Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[Lafleurs Guy]

It’s concerning he isn’t producing more.

Honestly, it really isn’t. Not at this stage anyway. What matters is that he’s playing great hockey right now. There are adjustments to be made - shooting more is most obvious - but he’s doing really well. And part of his lack of production can be attributed to CC’s slump.

The points will come as he develops.

 

[ReHabs]

He did!

It’s all about who the real Slaf is. Is the Liiga Slaf the real one or the other?

You could be right but we still have those examples of dominance in the international tourneys. I’m not saying that’s a guarantee but we can’t completely hand waive that either. I mean you can lol.

I see it. Some others do. Some don’t.

Would you be that shocked if he becomes a star? Genuinely asking

We can refer to his pre-draft pedigree all you want but it's just as bad as it is good. His infamous Liiga production is as brutal as his tournament production is impressive. Do you agree? I don't refer to his Liiga stats any more because it's in the past.

At this point the past should be weighed less than the present performances. After 69 NHL games over two seasons we have a rich phenotype of Slafkovsky now. He's playing better than I've ever seen him.

Would I be shocked if he becomes a star? Define 'star' and I'll give you an honest answer.

I mean, there is no debate any more. He's in the NHL. We don't have any disagreements in kind (Condition A vs Condition B), but rather disagreements in degrees (Condition A vs Condition A). He's not going to develop elsewhere, that disagreement is settled: I thought the new-management Habs wouldn't rush an incredibly raw, self-proclaimed 'project' player to the the NHL... I was wrong! I lost!

The question is now simply how far he will develop on his current track in the NHL. You can't impose on me to think he will become a 100pt forward as I can't impose on you to think he will be the worst 1OA in modern history (not that I necessarily feel this way... yet). We simply don't know. We have stats and models but they're descriptive not predictive.

If he becomes a relevant, useful player for the Habs in the NHL, which he already is showing he can be, we can't be unsatisfied with him in the end. Draft positions don't matter after a while. If Slaf manages to be relevant to the success of our team, that's good. Most of my ire is and continues to be directed at Kent Hughes and team. I distrust them and their decision making and I feel like they've squandered a rebuild opportunity worse than at any point under Bergevin. Slafkovsky himself, I wish him the best even if he turns out to be a let down for a 1OA.

 

[Jaaanosik]

Ignoring the Ds, I had Cooley ahead. Now I have Slaf. Slaf helping out in every facet of the game with a ceiling of 50 points. I have Cooley and Wright both toping out at 70 points, with Cooley more assist heavy and Wright more goal heavy. Their contribution mostly because of their points.

With that said, it’s early and always changing, and I might see more in one or another next month.

If Slaf stays on the first line and CC starts scoring PPG then Slaf can be PPG player as well.

 

[waitin425]

You can't impose on me to think he will become a 100pt forward as I can't impose on you to think he will be the worst 1OA in modern history (not that I necessarily feel this way... yet). We simply don't know.

Why can't we just agree that he will end up somewhere in the middle of that? The options on the extreme ends of the spectrum are looking less likely by the day. Both the bust and 100 point option.

As it stands today, it is completely realistic to picture a consistent 70-85 point power forward who uses his size, reach and strength to his advantage and create time/space for his teammates. A PPG power forward with his size and puck protection will be one of our best forwards that most of us have ever seen in our lifetime.

Byfield is having his breakout in his D4 year. I can't imagine in any scenario that Slaf slows down his current development track that he is on. He is on a steep upward climb. Wait until December of 2025 to see where this kid is at. It is exciting times.

 

[badfish]

Wait until December of 2025 to see where this kid is at. It is exciting times.

Hmmm no thank-you I'd prefer instant gratification please

 

[DAChampion]

View attachment 785284

Better answer than what Shane Wright said about generational forwards.

 

[SlafySZN]

Better answer than what Shane Wright said about generational forwards.

I remember that

 

[417]

Honestly, it really isn’t. Not at this stage anyway. What matters is that he’s playing great hockey right now. There are adjustments to be made - shooting more is most obvious - but he’s doing really well. And part of his lack of production can be attributed to CC’s slump.

The points will come as he develops.

It's odd to me that people think that accumulating points is somehow a single player's, sole responsibility. As though it's not mostly circumstantial and often dependent on with who, when and how much a player is playing.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It's odd to me that people think that accumulating points is somehow a single player's, sole responsibility. As though it's not mostly circumstantial and often dependent on with who, when and how much a player is playing.

Slaf could also have a lot more points if he’d just shoot the puck. When that starts happening I think we’ll see a bounce as well.

