Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[BaseballCoach]

I disagree that it is realistic to think Slafkovsky will be that forward. If he becomes a consistent 75-80pt power forward it would not have been a realistic call but rather a lucky one. Let's hope we get lucky.

Obvious attempt to set oneself up as always right. If your judgment were to play out wrong, you can clearly refuse to consider that maybe it is because you missed something that others saw or understood, but just chock it up to bad luck for you, fluke for them.

Seriously.

This is not some guy drafted in the fifth round, passed over 140 times including four times by the team that drafted him.

It's a guy who half of all scouts surveyed had as number 1 overall, and the balance mostly at #2.

CLEARLY it would not be a fluke if the player turned into a 75 point scorer in time.

 

[Jaynki]

If he becomes a consistent 75-80pt power forward it would not have been a realistic call but rather a lucky one. Let's hope we get lucky.

I understand what you mean ReHabs but its actually the opposite.

Just note that by "lucky", in the following exercice, i mean less probable, not most wonderful.

Since 2000, 15/17 forward picked 1st oa have had a 70-85pts season. Two have not. (I add Lafreniere in the category that did not and i add Bedard in those that did, i excluded Slafkovsky from the data.).

The "lucky" call is that he will fall in the 2/17 category and not the 15/17, that would be the norm.

So yeah, if he never have a PPG season, we would be extremely unlucky and it would suck, a lot.

Also, for this macro exercice, we have to ignore all subjectivity because at best its only misleading. For example, Lafreniere had a massive pedigree, Yakupov had one of the strongest start. Hughes started very slow.

I think its still in the statistical, probalistic realm that Slafkovsky is a PPG player at some point in his career.

 

[le_sean]

If he develops as he was projected to at draft time, it’ll be lucky. That’s a new one. Really doubling down on a complete refusal to admit to being wrong.

 

[ReHabs]

The issue many of us have with you is your tone, until the last few weeks many myself included have preached patience and that he’s young and it will come in time and you have spent the better part of the last year plus insinuating he’s a meat head who should never have been drafted. It’s looking like you were wrong and rather then even suggest such a thing your creating a scenario where your saying the two extremes still exist and nit picking on small details in his game that are still likely to improve given his age. Is he going to be a bust, no, is he going to be a generational forward, also no but you putting that argument out there is disenguous when a 70-80 pt modern power forward is closer to generational then a bust and it’s a bad faith argument.

Even before the 2022 Draft it was said that not one of the top prospects should be expected to be a 1st liner. You tell me if a 75-80pt POWER FORWARD is first liner material or not -- I think any 75-80pt power forward is not just a run-of-the-mill first liner but an exceedingly valuable one. So no, based on his prospect profile, the conversations around the 2022 draft, and evidence so far, I don't think it's realistic to expect a 75-80pt power forward from Slafkovsky.

Be that as it may, you're entitled to expect such a player from such a prospect. You're not entitled to demand that I think it's realistic to think the guy who couldn't score 11pts in Liiga can consistently get 80pts in the NHL. We disagree, we can agree to disagree. I love disagreements. Some commentators take shots at me every time Slafkovsky picks up a point (thankfully for my ego this is a very rare occasion) -- to me that's perfectly fine and in good fun.

Obvious attempt to set oneself up as always right. If your judgment were to play out wrong, you can clearly refuse to consider that maybe it is because you missed something that others saw or understood, but just chock it up to bad luck for you, fluke for them.

The evidence (as much as it exists or I've seen) does not point toward a future 75-80pt power forward in the NHL. Please provide the evidence to support your vision.

Seriously.

This is not some guy drafted in the fifth round, passed over 140 times including four times by the team that drafted him.

Sure seems like people treat him that way, celebrating his every poke check...

It's a guy who half of all scouts surveyed had as number 1 overall, and the balance mostly at #2.

