Prospect Info: Jonathan Lekkerimaki - Orebro, SHL
- Thread starter Mr. Canucklehead
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Frankie Blueberries
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- Jan 27, 2016
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It didn’t have to be our 1st this season (or could have been NYI’s 1st rather than making the Hronek deal). Chychrun in over OEL (or Soucy) is a huge upgrade.
Frankie Blueberries
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Chychrun is arguably a top pairing defenceman signed for two more years at $4.6 mill. This package would be the same as Hronek, except Lekkerimaki over our 2nd round pick.
If Lekkerimaki tracks well this year then his value will be more than a 1st rounder
Count me as one of the doubters last year after his terrible season. 2 goals though that's quite impressive, hope he keeps it up and makes me eat more crow. It's top 6 forward for him or bust.
MarkusNaslund19
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- Dec 28, 2005
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Yes there were many prominent posters who stated vociferously that he 'had the worth of a 3rd rounder' and that we should deal him before his value tanked further, that he was a terrible pick, that him struggling this past season (with a concussion, a foot injury, and mono) was a far greater indicator of his true value and upside as a player than his incredibly precocious performance in the SHL the previous season etc.
Those same people will now 'misremember' themselves as simply being 'cautious' or 'not sure if he was as good as hoped'.
And so it goes...
And for the record, for those like Grub above me who say, 'yeah I was overly pessimistic and it looks like I was wrong, I learned from this', no shade at all. Admitting to, learning from, and growing from our mistakes takes a lot of humility and self-awareness.
Those same people will now 'misremember' themselves as simply being 'cautious' or 'not sure if he was as good as hoped'.
And so it goes...
And for the record, for those like Grub above me who say, 'yeah I was overly pessimistic and it looks like I was wrong, I learned from this', no shade at all. Admitting to, learning from, and growing from our mistakes takes a lot of humility and self-awareness.
Watching majority of his last 2 games, I’m actually pretty impressed with his overall speed/quickness. His skating is a bit clunky especially his first couple of steps but when he’s building up momentum his skating becomes pretty robust. He’s definitely not afraid of board battles and loves the cycle game.
Skating needs to improve more and he also needs to work on decision making. Sometimes he hangs on too long or over think the play a little. Needs to apply himself better defensively and could use extra motivation. Would also like to see him start producing more at even strength.
Overall very nifty player with an underrated playmaking ability with an evidently great shot. He’s a player I’m probably the most invested in. He was not my pick at 15 last year but I’m very curious as to what type of player he’ll be for us. Very hard to read as a player to date so kinda want to get a better understanding.
Skating needs to improve more and he also needs to work on decision making. Sometimes he hangs on too long or over think the play a little. Needs to apply himself better defensively and could use extra motivation. Would also like to see him start producing more at even strength.
Overall very nifty player with an underrated playmaking ability with an evidently great shot. He’s a player I’m probably the most invested in. He was not my pick at 15 last year but I’m very curious as to what type of player he’ll be for us. Very hard to read as a player to date so kinda want to get a better understanding.
I wasn’t high on Lekkerimaki to begin with so I am hoping for the best. In terms of trade value, I have long said that there is curve. A prospect’s trade value basically drops the moment they are drafted. Rarely is a prospect worth significantly more the following draft relative to their draft position especially for a high first round pick. You basically have to wait until they get to the NHL in order for their trade value to increase.
A good example of what I am talking about is the Rundblad trade back in the day. He was drafted 17th overall, had a fantastic draft + 1 season, and was traded for the 16th overall pick the next year.
Or take Dobson. Most of us wouldn’t have an issue with drafting him #7 at the time but was anyone interested in trading the 10th overall pick + 2nd for him the next year?
Point is. Lekkerimaki was not worth much in a trade this summer after the season he had. That doesn’t mean much. If I was a fan of another team and my team traded a 2nd for him I would have been fine and trust that my team knew what they were doing.