 

[DAChampion]

It turns out that the performance of Suzuki and Caulfield with Slafkovsky on their line is comparable to how they did with Monahan and Dach.

Encouraging Canadiens Statistics With Slafkovsky On Top Line

The Montreal Canadiens have something interesting brewing on the top line. Historically, finding a linemate to play alongside centre Nick Suzuki and winger Cole Caufield has been a challenge for head coach Martin St-Louis. The only two players who produced reasonably healthy results last season...

montrealhockeynow.com

 

[Andy]

Slaf could also have a lot more points if he’d just shoot the puck. When that starts happening I think we’ll see a bounce as well.

It's odd because he could easily have 6-7 more points this season if Anderson and Caufield weren't absolutely snake bitten while he played with them. Especially Anderson.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Honestly, it really isn’t. Not at this stage anyway. What matters is that he’s playing great hockey right now. There are adjustments to be made - shooting more is most obvious - but he’s doing really well. And part of his lack of production can be attributed to CC’s slump.

The points will come as he develops.

I like how you quoted one sentence of my post. And yes, it is concerning.

 

[SOLR]

There’s a lot of attacking posters that bring up his stats, but they exist and they aren’t just an incredible streak of bad luck.

He has the worst release and finish of any #1 pick I’ve ever seen and looks like a deer in a headlight if he’s got time and space in the middle slot with the puck on his stick. Worse finish than Yakupov, worse than Lafrenière, worse than Daigle, worse than anyone... However IMO, those were bad picks and to me Slaf looks like a good pick because he brings many other things to the table than points. See Guy Carbonneau,

I wish with all my heart that he fixes his shooting problems and he pulverizes 50 points, but right now it’s already a massive extrapolation to think he can turn Chad Kilger numbers during his bad years into 50 points even playing with the best players on the team. Josh Anderson had more than 50 points only once in his career.

No, he doesn't, not at all.

He plays in low-definition because of a lack of awareness; he doesn't lack the skill to do high-definition things (look at how he plays when he doesn't have to think about being aware, like in a shootout situation). He's also hard to play against because he overwhelms most NHLers physically. He needs to get better at a few constructed plays like Drai had to get better, and this will increase his output a lot because he has the skills to execute the actual play (we've seen it in the few goals he scored, they were set plays where he doesn't need to think). He's been lacking the awareness to enter the constructed play situation, and I think we are seeing that develop very well this year. His awareness vs. last year doubled, it's quite an incredible progress and why they are using him with Suz/Caufield a lot now... I see the 80-point potential with a first-line center that can distribute and find him in those situations. Btw. that's probably not Suzuki in the grand scheme of things.

At the same time, he was never going to be a 50-goal scorer; he's more a playmaker. So if he gets to 80 points, it will be 25 goals - 55 assist type, with most of the assists being secondary and earned in the corners.

Looking forward to seeing him with Dach for a whole year next year with this new awareness and a 20-year-old body at this point.

 

[Goalfield13]

Right now, he's using his frame to win pucks. He is playing the role of paymaker for now, which is fine. It may take time to develop his shot, but he really doesn't need to if he would crash the net more. He often goes to the net and then passes off. He can learn a few things from Gallagher and Anderson in that regard. With Suzuki and Caufield as teammates, he doesn't need to have a great release or shot. He just needs to learn when to pass it and when to keep it and crash the net.

 

[ReHabs]

Why can't we just agree that he will end up somewhere in the middle of that? The options on the extreme ends of the spectrum are looking less likely by the day. Both the bust and 100 point option.

Sometimes things don't fall in the middle. We don't know. I'd rather stick to "we don't know" than assume certainty the he will become a XX point player. Why? Because he doesn't fit any model of any successful trajectory I've seen.

As it stands today, it is completely realistic to picture a consistent 70-85 point power forward who uses his size, reach and strength to his advantage and create time/space for his teammates. A PPG power forward with his size and puck protection will be one of our best forwards that most of us have ever seen in our lifetime.

That forward would certainly be the most important forward we would have seen in Habs colours in the current generation. I disagree that it is realistic to think Slafkovsky will be that forward. If he becomes a consistent 75-80pt power forward it would not have been a realistic call but rather a lucky one. Let's hope we get lucky.

In my career as a Habs fan I do not feel particularly lucky.

Byfield is having his breakout in his D4 year. I can't imagine in any scenario that Slaf slows down his current development track that he is on. He is on a steep upward climb. Wait until December of 2025 to see where this kid is at. It is exciting times.

