gojetsgo
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- Nov 1, 2015
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perhaps our prospects just aren't as good or ready as people think? the only person that really hasn't got an opportunity was kovacevic and he looks to top out as a 3rd pairing d
Prospect Info: Jets Prospects
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So..... is Brad Lambert officially our best prospect now?
The answer, of course, is yes.
And real heads been saying that since he was drafted.
The answer, of course, is yes.
And real heads been saying that since he was drafted.
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Aries56
Registered User
It's a difficult transition going from AHL to NHL. Everyone in the NHL has excelled in all aspects of the game at lower levels. Even Lowry had a 45 goal season in the WHL.
A prospect is probably better off playing big minutes in the AHL and developing a consistent game, rather than play sheltered minutes in the NHL. I remember watching a game where Heinola looked awful, but then he's looked flawless in other games. I think coaches want consistency, so they know what to expect from the player. If half the time he's flawless and half the time he's losing battles, he's probably going to be riding the bench. In my opinion, that's the only reason Heinola is still in the AHL, to work on his consistency.
A prospect is probably better off playing big minutes in the AHL and developing a consistent game, rather than play sheltered minutes in the NHL. I remember watching a game where Heinola looked awful, but then he's looked flawless in other games. I think coaches want consistency, so they know what to expect from the player. If half the time he's flawless and half the time he's losing battles, he's probably going to be riding the bench. In my opinion, that's the only reason Heinola is still in the AHL, to work on his consistency.
- Jun 10, 2014
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I'm disappointed that he left and that he feels hard done by. But if that is how he feels, too bad. He was still a borderline prospect due to defensive deficiencies so not that big a loss.
OTOH he was the top RHD prospect in the organization. Maybe if the Jets had called him up for a game or two, as they often do to reward AHL players who have performed well, he might have felt more appreciated.
Maybe, but you can still find a way to give a prospect that has performed quite well over 4 years in the AHL at least one opportunity up in the big league. Otherwise there's no point for these guys to sign with Winnipeg at all.
None
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- Feb 22, 2012
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Someone should tell the Habs then because he was playing 2.5mins more 5 on 5 per game than Dylan Samberg was for the Jets with better (relative) results. Samberg must be a replacement level player if that's the bar for 3rd pair.
| 5vs5 TOI/GP | PK TOI/GP | CF%/Rel | FF%/Rel | SF%/Rel | GF%/Rel | xG%/Rel | Off. Zone Faceoff % | |
| Samberg, Dylan | 12:41 (227th) | 2:00 (93rd)* | 3.24 (45th) | 3.67 (33rd) | 4.72 (20th) | 1.81 (93rd) | 4.26 (33rd) | 50.5 |
| Kovacevic, Johnathan | 15:08 (150th) | 1:59 (94th)* | 3.51 (39th) | 3.28 (44th) | 1.61 (75th) | 6.48 (42nd) | 6.33 (13th) | 45.38 |
(League rank among defensemen with minimum 200 mins played in parenthesis.)
* PK TOI/60 ranking with minimum 60 mins. shorthanded.
gojetsgo
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maybe at the end of the year when you are out of the playoffs or got your spot locked in you can give the player a game or two but we were in a battle and pretty sure gawanke would be the 3rd call up on the moose and 11th on the depth chart
It's not like even in November giving a Gawanke 10-15 minutes a few times over another 3rd-pairing option is going to cost the season.
superdeluxe
NAFO
Got one more home game with these two. Gonna miss Brad!
gojetsgo
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Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick
www.naturalstattrick.com
CF%: samberg 54% kovacevic 48%
FF%: samberg 54% kovacevic 48%
GF%: samberg 54% kovacevic 49%
XGF%: samberg 55% kovacevic 48%
HDCF% samberg 56% kovacevic 44%
HDGF% samberg 51% kovacevic 40%
pretty sure relative just compares the stats vs their teammates, so kovacevic outperformed his horrible d-core where samberg performed around the same
gojetsgo
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did you see how close we were to missing the playoffs, we needed those games in november, giving our 11th defensemen on the depth chart a pat on the back isn't worth it, this is the best league in the world not peewee hockey where you have to play everyone
None
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- Feb 22, 2012
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There's some argument to be made for team strength playing a role in Kovacevic being a standout amongst the dregs on the Canadiens with relative stats. But he was also 1st in GAR on the Habs, and among rookie defensemen leaguewide he was 2nd in defensive GAR, and 3rd in offensive GAR. GAR isolates impact and isn't influenced by team strength in any significant way.
