Here's the purpose of getting vaccinated.
Virtually all hospitalized Covid patients have one thing in common: They're unvaccinated
Blue Jays Discussion: Joe Panik: the hero we deserve
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Here's the purpose of getting vaccinated.
Virtually all hospitalized Covid patients have one thing in common: They're unvaccinated
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Donaldson-esque would be underselling it.
10 WAR in a season would be insane because only 3 Jays position players ever broke 8 fWAR in a season (Donaldson's 2015 at 8.7, 2011 Bautista and 1993 Olerud at 8.1 apiece)
But more than that, there have only been 24 players in Blue Jays history that have accumulated at least 10.0 fWAR in their entire Jays career. Out of 209 players who have recorded at least 200 PAs in a Blue Jays uniform a 10.0 WAR season from Vladdy would put him in the upper echelon of Jays careers and tie him for 23rd on the all-time career Jays fWAR list with Shawn Green once you factor in his 0.6 from the previous 2 seasons.
It cannot be understated: What we are seeing out of 2021 Vladimir Guerrero Jr is top, top, top tier historic domination.
Just looking at the teams around the Jays and I think the Red Sox will start to fall. Their pitching has overachieved and their schedule has been fairly easy.
Yankees starting pitching isn't good after Cole. A surprise to me is their bats have really sucked. LeMahieu has hit poorly and Judge and Stanton have a tough time staying healthy. Yankees don't really concern me.
Cleveland, great pitching and in an easier division helps them but their offense sucks. Not a threat to the Jays but being in the Central helps them a lot playing three mediocre teams.
Astros excellent team that is better than the A's. Not a threat to the Jays because they will overtake the A's soon. Angles are coming on and could be a team to watch out for.
Don't think the Jays will catch the Rays. IMO the Rays are the best team in the AL.
When it comes to the WC there's
Yanks
Red Sox
Cleveland
Astros's/A's
Angles
Out of those teams, only the Astros can match the Jays offensively.
Out of those teams, Cleveland, A's, and the Astors have the better starting pitching. Not doing the relievers because I don't know but I assume the Jays have the worst relief pitching as it stands now.
If the Jays got another solid starter and a few relievers they would be better than all of those teams on paper. Astros would be close.
Yankees starting pitching isn't good after Cole. A surprise to me is their bats have really sucked. LeMahieu has hit poorly and Judge and Stanton have a tough time staying healthy. Yankees don't really concern me.
Cleveland, great pitching and in an easier division helps them but their offense sucks. Not a threat to the Jays but being in the Central helps them a lot playing three mediocre teams.
Astros excellent team that is better than the A's. Not a threat to the Jays because they will overtake the A's soon. Angles are coming on and could be a team to watch out for.
Don't think the Jays will catch the Rays. IMO the Rays are the best team in the AL.
When it comes to the WC there's
Yanks
Red Sox
Cleveland
Astros's/A's
Angles
Out of those teams, only the Astros can match the Jays offensively.
Out of those teams, Cleveland, A's, and the Astors have the better starting pitching. Not doing the relievers because I don't know but I assume the Jays have the worst relief pitching as it stands now.
If the Jays got another solid starter and a few relievers they would be better than all of those teams on paper. Astros would be close.
as Pure as Evil
Registered User
think ill have to watch the mlb replay of todays game but on the boston feed so i can hear eckersly discredit our young guys as they destroy ball after ball
well guess that wasn't the case. 2 innings in and all they have done is gush over our crew
well guess that wasn't the case. 2 innings in and all they have done is gush over our crew
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kb
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- Aug 28, 2009
- 15,358
- 22,025
Bets on the bats being cold for a few games now? lol They used up 3 games worth of runs today.
Nice to see Biggio and especially Bichette heating up. Imagine if you will, this lineup....
Springer
Bichette
Guerrero
Hernandez
Semien
Kirk
Grichuk
Gurriel
Kirk
Biggio
I know, I know.....I'm sad about Panik not being in the lineup too.
Nice to see Biggio and especially Bichette heating up. Imagine if you will, this lineup....
Springer
Bichette
Guerrero
Hernandez
Semien
Kirk
Grichuk
Gurriel
Kirk
Biggio
I know, I know.....I'm sad about Panik not being in the lineup too.
Thanks. That further proved my point. 706 people out of the 101 million fully vaccinated were admitted to hospital. Those numbers are fantastic
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
I think the Covid talk has gone about as far as it can/should go. Don't need to keep dragging the thread off-topic any more than it has been already.
phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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Kurtz
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- Jul 17, 2005
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Only because this is a legitimate question that doesn't seem to have been answered. In 3-year old terms:
My understanding is that when Covid enters your body, it begins to replicate. The body detects the virus and starts developing an anti-body to fight the virus. After some time, it develops the anti-body and the anti-body attacks the virus.
Now if you're in great health, have a strong immune system and you didn't inhale copious amounts of the virus, you will almost always be fine - in fact you may never know that you had the virus unless tested. But if a few of those things go wrong - say you inhale a big viral load, your immune system is a little slow (as happens when you age) or you already suffer from pre-existing maladies, you're in trouble. The virus can get you before you get the virus.
All the vaccine does is deliver the blueprint of the virus into your system. Your body detects it as it would the virus, and begins producing the antibodies. That way, if you do actually end up getting the virus, your body would have already produced the necessary antibodies to quickly detect and ambush the virus. During this time, you can still test positive for having covid, and if your initial viral load was large enough you can even still get sick - but you'll recover fast and you won't die.
