Jason Botterill Discussion 3

[joshjull]

I'm not sure why July 2007 was even brought up. He wasn't comparing the ROR trade to that, simply stating how much the trade set the team back. Pluck one of the top 1 or 2 best players off any team out of their lineup and it will set them back, especially when it's a center. It's not necessary to reply with "but losing the co-caps was worse." Obviously it was.

Its brought up because some of you don't seem know what a franchise getting set back actually looks like.

Saying a franchise is getting set back is a very big statement that encompasses more than the NHL roster. If he had said losing ROR makes it harder to build a Cup contender then I could see his point. But going with the over the top comment about the franchise struggling to recover from this trade is implying something far bigger.

Maybe you guys are younger and didn't experience or remember the Golisano/Quinn stuff. Because what they did is still being dug out from

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Its brought up because some of you don't seem know what a franchise getting set back actually looks like.

Saying a franchise is getting set back is a very big statement that encompasses more than the NHL roster. If he had said losing ROR makes it harder to build a Cup contender then I could see his point. But going with the over the top comment about the franchise struggling to recover from this trade is implying something far bigger.

Maybe you guys are younger and didn't experience or remember the Golisano/Quinn stuff. Because what they did is still being dug out from

I experienced it and it was devastating. I guess we're interpreting what he meant differently. I didn't read it as "the Sabres are going to struggle for the next ten years." Semantics again.

 

[joshjull]

It has been and will continue to be difficult to recover from that trade.

The current hole at 2C is a direct consequence.

Recover to what? Words have meaning. We would need to have been somewhere for the loss of ROR to make it hard to recover or get back there.

What exactly will we struggled to recover to? 23rd place in the NHL? That's the best we did with ROR here. I'm not blaming him btw.

This is why I brought up the Golisano/Quinn stuff. Their decisions decimated one of the best teams in the NHL. A team that won the President's trophy. Their decisions are things we would never recover from.

 

[Snippit]

Recover to what? Words have meaning. We would need to have been somewhere for the loss of ROR to make it hard to recover or get back there.

What exactly will we struggled to recover to? 23rd place in the NHL? That's the best we did with ROR here. I'm not blaming him btw.

This is why I brought up the Golisano/Quinn stuff. Their decisions decimated one of the best teams in the NHL. A team that won the President's trophy. Their decisions are things we would never recover from.

So if we lost Eichel right now, we wouldn’t have a hard time “recovering” from it because we were a bottom 5 team anyways.

But it’s still damaging as f*** to the trajectory of the franchise which is obviously my point.

 

[OkimLom]

As I mentioned I wasn't talking about the trade itself but the idea we will have a hard time recovering from it.

Oh I agree, just trying to lighten up the conversation.

IMO, in terms of roster moves, I don't think we've had any franchise ruining moments since July 1 2007. Not under Murray and his trading off of 2015 1st round picks or depletion of the defense, nor the Botterill trading ROR away or his rushing of prospects/players. That's not to say there weren't roster moves that called for disagreement, but nothing that couldn't be fixed quickly. At this point, the only two moves that could rival Black Sunday, is the trade of Eichel and/or Dahlin.

 

[OkimLom]

It has been and will continue to be difficult to recover from that trade.

The current hole at 2C is a direct consequence.

It only appears to look tough to recover from because we don't have prospects ready to jump in that they plan to use there right away, and Buffalo themselves are limiting their options by not trying Reinhart there, and the players they have brought in to fix that solution have failed. Those decisions look horrible, but it doesn't make it impossible to recover from. If a new GM is brought in and decides to try Reinhart there, or decides to sign someone for the hole that is talented, it would help.

The only thing the ROR trade did to the Franchise itself, is hindered its ability to be competitive at the current time. Now if the ROR trade has an underlying impact within the locker room, with how someone like ROR was treated, then you may be treading into the territory of the Quinn/Golisano years in terms of perception of the Buffalo Sabres and the damage done then. We don't know for sure if it did or didn't so I'm not going to say with certainty.

 

[joshjull]

Housley being terrible is also independent of the impact of the ROR trade. Thats akin to the weak "we lost with him and we lost without him" argument. Obviously Housley was terrible for the team. Keeping ROR and firing Housley, both of these would make the team better.

