Sportsnet: Jeff Marek: Holland looking to move 1st or top prospects for LD

[Gurglesons]

If Holland is offering assets now I doubt it’s to teams who are still very much in the hunt. My guess is it’s to teams who already planning for next season.

The Penguins need to shore up their D with younger assets to help retool and readjust their cap picture next year.

Pettersson and Matheson have likely little value in terms of what they bring back. Dumoulin, I think could be a realistic move if they are a bubble team.

 

[JKG33]

Where did anyone say a #1 signed long term? Lmfao I don’t mean Chychrun

Is that not who we were talking about?

 

[Cloned]

The Penguins need to shore up their D with younger assets to help retool and readjust their cap picture next year.

Pettersson and Matheson have likely little value in terms of what they bring back. Dumoulin, I think could be a realistic move if they are a bubble team.

I’d be surprised if you guys traded away a still affordable key piece while you’re still in the Crosby/Malkin window.

How much would Rust cost though?

 

[Gurglesons]

Dumoulin's rank among Penguins defencemen this year:

CF%: Last
XGF%: Last
SCF%: 2nd last
HDCF%: Last (with a bullet)

His game fell off a lot last year too from the looks of things.

Dumoulin was a hell of a defenceman at his peak, but he looks to be on the downswing now. Pittsburgh should be overjoyed if they could get a Broberg level prospect for him, never mind adding a first too.

Dumoulin has been recovering from COVID.

Last year.

Corsi For%: 51.4% (4th)
Goals For%: 58.62% (2nd)
xGF: 27.1 (2nd)
Scoring Chance %: 51.71% (2nd)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 48.95% (2nd)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 9.19% (4th)
On-ice save%: .937 (1st)
5v5 TOI/GP: 18:34 (2nd)
Goals/60: 0.32 (2nd)
Assists/60: 0.71 (4th)
Points/60: 1.02 (3rd)

 

[Gurglesons]

I’d be surprised if you guys traded away a still affordable key piece while you’re still in the Crosby/Malkin window.

How much would Rust cost though?

I'd do Rust for your first easy.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I’m not a big fan of JFresh, but his model shows no drop off defensively.

His HDCF% has gone from 55.56% to 48.95% to 44.93% in the last three years. That chart also shows him as "decently good" defensively, not elite.

Scoring chances, XG%, and CF% have seen a similar downward trajectory.

I think he's fine, but if you're expecting a Broberg+ level return, I'm not willing to pay that.

 

[Rubi]

How can Holland afford a decent LD when all he's trading is prospects or draft picks?

The team has virtually zero cap space left and are sitting ata $88.6m cap hit

 

[Cloned]

I'd do Rust for your first easy.

Might actually be an option, but not until farther down the line when it’s looking more certain that we’re actually going to be a contender this year.

 

[Gurglesons]

His HDCF% has gone from 55.56% to 48.95% to 44.93% in the last three years. That chart also shows him as "decently good" defensively, not elite.

Scoring chances, XG%, and CF% have seen a similar downward trajectory.

I think he's fine, but if you're expecting a Broberg+ level return, I'm not willing to pay that.

He's a better defensive defenseman than 75% of the league by those metrics.

What defenseman do you think you can target that fits what you need for less in terms of value while also suiting your cap picture?

The Penguins have been one of the best 5v5 teams in the league over the past three years and Dumoulin is their top pairing D. You would dig him once you saw him settle in, guarantee it.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Do people on the main forum just treat Oiler threads as a joke? Or does anyone on the main board know anything about the Oilers? This is honestly stupid

 

[McTonyBrar]

Is that not who we were talking about?

I was only talking about a top 4 LD. Chychrun sure but even I know that won’t get him. A top 4 like Lindholm is possible

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Dumoulin has been recovering from COVID.

Last year.

Corsi For%: 51.4% (4th)
Goals For%: 58.62% (2nd)
xGF: 27.1 (2nd)
Scoring Chance %: 51.71% (2nd)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 48.95% (2nd)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 9.19% (4th)
On-ice save%: .937 (1st)
5v5 TOI/GP: 18:34 (2nd)
Goals/60: 0.32 (2nd)
Assists/60: 0.71 (4th)
Points/60: 1.02 (3rd)

That's... not what his advanced stats show.