From the notoriously questionable 2022 draft cohort, now you want to turn around and say it's perfectly normal to expect big things from Slafkovsky? Fine, be my guest! When will you start to demand production from him? Most other 1OAs and 2OAs produce more than 20pts in their sophomore NHL season. Slafkovsky is dead last and trending to stay there.

CLEARLY it would not be a fluke if the player turned into a 75 point scorer in time.

I don't see you correcting all the commentators who have repeatedly insisted they'd be happy with a 50-60pt forward.

I understand what you mean ReHabs but its actually the opposite.

Just note that by "lucky", in the following exercice, i mean less probable, not most wonderful.

Since 2000, 15/17 forward picked 1st oa have had a 70-85pts season. Two have not. (I add Lafreniere in the category that did not and i add Bedard in those that did, i excluded Slafkovsky from the data.). [ReHabs Comment: Fair]

The "lucky" call is that he will fall in the 2/17 category and not the 15/17, that would be the norm. [ReHabs Comment: Disagree with this assumption. See below.]

So yeah, if he never have a PPG season, we would be extremely unlucky and it would suck, a lot.

Also, for this macro exercice, we have to ignore all subjectivity because at best its only misleading. For example, Lafreniere had a massive pedigree, Yakupov had one of the strongest start. Hughes started very slow.

I think its still in the statistical, probalistic realm that Slafkovsky is a PPG player at some point in his career.

Consistent 75-80pt player =/= hits PPG once in his career. I think we could all agree the latter is more realistic. Expecting a consistent 75-80pt power forward from this player is not very realistic imo but that's just my opinion, we can't possible argue about this, can we?

As for the 2/17 vs 15/17 break down, I've looked at the stats, as you know, as of right now Slaf is dead last in PPG in D+1 and D+2. He's 1/17 right now. If you add 2OAs who were the Top Drafted Forward, he's 1/23. Dead last in PPG. The average Top Drafted Forward of the past 23 drafts had a career pace of 61pts/season after their sophomore season. Slafkovsky has about a third of that right now, on pace for around 21.

If there are only two buckets, he doesn't belong to the one that has McDavid, Matthews, and MacKinnon. Frankly, I don't think it's fair to compare them (but this also means it's not fair or realistic to expect 75-80pts a season from Slafkovsky).

Right now, I think he can turn out to be a worthwhile player playing on any of the top3 lines like a Chris Kuntiz-type but he shouldn't have been the 1OA.

 

[BaseballCoach]

If he develops as he was projected to at draft time, it’ll be lucky. That’s a new one. Really doubling down on a complete refusal to admit to being wrong.

With @ReHabs it's not just his constant broadcast of Slaf's low point totals so far that irks.

To me, the most irksome point is that his position from the beginning is that Slaf is a low-IQ hockey player who can't make any good plays and sucked in Finland. He said this before the start of Slaf's rookie season, so he sees the low point totals as CONFIRMATION of his minority take on the guy and PROOF that he was smarter than all the scouts.

So of COURSE if their projection plays out, the professional scouts were flukey-lucky.

But this position requires one to look straight at the games being played and blindly pretending that Slaf really has no IQ and really can't make NHL plays. Yeah sure.

 

[ReHabs]

If he develops as he was projected to at draft time, it’ll be lucky. That’s a new one. Really doubling down on a complete refusal to admit to being wrong.

What was he projected to develop into at draft time? Can you tell us? I was told it's unrealistic to expect a 75-80pt player. Many big fans of Slafkovsky in the media also cautioned against expecting such production. Do you disagree with all of them?

 

[SOLR]

He plays in low-definition because of a lack of awareness; he doesn't lack the skill to do high-definition things (look at how he plays when he doesn't have to think about being aware, like in a shootout situation).

I think one aspect of his offensive game he looks excellent in, especially for a guy his size, is deeking goalies. We agree. But technically his release sucks. 1- He needs to pull the stick back or adjust it while he transfers his body weight. 2- He can’t tweak his blade position to not hit legs or sticks. 3- Intead of ever going five-hole, he’s constantly missing the net left and right.