The poster I quoted said ….. " the single biggest thing that is going to kill us this season is not having an NHL quality #2 center (and #3 as well)".

I completely disagree. Our coaching staff will have a far bigger impact.

I'm amazed I have to explain this but the comments about losing with and without ROR under Housley is an attack on Housley. We did finished last in the NHL with ROR as our #2 center. It shows that a bad coach can suppress the results of good players which in turn impacts the success of the team. Which is why I'm more concerned about how good Kruger and his staff are than I am about the #2 center spot.

I have no idea why you would even bring up keeping or not keeping ROR when thats not an option and thus has no bearing on what will impact our success next year. Which is what I was talking about.

 

[sufferer]

Recover to what? Words have meaning. We would need to have been somewhere for the loss of ROR to make it hard to recover or get back there.

In my view, the recovery will always be the ability to fill the void left by a player who's capable of winning both the Selke and Smythe. Not too many of those to go around, however much you attribute those achievements to luck or landing on a perennial playoff team. I'd much rather have ROR than who they've put in his place or anyone we could realistically acquire, regardless of overall team performance.

 

[joshjull]

So if we lost Eichel right now, we wouldn’t have a hard time “recovering” from it because we were a bottom 5 team anyways.

Lets not double down on the hyperbole. Losing Eichel after losing ROR is not the same thing as just losing ROR. In one scenario you still have a young #1 center. In the other you don't have any #1 center

But it’s still damaging as **** to the trajectory of the franchise which is obviously my point.

It certainly doesn't help in terms of talent on the ice but I don't think its nearly as damaging as you do.* Even without ROR last season we had more talent/depth last year than at any point since Jack was drafted. Yet we went no where in large part due to the head coach. We will have even more talent and depth this upcoming season. With more possible moves to come. Lets see what the coach can do with it.

* I think it needed to happen for reasons that I wont get into in this thread because there is a thread for it. I'll just say I can live with the decision to trade him.

 

[Tatanka]

Exploring the Impact of New NHL Coaches and GMs

For those expecting significant improvement from Krueger.

 

[Chainshot]

Exploring the Impact of New NHL Coaches and GMs

For those expecting significant improvement from Krueger.

Well this doesn’t engender confidence :

...the first year of a coach or GM’s tenure will set the tone for improvement or decline in that team’s Scoring Chances and if you aren’t seeing improvement by year 2, you likely won’t see improvement.

 

[Tatanka]

Well this doesn’t engender confidence :

Yeah that one gave me a warm fuzzy as well.

 

[Tatanka]

Well this doesn’t engender confidence :

On the bright side he did say all things equal, a good coach will outperform a bad GM, so here's hoping Ralph is a gem!

 

[GOALOFSSON]

You're right, if your point is "how bad is the trade". In a vacuum looking purely at value going out and coming in, it's as bad as just about any trade you can find.

In pure value the Skinner trade was decently worse for Carolina than the ROR trade was for us. This alone cancels out any negative value from the trade, we've already recovered from it.

Only side effect is a temporary hit at the secondary center position. This is just a minor set back until Mitts is ready (could be decent this year) and we even have Cozens now.

I'll accept the argument that we could have kept ROR an extra year or so to up his value (even though I'm kind of starting to like the trade, we'll find out more this season) but even then it admits we're currently in the more neutral outcome.

Plenty of other trades that are worse in the last decade alone, 5 years even. Calm down and enjoy the show people.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

So if we lost Eichel right now, we wouldn’t have a hard time “recovering” from it because we were a bottom 5 team anyways.

But it’s still damaging as **** to the trajectory of the franchise which is obviously my point.

But if we then went and got Marner for scraps it wouldn't look as bad, right?

The better question, if Botts managed to get Marner for scraps, would he be celebrated or would it be completely written off because Toronto is in a cap situation, so it doesn't actually count. Serious question.

 

[Dreakon13]

In pure value the Skinner trade was decently worse for Carolina than the ROR trade was for us. This alone cancels out any negative value from the trade, we've already recovered from it.

