Player Discussion Josh Norris C 6’1” - Part 2

[aragorn]

So, if my math is right, Josh Norris has scored at a better G/GP than every player SINCE his draft year in 2017, except for Jason Robertson.

That includes Elias Pettersson, Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, Nico Hischier, etc.

Brady is 5th.

Hummm ... the guy that lacks skill is fifth?

 

[GCK]

So, if my math is right, Josh Norris has scored at a better G/GP than every player SINCE his draft year in 2017, except for Jason Robertson.

That includes Elias Pettersson, Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, Nico Hischier, etc.

Brady is 5th.

You put the 2017 and 2018 drafts together and skipped some players.

 

[dumbdick]

You put the 2017 and 2018 drafts together and skipped some players.

Who did I miss?
I went by Goals/GP and included every player drafted since 2017. I think I filtered on 25+ GP too since there were a few outliers with hot starts on a few games.

 

[GCK]

Who did I miss?
I went by Goals/GP and included every player drafted since 2017. I think I filtered on 25+ GP too since there were a few outliers with hot starts on a few games.

I see. I thought you were just using 2017, my bad. Interesting stats.

 

[Xspyrit]

Here's the update

Josh Norris has 36 goals in his last 68 games played... which is 0.53 G/GP

So in the last 365 days, since March 15th 2021, he is the 11th best (tied) goal scorer in the league

1- Auston Matthews 0.80 GPG
2- Leon Draisaitl 0.64 GPG
3- Alex Ovechkin 0.63 GPG
4- Aleksander Barkov 0.59 GPG
4- Alex DeBrincat 0.59 GPG
6- Filip Forsberg 0.58 GPG
7- Kyle Connor 0.57 GPG
7- Connor McDavid 0.57 GPG
9- Kirill Kaprizov 0.55 GPG
10- Mikko Rantanen 0.54 GPG
11- Gabriel Landeskog 0.53 GPG
11- Jason Robertson 0.53 GPG
11- Chris Kreider 0.53 GPG
11- Josh Norris 0.53 GPG
11- Brad Marchand 0.53 GPG
16- Matt Duchene 0.52 GPG
17- Max Pacioretty 0.50 GPG
18- Mika Zibanejad 0.49 GPG
18- Elias Lindholm 0.49 GPG
18- Jake Guentzel 0.49 GPG
18- Bryan Rust 0.49 GPG

Anthony Duclair is 33rd... too bad we can't add talent like that!

 

[bicboi64]

Josh Norris is going to be a perennial 30-35 goal scorer, something we haven't had since Heatley. We better get him signed for 8 years and get the most of him because we haven't had a goal scoring centre (player) in ages. Having said that, Brady's deal set the precedent, and I anticipate Norris getting paid $8 million per season with the latter part of the deal having more actual cash. I'm fine with an $8 million dollar deal as long as its for 8 years, but we have a window to compete until Batherson is up for a new deal. Not to mention, we're not re-signing guys like Paul and will be relying on Sanderson, JBD, Thomson, Kleven, Grieg, and Sokolov contributing while on their ELC & bridge deals.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Josh Norris is going to be a perennial 30-35 goal scorer, something we haven't had since Heatley. We better get him signed for 8 years and get the most of him because we haven't had a goal scoring centre (player) in ages. Having said that, Brady's deal set the precedent, and I anticipate Norris getting paid $8 million per season with the latter part of the deal having more actual cash. I'm fine with an $8 million dollar deal as long as its for 8 years, but we have a window to compete until Batherson is up for a new deal. Not to mention, we're not re-signing guys like Paul and will be relying on Sanderson, JBD, Thomson, Kleven, Grieg, and Sokolov contributing while on their ELC & bridge deals.

He's probably going to be closer to a 40-50 goal scorer given his career pace. That's going to make things very complicated for his contract.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Watching William Karlsson makes me a little nervous about Norris. William is still a great hockey player but his numbers have fallen hard when he started getting less offensive deployment.

Norris is very similar to Karlsson imo. Very solid all around but no real dynamic skill aside from his shot. Makes me a little nervous for the contract.

 

[HSF]

Watching William Karlsson makes me a little nervous about Norris. William is still a great hockey player but his numbers have fallen hard when he started getting less offensive deployment.

Norris is very similar to Karlsson imo. Very solid all around but no real dynamic skill aside from his shot. Makes me a little nervous for the contract.

if it is in the 7mill range then that is good for long term.... Any higher and I would bridge him and see what we have. If Stuztle is going to be as good as we think then Norris will be a 2C on this team and then we have Pinto too

 

[HSF]

He's probably going to be closer to a 40-50 goal scorer given his career pace. That's going to make things very complicated for his contract.

he probably won't reach 50 (incredibly hard to do) I see him close to a Debrincat type of player

 

[Sting]

I don't see enough playmaking ability in his game to reward him with an 8m+ long term contract. He's definitely not your traditional play driving #1C, so if we spend on him expecting that we're going to be disappointed.