CF%: 5th
XGF%: 4th
SCF%: 4th
HDCF% 5th

Granted Friedman only played a few games, but Dumoulin very much looks like a guy that's only playing top pairing minutes because the Pens don't have much in the way of other options.

The fact that his advanced stats look extremely similar to Cody Ceci's scares me more than it encourages me, honestly.

Also of concern, Dumoulin was 6th among Penguins defencemen last year in defensive zonestarts. Wouldn't you want a defensive wizard to be.. utilized defensively? He had the highest offensive zonestart push of any regular Pens D, which is how Edmonton utilizes "notably sucks at defence" Tyson Barrie.

Again, not trying to trash the guy, I'm just trying to make sense of your "top 3 organizational prospect + 1st rounder" valuation. I just don't see it.

 

[Larry Hanson]

Any trade would have to be cap neutral, assuming it's a good LD then that would probably mean shipping out several million in the deal. Who are the Oilers sending back to make it work? Kassian?
They would be paying assets to gain a good player and dump a bad contract, could be expensive.

 

[Colezuki]

Chariot to EDM come deadline time, book it

 

[rt]

Just saying.

Remember when I said Hall could take a shorter term deal in FA and you guys swore he wouldn’t leave term and money on the table? And he ended up signing in Buffalo for one year?

Or when you were dead set against a Nurse for OEL deal because Nurse was nothing more than a decent Top 4 defenseman and OEL had better value than that?

My valuations aren’t totally off and yours aren’t totally on, that’s my point.

You predicted COVID-19?

 

[Draiskull]

Chariot to EDM come deadline time, book it

For Lavoie+ 3rd

 

[Colezuki]

For Lavoie+ 3rd

if that's roughly got the same value as a first I could see it working, not gonna comment on prospects as I don't know anyone else's well but I think Chariot gets about a 1st back in value

 

[Gurglesons]

That's... not what his advanced stats show.

CF%: 5th
XGF%: 4th
SCF%: 4th
HDCF% 5th

Granted Friedman only played a few games, but Dumoulin very much looks like a guy that's only playing top pairing minutes because the Pens don't have much in the way of other options.

The fact that his advanced stats look extremely similar to Cody Ceci's scares me more than it encourages me, honestly.

Also of concern, Dumoulin was 6th among Penguins defencemen last year in defensive zonestarts. Wouldn't you want a defensive wizard to be.. utilized defensively? He had the highest offensive zonestart push of any regular Pens D, which is how Edmonton utilizes "notably sucks at defence" Tyson Barrie.

I was posting last years numbers.

You obviously don't know anything about Brian Dumoulin if you don't think he was utilized defensively.

He also is top in defensive zone starts this year.

I guess it's hard to judge top pairing defenseman on a contender given you're soon to be paying like 9.5 for a worse version of Seth Jones.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Did anybody mention hampus lindholm?

 

[Spilot23]

I hear toughness and LD. That's MacDermid ! You can put him in your bottom 6 and can play LD as well

 

[Drew311]

I think you missed the part when he mentioned 1st's and top prospects.

 

[bucks_oil]

I don't think it's chychrun either like you believe because oilers love to overrate their prospects. holloway is good but acting like he's going to be some surefire star is quite an exaggeration too. caufield had much better numbers than him and look at him.

The last time they played together in Wisconsin, one guy had 52 points in 31 games while the other guy had 35 in 23 (which would be ~47 in 31)... that's hardly a difference. Holloway is also 6'1 and 203 while the other guy is 5'9 and 162. Caufield is going to be a good player, but I don't think its a huge surprise that a smaller player has some hiccups making the transition. It also isn't unreasonable to have higher expectations for a larger, more physical player.

 

[Colezuki]

Any trade would have to be cap neutral, assuming it's a good LD then that would probably mean shipping out several million in the deal. Who are the Oilers sending back to make it work? Kassian?
They would be paying assets to gain a good player and dump a bad contract, could be expensive.

At the deadline, Ben Chariot 3.5M x 0.25 = 750K in room is all that's needed

I'm on the pimp chariot trade and he's going for the value of a late first

 

[TFHockey]

Did anybody mention hampus lindholm?

Yeah, and it was pointed out the Ducks are playing really well right now and aren't likely to move guys like him. Maybe if they fall back to earth by the deadline, but I dunno.

 

[Colezuki]

I think you missed the part when he mentioned 1st's and top prospects.

I think you missed the part where he said 1st or top prospects which fits the mold of chariot at the deadline