I agree that's what we all see, but I think it comes from the process running in his brain about what is around him vs. him missing out on the shot and techniques. There's 1 shot out of 4 where he is suddenly perfectly sound regarding release and technique. It's all the shots where he looks overall distracted, and he's overthinking it; when he does that, his technique sucks. So it's confidence, keeping it mentally simple, and doing what comes naturally vs. changing technical elements. The young Cam Neely / Joe Thornton problem.

 

[le_sean]

What was he projected to develop into at draft time? Can you tell us? I was told it's unrealistic to expect a 75-80pt player. Many big fans of Slafkovsky in the media also cautioned against expecting such production. Do you disagree with all of them?

The only person I disagree with is the one that spends an unhealthy amount of time and effort trying to belittle a promising young player on his supposed favourite team. Your insistence on being proven right surpasses your fandom, which to me means you’re not actually a fan.

 

[ReHabs]

The only person I disagree with is the one that spends an unhealthy amount of time and effort trying to belittle a promising young player on his supposed favourite team. Your insistence on being proven right surpasses your fandom, which to me means you’re not actually a fan.

Meaningless response to an otherwise simple question. Typical. Should we search @le_sean + Kotkaniemi? I've seen you trash him many times and he's not even a Hab any more. Galchenyuk too.

 

[nhlfan9191]

I quoted the one sentence so the reply would go straight to the point. You are of course free to be as concerned as you wish.

Personally, I’m not. I know that in a few years nobody is going to remember how many points he got as a 19 year old. His game’s improving and I know he should have more points than he does. It’s a marathon not a sprint and it will even out in the long run.

Then post what I said and bold the point. Don’t present what I said out of context.

 

[le_sean]

Meaningless response to an otherwise simple question. Typical. Should we search @le_sean + Kotkaniemi? I've seen you trash him many times and he's not even a Hab any more. Galchenyuk too.

The difference is I never wanted them to fail as Habs for the sake of being right. I also never said they were failures 60 games into their careers. I supported the picks from Day 1. Whether I agreed with the selections or not (I did), I was enough of a fan to be happy when they showed progression, unlike some people here.

 

[ReHabs]

The difference is I never wanted them to fail as Habs for the sake of being right. I also never said they were failures 60 games into their careers. I supported the picks from Day 1. Whether I agreed with the selections or not (I did), I was enough of a fan to be happy when they showed progression, unlike some people here.

Okay simmer down. I've repeatedly praised Slafkovsky game (not that it matters) and wanted him to develop in a different way for the greater good of the Habs. Yeah, there were many arguments and points made. The argument is settled, I got it 100% wrong: the geniuses running the Habs kept him in the NHL. Of course I see him playing better than ever (and have said so repeatedly), of course I want to see more evidence of his success. Since I got the development argument wrong, maybe I'll get the projections wrong too. And then maybe the Habs will finally have a former high ranked prospect @le_sean doesn't spend and unhealthy amount of time trashing and belittling.

So what was Slaf projected to develop into at draft time? Can you tell us?

 

[BaseballCoach]

So what was Slaf projected to develop into at draft time? Can you tell us?

A winger on a ppg line. 75 to 80 points ish?

 

[Jaynki]

Consistent 75-80pt player =/= hits PPG once in his career. I think we could all agree the latter is more realistic. Expecting a consistent 75-80pt power forward from this player is not very realistic imo but that's just my opinion, we can't possible argue about this, can we?

As for the 2/17 vs 15/17 break down, I've looked at the stats, as you know, as of right now Slaf is dead last in PPG in D+1 and D+2. He's 1/17 right now. If you add 2OAs who were the Top Drafted Forward, he's 1/23. Dead last in PPG. The average Top Drafted Forward of the past 23 drafts had a career pace of 61pts/season after their sophomore season. Slafkovsky has about a third of that right now, on pace for around 21.

