Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman IV - even more nothing

[RoccoF14]

IF they give him 9.5 for 8 at the end of the deal it will look great. The cap will continue to rise, the league is talking about more expansion and Utah should be a better market than Arizona. IF the cap tops 110m in 4 years he is less than a 10% cap hit which is reasonable for an all star goalie. 9.5 right now is high, it won't be in a few years.

Not if he regresses, it won't. Or even if he maintains his current form.

People are operating under the assumption that young goalies just continue to get better and better. That's not always the case. Jordan Binnington, Devan Dubnyk, Carter Hart (before the allegations), Jake Oettinger etc.

Not saying Swayman will regress. But its not out of the question and there's definitely risk with a long term, high cap deal. Wanna use a comp? Use Thatcher Demko and give him 5yrs adjusted up for inflation.

 

[RoccoF14]

Ok find me a current NHL goalie that posted similar numbers to what Swayman did through his age 25 season

Thatcher Demko, on some crap Vancouver teams. SV% is almost identical. GAA is worse, but he was on a worse team, unlike Swayman who played on a record setting 2022-23 team.

 

[PB37]

Ok find me a current NHL goalie that posted similar numbers to what Swayman did through his age 25 season

@Eddie Munson had a great write up on this and the player was Juuse Saros.

 

[RoccoF14]

@Eddie Munson had a great write up on this and the player was Juuse Saros.

That's not a bad one either.

 

[Hookslide]

All these issues are self inflicted by Don Sweeney.

Couldn't give Swayman a proper 2nd contract because of cap mistakes, so now wants a re-do and Swayman isn't budging. Good on Sway.

Or maybe good by Sway

Swayman is coming off a .933 SV% in 12 games and did everything he could to get this team past Florida. Maybe if the offense doesn't get held to 2 or less goals in 5 of their 6 games, they actually get past Florida. Was Swayman supposed to score goals and stop them?

Why does Rask 22 games in that one playoff run matter more than his 3 years of play leading up to that playoff series?

You want to see a crazy stat...

Goals Save Above Expected
Rask (2013 Playoffs) - 22GP / 16.1 GSAE
Sway (2024 Playoffs) - 12GP / 13.3 GSAE

Swayman in nearly half as many games had nearly the same GSAE as Rask did during is 2013 cup run.

Well maybe they need to take some of that goaltending money and get some goal scoring.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

I read your posts, that funny enough for me.

There you go!

 

[SwayHeyKid]

@Eddie Munson had a great write up on this and the player was Juuse Saros.

So would you rather go 4 years now and 8 years later instead of 8 years now?

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

I know the stats. I’m a big fan of Sway and have been on board with an 8x$8M contract all along.

Rask started 34 out of 48 games that season as well. Very clearly the number 1.

Why did Gross leak that they’re looking for the McAvoy contract and not the Rask contract?

Do we know that it's only been Gross leaking the negotiation/offer details so far?

I would have guessed the rumored $10M/yr and the McAvoy contract asks would have been leaked by the Bruins. And likewise would have assumed the 4yr $6.25M/yr or the 8yr "in the sixes" offers would have been leaked by Gross.

 

[PB37]

So would you rather go 4 years now and 8 years later instead of 8 years now?

Personally, 8. I wouldn't be upset at 4 though.

 

[mjhfb]

My wildest theory, of which there is literally no proof, is that Sweeney and the Bruins brought up the Game 7 loss to Florida as a reason for Swayman not to win his arbitration hearing and that rightfully pissed him off considering the circumstances.

Most of the rational options have been presented several times. We only have two options left, wait and see, or wildly speculate to keep it interesting. That wild one is as good as any.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Do we know that it's only been Gross leaking the negotiation/offer details so far?

I would have guessed the rumored $10M/yr and the McAvoy contract asks would have been leaked by the Bruins. And likewise would have assumed the 4yr $6.25M/yr or the 8yr "in the sixes" offers would have been leaked by Gross.

We don’t know of course but it’s not hard to figure out, other than Keefe who is never right and needed eyeballs for his new gig. Forget the $10M it’s the McAvoy contract that came from Gross for sure. Just like it’s not hard to guess at where Fluto’s angle came from today.

 

[RoccoF14]

So would you rather go 4 years now and 8 years later instead of 8 years now?

I'd rather go 4yrs now and re-asses based on how this team is performing, how Swayman is performing, what our cap situation is at that time, and what other goaltending options there are at that time (both internally and in free agency).

 

[EverettMike]

Be pretty funny if Swayman's camp told the Bruins they'll do two years at an AAV of 6. How could they turn that down, but at the same time how could they accept it?

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Be pretty funny if Swayman's camp told the Bruins they'll do two years at an AAV of 6. How could they turn that down, but at the same time how could they accept it?

They don't have the nuts to offer it

 

[goldenblack]

Still think this will be fine.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

They don't have the nuts to offer it

Offering two years wouldn't take balls, it would take a complete lack of intelligence and understanding of how things work.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Offering two years wouldn't take balls, it would take a complete lack of intelligence and understanding of how things work.

I mean they don't think he is worth a long term deal at big money, it's clear, They want to buy 2 years of UFA for chump change.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I mean they don't think he is worth a long term deal at big money, it's clear, They want to buy 2 years of UFA for chump change.

That has nothing to do with having the "nuts" to offer a two year deal. That's a fireable offense in and of itself.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Still think this will be fine.

usually is, let's hope. Damper on the start of camp.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

That has nothing to do with having the "nuts" to offer a two year deal. That's a fireable offense in and of itself.

then trade him. Makes zero sense to want to go 4 years then 8 years after, not even counting the fact 4 is ridiculous at this point for Swayman to take. Do 8 now. You won't have those final garbage years like they will with Lindholm and Lindholm. I know you are fully in favor of 8/64 and to me that would get it done IMO

 

[RiverbottomChuck]

Positive vibes?

 

[pgm16]

Gonna be 8 x 8.75 - 9.25

 

[Gee Wally]

Since a simple ask for civility doesnt seem to sink in it looks like Swayman may be back before some of you if you dont get a grip.

 

[ON3M4N]

I mean Sorokin just signed for 8x$8.25. Obviously a few years older. But more accomplished.

Fair, but I said find me a goalie who has similar numbers through the same age. Sorokin is 3yrs older than Swayman.

Thatcher Demko, on some crap Vancouver teams. SV% is almost identical. GAA is worse, but he was on a worse team, unlike Swayman who played on a record setting 2022-23 team.

Demko through age 25
72GP / 2.93 GAA / .911 SV% / 1 SO

Swayman through age 25
132GP / 2.34 GAA / .919 SV% / 12 SO

They don't seem close in numbers at all

 

[UncleRico]

Rask had just put up a .940 in 22 playoff games on the way to the Stanley Cup Final. He signed his $7M contract on July 10, 2013. Walk me through how that is a good comp for Swayman.


Because they are? Like I said, why should the Bruins be first?

So do you blame swayman for the bruins not playing 22 playoff games?

I would blame just about everyone else besides him for that.