Only side effect is a temporary hit at the secondary center position. This is just a minor set back until Mitts is ready (could be decent this year) and we even have Cozens now.

I'll accept the argument that we could have kept ROR an extra year or so to up his value (even though I'm kind of starting to like the trade, we'll find out more this season) but even then it admits we're currently in the more neutral outcome.

Plenty of other trades that are worse in the last decade alone, 5 years even. Calm down and enjoy the show people.

Eh, I'm not one to defend the anti-Botts, "everything has to revolve around the ROR trade" crowd. But devil's advocate, not only did we lose a great player, a much needed 2C and would-eventually-be Cup winner and playoff MVP... but we did it for one player in Sobotka almost universally regarded as the worst in the NHL (with analytics to support it), one player in Berglund that literally quit hockey shortly after the trade (lol at least we freed up that cap?), a prospect in Thompson that while I personally believe has oodles of potential is also near or at the bottom of the league analytically, and as late of a 1st as possible. The trade didn't even free up any cap short term until Berglund bailed.

Setting aside "value" I guess, the optics on the trade couldn't possibly be worse. It's gotta be near the top of a "worst looking" trade list. Which leads to a lot of the dramatics we see on the boards here... understandably so at times. Most of us are past the point of trying to see the positives (or look past the negatives) in these things, but even those that do have to dig deep on this one. Every piece involved is either straight up negative value for the Sabres or have a huge asterisk attached.

 

[Chainshot]

In pure value the Skinner trade was decently worse for Carolina than the ROR trade was for us. This alone cancels out any negative value from the trade, we've already recovered from it.

Only side effect is a temporary hit at the secondary center position. This is just a minor set back until Mitts is ready (could be decent this year) and we even have Cozens now.

I'll accept the argument that we could have kept ROR an extra year or so to up his value (even though I'm kind of starting to like the trade, we'll find out more this season) but even then it admits we're currently in the more neutral outcome.

Plenty of other trades that are worse in the last decade alone, 5 years even. Calm down and enjoy the show people.

Not having quality center options is not minor. They have struggled for a decade to find quality top 6 centers. Hopefully they can groom one of Mittelstadt or Cozens into that for the top 6 while finding replacements for the limited options they have had at the bottom of the lineup as well.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Not having quality center options is not minor. They have struggled for a decade to find quality top 6 centers. Hopefully they can groom one of Mittelstadt or Cozens into that for the top 6 while finding replacements for the limited options they have had at the bottom of the lineup as well.

It's a minor issue because it's a 0-2 year wait for those two, I can wait. Not like we don't have options and there may be more moves made.

We'll see how the season/trade shakes out the next two seasons.

 

[Chainshot]

It's a minor issue because it's a 0-2 year wait for those two, I can wait. Not like we don't have options and there may be more moves made.

We'll see how the season/trade shakes out the next two seasons.

We’ve been over the perils of both assuming someone is capable of a role when they aren’t and the perils of burning through ELC time on guys like Dahlin and previously Eichel and Reinhart. It also doesn’t make the guy on the team happy nor does it sell well to players being recruited as UFA.

Botterill has done a nice job this summer of transitioning his RD toward a modern unit and had pulled in some depth guys. But they still have personnel questions and we have no idea how Krueger works out in the long term. There is a lot riding on hope.

 

[slip]

We’ve been over the perils of both assuming someone is capable of a role when they aren’t and the perils of burning through ELC time on guys like Dahlin and previously Eichel and Reinhart. It also doesn’t make the guy on the team happy nor does it sell well to players being recruited as UFA.

Botterill has done a nice job this summer of transitioning his RD toward a modern unit and had pulled in some depth guys. But they still have personnel questions and we have no idea how Krueger works out in the long term. There is a lot riding on hope.

I'm not confident Kreuger is going to step in and right this ship. Spending the last 5 years guiding Southampton to mediocrity doesn't quite scream this guy is ready to coach the f*** out of a NHL team. I hope I'm dead wrong about the guy.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Ryan Johnson, Tage Thompson and Colin Miller are the value pieces we got for RoR. The Blues won a cup, good for them. When RoR was their best player they were in last at Jan 3. Binnington arrived and literally carried them to a cup. He was Tim Thomas or Marty Turco regular season good for them all season and playoffs.

