How about this one -
To Edmonton: Joel Edmundson (50 percent retained)
To Montreal: 2023 1st round pick, 2024 conditional 2nd round pick (condition is if the Oilers make it to the cup finals in 2023), and a cap dump of either Derek Ryan or Mattias Janmark (their choice).
Oilers get their physical defenseman, with retention for two years, without giving up a current prospect, and they clear some cap by dumping a player. Habs get their 1st round pick they've been after, a lottery ticket on the potential second rounder and take back a body.
The Oilers can then turn around and retain on Edmundson once again, if they wanted to move him in the second year, and recoup some of the price they paid to acquire him.
Close?
Definitely not close at all.
To start, Ryan and Janmark don’t make enough money to be considered cap dumps. If the Oilers wanted to they could remove both of their cap hits essentially in their entirety simply by waiving either player but both bring something to the bottom 6 so I doubt they’d do that.
Getting to value it’s quite frankly awful. Given the cap climate extra years on deals are having great effects on player value, it can be a blessing or a curse, in Edmundson’s case it’s likely the latter. GM’s aren’t going to look at what Edmundson did 2 years ago, they’re going to look at his results this season and by both the eye test and analytically they’ve been very poor. He’s looked slow, missing defensive assignments, struggling with his gap control and struggling to play physically without taking penalties that hurt his team. Then getting into injuries it adds another layer of risk having the second year. He’s about to be 30, was never a strong skater to begin with and missed most of last year with a back injury. There’s strong evidence that shows back injuries are prone to become reoccurring issues especially for older players. Edmundson relies on playing a physical brand of hockey so a bad back could be problematic for his playing style. Then he started the season this year injured, so in less than a season and a half he’s had two injuries that have kept him out for considerable time… not exactly what you want to see in a player you’re considering giving up assets for.
GM’s aren’t going to give up anything of value for Edmundson until closer to the deadline, they’re going to want to see him stay healthy and they’re going to want to see if he’s going to be able to turn his game around and return to being a reliable, physical player who doesn’t bleed goals and hurt his team. In a season where there’s bound to be quite a few sellers as the season goes on, they’re also going to want to see what other options become available on the market.