Prospect Info: Joshua Roy Part 2

[dcyhabs]

Galchenyuk yes, he was 2PPG in Junior in his D+1.

Kotkaniemi no, he was overhyped (and I fell for it, seeing as I liked Bobby Smith a lot). Looking back, even in the training camp which had him make the squad, he did not produce that much offence.

KK had a pretty good rookie season, he just didn't grow from there. The habs terrible coaching and developing really didn't help.

It's not like he was in the league to learn and grow, he was there to be more effective than whoever else they could get and to make it look like the habs didn't make a pretty significant and ill advised reach. They still would have been worse off going consensus with Zadina. Kotkaniemi wasn't playing a lot of minutes and he wasn't given a chance to learn. He could play sheltered minutes, but the next year he couldn't cope with not being sheltered.

Kotkaniemi wasn't terrible, but he shouldn't have been 3OA and he shouldn't have been in the NHL until he was 21 or 22. He was described everywhere as a long term project, not as a guy who should be in the NHL at 18 (46th most points in an 18 year old season, even so).

 

[Natey]

You’re underrating experience. Letting players dominate a lower league doesn’t have a bad track record. Putting players in a higher league at a young age often reduces upside as they play to survive instead of learning to play well. A year in the AHL didn’t hurt Subban, Pacioretty needed to go back, skipping from junior is a big risk. Let them grow.

It's all relative to the player though. I'm not saying Roy should play here .. but if he earns the 9 games, he earns it. And then whatever happens happens. If he doesn't earn it by exceeding expectations, he goes back to junior.

Some players do better rushed, some players do better with a medium build, some players do better with the slow burn.

We didn't really have the option for slow burn in prior years though. Our development setup and our AHL coaching was a joke. So it was either rush or be sent back to juniors forever. Hopefully with this new found care for development, we see options available and only "rush" the players who earn it and we can't possibly send back.

 

[Matthew McConaughay]

Why have so few guys had good seasons young, especially recently? Crosby did great, but KK has the 46th most points as an 18 year old and he clearly shouldn't have gone near the NHL until he was 21 or 22. Hitting the NHL young was a lot more common the further back you go, less structure, less pressure, less to learn. 22 players with 0.75 ppg at 18 with only a few recent guys, including Laine who probably shouldn't have been there, same for Skinner.

You have 56 players over 0.75 ppg at 19, 162 at 0.5 or over. The 56 is 1-2 per year. 162 is 3-4 per year. This draft year is not stellar, so having none wouldn't be a stretch, and, who knows, maybe someone like Aho will emerge.

For Wright, or whoever the habs draft 1OA there is an argument but considering it's not a strong draft, there isn't a generational player, and that lots of guys lost development time to COVID, the argument to have the guy in the NHL immediately isn't great. Best case the guy does OK, but not so well that he worsens the draft pick and prepares for a breakout season, worst case he gets hurt or limits his game. Either way it burns a contract year. Sure, try a few games but send him back at the first sign of struggle or the first game he doesn't play 15 minutes.

I'm not convinced that there is ever any benefit to rushing players. Sure, there may be one or two guys who thrived young, Aho was fine, but we have examples of players who started young and tanked with the habs. What player ended up worse because he spent an extra year or two in the minors? Can we point to anybody who stayed in the minors too long and wasted potential?

Sillinger hasn't had a career yet, so we can't know how if it will help or hurt him.

Wright was considered a potential generational player until Covid, he missed a year, i think he can still become one, i won't rule him out because his last season wasn't up to expectation, he was on par or better than McDavid production wise until Covid, not saying he will be a McDavid, he won't be as spectacular, but a player doesn't have to be spectacular to accumulate goals and assists, he can become a highly productive player, with the skills he's got, as for Roy, he's not the fastest, but with the other skills he's got, it will make up for it.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Yeah, my take too. I don't know about Roy specifically, but this should be a case by case basis. Cole Sillinger made the Blue Jackets this year and did fine for example.

It's been a whole shtick of this board since forever. Most think taking time to develop in lower leagues automatically amounts to better developelment. It's like a not so secret formula. I think this is often the case yes, but still should be a case by case basis. The whole debate is a bit caricatural for me, and I know some would die on this hill before changing their minds.

