Jason Botterill Discussion 3

[Jim Bob]

I'm typically pretty ambivalent about trying to judge a GM on individual moves. Or even a season's worth of moves.

But, given GMJB is on his 3rd offseason, IMHO, this is where he needs to show he has a plan and ability to execute. He's set himself up to have a hard time this summer by walking away from the draft with no help for the upcoming season. Hoping the trades continue to pick up through the week

The tough part is that the only trades that happened were pure cap dumps and I can understand why that didn't interest Botterill too much.

It would have been nice if the Sabres were the ones buying out Marleau, but I can get why he wasn't pulling the trigger on PK's full cap hit or the Miller trade.

 

[freester]

Believe me that is not what he is doing. Watch interviews over the last two years. He is preaching patience to Pegula and will milk this for another two years.

The only thing that has saved his ass to this point is the Skinner trade or this doofus would be worst in the league.

He is the worst GM in the league. I would rather have Peter Chiarelli.

 

[TehDoak]

The tough part is that the only trades that happened were pure cap dumps and I can understand why that didn't interest Botterill too much.

It would have been nice if the Sabres were the ones buying out Marleau, but I can get why he wasn't pulling the trigger on PK's full cap hit or the Miller trade.

So, here's my issue with Bott's offseason so far.

He's got a lot of work to do and a limited time to do it.

For me, I've got a big project to do, I figure out all the moving pieces, you try to break it into modular pieces as much as you can, but, typically, there are going to be a few tasks with so many dependencies, they have to be tackled first.

For Buffalo, that's the Risto deal.

Now, you don't want to trade Risto, fine, you take that piece off the the table and you move on. Some team shows up with a game changing offer, sure you listen, but barring that, Risto is on our D next year, move on.

However, if you want to move Risto, then get it done with. The return will affect your UFA shopping list/Summer trade targets, and you can't realistically leave him until a team decides to pony up in August. At that point, all available RHD will be off the market and we'll go into the season with Montour and f***ing Casey Nelson as our top 2 RHD.

It's better to maybe not get 100% optimal return for an asset then to wait too long and not be able to fill in the hole on the roster you are making. The prime example would be moving RoR after most of the centers were off the market on 7/1 and we went through the whole season with Jack Eichel and then center by shitty committee.

To me, Bott's tenure is pretty much dependent on how he handles the next two weeks. He can either show everyone he has a plan and the ability to execute or he can sit around and take other teams scraps hoping it all works out, like he has so far in his tenure.

 

[Jim Bob]

So, here's my issue with Bott's offseason so far.

He's got a lot of work to do and a limited time to do it.

For me, I've got a big project to do, I figure out all the moving pieces, you try to break it into modular pieces as much as you can, but, typically, there are going to be a few tasks with so many dependencies, they have to be tackled first.

For Buffalo, that's the Risto deal.

Now, you don't want to trade Risto, fine, you take that piece off the the table and you move on. Some team shows up with a game changing offer, sure you listen, but barring that, Risto is on our D next year, move on.

However, if you want to move Risto, then get it done with. The return will affect your UFA shopping list/Summer trade targets, and you can't realistically leave him until a team decides to pony up in August. At that point, all available RHD will be off the market and we'll go into the season with Montour and ****ing Casey Nelson as our top 2 RHD.

It's better to maybe not get 100% optimal return for an asset then to wait too long and not be able to fill in the hole on the roster you are making. The prime example would be moving RoR after most of the centers were off the market on 7/1 and we went through the whole season with Jack Eichel and then center by ****ty committee.

To me, Bott's tenure is pretty much dependent on how he handles the next two weeks. He can either show everyone he has a plan and the ability to execute or he can sit around and take other teams scraps hoping it all works out, like he has so far in his tenure.

It takes two to tango.

I am willing to wait until camp opens up to judge what the roster looks like for next season.

I get that most moves happen by mid-July. But, the Skinner trade happened after that usual movement window had closed. And that trade worked out OK.

I also don't believe that the ROR trade timing was too late, I think it was a rush to be too early (before the signing bonus date) and that muted the return.

I also believe that Botterill was counting on Mitts being able to step in and fill that 2C role last year and that was a major miscalculation.

 

[TehDoak]

It takes two to tango.

