Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman II - still waiting

[SwayHeyKid]

We may have kept the wrong goalie...

If you enjoy outdoor activities after first round exits, then yes I would agree.

 

[UncleRico]

Swayman faced 31 shots per game against in last year's playoffs.

Rask faced 31 shots per game against in the 2019 playoffs.

Literally the same.

I’m seeing swayman almost having 2 more shots per game against according to natural stat trick.

Regardless all shots aren’t the same either.

And Tuukka got paid well before that performance. Tuukka actually got paid after a very similar resume to what swayman has now

 

[LSCII]

In the top 100 of AAV for this coming year, there are 63 forwards, 32 D, and 5 goalies. There is no "regardless of position". What Mackinnon or Panarin or Matthews get paid has absolutely nothing to do with what goalies are paid, other that they're governed by the same CBA (not sure why that needs to be said, but following along with you). Apparently there's no convincing you that comps don't have anything to do with pay (despite the fact that you used your own comps in the paragraph above), but even Swayman himself said he can't screw up the market for the next group of goalies coming behind him. Why would he say that?

You're missing the entire f***ing point man. It doesn't matter because they're not in arbitration. All of their comps are irrelevant. It's literally nonsense.

You pick a comp for Sway and then I will. Go ahead. We'll play it out. You can be Sweeney and I'll be Swayman's agent.

 

[Absurdity]

It makes me think they'd be insane to accept that package for Swayman.

If all other factors are ignored, it's pretty good value. Swayman has more value to the Bruins though, and everything points to the Bruins committing to Swayman long-term. They wouldn't have traded Ullmark if they didn't want to.

It's a nice offer but given their current roster I don't see how giving up a core player for only picks would make sense. Sure they can flip those picks, but you better get a top 6C back if you move on from him

Yup, the Bruins would have to add another really good roster player to make up for the loss. Even if the Bruins add a top 6C, there are two giant question marks at goalie with Korpisalo and Bussi.

 

[dugg133]

You're missing the entire f***ing point man. It doesn't matter because they're not in arbitration. All of their comps are irrelevant. It's literally nonsense.

You pick a comp for Sway and then I will. Go ahead. We'll play it out. You can be Sweeney and I'll be Swayman's agent.

You aren't allowed to use comps during arb IIRC, it's against the rules to use another players salary as a talking point. But during normal contract negotiations they absolutely are used, Swayman even said that he knows what his comps are during that pod he did recently.

 

[BlackFrancis]

You aren't allowed to use comps during arb IIRC, it's against the rules to use another players salary as a talking point. But during normal contract negotiations they absolutely are used, Swayman even said that he knows what his comps are during that pod he did recently.

Only RFAs contracts count as arb comparables.

 

[LSCII]

You aren't allowed to use comps during arb IIRC, it's against the rules to use another players salary as a that he knows what his comps are during that pod he did recently.

No, comps are absolutely part of the arbitration process. But regardless. This isn't arbitration so let's move on.

Pick a comp, any comp. It's irrelevant because they have to NEGOTIATE. They're going to pick low comps and Swayman is going to pick high comps. Neither are worth a f***ing thing because it's all negotiating tactics and this isn't binding arbitration. That's been my point all along. They have to negotiate or move on. Them arguing about comps or Sway saying he knows what the comps are is meaningless because none of it matters and nobody is holding either part to it.

Get it? Nobody is deciding which party is right and what comps matter, because they don't. The parties have to negotiate. Simple as that.

 

[Hookslide]

I think the Bruins match that offer, but two 1st’s, one 2nd, and one 3rd round pick for a goaltender that hasn't played a full season yet makes you think.

Yeah it makes me think, I hope it happens.

 

[dugg133]

No, comps are absolutely part of the arbitration process. But regardless. This isn't arbitration so let's move on.

Pick a comp, any comp. It's irrelevant because they have to NEGOTIATE. They're going to pick low comps and Swayman is going to pick high comps. Neither are worth a f***ing thing because it's all negotiating tactics and this isn't binding arbitration. That's been my point all along. They have to negotiate or move on. Them arguing about comps or Sway saying he knows what the comps are is meaningless because none of it matters and nobody is holding either part to it.

Get it? Nobody is deciding which party is right and what comps matter, because they don't. The parties have to negotiate. Simple as that.

I don't really understand the point you're trying to make tbh. You're saying that comparables don't matter cause they negotiate to a middle ground after presenting them, but if the comparables are offering a starting point for negotiaitons then they clearly matter? Just feels like you're getting a full diaper over semantics.

