Player Discussion JT Miller Thread

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Do you know what a statistical outlier is? If you understand anything about statistics at all or took any introduction to stats course in ANY high school or university course, you would understand what that means. NOBODY thought JTM was a 99 point player. He was a 70-80 point player that had a statistical outlier. His current production is actually ON TREND with the previous seasons before his STATISTICAL OUTLIER. I suggest Googling if you need help to understand this concept.

Your point re Pettersson doesn't make sense. Nobody is snapping any fingers to do anything. There is however a realistic pathway to success in 2-3 years if they do it right. Trading JTM for peanuts would not contribute to that pathway. If you honestly think Petey is willing to wait another 4-5 years to be competitive, I have a free cruise to give you.

Saying the contract makes "zero sense" is honestly just outing yourself. I get it though... Canucks media has been shagging on this contract for so long, just an echo chamber of biased comments. Try looking at the contract objectively.... think for yourself and don't let the media influence you.

Complete liability? How so? Do you really think Miller is going to be a 4th line forward scoring 10 points in 3/4 years? He'll likely be overpaid by 34/35 but he can probably still be a productive top six forward that specializes on the PP (see Giroux, Kopitar, Malkin, Kane, Pavelski etc.) Star level forwards tend to age very well... even Jamie Benn is having a bounce back year. The cap will be up in 4/5 years and 8M will be not what it is today as a % of the cap. If JTM can score 50 points in a top six role on the PP at age 34/35, is he a complete liability? This isn't a video game. Players tend to age on a curve... JTM can still provide value on his backend of his contract and not be a "complete liability" as you say. Just saying something doesn't make it accurate. JTM is going to decline on a curve. He might be a "complete liability" in his last 2 years of his deal, but that's 5 years away. Hardly a few years.

Do you know for a fact that Canucks won't be playoff contenders for 3-4 years? Based on what exactly? NJD picked second overall last year and are now competing for the Cup this year. Nobody has a crystal ball in sports. Success of a franchise can change fast - both ways. Saying stuff like this really just shows that you don't understand sports, which is kind of crazy since you've been watching for a while.

Reversal of fortune in the NHL comes swiftly..both up and down.

 

[PG Canuck]

I could see Detroit wanting to take a swing at the wild card. They're in striking range of it and they clearly felt pressure to compete this year given their offseason moves and how advantageous it would have been to delay those moves by another year.

I'd rate them a very dark horse for Miller and pretty far down the list of likely suspects but I wouldn't rule them out completely. Carolina has always made the most sense and been the best fit other than their mgmt philosophy.

Personally I'm rooting for Calgary to come out of nowhere and acquire Miller out of pure desperation. I have absolutely no idea how they'd make it work next year but I'm not sure Treliving cares about that at all at this point.

Vrana

 

[PuckMunchkin]

That’s how you really f*** everyone up- acquire some loser with an unearned contract way bigger than he deserves

Hey!

Miller was coming of a career year when they signed him to this ticket.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

God JT Miller is the most hated player on the Canucks for no god damn reason.

Dude's been our best forward for the last 4 years and just came off a 99 point year where he carried the hell out of this team.

He's been an absolute warrior for us and half the fanbase hates him. No wonder why players don't want to deal with this fanbase/media... extremely toxic.

Oh god....

He has just so much passion am I right?

 

[ChilliBilly]

I think a lot of people are missing a major part of the big picture.

Having cap space is so valuable at this time of year. The Canucks have been f***ed for 5 years because they keep buying crap to be contenders, when the best thing they could have done was stay out of the FA market. (Yes I know, its more complicated than that, trying to keep this under 5 pages).

Trading Miller isn't just about getting a decent return, its also about putting us in a position to use cap space to get prospects and draft picks for cap dumps. Aren't a ton of proposals right now all because we have LTIR cap space?

I would trade Miller in a sec for a package like we got for Horvat. And then trade either / both of OEL and Meyers, and retain 30% of their salary, to any contender that wants them. For a playoff contention team big bodies D men are valuable through the long grind of the playoffs. (This hurt us big time in 2011, how many of our guys were walking wounded by the 7th game against the Bruins?)

Anyhow, Raty may hit. I think we got a steal in Kravtsov. Yes we need a steady D man or two to back up Hughes.

trade Schenn, then resign him this summer to play with Hughes. Maybe 1 -2 of Jurmo, Rathbone, Woo, Juulson, Johansson, Wolanin (needs to be re-signed), krudryatsev, EP2, Truscott etc become 3 - 4 D men in a year or 2. I can dream can't I. Oh and we need to draft at least 2 - 3 D men this year.

