Confirmed with Link: Jets/Buffalo Blockbuster! part II (Kane and Bogo)

[Hunter368]

True, but that does not diminish the current value of said assets. You could package our extra first round pick, along with Lemieux and probably get a healthy return today.

For me, it does not matter what Kane does over in Buffalo. His production came at a cost of team chemistry and I believe this to be a character flaw with Kane, one that isn't going away any time soon.

But if we retain Stafford on a palatable deal, and any one of Armia, Lemieux or the extra 1st pan out to becoming a top 6 forward for us, then IMO we win the deal easily.

I would agree with that mostly. Imo it partly depends on Kane play, but we can agree to disagree on that small part.

I believe we have to take all factors into consideration before evaluating a trade. If Kane scores 35-40 goals each season for the next few years and our prospects are a bust we got hosed (not saying this will happen of course).

Chevy has a good history of drafting so I'm sure it will turn out in our favor in the long run.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Only comment I have on this, is that Myers was a calder winner while Bogo and Kane both have had lots of potential that they never realized. I believe that Myers is the best player in the trade by far. I also think that he is going to put distance between his ability and Bogo/Kane, now that he's in Winnipeg, of course that part still remains to be seen, but that's what I see.

I also believe that moving Kane and Bogo were additions by subtraction from a team perspective.

 

[garret9]

Only comment I have on this, is that Myers was a calder winner while Bogo and Kane both have had lots of potential that they never realized. I believe that Myers is the best player in the trade by far. I also think that he is going to put distance between his ability and Bogo/Kane, now that he's in Winnipeg, of course that part still remains to be seen, but that's what I see.

I also believe that moving Kane and Bogo were additions by subtraction from a team perspective.

http://jetsnation.ca/2015/6/16/winnipeg-jets-by-the-numbers-tyler-myers-2014-2015

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You define it very oddly. Short term? Who cares about getting swept if it means losing a 30 goal guy (Bogo/Myers is a wash). We need those prospects/pick to turn out or we lost big time. Time will tell.

Hmmm, a very oddly crafted response, full of false equivalencies and conclusions:
1)The Jets organization, players and most of us cared deeply that the Jets made the playoffs, even if they got swept.
2)Myers is better, cheaper and more durable than Bogo.
3)Even if the prospects/picks don't all work out, getting the best player in the trade, securing a PO position, likely securing Stafford for the next few years, for the price of losing a disruptive (albeit talented) force who would have left the nanosecond he was a UFA, is not a "big time loss". Most objective people would describe the trade as an inspired move under difficult circumstances.

My memory must be failing me....tell us again what you think of Chevy as a GM, of his trading history and general, and then whether you think that bias may have affected your view of this trade.

1)Making the POs was a win. Too bad we got swept.
2)Myers is cheaper and maybe/possibly/probably more durable. Better remains to be seen.
3)Getting the best player in the trade is not a given at this point either. Just too soon to say. The value of getting Stafford also remains to be seen. a)He is not signed yet. We don't know what the contract will look like. b)There are big questions about his play.

We do need to get something out of the pick/prospects. Myers is not the taller Bobby Orr and Stafford would have been available to us July 1 anyway. If he signs with us before July 1 we can credit the trade for getting him for us. Lets see how Myers is doing 30-40 games in. Then lets see what we get out of the pick/prospects.

 

[jetman]

My take on the trade...

If it was Myers for Bogosian, we won. Similar level of player but cheaper.

Rest of the year Stafford for rest of the year Kane. Kane was out for the season so easy win for us.

3 Extra years of Kane, for Armia, Lemieux, and 25th. Too many unknowns to judge now. If one of the three become NHL regulars (top 9 F, or top 4 D) I'll say that its even. If 2+ we win. Less we lose.

Considering that Kane wasn't going to be playing with us again. Good Trade. Irrespective of how the prospects turn out. We got enough value already to make it close, and a good enough chance to come out on top with the prospects.

 

[garret9]

My take on the trade...

If it was Myers for Bogosian, we won. Similar level of player but cheaper.

Rest of the year Stafford for rest of the year Kane. Kane was out for the season so easy win for us.

