I will happily eat crow if that happen.
Your stance is so rigid and based strictly on D+ calculations, regardless of the player's evolution and progress on his way up to the NHL.
You must enjoy crow as an appetizer, as a main course and as a desert!
Hitting a hime run with Roy would be him living up to his selection as a 1st OA in the Q's draft, after recovering from what made him appear to be a bust early on, before he took things into his own hands and started putting in the effort, rather than coasting strictly on talent.
Roy put to use his hockey IQ and changed what was initially a purely N/S offensive game into a well-rounded, creative, all around offensive game.
He then also added strong puck retrieve and possession skills to his arsenal and, finally, had his hockey IQ contribute to a solid D-game once he focused on that part of his play.
Connor Bedard even praised Roy for the quality of his play in the WJCs.
What Roy has essentially done is learn to play a well-rounded game in order to earn the ice time that can help him produce thanks to a creative offensive game that has evolved into something dangerous during his development.
Once at the NHL level, Roy may not be a play driver, but his game has evolved to the level where he can play with the better players as a solid complement on a line, playing solid transition defence, retrieving pucks, creating offensive chances, setting up line mates and even completing scoring opportunities.
It would be a home run to see Roy emerge as a solid top-6 player after getting nabbed in the 5th round of his draft year, but a solid double if he becomes a two-way, third line player that can score 20 goals and help shut down opponents in the process, capable of covering in the top-6 in case short term injuries..
If Hughes is capable of building a lineup where Roy is forced into a third pairing role, the Habs will only be stronger for it.
Still, for now, until proven otherwise with him playing in the NHL, Roy has remaining upside as a regular top-6 player there.
Hughes would need to add two top-6 wingers before Roy gets relegated to such a third line role on the prospects' depth chart and on a competitive NHL roster.
NHL Top-9:
Caufield - Dach - Slafkovsky
XXX - Suzuki - XXX
Newhook - Beck - Roy
With such a top-9, I can see Caufield in an ideal position with size in the middle and on the other wing, both of his line mates being able playmakers. However, as with Suzuki, both would need to shoot more than they naturally do to keep opposing Ds guessing and create more space for Caufield than he already does by weaving in and out of open ice.
Hughes will also need to acquire a top end scorer who can also play defensively for Suzuki's line and a complementary, two-way winger to complete that line, however he achieves this; draft, trade, UFA market.
Acquiring wingers is always easier than Cs and 1st pairing Ds.
The third line, with Montreal hitting a solid double, both via the Newhook acquisition -- with this role better suited for him -- and Roy lining up on the RW, is an ideal complementary line. Beck's a F/O beast that aligns speed, defensive acumen and offensive upside as a creative C. Newhook aligns speed and two-way skills, able to play a solid D game and owning a genuine NHL wrist shot. Roy, although slower than the other two players, he can be complementary piece on that line as a trailer who puts his hockey IQ to user as one who lends support on the forecheck. Roy can play both sides the ice and win one on one battles for the puck that can help keep pressure in the O-zone.
I believe that we have a top-9 C-line in the making with Dach - Suzuki - Beck and can find a 4th line C better than Evans either within the system, or by acquiring a veteran presence at a relatively cheap price on the UFA front.
We're still 5 years away from having a complete rebuild/lineup and being anywhere near in player development to mount charge for a long playoff run.
Plenty of time to acquire, develop and complete our line up, given that timeline.
On D, while I certainly don't believe that all prospects reach their projected ceilings, I think we have too many prospects or young NHLers with high ceilings on the backend not to end up with a solid (if not impressive) top-4 in 5 years from amongst Guhle, Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux, Barron, Engstrom, Xhekaj, Struble and Konyushlin.
A veteran like Matheson would better serve as trade ammo (along with prospectsor draft picks) to acquire a top-6 winger. As a 29 year old, now, he would already be a 33-year old when we become early contenders. Plus, along the way he'd likely block Guhle and Hutson's development at the NHL level.
That's it in a nutshell, I think, without falling into this D+ trap where everything is a cookie cutter analysis.