 

[Quinntessential]

If he’s traded it will be to make way for Bedard

 

[Coffee]

If he’s traded it will be to make way for Bedard

If we trade Miller and fail to win Bedard (unlikely)

Then would you be willing to snag PLD?

 

[Quinntessential]

If we trade Miller and fail to win Bedard (unlikely)

Then would you be willing to snag PLD?

By PLD, you mean Pierre Luc Dubois?

 

[Coffee]

By PLD, you mean Pierre Luc Dubois?

Yup

 

[Quinntessential]

Yup

Only if he will agree to sign long-term here. Sure, he’s a great player at an age that fits our core.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Only if he will agree to sign long-term here. Sure, he’s a great player at an age that fits our core.

To me he seems like one of those guys who, when facing adversity, tries to run away.

It is now two teams (that I know of) that instead of trying to make it work he is forcing his way out.

 

[gringo]

That’s shortsighted.

A Kotkaniemi buyout comes with a cap hit < $1M per season. You do the deal to get out of the Miller contract that never should have been signed. The buyout cap hit is the cost of being stupid back in September. I would do the trade and wait it out as long as possible until the Canucks need that cap space, and then do the buyout.

So buyout OEL and Kotkaniemi? How many losers need to be bought out? No thanks, just not my thing to bring in losers like OeL and Kotkaniemi onto a team that’s trying to actually build a coherent team.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

 

[y2kcanucks]

Do you know what a statistical outlier is? If you understand anything about statistics at all or took any introduction to stats course in ANY high school or university course, you would understand what that means. NOBODY thought JTM was a 99 point player. He was a 70-80 point player that had a statistical outlier. His current production is actually ON TREND with the previous seasons before his STATISTICAL OUTLIER. I suggest Googling if you need help to understand this concept.

Your point re Pettersson doesn't make sense. Nobody is snapping any fingers to do anything. There is however a realistic pathway to success in 2-3 years if they do it right. Trading JTM for peanuts would not contribute to that pathway. If you honestly think Petey is willing to wait another 4-5 years to be competitive, I have a free cruise to give you.

Saying the contract makes "zero sense" is honestly just outing yourself. I get it though... Canucks media has been shagging on this contract for so long, just an echo chamber of biased comments. Try looking at the contract objectively.... think for yourself and don't let the media influence you.

Complete liability? How so? Do you really think Miller is going to be a 4th line forward scoring 10 points in 3/4 years? He'll likely be overpaid by 34/35 but he can probably still be a productive top six forward that specializes on the PP (see Giroux, Kopitar, Malkin, Kane, Pavelski etc.) Star level forwards tend to age very well... even Jamie Benn is having a bounce back year. The cap will be up in 4/5 years and 8M will be not what it is today as a % of the cap. If JTM can score 50 points in a top six role on the PP at age 34/35, is he a complete liability? This isn't a video game. Players tend to age on a curve... JTM can still provide value on his backend of his contract and not be a "complete liability" as you say. Just saying something doesn't make it accurate. JTM is going to decline on a curve. He might be a "complete liability" in his last 2 years of his deal, but that's 5 years away. Hardly a few years.

Do you know for a fact that Canucks won't be playoff contenders for 3-4 years? Based on what exactly? NJD picked second overall last year and are now competing for the Cup this year. Nobody has a crystal ball in sports. Success of a franchise can change fast - both ways. Saying stuff like this really just shows that you don't understand sports, which is kind of crazy since you've been watching for a while.

One who does not understand the concept of age curves should not assume they are qualified to educate someone else on what a statistical outlier is. Of course I know what an outlier is. I also have the ability to approach this matter with forward-looking thinking. A 30 year old is going to regress before the end of a 7-year term.

My point about Pettersson makes perfect sense. Though I suppose to someone who thinks keeping Miller around is somehow the key to keeping Pettersson around it might not. Your whole point seems to be that the Canucks jeopardize losing Pettersson if they signal a rebuild by trading away JT Miller because Pettersson wants to win now. Yet you ignore the fact that even with Miller, the Canucks aren’t simply going to start winning now. It’s that simple. Keeping Miller around accomplishes nothing. Trading Miller at least gets a future rotten contract off the books at a time when you likely don’t have to expend assets to do so, thus putting the Canucks in a better position to win in the nearer future.