TomWillander1RD
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- Jul 21, 2004
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I've never held a particularly positive view of Lekkerimaki, and wasn't thrilled when he was selected. When he began to struggle, it brought back memories of Juolevi, Virtanen, Rodin, and numerous other promising (?) prospects who couldn't fulfill their potential due to injuries. I believe my concerns were justified, and if we were to redo the draft before the last post-season, I don't think he would have been selected in the first two rounds. From that perspective, a third-round pick seemed like a fair value for him back then.
Nevertheless, I don't think there were many posters advocating for his trade before his stock declined further. By the time his value had already plummeted significantly, it became less than ideal to consider trading him.
I'm pleased to see that he has overcome his health issues and is now performing well. While it's still a limited sample size, based on what I've heard from other posters, he appears to be actively involved in the game and delivering solid performances. In any athlete's career, there will be numerous challenges and injuries to overcome. My hope is that he won't experience a slump like he did last season.
One thing I've learned to never doubt is the ability of Allvin to identify talent in Sweden. Not to mention talent drafted by other NHL organizations like Aman and Johansson, who eventually made their way to the Canucks.
So it would be a complete shock if Lekerimakki or Wilander busted hard.
So it would be a complete shock if Lekerimakki or Wilander busted hard.
…
You’re referring to MS saying that if he was drafted in the 2023 draft he probably would be taken in the third round due to the strength of the draft.
Agreed. On the other side of the coin many of us have been wrong over hyping prospects. Although I’m still holding out hope that Cole Cassels returns as the McDavid whisperer. Lol.
The thing though that I think a lot of people ignored with Lek was the potential impact that mono had on his game last year. Some are also saying that it’s only two games that he’s played like this but really it started last playoffs and continued though this preseason. He’s looked like an elite prospect for a decent stretch now.
Nothing I said was incorrect.
Prospect values aren't somehow static based on the where the player was picked. They fluctuate massively based on their recent success/development curve/etc.
The easiest example to look at is Raty, who was considered a top-3 overall pick when he was 17, was barely a 2nd rounder when he was 18, and was then back into late first-round territory when he was 19.
Lekkerimaki himself flew way up the rankings based on a tiny sample size of 16 points in 6 games at the 2022 U18s.
But people act like 6 games totally justifies a 15 or 20 spot move in the draft but a full season of poor play/poor results plus the addition of concussion issues wouldn't push a guy back 20 or 30 spots in a re-draft. It's the old thing where any draft pick doing well is OMG I AM JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS THAT THIS IS A STEAL and any pick who is struggling is WAIT AND SEE.
To be clear, I said he would drop into the 2nd round in a 2022 re-draft but would be a 3rd rounder in the 2023 draft - you're comparing the strongest draft in memory there to one of the weakest and 2022 Lekkerimaki might not even have been a 1st round pick in 2023.
And what I said was his value has dropped considerably, and he needs to start producing ASAP in order to rebuild his prospect status and value. And it appears that he's doing that, so now his value should be taking a bounce upward.
I fail to see what's so controversial about this and why people get so rattled by it.
The reverse is EP2 who had a great year for his draft position and would have moved up hugely in a re-draft but nobody has a problem with anyone saying that even though it's exactly the same thing.
And like, if some guy rated #15 overall for the 2024 draft right now proceeds to have an awful season (mono or not) and suffer a concussion and add 'concussion issues' to his resume, do you think he's going #15 overall in June?
Just A Bit Outside
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Shit start for Lek since drafted (for a multitude of reasons) but play so far this year is encouraging.
Hope he can keep it up.
Hope he can keep it up.
Frankie Blueberries
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Only on this forum would we have great news (prospect having a rebound year) that is immediately followed by “I told you so” condescending comments. Just shut up and enjoy having nice things, Jesus
It's so annoying.
It's also largely strawman stuff as there was maybe 1 dumb guy here calling him a bust.
He had a terrible year last year. He was poor in both WJCs, didn't score in a league he was expected to, and added 'concussion issues' to his plate on top of that. It was concerning and there was reason for concern and his stock/value absolutely dropped considerably.
Nothing that was said about him was really wrong.
Anyway, it's great that he's scoring. But it also doesn't mean that he's now a surefire NHLer, either.