It’s basically just an excuse for when posters prospect crush busts. He was rushed! He was mishandled!

Sometimes that can happen but it is the exception not the rule. Usually it’s just guys don’t have it. Galchenyuk and Kotkaniemi are prime examples for us.

 

[Ezpz]

Reway looked great at one point in time. His career took a harsh turn and he was never the same player, even though there were glimpses.

That's true but Reway never had a chance of making the team that year, they were simply evaluating what they perceived his future value to be. The reason he was cut later wasn't because he was a better fit for the NHL at the time than the AHL vets, but that the team already knew what the AHL vets value was and what order they would be called up.

I think Roy will get training camp and maybe a couple games so he knows what to work on in the then be sent down to destroy the Q even more. I think it would be a mistake to get him in at 19 years old when he's physically immature and burn a year off his RFA years on top of risking injury like we did with Latendresse.

 

[WeThreeKings]

It’s basically just an excuse for when posters prospect crush busts. He was rushed! He was mishandled!

Sometimes that can happen but it is the exception not the rule. Usually it’s just guys don’t have it. Galchenyuk and Kotkaniemi are prime examples for us.

It's gonna be really weird when this problem goes away on a large scale with competent people in place.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

It's gonna be really weird when this problem goes away on a large scale with competent people in place.

Can’t wait until this FO is called incompetent like every previous FO was

 

[themilosh]

He was bigger. Back then they didn't put value in skating on the first round , always saying the guy ( Chouinard, Terry Ryan, Jason Ward etc ) will improve. Not so much. Gagne was faster and grittier. Yeah, went for the wrong one because of a flawed drafting philosophy.

Perfect example of how Scouts can ruin your team. An obvious choice was Gagne with massive speed and by no means small at 6'1".
One only had to watch their playoffs that year to get the real interpretation of their value.

 

[Vachon23]

It's gonna be really weird when this problem goes away on a large scale with competent people in place.

If they keep Roy in NHL, I will start to honestly question there competency for developing player.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Can’t wait until this FO is called incompetent like every previous FO was

Have you checked the top 10 players drafted by Habs until Bergevin in their career points? DLR and Andrighetto are on the list. Galchenyuk is like 1.

Bergevin was clearly incompetent in drafting and development. Hughes and Gorton can do the bare minimum which they are doing and get infinitely more results.

They had no staff. No plan. No subject matter experts. Rushed players. Had terrible coaches at all levels.

They were routinely unable to get floors out of prospects.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Have you checked the top 10 players drafted by Habs until Bergevin in their career points? DLR and Andrighetto are on the list. Galchenyuk is like 1.

Bergevin was clearly incompetent in drafting and development. Hughes and Gorton can do the bare minimum which they are doing and get infinitely more results.

They had no staff. No plan. No subject matter experts. Rushed players. Had terrible coaches at all levels.

They were routinely unable to get floors out of prospects.

Bergevins fatal flaw was his loyalty to Timmins. Timmins was brutal.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Bergevins fatal flaw was his loyalty to Timmins. Timmins was brutal.

His fatal flaw was employing brain dead coaches who didn't believe in development, having two people run the development department for the entire team and putting the onus on teenagers to figure out what to develop, how to develop it and who to help them develop it.

 

[Justin11]

Why don’t we wait and see how he performs at camp. If he dominates, then fine, keep him up with the club, if he’s just average, then send him down.

At the moment, I personally think that Roy will benefit to play another season in the Q.

 

[JoelWarlord]

It’s basically just an excuse for when posters prospect crush busts. He was rushed! He was mishandled!

Genuinely have no idea how you could watch what happened with Caufield and Suzuki this year after they fired Ducharme and still hold this opinion.

 

[BLONG7]

Bergevins fatal flaw was his loyalty to Timmins. Timmins was brutal.

Bergevin had several, fatal flaws.............on full display since the summer of 17
All moot now...........as soon as we can escape from cap hell, that he created we can lay this clown to rest.
Can't wait until the Rinse and Repeat era is done..........

