Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[Shawnathon]

The worst top drafted forward in modern hockey history?? Louis Leblanc says hold my beer.........Nolan Patrick, says hey Louis I can take that for you..............there are a ton of Top drafted players who did NOT even make the NHL.........players who get drafted highly often take years to develop................
Are you watching the games? Have you seen what he has done for Suzuki and Caufield in the last 7-8 games?
Everyone has said he is a project......coming along very nicely at this point.
This will take 2-3-4 seasons and we will be happy with what he gives us.

For every Jonathan Toews there’s a Cam Barker. You have to hope your scouts gets it right.

 

[jrom]

I wasn't in the draft room, I didn't have access to the tapes or the interviews. From where I'm sitting at the time leading into the 2022 Draft the Habs needed a 1C, 1D, and a 1G. It's been two drafts since and despite handling five first round picks and three second round picks over that time, the Habs still need a 1C, 1D, and 1G (notwithstanding the undersized but very promising Lane Hutson).

In 2022, if Wright was a DND, and Cooley was deemed "undersized", Nemec and Jiricek were available and very well ranked across the scouting world. It isn't incumbant on a Habs fan to nail draft picks, it's the job of the guys paid to do it. Gorton and Bobrov's record speaks for itself.

Today, Slaf, NHL sophomore, ranks 22nd in PPG among rookies, and 17th in points among rookies, and 5th in PPG among his 2022 draft cohort (all rookies but him), and 4th in points among his 2022 draft cohort (all rookies but him) behind a d-man (Mintyukov) and a second round round pick (Poitras).

So no, he's not arrived and there is plenty to evaluate as time goes on. His growth is a welcome change from his earlier NHL career and long may it continue. If you want to join the celebrations be my guest.

I'm interested in evaluating how the Habs pick prospects, how they develop prospects, and how they can improve their process. We don't stand a chance to win anything until this is confirmed. Slafkovsky hasn't confirmed anything, so celebrations come later... unless you have a vested interest in sticking it to the mean ol' grinch ReHabs, in which case you'll celebrate Slafkovsky's every poke-check and tag him every time Slaf picks up a point (of which he's on pace to pick up a whole 29 of them over 82 games).

A wall of text to deflect a simple question “who would you have drafted ?”

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I suggested to take a minute in order to build up the case that he's actually arrived.

And that would be fine if it weren’t coming from someone who had been asking if we had made the biggest mistake in franchise history since game one. It’s hilarious that you’re NOW telling people to wait and see.

 

[DAChampion]

The ganging up on ReHabs is cringe.

 

[habdynasty]

Trolling a teenager a thousand times is cringe.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Slaf has not arrived yet.

Slaf is coming.

Still has some fundamentals to work on. The board work is there, play making… he looks good and has been our best player on quite a few nights in recent weeks. 4 points in his last five is a nice little spurt. Hopefully points aren’t as hard to come by in the new year because he should have more than he does. As many have said, it’s a marathon not a sprint. I just hope we continue to see two steps forward one step back. Just glad to see him go up a level this year. Great to see him coming along as he has.

 

[DAChampion]

Trolling a teenager a thousand times is cringe.

I hope no Habs' player ever reads these boards.

 

[ReHabs]

And that would be fine if it weren’t coming from someone who had been asking if we had made the biggest mistake in franchise history since game one. It’s hilarious that you’re NOW telling people to wait and see.

If it’s premature to call him a bust (which I’ve never done) then it is also too early to declare the matter settled, is the point.

It wouldn’t kill this fanbase to have some standards and sticking to them.

 

[ReHabs]

A wall of text to deflect a simple question “who would you have drafted ?”

