Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation (12-13 Part XIII)

[Jet]

I agree.

I am tired of the Detroit this Detroit that mantra that gets thrown around here. The reason they keep players out for so long is because they have more often than not drafted low and the players they take need an awful lot of work to ever make it. Look at who they have produced over the last number of years, its a collection of 3rd and 4th line forwards and 3rd pairing defense man. Not going to bash them for that as its good to have a steady stream of bottom 6 talent, but they haven't had prospects of Trouba's and Scheifele's pedigree for many years so who really knows how they would have handled these players.

The team I look at with regards to a template is the Ottawa Senators who imo are best drafting and development organization since Murray took over. If you look at them they take a multifaceted approach to prospect development based on the readiness of each individual player.

Karlasson: Left in Europe one year post draft before bringing him over to North America to play right off the bat for the Senators (Norris winner so clearly wasn't rushed nor needed the Detroit 5 year plan)

Cowen: Sent back to juniors twice before making the NHL full time (Had a terrific rookie year and its unfortunate that he suffered another severe injury)

Silverberg and Wiercoch (sp) Took the long run approach with both. Wierchoch 2 years of college plus a couple of AHL seasons. Silverberg spent a number of years in Europe honing his craft before coming over.

As can be seen all of the above have turned into excellent players and each followed very different development tracks. Good organizations recognize that players develop at different speeds and correctly tailor development plans based on the individual player. They don't force players into a one for all development mold.

I know people are sour about the Red Wings comparison. I probably shouldn't have used it. They do take their time with their prospects and I truly believe giving players who are less 'blue chip' more time to get better in true development leagues make them better players when they get to the NHL. It also allows the Red Wings to keep winning on the ice cause they don't have to teach on the job.

As for your Senators comparison, obviously they have drafted exceptionally well and we didn't know it until really this year when their 'fluke' season of last year was disproven. Even through injury the team keeps rolling along. Part of that is the way that Binghamton and Ottawa mirror each other in organizational systems and methods of play.

- Karlsson: Let me know when the Jets have a Karlsson in the system that we are holding back, then we can talk.

- Wiercioch: Are you talking about the same guy who cleared waivers just before the trade deadline? Not a good example. His modest success more to do with my first point about Binghamton and Ottawa.

I think where the real disconnect is happening between the two sides here is that the Jets prospects just aren't either as mature, or as 'blue chip' as the other players who perform well off the bat on an NHL roster elsewhere.

So, if you can forgive my Red Wings 'mantra', the philosophy is sound.

 

[surixon]

There it is. The fact is, the Jets do not think that Scheifele is ready to contribute at an NHL level -- they do not think he is ready. Of course it's on a game by game basis. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Trouba a regular on this team before Scheifele. Why? Roles. I think Trouba might be more physically and mentally ready to step in as a bottom pair guy than Scheifele is to come in and play top 6 where he belongs.

People have Mark in as 2C next season which might happen but that is a lot harder to do than some might think.

As for the Hawks, in retrospect they may not have been the best example, but the mere fact that they had to dismantle after one cup should show that they burnt years of their young talent on wasted NHL years when they could have taken a more measured approach. Again, I know a lot of that was bad choices by Tallon (Khabibulin e.g.) but if you are going to spend 5+ years sucking and drafting high, you had better be a cup contender for more than a couple years as a reward.

Tallon ran into trouble because he failed to send a bunch of qualifying offers to a number of key RFA's which effectively tied his hands in negotiations such that he had to overpay significantly to keep them. Even still its only taken Stan Bowmen a couple of years to right the ship and they are back to being amongst the front runners for the cup. I would say that Chicago did take a measured approach if you look their key players arrived at different times and were developed differently. Only Toews and Kane really jumped in early. The other key players took medium and long term paths.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

But it doesn't mean that the rest of us are wrong because we have different beliefs about this then you.

And he's well within his rights to argue that point...as misguided as it may be

Honestly I am not sure if Scheifele will be ready by next season...but I do believe he has more than earned a real chance to earn that spot, a chance he has yet to receive so far, IMO...

 

[Jet]

But it doesn't mean that the rest of us are wrong because we have different beliefs about this then you.

It does to me , that's why we are on different sides.

 

[surixon]

I know people are sour about the Red Wings comparison. I probably shouldn't have used it. They do take their time with their prospects and I truly believe giving players who are less 'blue chip' more time to get better in true development leagues make them better players when they get to the NHL. It also allows the Red Wings to keep winning on the ice cause they don't have to teach on the job.

