Player Discussion Josh Norris C 6’1” - Part 2

[Masked]

I can't be the only one terrified that Norris asks for Brady money based on a season where he's shooting over 20% right? Assuming he is truly one of the best finishers in the league, his stats adjusted for a more realistic S% of 15% put him on pace for ~33G, ~20A for around 53pts.

Realistic?

This season - 20%. Last season - 18%. Two seasons ago (AHL) - 19%. But something he's done three seasons in a row isn't realistic?

If you'd watch the games, you'd understand why his shooting percentage is high.

Assen na yo!

 

[SquidNasty]

Realistic?

This season - 20%. Last season - 18%. Two seasons ago (AHL) - 19%. But something he's done three seasons in a row isn't realistic?

If you'd watch the games, you'd understand why his shooting percentage is high.

Assen na yo!

Have watched every game from this season + last season and I'm not convinced it's sustainable based on what I've seen. The only guys I could find who maintain near 20% are Debrincat, Draisaitl and prime Stamkos. Most of the best scorers in the league shoot around 15-16%. Ex. Matthews, Ovi, Pasta, Rantanen, Connor, Guentzel, Kucherov. I could be completely wrong and it is very encouraging that he's pulled this off for 3 seasons in a row, I'm just scared that if he demands something like 8.3-8.5 it will seriously hurt when we're contending.

Skinner got 9M for his 40 goal season and Suzuki got just under 8M for arguably a less impressive season to what Norris is currently having. Looking at the way Marner's insane deal has made things very difficult for the Leafs recently has me scared of something similar happening.

Trying to Assen Na Yo! and it's definitely a good problem to have!

 

[Masked]

Have watched every game from this season + last season and I'm not convinced it's sustainable based on what I've seen. The only guys I could find who maintain near 20% are Debrincat, Draisaitl and prime Stamkos. Most of the best scorers in the league shoot around 15-16%. Ex. Matthews, Ovi, Pasta, Rantanen, Connor, Guentzel, Kucherov. I could be completely wrong and it is very encouraging that he's pulled this off for 3 seasons in a row, I'm just scared that if he demands something like 8.3-8.5 it will seriously hurt when we're contending.

He's played less than half the current season so far. If his shooting % is unsustainable, it should drop this season. But it is also possible that he scores more goals because he gets more opportunities to shoot if the team is better.

When it comes to contract negotiations, he has less bargaining power than Brady with Tim and Pinto emerging at center. Suzuki had way more bargaining power with the Habs coming off a Cup run while Danault and Kotkaniemi ditched the team..

Assen na yo.

 

[saskriders]

If Drake is back I want to see him on Norris' wing. Norris needs someone to drive the line more than Timmy and Timmy works well with Formenton.

 

[SensFactor]

Norris didn't look good tonight...turnovers, lost checks and bad D

 

[GCK]

Norris didn't look good tonight...turnovers, lost checks and bad D

A few less than stellar games in a row now. He and Brady will pick it up.

 

[Boud]

A few less than stellar games in a row now. He and Brady will pick it up.

It'll be tough. The reality of it is they can't create offense without Batherson and they're not particularly good defensively either.

"They’ll need to figure out how to replace the offensive catalyst who helps drive their top line. Batherson has provided a primary assist on 10 of Norris’ team-leading 18 goals.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Batherson-Norris-Tkachuk line has outscored the opposition 21-13 when it’s on the ice at five-on-five this season. But when Norris and Tkachuk are playing without Batherson, they’ve been outscored 9-3."

The eye test confirmed that all year pretty much.

 

[Masked]

A few less than stellar games in a row now. He and Brady will pick it up.

Back to back games that were the third game in four nights. When they play the big minutes they do with the style they do, it's not surprising.

Assen na yo.

 

[Big Muddy]

It'll be tough. The reality of it is they can't create offense without Batherson and they're not particularly good defensively either.

"They’ll need to figure out how to replace the offensive catalyst who helps drive their top line. Batherson has provided a primary assist on 10 of Norris’ team-leading 18 goals.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Batherson-Norris-Tkachuk line has outscored the opposition 21-13 when it’s on the ice at five-on-five this season. But when Norris and Tkachuk are playing without Batherson, they’ve been outscored 9-3."

The eye test confirmed that all year pretty much.

2nd & 3rd paragraphs - Interesting/useful info. Thanks for sharing.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

It'll be tough. The reality of it is they can't create offense without Batherson and they're not particularly good defensively either.

"They’ll need to figure out how to replace the offensive catalyst who helps drive their top line. Batherson has provided a primary assist on 10 of Norris’ team-leading 18 goals.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Batherson-Norris-Tkachuk line has outscored the opposition 21-13 when it’s on the ice at five-on-five this season. But when Norris and Tkachuk are playing without Batherson, they’ve been outscored 9-3."

The eye test confirmed that all year pretty much.

Indeed, good post. Norris is awesome, but he's only that much notable when he's 3rd best player on his line. Let's see what he's capable of without one of the most productive players in the league in Batherson. Like someone said, good test before inking new deal.

These injuries this year have been terrible. But silver-lining could be we save 500k-1 mil annually on Norris extension.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

It'll be tough. The reality of it is they can't create offense without Batherson and they're not particularly good defensively either.