I really don't want to go through this again, but it wasn't wrong and the way it triggered people was hilarious.
He would have been an overage player having a terrible season, coupled with concussion issues.
He was 15th in the terrible 2022 draft but the 2022 version of him would have been a borderline 1st round pick in the exceptional 2023 draft. The circa March 2023 version? Would have fallen like a rock.
1440
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- Feb 20, 2013
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Don't just make stuff up. He was good in the WJCs. It was a classic case of him being the second youngest forward on the team and starting lower in the lineup, but he earned more ice-time as the tournament went on and was among team leaders in points/60 and xG/60. He was probably Sweden's third best forward behind Carlsson and Bystedt, both of whom are much more physically mature than he. The biggest factor for me was how good he was despite not looking like he had the energy to engage physically or keep up with the intensity of the game. In hindsight, his conditioning just wasn't in mid-season form as it should have been, but he had a good excuse.
He also categorically wasn't terrible last year. He was mediocre and didn't score as expected in the regular season, but his playoffs were truly exceptional, and backed up by excellent all round play besides setting that playoff points record for his age. His play in the playoffs all but confirms the notion that injury and illness were major factors in his game early in the season.
He was also very good in the SHL preseason for what that's worth.
The only thing you are right about is that these first two games don't mean much. He has played a little more at the perimeter on 5v5 than what I saw both in the playoffs last year and in the preseason. PP goals are great, but I would like to see some ES production before we label his start to the season a success.
ChilliBilly
Registered User
Yes, but then we would be in even worse cap trouble, and probably have to throw in another draft pick to unload some salary.
We are a mid level team (hopefully). Those teams should not be throwing away draft picks and trying to become an elite team while being in cap trouble. We should not trade another draft pick until we have at least won a playoff round.
The thing is, 1st and 2nd rounders have a decent chance of filling out your line up on ELC salaries. If you don't have draft picks, you just don't have those players. Sure, you can replace them with AHL waiver fodder players, but they will be borderline players.
Lekkerimaki is a one-dimensional offensive player and scored 1 goal in 14 games over those two WJC tournaments. Yes, he was one of the younger guys there, but he was also one of the higher-drafted guys and he simply wasn't good. Didn't skate well relative to the level, didn't compete well, didn't produce.
The playoffs happened after the point in time that we're discussing. Obviously the stronger playoffs would have bumped his stock back up again. I did not (and would not) have claimed that he'd have gone in the 3rd round of 2023 after his playoffs. I made that statement at the point where he had 2 goals in 40 games between WJCs and his Swedish league plus had picked up a concussion.
Engages in historical revisionism to accuse others of historical revisionism.
Epic post.
Look, if you're going to publicly credit Grub, you should at least have the integrity to admit you're trying to, badly, call out MS.
MarkusNaslund19
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- Dec 28, 2005
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I'm not specifically calling out MS.
I respond to his comments when I disagree with him.
I don't necessarily recall precisely who said what but I recall pushing back against all of the knee-jerk nonsense comments about how Lekkerimaki sucks and he's just another sign of how f***ed this franchise is etc etc etc, with contextual posts about the challenges he was going through.
I got tons of shit for it and it's quite vindicating to see him thriving to start the year and I wish the culture here was a lot less histrionic, the sky is falling, etc. And when things go poorly it's, "See I told you" and when they go better it's revisionism around 'no, that's a strawman. I said, maybe he needs more time' or some bullshit like that.
If Hronek has a great season this year, for example, I implore you to take a look at the thread announcing his trade and how utterly beside themselves people were with contemptuous rage and note that there will be zero learning from that. People will unashamedly praise him and act like they always praised him or 'were hesitant'.
I'm not saying you can't be wrong without 'confessing' about it in every post.
It's the seething rage, hysterics, tribalism, etc. Which is never followed up with by a little, 'perhaps I was a little hasty'.
There are many posters who do show that humility and there are many who don't.
For those who feel called out by this, perhaps check in with yourself on why.
I literally didn't say a name in my post.
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