Only RFAs contracts count as arb comparables.

you right, forgot about that part of it

 

[NDiesel]

You're missing the entire f***ing point man. It doesn't matter because they're not in arbitration. All of their comps are irrelevant. It's literally nonsense.

You pick a comp for Sway and then I will. Go ahead. We'll play it out. You can be Sweeney and I'll be Swayman's agent.

I believe all he's saying is they are going to use comps in negotiations at some point, most likely as a starting point.

Like you have to justify your ask in some way, one of the better ways to do that (IMO at least) is to look around the league and say "my stats are similar Bobrovsky so I should be paid at least this much" or on Sweeneys side he might say "Saros has better stats and experience we can't pay you more than him."

Obviously some additional negotiations occur outside of giving comps to bring them to a fair number.

Like if you're asking for a raise at your actual job, the first thing you do is find industry comparables to be a starting point for negotiations

 

[LSCII]

I don't really understand the point you're trying to make tbh. You're saying that comparables don't matter cause they negotiate to a middle ground after presenting them, but if the comparables are offering a starting point for negotiaitons then they clearly matter? Just feels like you're getting a full diaper over semantics.

I'm saying Boston knows what it wants to pay and Sway knows what he wants to earn. Each side pointing to another player's salary is arbitrary because it doesn't change anything in their process. They have to reach an agreement or not and that's done via conversation. Which at this point and with Swayman going public, doesn't sound like it's happening. If anything, it sounds like he wants out.

 

[PB37]

No, comps are absolutely part of the arbitration process. But regardless. This isn't arbitration so let's move on.

Pick a comp, any comp. It's irrelevant because they have to NEGOTIATE. They're going to pick low comps and Swayman is going to pick high comps. Neither are worth a f***ing thing because it's all negotiating tactics and this isn't binding arbitration. That's been my point all along. They have to negotiate or move on. Them arguing about comps or Sway saying he knows what the comps are is meaningless because none of it matters and nobody is holding either part to it.

Get it? Nobody is deciding which party is right and what comps matter, because they don't. The parties have to negotiate. Simple as that.

I tend to agree. It's a battle of opinions between the two sides and both sides will use facts and statistics to their advantage.

 

[Number8]

If a gm a traded a vezina winner for a 3m cap dump and a late 1st WITHOUT knowing if the guy they had could handle the load...

said GM needs to be fired immediately.

Exactly.

Part of the argument on Contract value is no doubt revolving around the question of "can he handle a full #1 goalie slate of games?".

The answer to that has to be a yes or a no. If yes, then pay the man. If no, then argue that he should be paid less.

BUT -- and this is directly tied to the excellent point you make -- if the answer is indeed no, then what on God's green earth led you to trade a Vezina winning goalie who obviously wanted to stay?

The Bruins traded Linus -- which no one can read but a vote that Swayman was their guy moving forward. You can't now say "yeah, but we don't know if he should get paid like a guy who can carry heavy load".

People can rag on Swayman all they want but this isn't his fault. He has a right to negotiate for what he thinks is fair. If he has the Bruins balls in a vice, it sure as hell isn't because he put them there.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Exactly.

Part of the argument on Contract value is no doubt revolving around the question of "can he handle a full #1 goalie slate of games?".

The answer to that has to be a yes or a no. If yes, then pay the man. If no, then argue that he should be paid less.

BUT -- and this is directly tied to the excellent point you make -- if the answer is indeed no, then what on God's green earth led you to trade a Vezina winning goalie who obviously wanted to stay?

The Bruins traded Linus -- which no one can read but a vote that Swayman was their guy moving forward. You can't now say "yeah, but we don't know if he should get paid like a guy who can carry heavy load".

People can rag on Swayman all they want but this isn't his fault. He has a right to negotiate for what he thinks is fair. If he has the Bruins balls in a vice, it sure as hell isn't because he put them there.

Well, that depends. If Swayman wants $2M+ more than Saros, is that fair? Because Saros is paid as a guy who has proven he can carry a heavy load, and has Vezina votes to prove it. Swayman can negotiate for whatever he wants, but should he be approaching Shesterkin's next deal? There's a lot of space around what a guy who can carry heavy load is worth. It's not that simple.

 

[Donnie Shulzhoffer]

Me listening to some good tunes reading this thread.

#myownfault

 

[NDiesel]

Me listening to some good tunes reading this thread.

#myownfault

View attachment 903872

Sums up most of the offseason here

 

[DKH]

Felger went there and isn't wrong.

Uh oh….Orr will never go on WEEI & now Swayman will never go on Felger & Mazz

if I said this Captain America would throw his shield thru my window

 

[CDJ]

I’d pay him a half mill more than Saros over the same term.