Whose to say 2 or even all 3 of Johnson, Thompson and Miller are all full time contributors to an eventual cup win? At least now we know who we got with the 1st is, we can compare the trade over the long run. Of course the Blues would be ahead they won a cup right away, but if Buffalo wins one in the next 3 and the Blues don't how would it be as catastrophic as its made out to be?

 

[sabremike]

Ryan Johnson, Tage Thompson and Colin Miller are the value pieces we got for RoR. The Blues won a cup, good for them. When RoR was their best player they were in last at Jan 3. Binnington arrived and literally carried them to a cup. He was Tim Thomas or Marty Turco regular season good for them all season and playoffs.

Whose to say 2 or even all 3 of Johnson, Thompson and Miller are all full time contributors to an eventual cup win? At least now we know who we got with the 1st is, we can compare the trade over the long run. Of course the Blues would be ahead they won a cup right away, but if Buffalo wins one in the next 3 and the Blues don't how would it be as catastrophic as its made out to be?

If you offered all 3 of those guys to the Blues for ROR how fast do you think they would laugh and hang up the phone. The people trying to make ROR sound like a bit player in their success need to tune into Reality FM, because apparently we are supposed to believe that he ended up with the Conn Smythe by getting it out of one of those claw arcade games.

 

[brian_griffin]

I'm not confident Kreuger is going to step in and right this ship. Spending the last 5 years guiding Southampton to mediocrity doesn't quite scream this guy is ready to coach the **** out of a NHL team. I hope I'm dead wrong about the guy.

The reference to Southampton is ironic considering that’s where the Titanic departed from. Housley hit the iceberg coaching Buffalo. I find it hard to believe Ralph Krueger can do worse. His middle names may not be Jack Adams but he seems from both history/resume and testimonies to be nearly a polar opposite of Housley.

 

[Wisent42]

Ryan Johnson, Tage Thompson and Colin Miller are the value pieces we got for RoR. The Blues won a cup, good for them. When RoR was their best player they were in last at Jan 3. Binnington arrived and literally carried them to a cup. He was Tim Thomas or Marty Turco regular season good for them all season and playoffs.

Whose to say 2 or even all 3 of Johnson, Thompson and Miller are all full time contributors to an eventual cup win? At least now we know who we got with the 1st is, we can compare the trade over the long run. Of course the Blues would be ahead they won a cup right away, but if Buffalo wins one in the next 3 and the Blues don't how would it be as catastrophic as its made out to be?

Brandon Montour, not Colin Miller. Which makes your argument better.
The ROR-trade has to be looked at long term. Short term it was a complete bummer, but it may look completely different a couple of years down the line if Tage and Monty look like stars and/or ROR falls off a cliff and puts Blues in cap hell. Now, I'm not a fan of the trade either. I love ROR. I wanted him to get the C over Eichel. I wanted him to be the face of the franchise (and not only because he has a way better face than Eichel...) and so I really really hated that we traded him. But, we still don't know what this trade means for our future, and we still don't really know why it happened. I trust that Botts knows that better than us.

 

[slip]

The reference to Southampton is ironic considering that’s where the Titanic departed from. Housley hit the iceberg coaching Buffalo. I find it hard to believe Ralph Krueger can do worse. His middle names may not be Jack Adams but he seems from both history/resume and testimonies to be nearly a polar opposite of Housley.

The best NHL coaches do nothing but focus on hockey. That goes for any sport, frankly.

Kreuger strikes me as more sports executive dilettante than seasoned NHL coach, which many of us were clamoring for by the end of the season. Not surprised either that our MBA thinking GM was smitten by Ralph's multifaceted resume. They probably has some great communication between them too. But none of those things really matter when it comes to being a successful NHL coach.

I do, however, like Kreuger's stated approach of building systems around the talent, not the other way around. Hopefully a smart, simple game plan, his skills as a motivator, and the input from Smith and Granato overcomes whatever Kreuger lacks in terms of raw NHL coaching experience/knowledge.