I am willing to wait until camp opens up to judge what the roster looks like for next season.

I get that most moves happen by mid-July. But, the Skinner trade happened after that usual movement window had closed. And that trade worked out OK.

I also don't believe that the ROR trade timing was too late, I think it was a rush to be too early (before the signing bonus date) and that muted the return.

I also believe that Botterill was counting on Mitts being able to step in and fill that 2C role last year and that was a major miscalculation.

I'm fine with waiting until camp to judge, if he goes out and adds a top 4 RHD, a #2 C, and a RW without emptying the prospect/pick cabinets and giving away 7 year contracts and keeping Risto, I'll be pretty happy

I think more likely that we'll see 1 overpriced bad UFA signing (I'm thinking a long term deal with Simmonds has the "we need GRIT and COMPETE" speaks to the rumblings we've heard) and a bad trade (Vesey for anything of value) is what most people are expecting.

 

[Chainshot]

I liked that they went for some high-skill swings in the later rounds of this draft. I'm less happy that they spent picks to move around in later rounds more than once. I'm more pleased than not, was left wanting a bit more but I liked the direction for this one much more than last year's draft.

 

[Royal Thunder]

I liked that they went for some high-skill swings in the later rounds of this draft. I'm less happy that they spent picks to move around in later rounds more than once. I'm more pleased than not, was left wanting a bit more but I liked the direction for this one much more than last year's draft.

Personally, I actually liked that they traded up a couple times to get a higher upside guy that jumped off their board. I get that you want as many lottery tickets as possible, but if the scouts felt Huglen & Cederqvist (sounds like a house music duo ) were higher tier players worth sacrificing a later pick, then I'm fine with it.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm fine with waiting until camp to judge, if he goes out and adds a top 4 RHD, a #2 C, and a RW without emptying the prospect/pick cabinets and giving away 7 year contracts and keeping Risto, I'll be pretty happy

I think more likely that we'll see 1 overpriced bad UFA signing (I'm thinking a long term deal with Simmonds has the "we need GRIT and COMPETE" speaks to the rumblings we've heard) and a bad trade (Vesey for anything of value) is what most people are expecting.

I think that would be a tall order for any NHL GM to pull off in a single off season.

 

[DatGuy]

Personally, I actually liked that they traded up a couple times to get a higher upside guy that jumped off their board. I get that you want as many lottery tickets as possible, but if the scouts felt Huglen & Cederqvist (sounds like a house music duo ) were higher tier players worth sacrificing a later pick, then I'm fine with it.

So what your saying is quality over quantity. I'm on board.

 

[SabresSharks]

He completed the 3 essential off-season tasks on my list - fire Housley, hire a reputable replacement, and resign Skinner. He seemingly had a decent draft; we won't know for at least 2 years.

Happy so far.

I'd like to think Olofsson and Nylander will be ready for full-time NHL duty, and Mitts will be much improved, but we can't count on that. At least one decent roster player needs to be added to our dreadful middle-6 from outside.

 

[jc17]

I think that would be a tall order for any NHL GM to pull off in a single off season.

Did you say tall?

 

[Baccus]

I liked that they went for some high-skill swings in the later rounds of this draft. I'm less happy that they spent picks to move around in later rounds more than once. I'm more pleased than not, was left wanting a bit more but I liked the direction for this one much more than last year's draft.

I don't really watch prospects enough to want to comment on them, but I didn't like the trading up late twice as it's the opposite of what the basic math says since it's all a lottery at that point. I *LIKE* that they moved up for a player they wanted, but that seems like something that should have been done higher up with the later 1st and 3rd round pick for a more impact player they liked versus such late lottery picks. Hopefully they get some late hits with less ammo, but not great percentages.

I think that would be a tall order for any NHL GM to pull off in a single off season.

Yes this is a big concern for me. Lots can happen and I won't make up my mind until the season starts on 'this years club' but there is much to been done. Frankly at this point I'd be somewhat mollified with just the acquisition of a "real" 2C of some sort. We shall see.

 

[Djp]

I liked that they went for some high-skill swings in the later rounds of this draft. I'm less happy that they spent picks to move around in later rounds more than once. I'm more pleased than not, was left wanting a bit more but I liked the direction for this one much more than last year's draft.

why???

when it comes to late round picks id rather focus on targeting players you want that just sit there and take whoever is sitting there.

what id like to hear from him was why on the overagers? what was not seen in them last year?