Well, leading up to the draft I, like most of the fanbase, wanted Wright despite his inferior draft season performance. He was still ranked 1 or challenging to keep 1 for a reason. Afterwards, when it was revealed he was strange and unconvincing in his interview, which makes him a DND, I would’ve gone with my second choice Jiricek (if his injury wasn’t too bad) or Nemec. We needed a 1D prospect very much and a “bad draft year” is the ideal draft in which to pick one up.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I'm interested in evaluating how the Habs pick prospects, how they develop prospects, and how they can improve their process. We don't stand a chance to win anything until this is confirmed. Slafkovsky hasn't confirmed anything, so celebrations come later... unless you have a vested interest in sticking it to the mean ol' grinch ReHabs, in which case you'll celebrate Slafkovsky's every poke-check and tag him every time Slaf picks up a point (of which he's on pace to pick up a whole 29 of them over 82 games).

Pace is a funny thing.

If you use the pace of the last 33 games, he is on pace for 29. But for 22 games of that he was playing with a 3rd line C, at about 14 minutes with scant PP2 time.

If we use the last 2 games, to take the other extreme, he will reach 29 points in less than 9 games! Won't happen of course, but you know, the pace.........

So what will Slaf's pace actually be if he stays on the 1st line and on the PP1?

He has 5 points in 9 games, all in the last 4. He also had a shootout winner. At 5 every 9 games for the rest of the year, he would finish with 39 points.

If I had to guess I would go with 5.5 points per 9 games, finishing up with 42 points.

 

[Kennerback]

The ganging up on ReHabs is cringe.

As much as it pissed me off to hear it from Day 1 from Re-Habs, his offense was a problem. Yeah he’s a kid. I get that. But his offense and shot release are worse than any pre-draft prospect report had said. On the fact he never shoots on net, I didn’t even know this even existed.

There were serious growing pains. We’re in late Joe Thornton development curve territory and on the verge of crossing in unchartered water. I still love him. I still hope the sky is the limit.

 

[417]

The ganging up on ReHabs is cringe.

If you have strong (and way premature) takes, you gotta be able to face the music.

You think ReHabs won't respawn the next time Slafkovksy goes into a slump?

 

[DAChampion]

It also wasn't just ReHabs expressing skepticism.

There was a poll showing Slafkovsky is the worst No1 of the past twenty years.

And an "advanced statistician" made a pretty graphic saying that Slaf would likely end up replacement level.

If Slaf actually turns out well, I think it shows a general failure of understanding and one we can learn from.

What I think it shows is that a lot of people provide cookie cutter analysis, they just extrapolate from well documented patterns without having any actual understanding, obviously we all do this sometimes but some do it more than others, the point is that extrapolations don't work for unicorns.

 

[417]

As much as it pissed me off to hear it from Day 1 from Re-Habs, his offense was a problem. Yeah he’s a kid. I get that. But his offense and shot release are worse than any pre-draft prospect report had said. On the fact he never shoots on net, I didn’t even know this even existed.

There were serious growing pains. We’re in late Joe Thornton development curve territory and on the verge of crossing in unchartered water. I still love him. I still hope the sky is the limit.

Agreed.

But they didn't/don’t belong to Slafkovsky. They belong to fans who clamour for development but really don't have the patience to see that process out.

 

[Sorinth]

The ganging up on ReHabs is cringe.

Is it more cringe then the 1000+ posts they've made bashing Slafkovksy?

 

[417]

It also wasn't just ReHabs expressing skepticism.

There was a poll showing Slafkovsky is the worst No1 of the past twenty years.

A healthy dose of criticism is fine, in fact it should accompany 95% of all players drafted.

And an "advanced statistician" made a pretty graphic saying that Slaf would likely end up replacement level.

If Slaf actually turns out well, I think it shows a general failure of understanding and one we can learn from.

There are way more examples that preceded Slafkovsky that can be used to show there's a general failure of understanding of how advanced stats can be beneficial.

These days they're used to prop up narratives and not provide a snapshot of the current picture. The predictive features are way overstated.

What I think it shows is that a lot of people provide cookie cutter analysis, they just extrapolate from well documented patterns without having any actual understanding, obviously we all do this sometimes but some do it more than others, the point is that extrapolations don't work for unicorns.

Agreed.

 

[BenchBrawl]

People trying to draw comparisons with Slafkovsky when the fact is he's one of the most unique young players I have ever seen.