As for your Senators comparison, obviously they have drafted exceptionally well and we didn't know it until really this year when their 'fluke' season of last year was disproven. Even through injury the team keeps rolling along. Part of that is the way that Binghamton and Ottawa mirror each other in organizational systems and methods of play.

- Karlsson: Let me know when the Jets have a Karlsson in the system that we are holding back, then we can talk.

- Wiercioch: Are you talking about the same guy who cleared waivers just before the trade deadline? Not a good example. His modest success more to do with my first point about Binghamton and Ottawa.

I think where the real disconnect is happening between the two sides here is that the Jets prospects just aren't either as mature, or as 'blue chip' as the other players who perform well off the bat on an NHL roster elsewhere.

So, if you can forgive my Red Wings 'mantra', the philosophy is sound.

I don't think the philosophy is unsound for long-term projects but I am just a little tired of them being held to the gold standard when imo there are better organizations out there that this organization should be modeling.

The patient approach should be used for players like Lowery, who are late bloomers and need time to put it together. It served Redmond really well so it has its purpose. My point was that not every prospect needs all that seasoning.

As for Karalson, I'd put Trouba in his class (He's tracking very similarly to what Karalson was at the same point in development)

 

[Jet]

I don't think the philosophy is unsound for long-term projects but I am just a little tired of them being held to the gold standard when imo there are better organizations out there that this organization should be modeling.

The patient approach should be used for players like Lowery, who are late bloomers and need time to put it together. It served Redmond really well so it has its purpose. My point was that not every prospect needs all that seasoning.

As for Karalson, I'd put Trouba in his class (He's tracking very similarly to what Karalson was at the same point in development)

It's hard to say but it's likely that Trouba is in the same class as Karlsson. As you can see, the Jets were happy to sign him and we don't know what there plans for him will be.

Maybe he's on the opening day roster 2013 and he works himself into the top for a la Karlsson. I bet it's up to Jacob to play himself there. I don't think Noel or Chevy would be crazy enough to hold him back if he shows he can do it.

 

[sully1410]

It does to me , that's why we are on different sides.

That's pretty ignorant. I'm not arguing that certain prospects need
more time in juniors, because some of them do...others do not. If the circumstances were different...I could very well agree with you. I don't believe the mantra that every single prospect needs excess seasoning time.

Some do, others don't. You seem to believe that all do, and that is mistaken.

In this case...Scheifele should not have been sent back down based on what the organization had to say about him. Every other aspect of his game was ready, they just didnt think he was strong enough...something can be done on Winnipeg. Playing in a tougher league would do loads for this level of development. It's human nature to try elevate your game when your facing tougher odds.

Every reason you have stated to me about how Scheifele is not ready does not apply. He needed work on his strength...that's it.

The fact also remains that he has to be given a real opportunity to show this club that he has what it takes. You don't give a projected top six fwd energy minutes. It makes no sense. They should have been giving him some top six time, some time on the third line, some pp time and some PK time.

 

[allan5oh]

Every reason you have stated to me about how Scheifele is not ready does not apply. He needed work on his strength...that's it.

I think part of it was fate. He got really sick around the world juniors, and lost all the weight he worked hard to gain.

 

[Huffer]

Great discussion here. I'm not going to wade in here too much with a long post. I like Chevy's comment about playing a guy when they think he's ready.

To me that means the Jets are not going to treat every prospect the same way like some sort of blueprint. Not everyone is going to go back to juniors / NCAA / Europe for 2 years after being drafted and then spend time in the AHL. Everyone is going to be evaluated as individuals, as I think it should be.

 

[ps241]

I guess I see that point...but they sat him for alot of the games they lost anyways...so it's not like playing Mark would have changed anything.

Yea I agree sully.......the way Scheif was deployed reaked of a group that had made up their mind before the puck dropped.....felt like a bit of a charade. perhaps they saw enough in practice to make up their minds? In a perfect world I would have liked Mark to get some time in the AHL this past season but the rules kept that from happening.

I don't think this is a one size fits all approach though because TNSE pressed pretty hard to get Trouba to leave collage and turn pro so I think each guy will have his own path.

 

[TCsmyth]

Sure you can learn from that, but I have a hard time believing he's going to become a better player playing with 16-17yr olds then he will playing with Men. I'll repeat what I said when he was sent down, if he was going to the AHL...I really wouldn't care, but he's above the OHL.