Sure. I don't think we need to discuss it at all. There is no disagreement to be had -- someone can say that Slaf will emulate the career trajectory of Byfield, Thornton, Lecavalier, Rantanen, whatever name you want to pull out. We can only say "sure, why not". I'm not going to disagree any more, nothing I say will deter you and nothing you say will change my mind. In terms of evidence, I see player on pace for less than 30pts in his D+2. You wanna say Slafkovsky is the next Jagr. Okay fine, he is the next Jagr. I hope to see it soon.

I think those who keep hyping up his every pass and shoulder check are irrational but even then, we'll see. Maybe they see the Matrix Code and they see Slafkovsky doing things so good that it keeps him off the scoresheet. Maybe Slafkovsky has transcended the scoresheet entirely.

 

[Lshap]

It's tough comparing Slafkovsky to any other top pick we've had. He started off looking worse than Michael McCarron, but is slowly moving up the ladder. He's now showing more skill than Kotkaniemi and has even outproduced him since the end of October. I'm still hoping Slaf can finish this season with 30 pts, but I'll be happy with less if the skills start showing.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I like how you quoted one sentence of my post. And yes, it is concerning.

I quoted the one sentence so the reply would go straight to the point. You are of course free to be as concerned as you wish.

Personally, I’m not. I know that in a few years nobody is going to remember how many points he got as a 19 year old. His game’s improving and I know he should have more points than he does. It’s a marathon not a sprint and it will even out in the long run.

 

[Colezuki]

Sometimes things don't fall in the middle. We don't know. I'd rather stick to "we don't know" than assume certainty the he will become a XX point player. Why? Because he doesn't fit any model of any successful trajectory I've seen.

That forward would certainly be the most important forward we would have seen in Habs colours in the current generation. I disagree that it is realistic to think Slafkovsky will be that forward. If he becomes a consistent 75-80pt power forward it would not have been a realistic call but rather a lucky one. Let's hope we get lucky.

In my career as a Habs fan I do not feel particularly lucky.

Sure. I don't think we need to discuss it at all. There is no disagreement to be had -- someone can say that Slaf will emulate the career trajectory of Byfield, Thornton, Lecavalier, Rantanen, whatever name you want to pull out. We can only say "sure, why not". I'm not going to disagree any more, nothing I say will deter you and nothing you say will change my mind. In terms of evidence, I see player on pace for less than 30pts in his D+2. You wanna say Slafkovsky is the next Jagr. Okay fine, he is the next Jagr. I hope to see it soon.

I think those who keep hyping up his every pass and shoulder check are irrational but even then, we'll see. Maybe they see the Matrix Code and they see Slafkovsky doing things so good that it keeps him off the scoresheet. Maybe Slafkovsky has transcended the scoresheet entirely.

The issue many of us have with you is your tone, until the last few weeks many myself included have preached patience and that he’s young and it will come in time and you have spent the better part of the last year plus insinuating he’s a meat head who should never have been drafted. It’s looking like you were wrong and rather then even suggest such a thing your creating a scenario where your saying the two extremes still exist and nit picking on small details in his game that are still likely to improve given his age. Is he going to be a bust, no, is he going to be a generational forward, also no but you putting that argument out there is disenguous when a 70-80 pt modern power forward is closer to generational then a bust and it’s a bad faith argument.

My take at the time of his drafting was unless they have a plan for2c take wright or Cooley, they turned around 4 picks later and took Dach which alleviated my concerns and I can see slaf now being the player we will need come playoff time

 

[Kennerback]

No, he doesn't, not at all.

He plays in low-definition because of a lack of awareness; he doesn't lack the skill to do high-definition things (look at how he plays when he doesn't have to think about being aware, like in a shootout situation). He's also hard to play against because he overwhelms most NHLers physically. He needs to get better at a few constructed plays like Drai had to get better, and this will increase his output a lot because he has the skills to execute the actual play (we've seen it in the few goals he scored, they were set plays where he doesn't need to think). He's been lacking the awareness to enter the constructed play situation, and I think we are seeing that develop very well this year. His awareness vs. last year doubled, it's quite an incredible progress and why they are using him with Suz/Caufield a lot now... I see the 80-point potential with a first-line center that can distribute and find him in those situations. Btw. that's probably not Suzuki in the grand scheme of things.

At the same time, he was never going to be a 50-goal scorer; he's more a playmaker. So if he gets to 80 points, it will be 25 goals - 55 assist type, with most of the assists being secondary and earned in the corners.

Looking forward to seeing him with Dach for a whole year next year with this new awareness and a 20-year-old body at this poin

He plays in low-definition because of a lack of awareness; he doesn't lack the skill to do high-definition things (look at how he plays when he doesn't have to think about being aware, like in a shootout situation).

