Last few weeks have been disappointing. But the Jays have played the 2nd most games against teams above .500. Tampa is 1st.
The Jays next 12 games will be;
3 vs Baltimore
2 vs Miami
4 vs Baltimore
3 vs Seattle
They are winning at least 8 games here and if they dont then we have a clear sign they might be in trouble.
After that they have a tough stretch with 6 vs the Rays but get the O's and Rangers again;
3 vs the Rays
3 vs Baltimore
3 vs the Rays
3 vs Texas
At this point the deadline is 12 days later. If the Jays arent at least 5 games above .500 they can reevaluate.
Jays current record: 33-34
Record:
vs Non-playoff Teams: 10-7 (.588)
vs Playoff Teams: 15-20 (.429)
vs the Yankees and Cleveland: 8-7 (.533)
Games remaining; 95 Games
vs Non-playoff Teams: 52 games (19 BAL, 7 MIN, 6 SEA, 6 DET, 4 LAA, 3 KC, 3 TEX, 2 MIA, 2 WSH)
vs Playoff Teams: 32 games (12 TB, 10 BOS, 3 NYM, 4 CHW, 3 OAK)
vs the Yankees and Cleveland: 11 games (7 NYY, 4 CLE)
We will dread 12 games vs TB but the remaining 83 are very winnable.
If the Jays keep their current pace vs these teams they will hit 84 wins (31 wins vs non playoff teams, 14 vs playoff teams and 6 vs the NYY and CLE).
Theoretically the Jays will get healthier and potentially better while the non playoff teams should get worse so they should beat those teams at a higher rate than 59%.
Jays are 33-34. If they split the 29 games vs TB, BOS and NYY then they are 47-49, If they play .600 ball vs the bottom feeders, then thats 40 wins, puts them at 87 wins, right in the mix. If they do better in any of those games and barring injury, they are pushing 90 wins.