If there are only two buckets, he doesn't belong to the one that has McDavid, Matthews, and MacKinnon. Frankly, I don't think it's fair to compare them (but this also means it's not fair or realistic to expect 75-80pts a season from Slafkovsky).

Right now, I think he can turn out to be a worthwhile player playing on any of the top3 lines like a Chris Kuntiz-type but he shouldn't have been the 1OA.

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Quality answer. Frankly i think i agree with pretty much everything. Effectively, Slafkovksy is not on par with former 1st overall pick, thats our unlucky reality. I think tho to have a clearer picture to see where Slaf ends up in the end, we should wait for the remaining 50 games to be played because he may produce a lot more in them, doubling his pace and then not being alone in his worst-bucket anymore. (speculation but happened with Jack Hughes and Dubois for example.)

I expect more than a Chris Kunitz type, maybe if he produces like him (600 points in 1000games) but with a bigger two way, physical impact. That will still be a disappointment relative to the Mackinnons and McDavids of this world tho but we gotta play the cards we are dealt. As for him not being 1st overall, after all, Cooley, Wright or whoever would not score higher or better than him. Thats our shitty luck to have drafted 1st in such a year. It appears, so far, right now, we have made the right selection.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Then post what I said and bold the point. Don’t present what I said out of context.

You’re saying anyone who isn’t concerned with him being on pace is lying right? I don’t agree.

Sorry but I’m not worried about his production and I told you why… There’s not much more to it than that. What point do you want me to address here?

 

[japhi]

I don't see any point in arguing about where he was projected on draft day, or point totals. What's interesting is how he is developing. Folks saying he just woke up the past month, came out of nowhere haven't been paying attention. He has been getting better progressively, week after week, which is fascinating to me. Been VERY fun to watch a project like this come into his own.

I don't think anyone really knows what his upside is. I'm seeing a guy create multiple scoring chances, a guy that if he can get square to the net, and get his shot off + his already great passing game + his defensive awareness + his emerging physicality... could be a bit of a unicorn.

Maybe a learning for some guys around here, you don't have to be right on these draft day calls, NHL scouts and GM's that do this for a reason, spend 8 hours a day watching puck, get these things wrong all the time. Just watch with your own eyes.

Looking at our last 3 high profile picks, it was clear to me very early that AG and KK were limited, that skating would hold them back. They had very obvious flaws.

I don't see any of those in Slaf, even if the points are slower to come.

 

[417]

You’re saying anyone who isn’t concerned with him being on pace is lying right? I don’t agree.

Sorry but I’m not worried about his production and I told you why… There’s not much more to it than that. What point do you want me to address here?

There are a lot of player’s on this roster whose production pace I'm concerned with.

Slafkovsky is basically the last one on that list..

 

[nhlfan9191]

You’re saying anyone who isn’t concerned with him being on pace is lying right? I don’t agree.

Sorry but I’m not worried about his production and I told you why… There’s not much more to it than that. What point do you want me to address here?

He has 1 point in 8 games while being spoon fed top 6/first line opportunities. At what point is it acceptable to be concerned? People that hide behind the age argument disappear real fast when players get older and the same predictable patterns stay present.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

He has 1 point in 8 games while being spoon fed top 6/first line opportunities. At what point is it acceptable to be concerned? People that hide behind the age argument disappear real fast when players get older and the same predictable patterns stay present.

It’s acceptable for you to be convinced any time you want to be.

I don’t share your concern.

As for him being ‘spoon fed ‘ his place in the lineup, that implies that he doesn’t belong there and is being given it undeservedly. And I strongly disagree with that assertion as well.

 

[japhi]

Also, the comps against previous 1OA's don't take into account the nature of this draft. Seen as weak, but more so very hard to predict. All these players had messed up dev curves due to the pandemic and not one of them is doing much right now in the NHL, Slaf leading the group with 18 points, Going to take a number of years more then a typical draft, for this one to play out.