 

[dugg133]

I'm saying Boston knows what it wants to pay and Sway knows what he wants to earn. Each side pointing to another player's salary is arbitrary because it doesn't change anything in their process. They have to reach an agreement or not and that's done via conversation. Which at this point and with Swayman going public, doesn't sound like it's happening. If anything, it sounds like he wants out.

How do you think the Bruins and Sway's camp arrive at their initial asking prices? Pulling numbers from a hat?

 

[Number8]

You're missing the entire f***ing point man. It doesn't matter because they're not in arbitration. All of their comps are irrelevant. It's literally nonsense.

You pick a comp for Sway and then I will. Go ahead. We'll play it out. You can be Sweeney and I'll be Swayman's agent.

Comps are important and I think there is room for agreement. Let's say it goes this way:

Big Lewie G comes in hard. "You know, I think Jeremy is a lock for Carey Price. Same dark hair and smouldering eyes. They're virtually identical in every way. He also reminds me a lot of Big Bob down in FLA - although I can't tell you why. So $10 to $11M seems right to me."

But Donny doesn't blink. "You know Jerry and I had dinner last night and Mr. J says he thinks Sway is more of an Eddie Giacomin type. Personally I think he has the look of a Gumper and should be paid as such. Old school chill kind of guy who really, at the end of the day, just wants to play the game he loves. Eddie pulled down, what? $150K in his prime? Let's add one zero to that and call it a day."

Surely there's room in the middle?

 

[DKH]

I'm saying Boston knows what it wants to pay and Sway knows what he wants to earn. Each side pointing to another player's salary is arbitrary because it doesn't change anything in their process. They have to reach an agreement or not and that's done via conversation. Which at this point and with Swayman going public, doesn't sound like it's happening. If anything, it sounds like he wants out.

Bruins should offer 8/60 so he’s there with Saros &. Sweens can pull a few strings and get Swayman into the Harvard School of Business

Throw in the Goodwill Hunting CD

 

[DKH]

Well, that depends. If Swayman wants $2M+ more than Saros, is that fair? Because Saros is paid as a guy who has proven he can carry a heavy load, and has Vezina votes to prove it. Swayman can negotiate for whatever he wants, but should he be approaching Shesterkin's next deal? There's a lot of space around what a guy who can carry heavy load is worth. It's not that simple.

Why he should go for 4 years if he thinks he’s that good

Maybe Swayman thinks the Bruins are dumb enough to offer 8 or more based on conjecture

If so good on Swayman for taking a shot

Swayman could play 220-240 games over next 4 years and go on at least one run where he carries the Bruins like Rask in ‘13 & ‘19, and Thomas in 2011.

Plus he should have his Masters and be working on his phd by then.

At that time he would be Saros age 29 and get a max deal here or somewhere else

 

[Carl Hungus]

You're missing the entire f***ing point man. It doesn't matter because they're not in arbitration. All of their comps are irrelevant. It's literally nonsense.

You pick a comp for Sway and then I will. Go ahead. We'll play it out. You can be Sweeney and I'll be Swayman's agent.

The comps are PART of the negotiation. Using your hypothetical, Sweeney would present an offer (based on his comps) and Swayman would present an offer (based on his perceived comps). The negotiation then takes place. So the Comps set the negotation starting points. Therefore part of the process. Swayman wouldn't accept $6M because he knows, based on how other teams have valued goalies, that he could get more on the market. Those are comps that affect his negotiating.

Or if you want to use your logic of "top AAV" range, that range is literally also a comp.

 

[DominicT]

How? The following roster leaves them with 9.7mil in space according to PuckPedia's roster builder:

Zacha-Lindholm-Pasta
Marchand-Coyle-Lysell
Frederic-Poitras-Geekie
Jones-Beecher-Kastelic

Lindholm-Mac
Zadorov-Carlo
Lohrei-Peeke

xxxxx/Bussi

Brazeau, Wotherspoon as the only extras.

Can maybe scrap together another like 200k by sending Kastelic and Lysell down and replacing them with league min guys, but besides that I don't see where the fat is to trim.

They could go with a 21 man roster for one.

There is nothing in the rule book that says they have to carry 21, 22, or 23 players.

In fact, it states you have to carry 20. And in the event you have to play a game with 19 because you don't have cap space to call someone up, you can call up a league minimum player for the next game and not have him count against the cap

 

[SwayHeyKid]

How many playoffs rounds has Saros won again? Asking for a friend

Swayman is a 25 year old future superstar who is already awesome and will only get better. That’s a guy you put money and long years into. I don’t care what he gets he just better be here

A 25 year old Swayman is worth more than a 29 year old Saros.