And what you say is great and all, but they didn't send him down to learn the game or develop his character, his offense or Leadership...they sent him down because thy didnt think he was strong enough to be in bigs quite yet. Chevy's words were that you can't rush physical development...which is true....but you can definitely help it along given the right circumstances. I think it would have been better for him to have those facilities open to him. Right now....he doesn't.

It just comes back around...where so you think is the best place develop strength. A professional team with pro level equipment and facilities....or an amateur team with amateur level facilities.

I disagree. I think the kid needs to play lots of minutes. The facilities here don't make you grow..that takes time. Strength and weight gains are made in the off season, not during. He will be on a program wherever he is, and they are in constant contact with him. You send him back because you want him to play lots of hockey while he grows into his frame.

 

[Jet]

That's pretty ignorant. I'm not arguing that certain prospects need
more time in juniors, because some of them do...others do not. If the circumstances were different...I could very well agree with you. I don't believe the mantra that every single prospect needs excess seasoning time.

Some do, others don't. You seem to believe that all do, and that is mistaken.

In this case...Scheifele should not have been sent back down based on what the organization had to say about him. Every other aspect of his game was ready, they just didnt think he was strong enough...something can be done on Winnipeg. Playing in a tougher league would do loads for this level of development. It's human nature to try elevate your game when your facing tougher odds.

Every reason you have stated to me about how Scheifele is not ready does not apply. He needed work on his strength...that's it.

The fact also remains that he has to be given a real opportunity to show this club that he has what it takes. You don't give a projected top six fwd energy minutes. It makes no sense. They should have been giving him some top six time, some time on the third line, some pp time and some PK time.

Call my opinion ignorant all you want. When it comes to Scheifele specifically, I think the org made the 100% right call. If it were up to me, with the shortened season and lack of preseason and short TC I wouldn't have even had him up here for a second. You could see in the World Juniors that Scheifele was not ready to play in the NHL. I understand why the organization DID bring him here. It was to 'dangle a carrot' and show that we value him. Meanwhile people rag on the Jets for mistreating him, when in fact, they went out of their way to show the player they consider him to be a very important player in the future of this team.

It's all about perspective.

PS just because I think you are wrong about this does not mean I think you are stupid or ignorant. It's all opinion.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Call my opinion ignorant all you want. When it comes to Scheifele specifically, I think the org made the 100% right call. If it were up to me, with the shortened season and lack of preseason and short TC I wouldn't have even had him up here for a second. You could see in the World Juniors that Scheifele was not ready to play in the NHL. I understand why the organization DID bring him here. It was to 'dangle a carrot' and show that we value him. Meanwhile people rag on the Jets for mistreating him, when in fact, they went out of their way to show the player they consider him to be a very important player in the future of this team.

It's all about perspective.

PS just because I think you are wrong about this does not mean I think you are stupid or ignorant. It's all opinion.

Could you tell Galchenyuk was ready for NHL in WJC? Could you tell Nugent-Hopkins would struggle immensely this season with just 3 goals?

C'mon. That tournament is so vastly overrated. You really can't "tell" much from it. The WJC is a junior tournament, not at all comparable to the NHL.

I am not "ragging" on the organization for mistreating him. I just feel Noel has not properly given him a chance in the NHL. Given a real chance the results may have been different.

 

[ps241]

Hey guys it could be worse we could have traded away Trouba for Erat at the trade deadline and then our owner could have tried to keep it squashed until he broke it on his blog

 

[puck stoppa]

I really think Schief will put on 6-8 lbs in the offseason and will make the team right out of camp next year, he will be either #2 or 3 centre depending on Oli. I have this feeling that Trouba will spend more time in the AHL next year than Schief but both will be regulars by the end of the year. Scheif is a great prospect, his work ethic and attitude will help him get better and all this balance/weak on feet stuff will resolve itself shortly.

 

[garret9]

I'm not saying it's done intentionally....I'm just saying that they're doing it wrong.

I don't think that Scheifele stood to gain a single thing by going back to junior. I also don't think that Noel and Chevy gave him the best chance to succeed with giving him crap minutes, in an area where he wasn't going to be effective.

I hear what Chevy says about wantig him to be stronger on his feet and just stronger in general...who do you think has better assets to make that happen?

The Winnipeg Jets...the NHL team, worth about 170million dollars. a franchise whos business is winning the Stanley Cup. Or the Barrie Colts. The OHL team, worth a bit less then 170mill.

If his strength is an issue...why not put him in the best possible situation to fix that issue?

That's just me.