 

[Baccus]

why???

when it comes to late round picks id rather focus on targeting players you want that just sit there and take whoever is sitting there.

Because the math/analysis shows is that it's a giant lottery for late picks and you'll get more "quality" by just having more picks. The only way to increase your chances in a lottery is by owning more tickets.

 

[Djp]

looking ahead it looks like Buffalo top 9 looks like:

Skinner-Eichel-xxx
xxx-Mitts-Reinhart
xxx-Cozens-xxx

Nylander, Olofsson would be in that top 9. They have space for one more player to protect in ED

If they target a Center they only want one for 2-3 years.

 

[Djp]

Because the math/analysis shows is that it's a giant lottery for late picks and you'll get more "quality" by just having more picks. The only way to increase your chances in a lottery is by owning more tickets.

are you saying scouting is pointless since its just a lottery

 

[Baccus]

are you saying scouting is pointless since its just a lottery

No, the quality of your scouting stays the same through all the rounds. Having more picks increases the odds of hitting on a player who is productive.

This is magnified in the later rounds as scouts ability to distinguish NHL talent is far more of a crap shoot/development/player growth issue.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Who is Manny Elk and why is his Twitter always on here. Hes not even a verified source. The guy has a tweet about chucking them with Montreal fans, yeah real professional, I guess Twitter rules don't apply anymore?

 

[Royal Thunder]

Who is Manny Elk and why is his Twitter always on here. Hes not even a verified source. The guy has a tweet about chucking them with Montreal fans, yeah real professional, I guess Twitter rules don't apply anymore?

I believe he is the guy who created Corsica, one of the biggest publically available NHL analytics sites on the web.

 

[Baccus]

He's got analytic cred but also likes to troll. And post pictures of a horrifying salad (and worse).

 

[Buffaloed]

Who is Manny Elk and why is his Twitter always on here. Hes not even a verified source. The guy has a tweet about chucking them with Montreal fans, yeah real professional, I guess Twitter rules don't apply anymore?

Nylon 101: Q&A with Emmanuel Perry on “Intro to R”

 

[jc17]

No one considers him a "source" so being verified isn't important.

And who cares if he's "unprofessional". As long as those tweets aren't posted

 

[Chainshot]

why???

when it comes to late round picks id rather focus on targeting players you want that just sit there and take whoever is sitting there.

what id like to hear from him was why on the overagers? what was not seen in them last year?

Baccus answered for me below

Because the math/analysis shows is that it's a giant lottery for late picks and you'll get more "quality" by just having more picks. The only way to increase your chances in a lottery is by owning more tickets.

Exactly. They’re going to be clusters of similar players. The likelihood that one of those guys is still available 10 or 15 pics later than where you’re selecting is pretty strong. More pics, more swings.

are you saying scouting is pointless since its just a lottery

There are actually some people who have begun investigating This very thing. Results are mixed. The one thing that does seem to be born out is the more cracks at drafting one has, the more likely one is to hit on a pic.

No, the quality of your scouting stays the same through all the rounds. Having more picks increases the odds of hitting on a player who is productive.

This is magnified in the later rounds as scouts ability to distinguish NHL talent is far more of a crap shoot/development/player growth issue.

And you said that better than I did LOL

 

[Cirris]

I just get the feeling it'll be July 3rd, and half the fans will be in such a state they'll be screaming "Do Something DARCY!!!"

That bottom six isn't very good. It need work. You can't think that it was all on Housley.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

looking ahead it looks like Buffalo top 9 looks like:

Skinner-Eichel-xxx
xxx-Mitts-Reinhart
xxx-Cozens-xxx

Nylander, Olofsson would be in that top 9. They have space for one more player to protect in ED

If they target a Center they only want one for 2-3 years.

..and that's why I'd just be throwing money at Pavelski right now. Overpay for a short period, dude practically doubles as a coach at this point.

I worry that the ROR debacle has left Botts a bit gun shy. Montour trade was great, the trade for Skinner was great, but unless it's an obvious decision I wonder if he worries over making any big moves.