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Anthrax442
Registered User
Anthrax442
Registered User
Anthrax442
Registered User
Unfortunately, Semien will likely be looking for a Springer type contract which really isn't worth the expense given the ridiculous amount of infield depth the Jays have and with two starting pitchers on expiring contracts.
You're better off saving that money for Ray, and, since Guerrero will likely be getting a massive Donaldson-like pay raise, Guerrero.
As much as I'd love to see this line-up, and I totally want to and I hope we'll get at least a couple years out of Kirk until Moreno is ready, but there's now a very real chance Kirk will be traded. Moreno has pretty much made him expendable, Hernandez needs to play somewhere when Springer comes back, and this team has all the offense it could ever want. With two pitchers on expiring contracts and a bullpen blowing games like crazy, this team is now desperate for pitching and teams will be asking for Kirk. I'd rather they trade guys like Jansen and Tellez, another 1b/DH type we don't need anymore now that we have the best one on the planet, but let's face it, nobody is going to be asking for Jansen and Tellez. Not for good starting pitching, anyway.
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Obviously it always comes down to price and term, but if Semien wants to stick around in Toronto I wouldn't hesitate to try to work out an extension and then flip some of the infield prospects to bring in the pitching they need. Semien is proving to be an elite talent, and I don't think you let that go to make way for prospects (even high end ones like Martin and Groshans). Those guys are great to have if you can't work out a deal, but I think that should be the backup plan to retaining Semien.
Vladdy's Wrc+ this year would be 23rd all-time for a single season.
He is on pace to have the 21st best offensive value season ever and the last season not by Bonds or McGwire above him was Ted Williams.
There have been 54 10 fWAR seasons for position players per FanGraphs. The only recent ones are Trout(x2), Betts and Posey. He is currently on a 10.5 pace.
He is on pace to have the 21st best offensive value season ever and the last season not by Bonds or McGwire above him was Ted Williams.
There have been 54 10 fWAR seasons for position players per FanGraphs. The only recent ones are Trout(x2), Betts and Posey. He is currently on a 10.5 pace.
An elite talent that will be 31 years old at the end of his contract. And he hasn't even played on turf, yet.
You're thinking too short-term. Resigning Semien and trading for a decent pitcher will likely add $30 million per year to the payroll, with something like $100 million+ on an aging player. And that's assuming we won't have to overpay for him like the Jays always have to do. You've now committed a quarter of your entire team's payroll to just two players, both of which will likely not be worth the money in just a few years. And you haven't even paid Guerrero and Hernandez yet, which are a couple 20 something players who will be looking for $10 million+ bumps in their pay, nor have you paid Ray or Matz, two players that contribute to the Jays' biggest weakness: pitching.
OR
You let Semien walk and take the compensation pick, then get your pitcher. Use the money you would have blown on Semien to lock-up Guerrero since he's going to ask for roughly that much anyway. Biggio keeps on getting on base and hitting home runs making him a perfectly decent replacement for Semien (and, hey, maybe he gets better at 2B. If Guerrero can, Biggio certainly can). Throw another uber talented but super cheap infielder onto the team (Lopez is looking good), and use the money to sign a good pitcher, something we actually need, when Ray and Matz walk (or resign them, if possible). With this set up, you've now addressed all of the Jays pressing needs without trading any prospects or throwing out another $100million+ contract on an aging offensive player that you don't need one bit.
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3-4 years at $20-25 million per would be really good value for Semien.
3 years 70-75 million
4 years, 80-85 million
something like that.
You get him for his 31, 32, 33 seasons and still give him motivation to play for another contract which I think can be important.
I think 100+ million over 5 years would turn me off a bit... would rather something like 3 years, 70-75 million or 4 years 85 million. Not that he can't be worth 100+ million but it's less of a value contract at that point. I could probably be persuaded either way just because Semien does have the underlying numbers but that's my initial thoughts right now.
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SDig14
Registered User
I also don't think $150 million contracts are going to be handed out that easily. Most teams will still have low revenue this year compared to pre-pandemic and Semien needs to compete with Baez, Story, Correa and Seager for middle infield money. I don't think there are even 5 teams out there looking to spend $100+ million on their middle infield right now.
The A's were dumb to not qualify him, but 1 year, $18 million was his best offer after a down shortened season.
I think 4 years, $80 million probably is close to what he would want (assuming he wants to stay). And I would do that.
If he wants more than that, then let him explore the market that has competition and not a ton of deep pockets.
The A's were dumb to not qualify him, but 1 year, $18 million was his best offer after a down shortened season.
I think 4 years, $80 million probably is close to what he would want (assuming he wants to stay). And I would do that.
If he wants more than that, then let him explore the market that has competition and not a ton of deep pockets.
Yeah, so that's where "it always comes down to term and price" comes in. It's not short-term thinking if Semien gets four years and his contract expires before Vlad and Bo hit free agency. And you have replaced Ray/Matz by keeping Semien and trading some of the prospect capital to bring in a very good, young, cost-controlled starter (like the Snell or Musgrove trades last year).
Neither of Vlad or Teoscar is going to get a $10 million raise. Teoscar might get a $3-4 million raise next year, and Vlad isn't going to get a raise at all because he'll still make the minimum next year, then as he gets more expensive (though still extremely cheap) the Ryu and Grichuk contracts come off the books. Allocating a significant portion of the payroll to "aging players" (also, "legitimate stars", but describe them how you like) is doable when you have a handful of young stars making league minimum and cheap arbitration rates.
AllDay28
Registered User
- Oct 15, 2015
- 3,611
- 2,705
thank you so much for this.
on topic of Jays; boy I love being wrong about my negativity towards Vladdy to start the year
Hill I’ll die on: I want Kris Bryant
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