I honestly though Scheifele got a "fairer" shot than many state. I think he was in the too-good-for-CHL and not-good-enough-for-NHL-yet but can't-go-to-AHL-due-to-stupid-agreement black hole zone. It's not that uncommon.

With the line-mates argument, his 5v5 line-mates in order were:
Burmistrov 18:30
Ponikarovsky 14:55
Slater 13:53
Thorburn 11:12
Ladd 6:31
Little 6:27
Wright 4:43
Jokinen 3:45
Kane 2:48
Antropov 1:45
Wheeler 0:21
That's about 16.5 mins with a top6 quality, 39.5 with a 3rd liner (NOT checking line 3rd line, but sheltered scoring 3rd line), and 30 min in defensive-zone energy line.


Noel was sheltering him and pushing him offensively, even when he was on the same line as Slater-Thorburn.
Slater-Thorburn get used mostly in the D-zone and at the time were around 10-20% OZS, but Scheifele as their line-mate was around 50%.

Scheifele just wasn't ready to push for the team, especially as a winger. To be a centre he had to be better then 3 of Little, Antropov, Jokinen, Burmistrov and Wellwood. IMO he need one more offseason of strength training and should have been in the AHL last season, but you can't change the agreement unfortunately. That's what I had suspected would happen before the season started too.

I don't think Scheifele will be seeing much if any of the AHL next season though.

 

[Jet]

Could you tell Galchenyuk was ready for NHL in WJC? Could you tell Nugent-Hopkins would struggle immensely this season with just 3 goals?

C'mon. That tournament is so vastly overrated. You really can't "tell" much from it. The WJC is a junior tournament, not at all comparable to the NHL.

I am not "ragging" on the organization for mistreating him. I just feel Noel has not properly given him a chance in the NHL. Given a real chance the results may have been different.

With the way he was skating and was getting knocked down so easily yes, I could tell he wasn't NHL ready. I wasn't going by stats, I was watching him play and he did not play like a guy who was an NHL top 6 forward.

Good grief if he wasn't going to be up here playing top 6 then why would he be here? People would just **** on Noel for playing him with scrubs.

 

[Waldo]

I honestly though Scheifele got a "fairer" shot than many state. I think he was in the too-good-for-CHL and not-good-enough-for-NHL-yet but can't-go-to-AHL-due-to-stupid-agreement black hole zone. It's not that uncommon.

Scheifele just wasn't ready to push for the team, especially as a winger. To be a centre he had to be better then 3 of Little, Antropov, Jokinen, Burmistrov and Wellwood. IMO he need one more offseason of strength training and should have been in the AHL last season, but you can't change the agreement unfortunately. That's what I had suspected would happen before the season started too.

I don't think Scheifele will be seeing much if any of the AHL next season though.

And now that it's too late, we find that Antro, Wellwood, Jokinen were almost total failures. Burmistrov hasn't developed yet either. Would Scheifele been ready by now to give us a decent 2 line? Maybe yes or maybe no but we do now know how incredibly weak we are at centre. It may have cost us a playoff spot.

 

[SCP Guy]

And now that it's too late, we find that Antro, Wellwood, Jokinen were almost total failures. Burmistrov hasn't developed yet either. Would Scheifele been ready by now to give us a decent 2 line? Maybe yes or maybe no but we do now know how incredibly weak we are at centre. It may have cost us a playoff spot.

Or we could have watched him clean the ice all year long like a human zamboni that could not stay up on his skates for an entire shift.....and wasted a full year of ELC.....we will never know for sure.

We just have to trust that Chevy and the coaching staff had a gut feeling he was not ready to play vs MEN in the NHL or AHL this year.

I just hope he is ready to play decent minutes in the NHL or top line and top power play minutes in the AHL worst case next season

 

[sully1410]

Call my opinion ignorant all you want. When it comes to Scheifele specifically, I think the org made the 100% right call. If it were up to me, with the shortened season and lack of preseason and short TC I wouldn't have even had him up here for a second. You could see in the World Juniors that Scheifele was not ready to play in the NHL. I understand why the organization DID bring him here. It was to 'dangle a carrot' and show that we value him. Meanwhile people rag on the Jets for mistreating him, when in fact, they went out of their way to show the player they consider him to be a very important player in the future of this team.

It's all about perspective.

PS just because I think you are wrong about this does not mean I think you are stupid or ignorant. It's all opinion.

I never said you were stupid or ignorant...just your opinion was.

And it is ignorant because you are failing to see this argument from any other POV other then your own.

