Confirmed with Link: Jeff Carter signs two-year extension with Penguins

[Peat]

Thanks for the breakdown.

Confirms the first thought on this - we're not getting a better 3C than Carter in FA for that kind of money. He brings a lot that we've lacked in a 3C since Bonino left, and a couple things we've lacked since Staal. Because of his smarts, I think he'll age pretty gracefully. At the end of this deal, Carter will be the same age Cullen was when he first came to Pittsburgh.

And it's only 2 years. Pretty much ideal term and cap hit, realistically.

Not in FA, no.

But we've got two candidates in org. Blueger's more than shown he can do it, although maybe not in the same style as Carter, and while we're not quite sure what ERod's consistent talent level is, he's definitely best at C and has been dynamite at times. No complaints about Carter at 3m if he ages gracefully in a vacuum, but as for the rest...well, we'll see.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I think it says good things about the organization that such a well-respected, well-liked guy as Carter left a great comfy situation in LA and immediately decided he wanted to play a couple more years and presumably retire here.

That's probably the clearest sign I've seen.

Nice to see the reputation actually bear some fruit and result in a tangible positive thing happening.

 

[Gurglesons]

Not in FA, no.

But we've got two candidates in org. Blueger's more than shown he can do it, although maybe not in the same style as Carter, and while we're not quite sure what ERod's consistent talent level is, he's definitely best at C and has been dynamite at times. No complaints about Carter at 3m if he ages gracefully in a vacuum, but as for the rest...well, we'll see.

I also question if a player like Carter is gobbled up in UFA immediately

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Not in FA, no.

But we've got two candidates in org. Blueger's more than shown he can do it, although maybe not in the same style as Carter, and while we're not quite sure what ERod's consistent talent level is, he's definitely best at C and has been dynamite at times. No complaints about Carter at 3m if he ages gracefully in a vacuum, but as for the rest...well, we'll see.

They don't seem too keen on using ERod at center in the bottom 6, for whatever reason. I would've liked to see it, but if they're prioritizing being 4 strong down the middle, it seems like they've made their preference known.

I feel confident about Crosby-Malkin-Carter-Blueger down the middle next year, and Carter gives us a contingency plan when Blueger becomes an FA the following year. No guarantees, but Carter's been one of the more consistent positives since he joined the team and has already shown that he can be a difference maker in the playoffs.

I'd like to think this doesn't necessarily turf the idea of re-signing Rodrigues.

 

[eXile3]

Thanks for the breakdown. Confirms my first thought on this - we're not getting a better 3C than Carter in FA for that kind of money.

He brings a lot that we've lacked in a 3C since Bonino left, and a couple things we've lacked since Staal. Because of his size and smarts, I think he'll age gracefully. At the end of this deal, Carter will be the same age Cullen was when he first came to Pittsburgh.

And it's only 2 years. Pretty much ideal term and cap hit, realistically.

Bonino and Staal were both good defensive players. Carter's not. I know he's had some tough usage this year with injuries but he's got a negative xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60, CA/60 according to evolve hockey.

Plus why do it now? Teams weren't going to line up to sign him.

 

[Peat]

I also question if a player like Carter is gobbled up in UFA immediately

A two cup veteran centre currently pacing at 59 points?

The closest comparable I can think of is Patrick Marleau getting 3 x 6m at 38 off a 48 point season. Even allowing for a slight retraction in free agency madness and some scoring increases, that seems like quite a level of interest. And quite a friendly contract for us. Thornton turned his 50 point season at 37 into 8m (don't think he even got to UFA) and okay, yeah, he is Joe Thornton.

Matt Cullen took a 2 x 3.5m contract at 37 after a 52 point pace season.

I think not only are you wrong, but it looks like Carter took a discount off of what he could have got to stay here, even assuming his scoring pace wouldn't last.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Bonino and Staal were both good defensive players. Carter's not. I know he's had some tough usage this year with injuries but he's got a negative xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60, CA/60 according to evolve hockey.

Plus why do it now? Teams weren't going to line up to sign him.

Hockey Reference seems to show he fares pretty good on CF and CA/60:

Jeff Carter Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Carter's shown the ability to create offense at 3C, which we haven't had consistently since Bonino's part of one year with Kessel and Hagelin. He was also our best player last playoffs and brings a size and strength combo we don't have much of on the roster - and he's friggin' 57% in the dot to boot. There'd have been plenty of interest in Carter if he'd hit the market.

I'm glad to have him locked up. I like what he's brought the team.

 

[Gurglesons]

A two cup veteran centre currently pacing at 59 points?

The closest comparable I can think of is Patrick Marleau getting 3 x 6m at 38 off a 48 point season. Even allowing for a slight retraction in free agency madness and some scoring increases, that seems like quite a level of interest. And quite a friendly contract for us. Thornton turned his 50 point season at 37 into 8m (don't think he even got to UFA) and okay, yeah, he is Joe Thornton.