I think one aspect of his offensive game he looks excellent in, especially for a guy his size, is deeking goalies. We agree. But technically his release sucks. 1- He needs to pull the stick back or adjust it while he transfers his body weight. 2- He can’t tweak his blade position to not hit legs or sticks. 3- Intead of ever going five-hole, he’s constantly missing the net left and right.

He's also hard to play against because he overwhelms most NHLers physically.

100% agree.

He needs to get better at a few constructed plays like Drai had to get better, and this will increase his output a lot because he has the skills to execute the actual play (we've seen it in the few goals he scored, they were set plays where he doesn't need to think).

Yes, this will help too. Experience and time will play a factor.

He's been lacking the awareness to enter the constructed play situation, and I think we are seeing that develop very well this year. His awareness vs. last year doubled, it's quite an incredible progress and why they are using him with Suz/Caufield a lot now...

agreed

I see the 80-point potential with a first-line center that can distribute and find him in those situations. Btw. that's probably not Suzuki in the grand scheme of things.

Slaf’s going to have to take on the playmaking role on that line as Suzuki is not much of a playmaking Center.

At the same time, he was never going to be a 50-goal scorer; he's more a playmaker. So if he gets to 80 points, it will be 25 goals - 55 assist type, with most of the assists being secondary and earned in the corners.

Agreed. But to get there he’ll need to shoot way more, so goalies don’t automatically get their body square cutting the angles on Suzuki or Caufield because they know Slaf won’t shoot. If NHL goalies bother taking a glimpse at NHL Edge before a game with the Habs, they’ll realize Slaf will never shoot mid-slot which is the bread and butter zone of NHL snipers.

Looking forward to seeing him with Dach for a whole year next year with this new awareness and a 20-year-old body at this point.

sure.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I disagree that it is realistic to think Slafkovsky will be that forward. If he becomes a consistent 75-80pt power forward it would not have been a realistic call but rather a lucky one. Let's hope we get lucky.

Obvious attempt to set oneself up as always right. If your judgment were to play out wrong, you can clearly refuse to consider that maybe it is because you missed something that others saw or understood, but just chock it up to bad luck for you, fluke for them.

Seriously.

This is not some guy drafted in the fifth round, passed over 140 times including four times by the team that drafted him.

It's a guy who half of all scouts surveyed had as number 1 overall, and the balance mostly at #2.

CLEARLY it would not be a fluke if the player turned into a 75 point scorer in time.

 

[Jaynki]

If he becomes a consistent 75-80pt power forward it would not have been a realistic call but rather a lucky one. Let's hope we get lucky.

I understand what you mean ReHabs but its actually the opposite.

Just note that by "lucky", in the following exercice, i mean less probable, not most wonderful.

Since 2000, 15/17 forward picked 1st oa have had a 70-85pts season. Two have not. (I add Lafreniere in the category that did not and i add Bedard in those that did, i excluded Slafkovsky from the data.).

The "lucky" call is that he will fall in the 2/17 category and not the 15/17, that would be the norm.

So yeah, if he never have a PPG season, we would be extremely unlucky and it would suck, a lot.

Also, for this macro exercice, we have to ignore all subjectivity because at best its only misleading. For example, Lafreniere had a massive pedigree, Yakupov had one of the strongest start. Hughes started very slow.

I think its still in the statistical, probalistic realm that Slafkovsky is a PPG player at some point in his career.

 

[le_sean]

If he develops as he was projected to at draft time, it’ll be lucky. That’s a new one. Really doubling down on a complete refusal to admit to being wrong.

 

[ReHabs]

The issue many of us have with you is your tone, until the last few weeks many myself included have preached patience and that he’s young and it will come in time and you have spent the better part of the last year plus insinuating he’s a meat head who should never have been drafted. It’s looking like you were wrong and rather then even suggest such a thing your creating a scenario where your saying the two extremes still exist and nit picking on small details in his game that are still likely to improve given his age. Is he going to be a bust, no, is he going to be a generational forward, also no but you putting that argument out there is disenguous when a 70-80 pt modern power forward is closer to generational then a bust and it’s a bad faith argument.

Even before the 2022 Draft it was said that not one of the top prospects should be expected to be a 1st liner. You tell me if a 75-80pt POWER FORWARD is first liner material or not -- I think any 75-80pt power forward is not just a run-of-the-mill first liner but an exceedingly valuable one. So no, based on his prospect profile, the conversations around the 2022 draft, and evidence so far, I don't think it's realistic to expect a 75-80pt power forward from Slafkovsky.