"They’ll need to figure out how to replace the offensive catalyst who helps drive their top line. Batherson has provided a primary assist on 10 of Norris’ team-leading 18 goals.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Batherson-Norris-Tkachuk line has outscored the opposition 21-13 when it’s on the ice at five-on-five this season. But when Norris and Tkachuk are playing without Batherson, they’ve been outscored 9-3."

The eye test confirmed that all year pretty much.

Thanks for that. That's what I've seen with Batherson out too.

I'm of the belief that Batherson is the best player on that line right now, by a significant margin. But they fit so well together as a trio that any of them being out might mess things up quite a bit. Sadly we don't have much that we can do with this roster, other than just let them play.

Batherson is a huge loss.

 

[aragorn]

Tkachuk is the shit disturber, Norris is the shooter & Batherson is the set up man that drives the line. Stutzle needs to be the Batherson of his line & can be with more experience. Formenton brings the speed, but needs someone to get him the puck in full flight something C. Brown is good at. Stutzle also needs someone to take faceoffs for him & be the defensive conscience on that line which is why I like Pinto there who also has a hard shot like Norris. Pinto on RW creates two good young lines with size, speed, skill & scoring capabilities.

 

[sens13]

the issue is when no one is setting him up he doesn't do anything at all. last night he was very invisible.
tkacuhk/batherson are still creating a ton of chances even if they don't score but he really can't create much.

 

[HSF]

on the bright side we can see what we have in norris before he gets paid

Lets see if he can carry some offense or if he is a really good 2C

 

[Korpse]

It'll be tough. The reality of it is they can't create offense without Batherson and they're not particularly good defensively either.

"They’ll need to figure out how to replace the offensive catalyst who helps drive their top line. Batherson has provided a primary assist on 10 of Norris’ team-leading 18 goals.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Batherson-Norris-Tkachuk line has outscored the opposition 21-13 when it’s on the ice at five-on-five this season. But when Norris and Tkachuk are playing without Batherson, they’ve been outscored 9-3."

The eye test confirmed that all year pretty much.

Tkachuk and Norris without Batherson face much tougher deployment. Also looking at where those goals against come from, it's probably not a fair conclusion. To be clear, Batherson does make them better.

Sanford 53:12 2/3
Stutzle 22:37 0/3
Ennis 15:04 1/2
Watson 2:52 0/1

 

[OD99]

Let's give him time to adjust before declaring he can't cope without Batherson.

He has been the trigger man on that line for 2 seasons and like the natural scorer he is found himself in the right spot many times.

Now he will have to drive the puck more, get to the dirty areas more often and create that way. He will still find the net, I have confidence.

 

[Sun God Nika]

the guy with the norris tattoo got his jersey

 

[Boud]

Tkachuk and Norris without Batherson face much tougher deployment. Also looking at where those goals against come from, it's probably not a fair conclusion. To be clear, Batherson does make them better.

Sanford 53:12 2/3
Stutzle 22:37 0/3
Ennis 15:04 1/2
Watson 2:52 0/1

It's very easy to see that they're struggling without someone making plays on that line and the numbers back it up. Batherson doesn't only make them better, he makes them significantly better. He's our best forward by a large margin and only Stutzle will likely be close or hopefully even better. Tkachuk succeeds around the net, and Norris is a sniper, if no one is driving the play on that line nothing happens. The reason they face tougher deployment is because they can't keep possesion as much without Batherson and we get hemmed in. That means less offense and more Dzone faceoffs. When Batherson is on the line they drive offense so they don't need to be in the Dzone as much. You need to keep context when using these numbers. If the team spends 65% of the game without driving offense you will have tough deployment throughout the games regardless.

Norris will always be effective on the PP. At 5 on 5 it's another story. Scorers don't tend to do well without players that drive offense for them. Tkachuk can't bang in rebounds if we're struggling to be in the Ozone.

It's pretty similar to if you took Kaprizov off the Hartman Zuccarello line. They would struggle, a lot.

 

[Boud]

Let's give him time to adjust before declaring he can't cope without Batherson.

He has been the trigger man on that line for 2 seasons and like the natural scorer he is found himself in the right spot many times.

Now he will have to drive the puck more, get to the dirty areas more often and create that way. He will still find the net, I have confidence.

If there's a silver lining to this injury it's that we'll know what we have with Norris before extending him.

 

[bert]

If Drake is back I want to see him on Norris' wing. Norris needs someone to drive the line more than Timmy and Timmy works well with Formenton.

Yup exactly, Batherson and Norris are a great match. Really big fan of Norris's physicality and consistency.

 

[bert]

If there's a silver lining to this injury it's that we'll know what we have with Norris before extending him.

Good point!

 

[Hollel]

Question for you guys as an outsider Sens fan and fantasy norris owner… does Norris not posses the tools to be a line driver? Is it a lack of creativity or deception? Just seems like he has a lot things going for him otherwise

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Question for you guys as an outsider Sens fan and fantasy norris owner… does Norris not posses the tools to be a line driver? Is it a lack of creativity or deception? Just seems like he has a lot things going for him otherwise

Essentially you are correct. Will he develop those things ? Maybe probably not

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

 

[dumbdick]

So, if my math is right, Josh Norris has scored at a better G/GP than every player SINCE his draft year in 2017, except for Jason Robertson.

That includes Elias Pettersson, Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, Nico Hischier, etc.

Brady is 5th.