I wish they'd try him on the right side.

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Norris
Formenton - Pinto - Batherson

Something along those lines

 

[Answer]

Move him to the wing and don't over-pay him. He is scoring a lot, but is lacking other skills that are essential to be a #1 center

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Moving him to the right wing makes so much sense in the right circumstances.
If we're lucky enough to draft a guy like Cooley or if Pinto becomes what I think he can develop into - we'd be all set in the F positions
Tkachuk-Cooley/Pinto-Norris 1a
Anyone-Stutzle-Batherson 1b

 

[bicboi64]

Right now he has a 21.6% shooting percentage. I don't know if that's sustainable. If it is, we're lucky, but if he regresses, we'll be on the hook for a lot of cash. Norris's deal is going to be very tricky considering all the factors at play (contract year, same agent as Brady, Suzuki's deal, etc...)

 

[Loach]

Right now he has a 21.6% shooting percentage. I don't know if that's sustainable. If it is, we're lucky, but if he regresses, we'll be on the hook for a lot of cash. Norris's deal is going to be very tricky considering all the factors at play (contract year, same agent as Brady, Suzuki's deal, etc...)

Over pay on a bridge deal/show me contract under the terms that his next contract would be a little less because of the higher $s of the bridge? Is that allowed?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Nice one handed football catch yesterday.

 

[BankStreetParade]

he probably won't reach 50 (incredibly hard to do) I see him close to a Debrincat type of player

He's on pace for 46 goals, playing on one of the lowest scoring teams in the league this year. And he's still 22, turning 23 in 6 weeks, meaning he has his best production years ahead of him. Also, I'm not sure how what you think Debrincat is but he's been pacing for around 50 the last 2 years and already has a 40+ goal campaign to his name. He's exactly what I'm describing Norris as so I don't understand how we disagree on this assessment.

 

[Korpse]

Watching William Karlsson makes me a little nervous about Norris. William is still a great hockey player but his numbers have fallen hard when he started getting less offensive deployment.

Norris is very similar to Karlsson imo. Very solid all around but no real dynamic skill aside from his shot. Makes me a little nervous for the contract.

William Karlsson, was never much of a PP producer though. His 31 EV goals were 3rd in the NHL in 2017/2018, behind only McDavid and Ovechkin. He had just 37 shots on the PP. With Norris his production is nicely balanced between EV and PP. He's a trigger man on the PP and has 43 shots on the PP in 43 games. Perhaps his goal total is a little bit inflated but I don't think you really have to worry about a significant drop in production given the role he has.

 

[Loach]

William Karlsson, was never much of a PP producer though. His 31 EV goals were 3rd in the NHL in 2017/2018, behind only McDavid and Ovechkin. He had just 37 shots on the PP. With Norris his production is nicely balanced between EV and PP. He's a trigger man on the PP and has 43 shots on the PP in 43 games. Perhaps his goal total is a little bit inflated but I don't think you really have to worry about a significant drop in production given the role he has.

Norris is shooting 20% or something insane. Not sustainable.

 

[Korpse]

Norris is shooting 20% or something insane. Not sustainable.

I acknowledged that his goal total could be inflated. Though I don't think he will be a consistent 10% shooter anytime soon . He is coming off a 17.7 sh% season last year after all. 20% is high but far from insane and I don't expect it to be around that very often, especially given the jump in his shot rate this season. I just don't think William Karlsson is an applicable comparison.

 

[Loach]

I acknowledged that his goal total could be inflated. Though I don't think he will be a consistent 10% shooter anytime soon . He is coming off a 17.7 sh% season last year after all. 20% is high but far from insane and I don't expect it to be around that very often, especially given the jump in his shot rate this season. I just don't think William Karlsson is an applicable comparison.

20% is insane.

 

[Korpse]

20% is insane.

Not for a player taking 40% of their shots on the PP. Again, it's on the high end but there's some context to consider. I think it's reasonable to expect Norris to hover between that 15-20% range during his prime if he maintains his role as a triggerman on the PP.

 

[Loach]

Not for a player taking 40% of their shots on the PP. Again, it's on the high end but there's some context to consider. I think it's reasonable to expect Norris to hover between that 15-20% range during his prime if he maintains his role as a triggerman on the PP.

Cause teams don't see that? He is the first option on the pp with Batherson in. Chabot can't get a puck on net to save his life. Brady screens and bangs and Timmy passes.

 

[Korpse]

Cause teams don't see that? He is the first option on the pp with Batherson in. Chabot can't get a puck on net to save his life. Brady screens and bangs and Timmy passes.

I mean sure, they see it.

 

[Loach]

I mean sure, they see it.

That means its not sustainable