Edit: Rephrased
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I'm sure this is an issue in every org. The fringe guys know they have a limited window to make it and when they don't get an opportunity they feel they deserve it generally leads to them parting with the org.
Having said that the Jets need to be careful here. They are largely dependent on the draft for their talent. They can't afford to block their best prospects and have them get pissed and demand out. I feel we've dropped the ball with our d prospects in order to keep around known expensive and mediocre dmen on the roster.
Guys like Heionola and Chisholm have done everything they can to show they are worthy of an extended look.
Having said that the Jets need to be careful here. They are largely dependent on the draft for their talent. They can't afford to block their best prospects and have them get pissed and demand out. I feel we've dropped the ball with our d prospects in order to keep around known expensive and mediocre dmen on the roster.
Guys like Heionola and Chisholm have done everything they can to show they are worthy of an extended look.
I understand why Gawanke's defensive game wasn't seen favorably compared to someone like Samberg, but he led Manitoba in scoring quite comfortably over his time there and that as a defenseman. The absolute worst that could have happened in the big league is that he's on the ice for a goal or two against and gets benched. The best that he takes his opportunity and runs with it. Now he's someone that prospects and agents will look at as a cautionary tale, having thrown away four years of his career for nothing with the Jets.
None
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- Feb 22, 2012
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Exactly, at some point you just need to give them a legitimate opportunity. They're some of the best players in their roles in the AHL. What more can we even ask of those players who are basically at the pinnacle of performance in the AHL?
Other teams are making use of our castoffs because the Jets are stubbornly stuck in their lineup structure and refuse to alter it to fit legitimate NHL talent. It's a little ironic because the Moose have been pretty good at structuring the roster and lineup to fit their talent better.
I've never really seen NHL potential in Gawanke. He's just too weak and erratic defensively, and doesn't have nearly the offensive capability to offset it (mainly a big shot).
Still, I am concerned that in their pursuit of short-term success the Jets developed a glut in their prospect pipeline. Kovacevic is an obvious example, but Samberg was also stuck until Stanley was injured.
I think the Jets need to unclog the pipeline and accelerate the integration of young players. I'm concerned that Bowness isn't really the right coach for that shift, though.
Still, I am concerned that in their pursuit of short-term success the Jets developed a glut in their prospect pipeline. Kovacevic is an obvious example, but Samberg was also stuck until Stanley was injured.
I think the Jets need to unclog the pipeline and accelerate the integration of young players. I'm concerned that Bowness isn't really the right coach for that shift, though.
I agree with all of this. A draft and develop org needs to be able to provide real opportunities.
lomiller1
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- Jan 13, 2015
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You can't compare CF%, xGF% etc across teams as it's heavily impacted by team CF%, xGF%. Relitive CF%, xGF% is a much more reliable way to compare players on different teams.
Evolving Hockey has a model for on-ice shot metrics that adjusts for teammates, situation, etc.
Samberg and Kovacevic both had strong shot metrics. I don't pay much attention to the goal for metrics D, since they often don't have a big impact.
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Romang67
BitterSwede
Eeeh. That's simplifying to an extreme degree. An okay player playing with okay teammates on a really bad team will have great relative stats. A good player playing with good teammates on a good team will not. Slavin is one of the best defensive D-men in the league, but his relative metrics look pedestrian year after year.
None
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- Feb 22, 2012
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I don't think the post you're quoting is saying anything contrary to what you're saying. It's true that you can't use raw CF%, xGF% etc. to compare players directly. It's also true that relative stats do work better for that but with caveats and require added context.
The added context being that Kovacevic was more influential in what little success that the Habs had isn't false.
Perhaps this organization's asset assessment isn't as good as people think.
Romang67
BitterSwede
The post is saying that relative stats are better to use to compare players between teams. Relative stats aren't strictly better, and using them to deem a player on a team with garbage shot metrics better than a player on a stronger team is a fool's errand.
GaryPoppins
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Fwiw, I see Kovacevic coming back in a PLD trade ironically.
I’d love to see a back end with Samberg, Chisholm, Heinola, Kovacevic with Morrissey and Demelo.
Let the kids figure it out. It’d be fun, atleast