Matt Cullen took a 2 x 3.5m contract at 37 after a 52 point pace season.

I think not only are you wrong, but it looks like Carter took a discount off of what he could have got to stay here, even assuming his scoring pace wouldn't last.

Fair. I’m probably overreacting as I am prone to do initially.

 

[Peat]

They don't seem too keen on using ERod at center in the bottom 6, for whatever reason. I would've liked to see it, but if they're prioritizing being 4 strong down the middle, it seems like they've made their preference known.

I feel confident about Crosby-Malkin-Carter-Blueger down the middle next year, and Carter gives us a contingency plan when Blueger becomes an FA the following year. No guarantees, but Carter's been one of the more consistent positives since he joined the team and has already shown that he can be a difference maker in the playoffs.

I'd like to think this doesn't necessarily turf the idea of re-signing Rodrigues.

Yeah, I think they don't see ERod as a permanent centre. Which is nuts to me. As for re-signing him - I don't think it turfs the idea of doing it, but I think he needs to have a far better second half of the season at W for it to look interesting.

Crosby-Malkin-Carter-Blueger is gnarly... but I worry a little about losing Blueger when maybe we don't have to. Besides, I'm surprised you're not looking at all this money in bottom six centres and working out how it could be spent on elite top six wingers

I'm not saying they did the wrong thing. Or the right thing either. Just a little surprised it happened now and wondering how it will work out.

Bonino and Staal were both good defensive players. Carter's not. I know he's had some tough usage this year with injuries but he's got a negative xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60, CA/60 according to evolve hockey.

Plus why do it now? Teams weren't going to line up to sign him.

When you say negative, what do you mean?

And I think teams would have been falling over themselves to get at him now I've looked at interest in comparable veterans.

 

[Darren McCord]

Haha you know damn well ZAR will be back next season.

i don’t think so. He’s not a Hextall guy and is falling out of favor

 

[BrookswasHere44]

I'm not sure what there is to complain about with that kind of deal for your 3C that performs like he has ...

They'll find anything with everything

 

[eXile3]

Yeah, I think they don't see ERod as a permanent centre. Which is nuts to me. As for re-signing him - I don't think it turfs the idea of doing it, but I think he needs to have a far better second half of the season at W for it to look interesting.

Crosby-Malkin-Carter-Blueger is gnarly... but I worry a little about losing Blueger when maybe we don't have to. Besides, I'm surprised you're not looking at all this money in bottom six centres and working out how it could be spent on elite top six wingers

I'm not saying they did the wrong thing. Or the right thing either. Just a little surprised it happened now and wondering how it will work out.



When you say negative, what do you mean?

And I think teams would have been falling over themselves to get at him now I've looked at interest in comparable veterans.

The RAPM model has him around a -1 Z score in those areas. The way I interpret that is one STDV away from the mean towards the wrong tail. As pointed out models differ and can lack context but still something to consider.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

This is great, ideally you'd have gotten the cap hit a smidge lower, but no big deal. Carter provides insurance against Sid and Geno getting hurt, Geno leaving, Rust leaving, Kapanen being traded for spare parts, etc etc. Important player for us now, arguably more important moving into next year when I'd love to see him slotted on RW with Sid or Geno.

Yep Carter has shown to be durable too. He's only missed time to the protocol so far I believe?
Played heavy minutes this year as well.

Now we have injury protection next season. Sleepy strikes again.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

The RAPM model has him around a -1 Z score in those areas. The way I interpret that is one STDV away from the mean towards the wrong tail. As pointed out models differ and can lack context but still something to consider.

Wait. RAPM a neg 1 Z score? Only one deviation away from the mean and on the nasty tail? I have no idea what any of this means, but we should run for the hills.

 

[BobCole]

Yeah, I think they don't see ERod as a permanent centre. Which is nuts to me. As for re-signing him - I don't think it turfs the idea of doing it, but I think he needs to have a far better second half of the season at W for it to look interesting.

I've been busy trying to wrap my head around ERod. Perhaps I'm extrapolating too much from recent history, but it seems to me that he produces far better as a center than on the wing. And frankly, I don't blame the Pens for shelling out $3M+ for Carter because 1) he's proven he can contribute at both center and wing and 2) I'd bet on Carter's continued production beofre I'd bet on ERod's.

So where does that leave ERod and the Pens? I'm guessing he finds a new home next year unless 1) he proves useful/productive on wing and 2) we can come to a deal with him. I don't see a combination of those two being likely, but we'll see!