A mystery box.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

If it’s premature to call him a bust (which I’ve never done) then it is also too early to declare the matter settled, is the point.

It wouldn’t kill this fanbase to have some standards and sticking to them.

“I never called him a bust. I just said he was catastrophically deficient in the brain.”

 

[SlafySZN]

“I never called him a bust. I just said he was catastrophically deficient in the brain.”

‘’I never called him a bust, just that he had low hockey IQ, the worst 1st overall ever, won’t ever score points because he scored 10 in liiga, but no, not a bust’’

 

[ReHabs]

“I never called him a bust. I just said he was catastrophically deficient in the brain.”

You’ve never heard a player’s hockey IQ criticized? I’ve never made or seen anyone make any comment about his general intelligence — we have no frame of reference about that, it’s simply not on the table.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

As much as it pissed me off to hear it from Day 1 from Re-Habs, his offense was a problem. Yeah he’s a kid. I get that. But his offense and shot release are worse than any pre-draft prospect report had said. On the fact he never shoots on net, I didn’t even know this even existed.

There were serious growing pains. We’re in late Joe Thornton development curve territory and on the verge of crossing in unchartered water. I still love him. I still hope the sky is the limit.

Fine to criticize him. Fine to think we drafted the wrong guy. That’s a normal part of discourse and is what this forum is all about.

And, we still won’t know how good he’ll be for a few years. A lot can happen between now and then.

I am encouraged though that he’s improved as much as he has. He’s got a long way to go but his play has improved so much since moving higher in the lineup.

He hasn’t even played 82 games yet. Maybe let’s give him a chance to show what he can do.

 

[Jabba11]

People trying to draw comparisons with Slafkovsky when the fact is he's one of the most unique young players I have ever seen.

A mystery box.

100% agreed!

And that can be reflected through his development as well. Might not be offensively encouraging at first but he is steadily becoming our best player and one that creates the most. I’m very excited to see him succeed for us for the rest of his career.

I think his potential is limitless and his impact to the game will be unmatched in the league

 

[417]

Delete

 

[Miller Time]

It also wasn't just ReHabs expressing skepticism.

There was a poll showing Slafkovsky is the worst No1 of the past twenty years.

And an "advanced statistician" made a pretty graphic saying that Slaf would likely end up replacement level.

If Slaf actually turns out well, I think it shows a general failure of understanding and one we can learn from.

What I think it shows is that a lot of people provide cookie cutter analysis, they just extrapolate from well documented patterns without having any actual understanding, obviously we all do this sometimes but some do it more than others, the point is that extrapolations don't work for unicorns.

Indeed...

There is a nuance to assessing athlete development that many fans, and even many pros, just aren't able to grasp.

Some posters are so incapable of it that they mock the very word "nuance", as if it's some boogeyman.

Much of what we have seen from Slaf over the past 2 months was predictable, but not if a person's analysis was limited to stat watching and superficial evaluation of the on ice outcomes.

A young player under massive external pressure who shows the resolve to stick with the process of refining his approach to the game, even when the outcomes are worse than he might be able to achieve by relying on the things that got him to the big show, is a massively positive sign & predictor of future success. Just need the patience to allow the changes to take hold & become habitual.

If anything, it's evenore exciting that he's turned a corner this fast, less than 1 full season in. It's quite remarkable really, and bodes well to his ceiling being extremely high. That kind of dedication to improvement is not as common among pro athletes as fans tend to think... Many guys ride early talent/opportunity/advantage and largely coast/do the minimum to live the pro lifestyle.

Crosby isn't Crosby BC he was a "natural talent", he's the player he is because of a rare drive to continuous improvement combined with the talent for & love of the game he started out with... If Slaf's mental game & drive is anything close to that, we're in for a treat over the next decade +

Future is bright

 

[Hansman]

So is Eli.

But I suspect Slaf arrives earlier.



Apologies to Three Dog Night.

After reading your post I listened to An Old Fashion Love Song .