 

[SlafCaufield]

slaf will put up 20-30 goals this year as long as they use him properly and get him with Cole and Suzuki

 

[tazsub3]

slaf will put up 20-30 goals this year as long as they use him properly and get him with Cole and Suzuki

I actually thibk will depend on playing with dach. Obviously I am very high on dach

 

[Miller Time]

Who are the big UFA's going into next year and the 2025 season?

At forward...

Nylander & Stamkos (& Flanders) in '24
Rantanen, Draisatl, Marner, Tavares, Crosby in '25

Doubt any of the actually hit UFA except perhaps Tavares & Stamkos if Bolts are out of the playoff picture by the deadline (seems unlikely, but with Vasi out, could be the case).

 

[Beaker]

If he stays healthy he will score 20 …
I add this to my previous predictions of dach becoming a number one c .
And newhook a 65 pts player within 2 years

Only way I see that happening is if Slaf picks up goals around the net a la Ryan Smyth… because I don’t see it in his release or hands.

 

[tazsub3]

Only way I see that happening is if Slaf picks up goals around the net a la Ryan Smith… because I don’t see it in his release or hands.

Well with his size he better lol . I think his release is above avg, shot needs work .
But such a physical phenomenon must get majority of his goal around the net for sure

 

[Jaynki]

Since the discussion about 1st season production is going full steam, here are some takeaways :

-We can't draw any conclusions from a player 1st season, as good or as bad as he was. Evidenced by many, many examples that went every way from every starting point. Nothing is conclusive, even less predictive at this point.

-Usually, its during the 2nd season in most cases that we can start to identify a trend of where a player is going. Hughes, Lecavalier, Draisaitl, Thornton.... despite sucking in their D+1.. they had massive growth in their D+2.

-the biggest red flag is not sucking in your 1st season. That is meaningless. The biggest red flag is when a player stagnate. Yakupov, KK, Lafreniere, Galchenyuk... all had D+2 equal or worst then their D+1. Lack of growth is the ultimate red flag.

Now, listen, Slafkovsky may bust and he may stagnate and we may have ruined him, nobody knows. But when looking at things without any emotional involvement (that means without any comparison to KK/Galchenyuk or the Wright bias or the Cooley FOMO).

So when looking at things without any emotional involvement, discarding Slaf right now or simply capping his ceiling as a 50 points player is betting against a player with his tools and potential at the timing were the majority of the player with a similar profile exploded.

I would argue that its really the time now to just wait and see how things evolve. We will have a wayyyyyyy clearer picture in like 4 months.

Since there seems to be a consensus here about Slafkovsky being a bad pick and Bobrov sucking. Personally, i prefer to go the contrarian way and bet agressively on massive upside on the timing(window) of maximum growth.

 

[salbutera]

Slafkovsky has little to no impact on the team winning right now unless he has a big jump in production this year. Putting up 20-30 points bouncing between the second and third line is pretty much nothing. Any stop gaps are going to put up those kind of numbers getting those kind of minutes. If Slaf puts up more then that, it was a highly successful season and nobody should care if the team is moving up in the standings because it means our young players are growing which is what we want in the third year of a rebuild. We can’t be in the basement forever.

MSL doesn’t believe in positon or line numbering - he does not look at his team consisting of 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines instead 12-forwards

That’s the concept he developed with Mid Fairfield Rangers youth hockey program w Trevor Zegras father, and skills coach Eric Nates - position-less , no line numbering concept. It’s about exploiting natural strengths of his players & forcing IQ expansion.

Starting this season I expect to start seeing what will seem very “odd” deployment of his players based on the stringent structural deployment, Habs fans have traditionally witnessed

Whether his concept will work in the NHL ecosystem remains to be seen…

 

[HabzSauce]

Since the discussion about 1st season production is going full steam, here are some takeaways :

-We can't draw any conclusions from a player 1st season, as good or as bad as he was. Evidenced by many, many examples that went every way from every starting point. Nothing is conclusive, even less predictive at this point.

-Usually, its during the 2nd season in most cases that we can start to identify a trend of where a player is going. Hughes, Lecavalier, Draisaitl, Thornton.... despite sucking in their D+1.. they had massive growth in their D+2.

-the biggest red flag is not sucking in your 1st season. That is meaningless. The biggest red flag is when a player stagnate. Yakupov, KK, Lafreniere, Galchenyuk... all had D+2 equal or worst then their D+1. Lack of growth is the ultimate red flag.

Now, listen, Slafkovsky may bust and he may stagnate and we may have ruined him, nobody knows. But when looking at things without any emotional involvement (that means without any comparison to KK/Galchenyuk or the Wright bias or the Cooley FOMO).

So when looking at things without any emotional involvement, discarding Slaf right now or simply capping his ceiling as a 50 points player is betting against a player with his tools and potential at the timing were the majority of the player with a similar profile exploded.

I would argue that its really the time now to just wait and see how things evolve. We will have a wayyyyyyy clearer picture in like 4 months.

Since there seems to be a consensus here about Slafkovsky being a bad pick and Bobrov sucking. Personally, i prefer to go the contrarian way and bet agressively on massive upside on the timing(window) of maximum growth.

Me too.

He's way too young to write off. I get that some don't like him as a player, but nobody here is a psychic. And it's funny to see people using his 39 games as an 18 year old to try and justify why he is a bust. It's fun to compare to guys like jumbo joe, Lecavalier, etc but comparisons this early shouldn't be taken so seriously. Context is very different for all these guys anyways.

For Slaf, The skills are there. The size is there. He has a lot of work to do especially on the basics. But one thing I don't ever see brought up that gives me the most confidence is his inner beast.

Very subjective I know, but dude looks like he has a burning fire inside of him sometimes. His first NHL goal is a great example of what I mean. Slaf just looks SO intense to me. I love that.

Combo of intensity, self awareness and willingness to learn. Those are a fantastic combination of non hockey skills to have. He's got all three, so I'm not too worried for now. He needs more reps, hopefully we see improvement this year and can start having more optimistic talks about his future as a pro player.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Scouting reports are similar to what you read here. Some scouts thought he had great IQ, others questioned it for various reasons.

I'm in the "I'm super puzzled" category. I've seen clips of Slaf in his draft year and my conclusion was that him skipping levels because of his size made him miss basic hockey teaching (keep your head up, scanning, positioning, etc), but he learned other things just fine like speed shifting to manipulate dmen (he was doing that in Liiga) or his Liiga team systems.

After one season, you can see the improvement with the basic stuff. So his capacity to learn and apply looks good, but his total knowledge and reps his still deficient. It's going to be a slow process but once he's scanning and mapping the ice at a proper speed, we will probably see a bigger jump in his game.

I think he’s completely lost without the puck both offensively and defensively, so I’m going to go with low IQ.