Finally, I don't understand people proclaiming that we *need* more scoring up front. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Carter, Blueger + retaining *some* of: Rust, Kapanen, ERod, Heinen, and McGinn gives us a good forward group next year. Sure, another high impact winger would never hurt, but I just don't see it as the team's biggest hole. I think this team's keys to success next season are, in order of importance:

1) Health
2) Health
3) Health
4) (Continued) Steady performance from Jarry
4) A middle or bottom-pairing dman
5) A backup goaltender who can play .500 hockey for 20-25 games

None of the above require overhauling the roster in any meaningful way. I guess this is why I'm not worried about Hextall's supposed reputation for inaction. This isn't a team that needs a gambler JR at the helm, IMHO.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I've been busy trying to wrap my head around ERod. Perhaps I'm extrapolating too much from recent history, but it seems to me that he produces far better as a center than on the wing. And frankly, I don't blame the Pens for shelling out $3M+ for Carter because 1) he's proven he can contribute at both center and wing and 2) I'd bet on Carter's continued production beofre I'd bet on ERod's.

So where does that leave ERod and the Pens? I'm guessing he finds a new home next year unless 1) he proves useful/productive on wing and 2) we can come to a deal with him. I don't see a combination of those two being likely, but we'll see!

Finally, I don't understand people proclaiming that we *need* more scoring up front. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Carter, Blueger + retaining *some* of: Rust, Kapanen, ERod, Heinen, and McGinn gives us a good forward group next year. Sure, another high impact winger would never hurt, but I just don't see it as the team's biggest hole. I think this team's keys to success next season are, in order of importance:

1) Health
2) Health
3) Health
4) (Continued) Steady performance from Jarry
4) A middle or bottom-pairing dman
5) A backup goaltender who can play .500 hockey for 20-25 games

None of the above require overhauling the roster in any meaningful way. I guess this is why I'm not worried about Hextall's supposed reputation for inaction. This isn't a team that needs a gambler JR at the helm, IMHO.

Yep, We have way more evidence suggesting ERod can't maintain this, rather than the opposite. Carter should still be a serviceable 3C or good 4C during the last year of the deal.

I have total faith in Hextall doing well during the summer. It's a difficult situation and we're gonna lose a very good piece or 2. He will fight to get the lowest cap hits possible though. He'll play hardball with Rust and Letang.

I disagree with point #5 though. A .500 goalie would be truly unfortunate

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Yeah, I think they don't see ERod as a permanent centre. Which is nuts to me. As for re-signing him - I don't think it turfs the idea of doing it, but I think he needs to have a far better second half of the season at W for it to look interesting.

For sure. Swift decline when he switched - but he set himself a pretty unreachable standard.

Crosby-Malkin-Carter-Blueger is gnarly... but I worry a little about losing Blueger when maybe we don't have to. Besides, I'm surprised you're not looking at all this money in bottom six centres and working out how it could be spent on elite top six wingers

I'm not saying they did the wrong thing. Or the right thing either. Just a little surprised it happened now and wondering how it will work out.

For Carter...I'll make an exception. Dude won me over when he scored more goals in 1 playoff run than Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, or Rust have in their last 3.

 

[Captain Hook]

Happy with this news. He's been a great fit.

 

[Pens x]

There was no chance sleepy was going to let the one NHL player he’s traded for over two seasons get away. I think it’s a fair signing for everyone.

 

[JRS91]

He's on pace for 24 goals and 28 assists for 52 points in 75 games.

I think that's pretty solid given his age. Let's be honest, Crosby and Malkin aren't playing 82 games each, having Carter around is a really nice luxury.

 

[metalan2]

Meh. Whatever to me.

 

[Andy99]

Yohe has a piece out tonight, and he is saying he thinks Malkin is going to be next to sign because Malkin has publicly (and apparently privately) said he has no problem taking a paycut.

Yohe says Rust is wanting something starting in the 6M AAV range, and is wanting 6 years. At 30 years old, that might not be a very wise signing by the Penguins.

Yohe also says also signs point to Letang wanting a raise, which means re-signing him may prove to be extremely difficult.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Yohe has a piece out tonight, and he is saying he thinks Malkin is going to be next to sign because Malkin has publicly (and apparently privately) said he has no problem taking a paycut.

Yohe says Rust is wanting something starting in the 6M AAV range, and is wanting 6 years. At 30 years old, that might not be a very wise signing by the Penguins.

Yohe also says also signs point to Letang wanting a raise, which means re-signing him may prove to be extremely difficult.

I'm confident that whatever else happens this year, both Malkin and Letang will get re-signed. Both sides want it and nobody's asking for anything unreasonable.

 

[Coastal Kev]

Why not wait until the end of the season? His game could fall off, he could have nagging injuries, that money could be spent elsewhere on someone younger.......


oh well, they don't see age as a problem.......we'll see who's right quick enough

 

[canadianguy77]

Rust is weird. I’ve never seen a guy look so discombobulated with his centerman and still be able to put up points like he does.

I remember when I was a kid and Mario was in his heyday, and I’d open the morning paper to check the box scores from the night before. It was usually a combination off all 3 forwards on his line that would end up getting on the scoreboard. You rarely see that with Jake, Sid and Rust.

Could just be the game at large is like that now though.