Player Discussion John-Jason (JJ) Peterka, RW (34th overall, 2020) -- Signed to ELC

[truthbluth]

Oh wow, they actually had a plan for a young prospect in the AHL? What type of wizardry is this?!

This is the kind of stuff that has me hopeful. But I am also aware that it will be a long(ish) haul. This year will be bad. Next year will be better, but not good. And we are looking at 2023-2024 season to compete for playoffs.

 

[Fezzy126]

The charts need some pretty heavy context given the impact of Covid in the last few years, but having watched this kid quite a bit I'd say 40% is a gross underestimate.

 

[Lloydchristmas138]

Isn’t NHLe a pretty overrated and dated statistical tool

 

[member 334057]

The charts need some pretty heavy context given the impact of Covid in the last few years, but having watched this kid quite a bit I'd say 40% is a gross underestimate.

I love how his probability of becoming an NHLer was 19% in his Draft year and has more than doubled to 40% in his D+2, yet somehow his star potential has dropped from 5% to 3%. You would think if his NHLer probability increases so do his chances of becoming a star player, though I guess if you aren't putting up 100 points in your D+2 you're a fringe player to this guy.

 

[joshjull]

Isn’t NHLe a pretty overrated and dated statistical tool

Depends on what you’re using it for.

 

[Dingo44]

Wheeler has Peterka as the Sabres # 5 prospect in his annual ranking of NHL prospect pools (Sabres are #1)

Wheeler’s 2022 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 1 Buffalo Sabres – The Athletic

5. JJ Peterka, LW, 20 (Rochester Americans)
You can add Peterka to the list of Sabres prospects whose seasons have gone about as well as you could hope for. He’s one of the AHL’s best young players and his middle-six projection now feels firm. Peterka’s game is built around his athleticism, his dexterity, and his ability to powerfully drive the net and forecheck. But he has also learned to focus less on the net, he has built some east-west creativity into his toolkit, and he has added dimensions to his shot (which has always been a strength but now features, for example, a useful one-timer). He used to play exclusively on instinct and feel, rather than calm and patience. And while that’s still central to his game, he has learned to slow and play at tempos other than his buzzsaw one. I don’t think he’s going to put up big counting stats at the next level, but Peterka’s going to be a fan favourite for his style of play, his effort level, and his competitiveness. He just goes out on the ice and makes things happen.

 

[SabresNorth]

Depends on what you’re using it for.

I like Bader's content. His model has produced some really good results at times and also missed some players as well.

For those who don't follow he's doing a Buffalo related experiment right now. His plan is to draft along with buff and Seattles entire drafts taking his bpa(because 1 and 2 last year). He's planning to stick with it for a few years and it'll be fun to see how it turns out.


He had a thread on it. Brandt Clarke, Chaz luscious, olen zelwigger, red savage where his first 4.

 

[GrierIsGod123]

Bader would have taken Clarke over Power?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Bader would have taken Clarke over Power?

Yes. His model is based on flimsy data, especially for defensemen.

 

[GrierIsGod123]

Yes. His model is based on flimsy data, especially for defensemen.

POINTZZZZZZ!!!

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Bader would have taken Clarke over Power?

Pretty much already disqualifies this experiment.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Yes. His model is based on flimsy data, especially for defensemen.

I don't think I've ever seen any stat-based draft model that does a good (or even OK) job with defensemen.

 

[SabresNorth]

I don't think I've ever seen any stat-based draft model that does a good (or even OK) job with defensemen.

You guys are probably right on the dmen. Owen Power went from not being as successful in his model last year to absolutely torching it this season(like all time good). It seems to me it does better with smaller forwards. I wouldn't take it as gospel or anything but personally I still find it a fun/interesting method.

JJP coming from a league with less data points is probably a factor as well. I am super excited for Peterka and just expect him to be one of the many outliers in this model.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I don't think I've ever seen any stat-based draft model that does a good (or even OK) job with defensemen.

and, really, how could it. Just too many unknown variables that a model can’t quantify….much less then take those (unknown) numbers and create a predictive analysis

 

[Snippit]

He's the real deal, production-wise. 11th in AHL scoring, with lots of 5v5 production, and lately has been doing it without Quinn.

He'll get his remaining 7 NHL games for sure, and next year I think he's going to fit like a glove with the other young guys.

 

[Ace]

The best part of Peterka’s recent play is that Quinn isn’t there. The two of them were magic together…but Peterka has picked it up even further in his absence.

 

[jcurry4]

This kid is going to be a stud. His skating, hands, shot, hockey sense, and compete are all high end. I am very bullish on him being a top line player. I would argue his play has been more impressive than his stats. I’ve watched about 20 Roch games and he has been the most impressive player more often than not

 

[Reddawg]

This kid is going to be a stud. His skating, hands, shot, hockey sense, and compete are all high end. I am very bullish on him being a top line player. I would argue his play has been more impressive than his stats. I’ve watched about 20 Roch games and he has been the most impressive player more often than not

I started noticing this two WJC’s ago, he’s the one making the players around him look better and play better. Every time Stutzle was making a great play in that WJC, it was JJ cashing the check.

 

[sabres4ever]

His shot is incredible. I'd wager he'll be one of the first three shooters in the shootout for us. He's fast, thick, and can snipe from close in.

I've noticed lately he's not all smiles after scoring a goal. He's got that look of "yeah, another goal" swagger about him, like he's done it so often, this is just another one.

Put a couple seasons behind him in the NHL, and look the F out.

 

[Chainshot]

His shot is incredible. I'd wager he'll be one of the first three shooters in the shootout for us. He's fast, thick, and can snipe from close in.

I've noticed lately he's not all smiles after scoring a goal. He's got that look of "yeah, another goal" swagger about him, like he's done it so often, this is just another one.

Put a couple seasons behind him in the NHL, and look the F out.

He was doing that earlier too - there is a walk-off (skate off?) shootout goal that he just turns toward the bench. It's part of what other teams hate playing against him. It's to get in their heads.

It seems to work.

 

[Fjordy]

Peterka continues to rock, a very skilled player, he should play in the NHL next season.

 

[RecycledEichel]

Peterka continues to rock, a very skilled player, he should play in the NHL next season.

Only a 40% chance of that happening

 

[beerme1]

This is the kind of stuff that has me hopeful. But I am also aware that it will be a long(ish) haul. This year will be bad. Next year will be better, but not good. And we are looking at 2023-2024 season to compete for playoffs.

I will say this entirely depends on who the goalie is next season. If it's UPL I think we are good next season. If it's a retread I think you're right. I remember seeing Montreal turn over in one season and make the playoffs after being bad for three years or something before that and they looked lost but something happened. Maybe it was Carey Price.

 

[Fjordy]

Only a 40% chance of that happening

Why 40%?

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Why 40%?

It’s a reference to this (which says he has a 40% chance of playing at least 200 games):