I do think Miller’s contract will be a rotten liability in 4 years, yes. And the same garbage you’re spewing about how it won’t be that bad is the same garbage I read people say about Tyler Myers and OEL’s contracts. It’s unsophisticated drivel that is divorced from reality. Bad contracts are bad contracts and hinder any teams ability to ice a competitive team. Avoiding bad contracts at all cost should be one of the top priorities of any NHL front office.

So buyout OEL and Kotkaniemi? How many losers need to be bought out? No thanks, just not my thing to bring in losers like OeL and Kotkaniemi onto a team that’s trying to actually build a coherent team.

Where did you see buyout OEL? I’ve always maintained that buying out OEL makes zero sense given the longterm cap implications. Unfortunately, due to the complete lunacy of the owner, the damage for keeping Jim Benning around as long as the Canucks did is done. Now the Canucks have a 4 year window to conduct a proper rebuild while they wait out the OEL contract. If, at that point, the team is competitive again then you can look to buyout Kotkaniemi (if he hasn’t developed and isn’t worth his contract) and only have a cap hit that is under $1M.

 

[rypper]

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

I’m very suspicious about his injury

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

I’m very suspicious about his injury

Can't get in trouble from the league for sitting someone out if they are "injured"

That or Miller is saying he's injured knowing he might get traded and it could nix a deal.

I'd say 50/50.

 

[Spectrefire]

Zero chance Miller would want to sabatoge a deal to a contender down South.

Dude clearly doesn't even want to be here.

 

[Nucker101]

Even if this isn't trade related, week-to-week is nice for the tank

 

[MS]

Zero chance Miller would want to sabatoge a deal to a contender down South.

Dude clearly doesn't even want to be here.

It actually seems like he really does want to be here.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Even if this isn't trade related, week-to-week is nice for the tank

Good for the tank... bad for the "rebuild".

 

[ephmrl]

It actually seems like he really does want to be here.

I think he loves the opportunity to play in all situations, 20+ minutes a night that he gets here. He clearly loves being the "go-to" guy, and realizes he might not have that opportunity on other teams in the league, especially the contending teams that would be trading for him. He's been given a role in Vancouver that he's never had before and likely doesn't want to go to another team and be a secondary piece on the roster.

 

[CanucksSayEh]

If he’s traded it will be to make way for Bedard

Make way? If we get Bedard, slap him on JT's wing as an 18yo. Trade Lekkermaki, the Isles 1st and our entire 24 draft for a new D + 3rd line. All in before Hughes deal is up.

 

[gringo]

One who does not understand the concept of age curves should not assume they are qualified to educate someone else on what a statistical outlier is. Of course I know what an outlier is. I also have the ability to approach this matter with forward-looking thinking. A 30 year old is going to regress before the end of a 7-year term.

My point about Pettersson makes perfect sense. Though I suppose to someone who thinks keeping Miller around is somehow the key to keeping Pettersson around it might not. Your whole point seems to be that the Canucks jeopardize losing Pettersson if they signal a rebuild by trading away JT Miller because Pettersson wants to win now. Yet you ignore the fact that even with Miller, the Canucks aren’t simply going to start winning now. It’s that simple. Keeping Miller around accomplishes nothing. Trading Miller at least gets a future rotten contract off the books at a time when you likely don’t have to expend assets to do so, thus putting the Canucks in a better position to win in the nearer future.

I do think Miller’s contract will be a rotten liability in 4 years, yes. And the same garbage you’re spewing about how it won’t be that bad is the same garbage I read people say about Tyler Myers and OEL’s contracts. It’s unsophisticated drivel that is divorced from reality. Bad contracts are bad contracts and hinder any teams ability to ice a competitive team. Avoiding bad contracts at all cost should be one of the top priorities of any NHL front office.



Where did you see buyout OEL? I’ve always maintained that buying out OEL makes zero sense given the longterm cap implications. Unfortunately, due to the complete lunacy of the owner, the damage for keeping Jim Benning around as long as the Canucks did is done. Now the Canucks have a 4 year window to conduct a proper rebuild while they wait out the OEL contract. If, at that point, the team is competitive again then you can look to buyout Kotkaniemi (if he hasn’t developed and isn’t worth his contract) and only have a cap hit that is under $1M.

You’ve to buyout OEL unless there is a realistic chance he stays in LTIR. You simply can’t have a guy like that on your nhl team. Period.

 

[y2kcanucks]

You’ve to buyout OEL unless there is a realistic chance he stays in LTIR. You simply can’t have a guy like that on your nhl team. Period.

I completely disagree. Buying out OEL makes zero sense. The Canucks are not in a competitive window, so why would you take cap space away in future years when they could be in a competitive window just to get him off the team now?