 

[waitin425]

Sometimes things don't fall in the middle. We don't know. I'd rather stick to "we don't know" than assume certainty the he will become a XX point player. Why? Because he doesn't fit any model of any successful trajectory I've seen.

I just think of his projections on a scale, with a greater degree of uncertainty on the extreme ends of that scale. The scale is adjustable as we go. Could he bust as you claim, sure...about as likely as he hits 100 points. I am trying to find middle ground.

That forward would certainly be the most important forward we would have seen in Habs colours in the current generation. I disagree that it is realistic to think Slafkovsky will be that forward. If he becomes a consistent 75-80pt power forward it would not have been a realistic call but rather a lucky one. Let's hope we get lucky.

Currently today, without sliding that scale along....I am comfortable to predict the 70-85 point bullseye for him. Maybe I'm wrong, but it is the highest degree of certainty for where he projects...based on right now.

In my career as a Habs fan I do not feel particularly lucky.

Interesting choice of words "career as a Habs fan". Of course, I know what you mean, just having fun.

Sure. I don't think we need to discuss it at all. There is no disagreement to be had -- someone can say that Slaf will emulate the career trajectory of Byfield, Thornton, Lecavalier, Rantanen, whatever name you want to pull out. We can only say "sure, why not". I'm not going to disagree any more, nothing I say will deter you and nothing you say will change my mind. In terms of evidence, I see player on pace for less than 30pts in his D+2. You wanna say Slafkovsky is the next Jagr. Okay fine, he is the next Jagr. I hope to see it soon.

As of right now, even at the ~30 point pace you quote, we see improvements. Your "evidence" is based solely on current point production. Most on here, base their evidence on all the other subjective things they are witnessing.

I think those who keep hyping up his every pass and shoulder check are irrational but even then, we'll see. Maybe they see the Matrix Code and they see Slafkovsky doing things so good that it keeps him off the scoresheet. Maybe Slafkovsky has transcended the scoresheet entirely.

Passes, and shoulder checks are part of the game. Even when they don't necessarily lead to points. You suggest all those hyping him are merely doing it based on the odd good pass or shoulder check, when in reality many hyping him are watching a more complete body of work.

 

[417]

He has 1 point in 8 games while being spoon fed top 6/first line opportunities. At what point is it acceptable to be concerned? People that hide behind the age argument disappear real fast when players get older and the same predictable patterns stay present.

You should check out the rest of the team over that same timeframe.

He's not an outlier of bad production.

 

[nhlfan9191]

It’s acceptable for you to be convinced any time you want to be.

I don’t share your concern.

As for him being ‘spoon fed ‘ his place in the lineup, that implies that he doesn’t belong there and is being given it undeservedly. And I strongly disagree with that assertion as well.

I think he had two points when he got promoted up the line up. He also didn’t make the team last year. He was placed there based on draft status. I’m not a fan of players being placed on pedestals. I think that may be the biggest issue I have with him. You can make an argument for him getting top 6 minutes now, but that speaks more to how poor our forwards have been. I’m seeing fans lowering the bar as far as possible every chance they get to try and justify the pick and I don’t think that’s right. I also don’t think it’s right that you get bullied by posters for not being a delusional optimist in this thread. Not everyone has to be happy with the prospect.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Go Slaf Go !He's the singular and only reason to tune in and he's not disappointing ! Keep it up big fella

 

[Rapala]

After 69 career NHL games:

Slaf: 18 pts (6G, 12A)
Byfiedd: 20 pts (7G, 13A)

Two high picks whose development included growing into their big frames.

I'm not sure how this will play out for the rest of the season but Slaf currently has far greater responsibiities than Byfield had at the same time on the developmental curve. Meanwhile his opportunties will be greater in this next segment of that curve so he should surpass him production wise in the next 52 games. I really don't see us moving him off Suzuki's wing.