3 Extra years of Kane, for Armia, Lemieux, and 25th. Too many unknowns to judge now. If one of the three become NHL regulars (top 9 F, or top 4 D) I'll say that its even. If 2+ we win. Less we lose.

Considering that Kane wasn't going to be playing with us again. Good Trade. Irrespective of how the prospects turn out. We got enough value already to make it close, and a good enough chance to come out on top with the prospects.

This is similar to my views.

 

[Hunter368]

1)Making the POs was a win. Too bad we got swept.
2)Myers is cheaper and maybe/possibly/probably more durable. Better remains to be seen.
3)Getting the best player in the trade is not a given at this point either. Just too soon to say. The value of getting Stafford also remains to be seen. a)He is not signed yet. We don't know what the contract will look like. b)There are big questions about his play.

We do need to get something out of the pick/prospects. Myers is not the taller Bobby Orr and Stafford would have been available to us July 1 anyway. If he signs with us before July 1 we can credit the trade for getting him for us. Lets see how Myers is doing 30-40 games in. Then lets see what we get out of the pick/prospects.

Agreed, as I said it's too hard to claim a clear winner in this trade, might take a few years to determine. I like the trade, stated it the day of the trade and my posts are here to prove it.....but that doesn't mean we clearly won the trade. I'm happy with what we got, but wouldn't want to see a similar thing happen again....meaning trading a player(s) ata disadvantage.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed, as I said it's too hard to claim a clear winner in this trade, might take a few years to determine. I like the trade, stated it the day of the trade and my posts are here to prove it.....but that doesn't mean we clearly won the trade. I'm happy with what we got, but wouldn't want to see a similar thing happen again....meaning trading a player(s) ata disadvantage.

There are 2 things involved that shouldn't be judged together. 1)Is the way the Kane situation was handled. I think it became pretty clear that he should have been traded much sooner. His value peaked with his 30 goal season and had been dropping ever since. It hit bottom when he took himself out for the season. 2)Is the trade itself. Considering where Kane's value was at the time it looks pretty good. How often does a player who is out for the season get traded? The surprise addition of Bogo to the deal makes it harder to evaluate but I don't think it can be seen as Bogo for Myers or Kane for Myers. The 2 packages have to be seen as units. I like what we have seen of Myers so far. I have mixed feelings about Stafford but so far he is only a rental. Then there are the pick and prospects. None of that can be evaluated yet. The same applies to the other side. Bogo played well for Buffalo and apparently Sabres fans were happy with him so far. Kane hasn't even played for them yet. The whole thing can't be judged yet. No one piece can be judged yet.

 

[Hunter368]

Agreed Mort

 

[ps241]

My take on the trade...

If it was Myers for Bogosian, we won. Similar level of player but cheaper.

Rest of the year Stafford for rest of the year Kane. Kane was out for the season so easy win for us.

3 Extra years of Kane, for Armia, Lemieux, and 25th. Too many unknowns to judge now. If one of the three become NHL regulars (top 9 F, or top 4 D) I'll say that its even. If 2+ we win. Less we lose.

Considering that Kane wasn't going to be playing with us again. Good Trade. Irrespective of how the prospects turn out. We got enough value already to make it close, and a good enough chance to come out on top with the prospects.

Yea I think this about sums it up as far as I am concerned.

 

[garret9]

The one disagreement I have is on the "too many unknowns to judge now" train of thought.

When Chevy and the Jets made a trade with the Sabres, both teams did it with the opinion that they were getting the best expected value that they could (of course adjusting for situational stuff like Kane being unlikely a Jet in long run and team needs, etc.).

Waiting until players fully develop is judging based off of information that is unavailable at the time the decision is made. Hindsight is 20/20.

I guess you can say you can't see who wins the trade until after, but you should judge the trade prior.


An extreme example:

Say a 80% chance prospect is in a deal. That's as close to a for-sure thing that you get in prospects outside of first overall prospects. This is like a Dylan Strome or Mitch Marner. What if something happens, some unforeseen fall in development, and the prospect becomes one of those 2/10 that bust?