 

[Draft]

There's a level of survivorship bias that exists in this "you can never stay in the minors too long" discussion. We don't talk about the guys that didn't make it... because we assume they never would have made it anyway. That's just not true, it's just not an easily observable phenomenon. We have players that have been immensely successful starting at 18 or D+1/D+2/D+5, we have players that have been successful before ever dominating their leagues, we have players that have clearly stagnated in junior, etc.

If Roy can be competitive, gets minutes, and is allowed to make mistakes, I've got absolutely no problem with him learning to play an NHL game in the NHL. He's got nothing to learn offensively in the Q and I don't think he's going to learn to play elite defence there either. Ideally, I'd love to loan Wright and Roy to the same SHL/NLA squad, but I don't think that's about to happen anytime soon. If he wins a spot, great. If he doesn't, no harm done.

 

[Vachon23]

There's a level of survivorship bias that exists in this "you can never stay in the minors too long" discussion. We don't talk about the guys that didn't make it... because we assume they never would have made it anyway. That's just not true, it's just not an easily observable phenomenon. We have players that have been immensely successful starting at 18 or D+1/D+2/D+5, we have players that have been successful before ever dominating their leagues, we have players that have clearly stagnated in junior, etc.

If Roy can be competitive, gets minutes, and is allowed to make mistakes, I've got absolutely no problem with him learning to play an NHL game in the NHL. He's got nothing to learn offensively in the Q and I don't think he's going to learn to play elite defence there either. Ideally, I'd love to loan Wright and Roy to the same SHL/NLA squad, but I don't think that's about to happen anytime soon. If he wins a spot, great. If he doesn't, no harm done.

Roy have still many holes in his games that he need to work until being an NHL ready

 

[Draft]

Roy have still many holes in his games that he need to work until being an NHL ready

NHL ready is pretty subjective. If the goal is elite offensive talent, the next step is NHL competition. Defensively he needs a lot of work, but it's definitely coachable and something we can be patient with on a non-competitive team.

 

[Vachon23]

NHL ready is pretty subjective. If the goal is elite offensive talent, the next step is NHL competition. Defensively he needs a lot of work, but it's definitely coachable and something we can be patient with on a non-competitive team.

He needs work on his offensive games too though. Playing an other season in the Q (and probably in the AHL) will only help arriving with confidence in the NHL

 

[jfm133]

Galchenyuk was 7 months older. For a teenager it's a huge difference.

Galchenyuk yes, he was 2PPG in Junior in his D+1.

Kotkaniemi no, he was overhyped (and I fell for it, seeing as I liked Bobby Smith a lot). Looking back, even in the training camp which had him make the squad, he did not produce that much offence.

 

[jfm133]

This is a pure sophism.

Why has no 1OA since the lockout EVER been sent back to the CHL?

If this happens with Wright, then he is not worthy of being 1OA.

 

[Justin11]

Roy have still many holes in his games that he need to work until being an NHL ready

Not that I disagree with this. I also beleive he has holes in his game.

But what if he can improve at the NHL level under MSL. There won’t be any pressure to win next season.

Let’s first see if he can keep up at the NHL level at camp and then take it from there.

Btw, I’m not opposed of him returning to the Q for one more season.

 

[jfm133]

Well said. This is a big problem here in order to have serious discussions.

Can’t wait until this FO is called incompetent like every previous FO was

 

[Toene]

Galchenyuk and Kotkaniemi both had more talent when drafted than Roy does now. Stop. Rushing. Prospects.

Nah. Roy being low ranked was a question of attitude, shape and mindset. Also the underrating of the Q.

 

[Vachon23]

Not that I disagree with this. I also beleive he has holes in his game.

But what if he can improve at the NHL level under MSL. There won’t be any pressure to win next season.

Let’s first see if he can keep up at the NHL level at camp and then take it from there.

Btw, I’m not opposed of him returning to the Q for one more season.

Personally, I really don't want him in the NHL next year. Let him be the play driver in Sherbrooke next year and be an important player with Team Canada and let him arrived in the NHL with full confidence and ready to be a good top 6 player.