Be that as it may, you're entitled to expect such a player from such a prospect. You're not entitled to demand that I think it's realistic to think the guy who couldn't score 11pts in Liiga can consistently get 80pts in the NHL. We disagree, we can agree to disagree. I love disagreements. Some commentators take shots at me every time Slafkovsky picks up a point (thankfully for my ego this is a very rare occasion) -- to me that's perfectly fine and in good fun.

Obvious attempt to set oneself up as always right. If your judgment were to play out wrong, you can clearly refuse to consider that maybe it is because you missed something that others saw or understood, but just chock it up to bad luck for you, fluke for them.

The evidence (as much as it exists or I've seen) does not point toward a future 75-80pt power forward in the NHL. Please provide the evidence to support your vision.

Seriously.

This is not some guy drafted in the fifth round, passed over 140 times including four times by the team that drafted him.

Sure seems like people treat him that way, celebrating his every poke check...

It's a guy who half of all scouts surveyed had as number 1 overall, and the balance mostly at #2.

From the notoriously questionable 2022 draft cohort, now you want to turn around and say it's perfectly normal to expect big things from Slafkovsky? Fine, be my guest! When will you start to demand production from him? Most other 1OAs and 2OAs produce more than 20pts in their sophomore NHL season. Slafkovsky is dead last and trending to stay there.

CLEARLY it would not be a fluke if the player turned into a 75 point scorer in time.

I don't see you correcting all the commentators who have repeatedly insisted they'd be happy with a 50-60pt forward.

I understand what you mean ReHabs but its actually the opposite.

Just note that by "lucky", in the following exercice, i mean less probable, not most wonderful.

Since 2000, 15/17 forward picked 1st oa have had a 70-85pts season. Two have not. (I add Lafreniere in the category that did not and i add Bedard in those that did, i excluded Slafkovsky from the data.). [ReHabs Comment: Fair]

The "lucky" call is that he will fall in the 2/17 category and not the 15/17, that would be the norm. [ReHabs Comment: Disagree with this assumption. See below.]

So yeah, if he never have a PPG season, we would be extremely unlucky and it would suck, a lot.

Also, for this macro exercice, we have to ignore all subjectivity because at best its only misleading. For example, Lafreniere had a massive pedigree, Yakupov had one of the strongest start. Hughes started very slow.

I think its still in the statistical, probalistic realm that Slafkovsky is a PPG player at some point in his career.

Consistent 75-80pt player =/= hits PPG once in his career. I think we could all agree the latter is more realistic. Expecting a consistent 75-80pt power forward from this player is not very realistic imo but that's just my opinion, we can't possible argue about this, can we?

As for the 2/17 vs 15/17 break down, I've looked at the stats, as you know, as of right now Slaf is dead last in PPG in D+1 and D+2. He's 1/17 right now. If you add 2OAs who were the Top Drafted Forward, he's 1/23. Dead last in PPG. The average Top Drafted Forward of the past 23 drafts had a career pace of 61pts/season after their sophomore season. Slafkovsky has about a third of that right now, on pace for around 21.

If there are only two buckets, he doesn't belong to the one that has McDavid, Matthews, and MacKinnon. Frankly, I don't think it's fair to compare them (but this also means it's not fair or realistic to expect 75-80pts a season from Slafkovsky).

Right now, I think he can turn out to be a worthwhile player playing on any of the top3 lines like a Chris Kuntiz-type but he shouldn't have been the 1OA.

 

[BaseballCoach]

If he develops as he was projected to at draft time, it’ll be lucky. That’s a new one. Really doubling down on a complete refusal to admit to being wrong.

With @ReHabs it's not just his constant broadcast of Slaf's low point totals so far that irks.

To me, the most irksome point is that his position from the beginning is that Slaf is a low-IQ hockey player who can't make any good plays and sucked in Finland. He said this before the start of Slaf's rookie season, so he sees the low point totals as CONFIRMATION of his minority take on the guy and PROOF that he was smarter than all the scouts.

So of COURSE if their projection plays out, the professional scouts were flukey-lucky.

But this position requires one to look straight at the games being played and blindly pretending that Slaf really has no IQ and really can't make NHL plays. Yeah sure.

 

[ReHabs]

If he develops as he was projected to at draft time, it’ll be lucky. That’s a new one. Really doubling down on a complete refusal to admit to being wrong.

What was he projected to develop into at draft time? Can you tell us? I was told it's unrealistic to expect a 75-80pt player. Many big fans of Slafkovsky in the media also cautioned against expecting such production. Do you disagree with all of them?