Now say a 7th round pick is thrown in a deal. This pick barely holds much value, but you end up getting a freak in development, a late bloomer no one foresaw. Tyler Johnson wasn't a very good prospect (relatively speaking) until after the CHL. He mostly developed from nothing into something in the AHL.

The second example becomes highly valuable in hindsight and the first does not. But, the expected value of these things if you were to repeat 999999999 times is completely different.

 

[mcpw]

^ this

Colorado trades 11th overall to Chicago for a mid-2nd and a mid-5th.
Awful trade.

Colorado trades Duncan Siemens to Chicago for Brandon Saad and Andrew Shaw.
Now how does that sound?

 

[JetsFan815]

Looking at the Kane part of the trade in hindsight of the draft, the trade doesn't look as good for us anymore. The value that Chevy got for Kane was probably the best he could have gotten for him at that point in time however I think we can all agree that he could have gotten much more for Kane had he been proactive and not waited until his hand was forced (presumably he was well aware of the Kane problems before they blew up and possibly Kane had even asked for a trade).

Even in this trade, I wish Chevy had acquired a 2nd round pick from the Sabres instead of Lemeiux. There were so many 1st round talent players available that we could have really benefitted our prospect pool. My understanding is that Chevy deliberately targetted Lemieux. I don't understand Chevy's fascination with him.

 

[StronGeer]

Looking at the Kane part of the trade in hindsight of the draft, the trade doesn't look as good for us anymore. The value that Chevy got for Kane was probably the best he could have gotten for him at that point in time however I think we can all agree that he could have gotten much more for Kane had he been proactive and not waited until his hand was forced (presumably he was well aware of the Kane problems before they blew up and possibly Kane had even asked for a trade).

Even in this trade, I wish Chevy had acquired a 2nd round pick from the Sabres instead of Lemeiux. There were so many 1st round talent players available that we could have really benefitted our prospect pool. My understanding is that Chevy deliberately targetted Lemieux. I don't understand Chevy's fascination with him.

I wasn't aware the book was written on Rosolovic, Armia, and Lemieux.

It's easy to say that the trade favours them now since we didn't make a playoff run with Stafford and he's a UFA (although still may resign). No one will know the real winner for a while yet.

 

[JetsFan815]

I wasn't aware the book was written on Rosolovic, Armia, and Lemieux.

It's easy to say that the trade favours them now since we didn't make a playoff run with Stafford and he's a UFA (although still may resign). No one will know the real winner for a while yet.

I am comparing with what the Sabres paid for O'Reilly who has similar stats to Kane and is a pending UFA. I am not calling Rosolovic, Armia, and Lemieux busts. Just saying that I would be much happier having Zadarov, Compher, Grigorenko and Jeremy Roy+ in our system

 

[Jeti]

I am comparing with what the Sabres paid for O'Reilly who has similar stats to Kane and is a pending UFA. I am not calling Rosolovic, Armia, and Lemieux busts. Just saying that I would be much happier having Zadarov, Compher, Grigorenko and Jeremy Roy+ in our system

I don't think Zadorov was necessarily available at the time of the Kane trade. He was only available due to attitude issues and maybe they were still giving him another chance at the time of the Kane deal. I'd have loved to have gotten Zadorov though - he was who I wanted the Jets to take instead of Morrissey. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets didn't want to take a player with ego issues in that deal though.

Debating whether Kane was worth more than O'Reilly is tricky. Sure, O'Reilly is a year from UFA but he's also a much better player, he's injured far less and the Avs had a year to trade him where the Jets were risking their playoff spot if they didn't get something for Kane and resolve that situation ASAP. It's also impossible to separate what part of the return was from Kane and what was from Bogo - IMO I don't think it was Myers for Bogo and Kane for everything else as many, including myself, first thought.

 

[Sweech]

I am comparing with what the Sabres paid for O'Reilly who has similar stats to Kane and is a pending UFA. I am not calling Rosolovic, Armia, and Lemieux busts. Just saying that I would be much happier having Zadarov, Compher, Grigorenko and Jeremy Roy+ in our system

"character" issues have to be taken in though.