Your only argument, so far, has been that Scheifele gets knocked around a lot and falls on his ass. Big Deal. So does Wheeler. Maybe we should send him back to juniors too?

I dont think you can look at the development of young players with blinders on and say...nope...they all need more development time. I think you need to look at it by a case by case basis.

I'm not so much disgareeing with you that Scheifele wasnt ready for the NHL, his skating is not good enough thats for sure, I just disagree with sending him down. Even if you kept him up as a utility fwd, or slotted him into the top six from time to time...it was plain to see that he was making good decisions and generating offense at a pro level. Skating can be worked on with Barb Underhill.

I would have preffered for him to go to the AHL, and fully believe that every team should have an exemption.


BTW, i do respect your opinion, and really always have. i just think that you need to keep an open mind when it comes to development.

 

[sully1410]

With the way he was skating and was getting knocked down so easily yes, I could tell he wasn't NHL ready. I wasn't going by stats, I was watching him play and he did not play like a guy who was an NHL top 6 forward.

Good grief if he wasn't going to be up here playing top 6 then why would he be here? People would just **** on Noel for playing him with scrubs.

I personally would have slotted him in the top nine, much like Vancouver has done in the past with Kesler and Sedin.

 

[KingBogo]

Great discussion here. I'm not going to wade in here too much with a long post. I like Chevy's comment about playing a guy when they think he's ready.

To me that means the Jets are not going to treat every prospect the same way like some sort of blueprint. Not everyone is going to go back to juniors / NCAA / Europe for 2 years after being drafted and then spend time in the AHL. Everyone is going to be evaluated as individuals, as I think it should be.

I agree with this. Some guys are a lot closer at 18-19 than others. You evaluate each player on their own merits. You don't rush, but you don't needlessly hold back on principal. I think Scheifele will be on the team coming out of camp. He is pretty close and I think there will be a fair amount of turnover this summer. I also wouldn't be surprised if Trouba spent more time with the big club than on the rock. Though chances are he will start the season there.

 

[StronGeer]

I agree with this. Some guys are a lot closer at 18-19 than others. You evaluate each player on their own merits. You don't rush, but you don't needlessly hold back on principal. I think Scheifele will be on the team coming out of camp. He is pretty close and I think there will be a fair amount of turnover this summer. I also wouldn't be surprised if Trouba spent more time with the big club than on the rock. Though chances are he will start the season there.

I think his frame and weight will also help him transition easier. He is huge and will likely get bigger. I'd look for him to be on the bottom pairing with some PP time next year. Kind of like what was tried with the Postman

 

[Positive]

And now that it's too late, we find that Antro, Wellwood, Jokinen were almost total failures. Burmistrov hasn't developed yet either. Would Scheifele been ready by now to give us a decent 2 line? Maybe yes or maybe no but we do now know how incredibly weak we are at centre. It may have cost us a playoff spot.

We don't know if he would have been better or worse.

As a GM you try to make your best call at the time. We're enamored of our first round pick here, but a GM in this shortened-season situation would tend to go more by history and demonstrated performance, instead of hunches and hopes. When the time came to make the decision, Scheif was not better than any of these guys.

Did Antro, Welly, Joker, and Burmi disappoint as the season wore on? Sure. But let's play GM at the beginning of the season...you have a 61 pt guy (Olli) who is a former all-star. A 47-pt guy (Wellwood), a 41-pt guy (Antro) and a 28-pt guy (Burmi) with upside. You also have 46-point Bryan Little. On paper, center doesn't look that weak. Heck it actually looks good! You have a shortened 3-month season. I think the call appears pretty easy - you put faith in your three vets, your new-signing, and the Russian kid with upside, rather than blow a year on the new guy who has had 1 assist in 11 NHL games and who needs time to develop. A lot has been said about whether the NHL is a 'development' league or not, etc....IMHO when it's this short, it's not.

 

[Flair Hay]

Scheifele on the third line does sound great sully, for Scheifele's development anyway.

But the more we have to shelter the third line means the more time the first and second lines have to spend against the others' best.

I see the same thing that a few others did. Not that he was a bad pick, but that he needed more time until he was ready.

He's probably got another 400-500 mins of game time in this season alone based on what he would have played in Winnipeg.

The better position he is in as a player to gain Noel's trust when he starts out the better his chance at achieving his potential IMO.

I'm hopeful for him, but he's going to be playing against 2 way beasts like Toews, Koivu, Benn...lets just hope for steady improvement.