There seems to be a narrative that the going rate for a guy like Edmundson has been a 1st for quite some time. I looked back to 2012 to see which defensemen were dealt in trades involving 1st's. While I may have missed someone here is what I found:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]2022[/TD]
[TD]Romanov+4th[/TD]
[TD]Lindholm[/TD]
[TD]Chariot[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2021
[/TD]
[TD]OEL[/TD]
[TD]Ristolainen[/TD]
[TD]Savard[/TD]
[TD]Jones[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2020
[/TD]
[TD]Karlsson[/TD]
[TD]Skjei[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2019
[/TD]
[TD]Trouba[/TD]
[TD]Muzzin[/TD]
[TD]Montour[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2018
[/TD]
[TD]McDonagh with Miller[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2017
[/TD]
[TD]Shattenkirk[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2016
[/TD]
[TD]Yandle[/TD]
[TD]Sekera[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2015
[/TD]
[TD]Hamilton[/TD]
[TD]Franson[/TD]
[TD]Coburn[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2014
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2013
[/TD]
[TD]Bouwmeester[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2012
[/TD]
[TD]Quincey[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
One interesting thing to note here is that many of these trades involve the Lightning! That said There is no significant evidence here to support a case for a 1st for Edmundson based on precedence.
Chiarot, Ristolainen, Savard, Franson, Coburn, Quincey those a all D pretty much in the same tier maybe even could add Skjei, Montour, Shatt, Yandle and Sekera which are in the also in the 2pairing D tier but with completely different skill set.
I think there a is pretty strong to history to support that he could be worth a 1st since most of these guy when for more than juste a 1st,1st ++ and were pure rental. Also when you are looking at comparable for #4 guys you also have to look at all the #5 to 7 guy that were traded and when a bottom pairring is worth a somewhere between a 4th to 2nd +, it is only more evidence that a #4 guy like Edmondson with 50% retention and term is closer to a 1st.
The closest comparable I think would be Marco Scandella (better than most #5D but wasn't a #3) and he got traded 2nd+4th as a rental at the TDL, and that was shortly (2month) after being dealt for a 4th as a cap dump... Edmundson never reach those kind of low that Scandella had in is career and the cap is now a even bigger factor. So to me the base value is with 50% retain is probably 2x2nd
People can say that GM are crazy but there is a different one every year and you only need one and if there is a team it is because there is another will to make the exact same for just a hair less.
MTL GM already say that is objective was to add another 1st rd pick.
I agree that is value isn't a 1st but it is pretty close to a late 1st if there is more than 1 team trying to acquire and other seller aren't giving any discount, a 1st isn't that big of a strentch and even if there isn't a team that flinch, Montreal have enough assets or flexibility to try to massage a deal for a 1st, if that is what they want
Edmundson at 1.75M$
+3rd - 5th rd pick
+ prospect like Struble, Ylonen, Mysak
+taking on 3M$ cap hit (2 years max)
+ Mtl to give a pick for a 3rd team to retain or take a cap dump
Mtl doesn't have to trade him so if he is move it will only be because someone overpaid so a 1st or a some kind of equivalent prospect or pick package, eveyone will say that they over paid and they will be right because that is the only way to get the deal done..., KH will just set is price and he won't move and call everyone bluff, since he doesn't have anything to lose and that the best and only way to extract the most value.
In term of cost in latest trade
Chiarot >> Savard>Giordano >>> Kulak
so if he is traded the value of the return will be less than Savard more than Kulak (2nd+7th) probably closer to Giordano (3x2nd)...