Zadorov has had problems apparently with nutrition, work outs, and just overall physique. He'd get slaughtered by Maurice AND he allegedly misses meetings and practices?! We know how that goes down on this team.

Grigorenko, I rate Armia higher and rumour is he could go back to Russia, but again I like Armia more so that's a big sticking point.

Overall I rate Stafford, Armia, Lemiuex and Roslovic over Zadorov, Compher, Grigorenko and Roy. Especially as Stafford was pretty crucial to us making the playoffs, which was (and will be) hugely important to us.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Wouldn't have made playoffs without trade.

 

[puck stoppa]

"character" issues have to be taken in though.

Zadorov has had problems apparently with nutrition, work outs, and just overall physique. He'd get slaughtered by Maurice AND he allegedly misses meetings and practices?! We know how that goes down on this team.

Grigorenko, I rate Armia higher and rumour is he could go back to Russia, but again I like Armia more so that's a big sticking point.

Overall I rate Stafford, Armia, Lemiuex and Roslovic over Zadorov, Compher, Grigorenko and Roy. Especially as Stafford was pretty crucial to us making the playoffs, which was (and will be) hugely important to us.

I like reading your posts.....but it could be cause of your avatar

 

[scelaton]

I am comparing with what the Sabres paid for O'Reilly who has similar stats to Kane and is a pending UFA. I am not calling Rosolovic, Armia, and Lemieux busts. Just saying that I would be much happier having Zadarov, Compher, Grigorenko and Jeremy Roy+ in our system

Sweech is right.
There was zero chance of Chevy accepting Zadarov or Grogorenko in trade. The two of them personify the heartache caused by Burmi and Chevy has no intention of ever repeating that.
Additionally, Murray apparently has had a "near-obsession" with ROR who, frankly, is a much smarter and better two-way player than Kane.

http://tipofthetower.com/2015/02/24/buffalo-sabres-trade-rumors-will-nikita-zadorov-moved/
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/GARTHS-CORNER/Grigorenko-To-Russia-With-Love/6/69254

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Sweech is right.
There was zero chance of Chevy accepting Zadarov or Grogorenko in trade. The two of them personify the heartache caused by Burmi and Chevy has no intention of ever repeating that.
Additionally, Murray apparently has had a "near-obsession" with ROR who, frankly, is a much smarter and better two-way player than Kane.

http://tipofthetower.com/2015/02/24/buffalo-sabres-trade-rumors-will-nikita-zadorov-moved/
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/GARTHS-CORNER/Grigorenko-To-Russia-With-Love/6/69254

I think Buffalo offered Grigorenko and Chevy pushed for Armia.

I also think that if Buffalo included their 2nd round pick (31) instead of Lemieux......it would have been better for the Jets ( deeper draft same position)

we would have had 17,25,31 and 47 in the 1st 2 rounds.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Buffalo offered Grigorenko and Chevy pushed for Armia.

I also think that if Buffalo included their 2nd round pick (31) instead of Lemieux......it would have been better for the Jets ( deeper draft same position)

we would have had 17,25,31 and 47 in the 1st 2 rounds.

Agree with that suggestion but for all we know Buffalo offered that and Chevy asked for Lemieux instead.

Looking at the ROR trade makes me feel better about the Kane trade not worse. We got comparable value and possibly fewer question marks or less serious at least. ROR>Kane. Their add in was McGinn and ours was Bogo so we added more but we got Myers. Added all up and we did better than Col.

I'm still not convinced we 'won' that trade. We won't know for another couple of years. But we did OK.

 

[Hollywood3]

I don't mind knowing that Bogo will be delivering pizzas in Buffalo fom now on.

Kane had to go.

Myers is better than Bogo by far.

Kane may be better than Stafford, depending on his injury status.

The extras deeply favour the Jets.

 

[bustamente]

If Armia, Lemieux, and Roslovic all make the jets in the next 2 to 4 years and contribute to the success of the team then the trade should be considered a steal for the Jets

 

[Whileee]

Just wanted to say that based only on an up-close look at two development camp workouts, Lemieux looks like he has the makings of a pro.