Speculation: Jakob Chychrun being held out of the Coyotes lineup until a trade is completed

[Jakey53]

Dude, I know you're a Coyotes fan. I know you watch the games. This sounds like it came from a jaded Leafs fan who thinks that Arizona should just get moved to a good ol hockey loving place like Quebec already. Chychrun absolutely gets top minutes, does face top competition (admittedly not as much as others but he still does) and he gets tons of PP time because that's part of where he's good. I'm genuinely not sure how you even came to these conclusions after being a fan of the team.

In terms of ice time, he's 32nd in the league and 1st on the Coyotes in how much he gets, he's at 38% of possible ice time. Makar is 1st at 44%. He's 19th at EVTOI/GP, 30th at PPTOI/GP. He sees tons of time on the PP, being 23rd at 64% in percent possible ice time. You are correct that he spends very little time on the PK, but given that he spends a lot of time on ice during OT, I don't think that's a clear indication at least of his defensive value.

Offensively he's 23rd in On Ice Goals%, 31st on Corsi, 42nd on Fenwick, 2nd (1st being Ghost) in Off Ice expected Goals For (meaning the team scores much less when he's not on the ice), 7th in Expected Goals,

Combine that with age and contract and it's easy to see why GM's want him. Like it are not all of those stats are indicative that he has 1st pairing value and is a top defenseman.

All of this should be evident if you watch the games, since when he plays our offense runs through him and Ghost and that's not surprising and he gets plenty of time on the PP and ice in general.

Whether or not BA is f***ing up by not settling for less is a separate discussion, but Chychrun is absolutely a top pairing D and very good on the PP and at even strength.

Great post. Maybe, just maybe, your lengthy explanation gets through to Cobra (probably not) because mind sure hasn't. Cobra and a couple others think Chych should be perfect, which of course he is not, but man is he good. I don't think we really know what we have here because he plays on a low scoring team. If Chych was playing anywhere in Canada he would be getting the spotlight all the time. I understand why he wants out but I wish he didn't. Hate to trade successful home grown talent.

 

[Jakey53]

No he is not. My opinion is objective, not through rose colored glasses, knowledgable hockey people like GMs agree with me.

Which GM's agree with you?

 

[cobra427]

Which GM's agree with you?

Only the 30 that haven't traded for him in the last 18 months.

 

[Dr Quincy]

He totally can, It's just a starting point. No GM is that stubborn and wouldn't tank a deal, especially one that includes a guy who doesn't want to play there. I bet when Echel was traded, Buffalo wanted 2 first or more, they settled on one plus two players. The 2nd he wants could be a first round prospect or of equal value, so he still gets his 2nd 1st rounder. He may want 2 picks , but nobody's going to give him that.

If people think he'd actually let Chycrun walk next year if the best offer is a 1st, a 2nd and a recent 2nd rd prospect, because it's not a 1st, a 1st and a prospect, they are crazy.

It would be very easy to say "We really value this prospect higher than a recent 2nd rounder, we had him as a mid-1st rder on our board." That kind of crap happens all the time. It's really nice for fans on a forum who don't have consequences for their tough talk to say "We'll just let him walk!!!!!".

That's not going to happen. Period.

That said, I do think he'll get something fairly close to the price he's asking, or at least close enough that it can phrased that way... like the "spin" line I said above.

 

[I Hate Philadelphia]

Coyotes holding out until they can get the best offer of dead weight cap hit retired player contracts.

 

[cobra427]

The bolded above is a really good point that no one is talking about, thx YotesFan.

Our GM Bill Armstrong is a first time GM, he was involved in the Blues org for something crazy like 30 years or something, he started as a scout and worked his way up. He's a hockey lifer, one of those people who lives like a block away from the office and probably sleeps there half the time. Everyone in hockey respects him. But, this is the first time he's a GM.

Re: Chychrun, he's said the price publicly so many times literally everyone knows what Chychrun will cost to acquire. 2 firsts, and a second rounder or equivalent. It is known. So, if Bill settles for less of a return, literally no other GM will ever take him seriously in a trade ask for the rest of Bill's career.

So, Bill can't trade Chychrun for less than the original ask, he's basically backed himself into a corner. At this point he really doesn't have a choice

The only thing that will hurt for the GM is his own ego after setting a price that is obviously too high after 18 months of shopping Chych. The market sets the value not the Coyotes GM. Other GMs are less likely to even try and make a deal with the Coyotes in the future because the ask in a trade is way too high. There is a cost to hanging onto players too long to try and take every last penny off the table, the Coyotes are playing better lately as one example since Chych has been out of the line up, because its been a distraction. That is on the GM not Chych.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

The bolded above is a really good point that no one is talking about, thx YotesFan.

Our GM Bill Armstrong is a first time GM, he was involved in the Blues org for something crazy like 30 years or something, he started as a scout and worked his way up. He's a hockey lifer, one of those people who lives like a block away from the office and probably sleeps there half the time. Everyone in hockey respects him. But, this is the first time he's a GM.

Re: Chychrun, he's said the price publicly so many times literally everyone knows what Chychrun will cost to acquire. 2 firsts, and a second rounder or equivalent. It is known. So, if Bill settles for less of a return, literally no other GM will ever take him seriously in a trade ask for the rest of Bill's career.

So, Bill can't trade Chychrun for less than the original ask, he's basically backed himself into a corner. At this point he really doesn't have a choice

Maybe - and I'm just spitballing here, because I'm not a GM and probably never will be - GMBA shouldn't have telegraphed his demands everywhere in the first place. Maybe there's a difference between "here's what I'm looking for" and "here's what I'll settle for" and we don't know the 2nd part. Or maybe his ask really is what he claims it is and he might end up going to the GM graveyard holding out for it.

But when the market says "here's what we value your guy for" and 18 months later it's still less than what you think he's worth, at some point you have to acknowledge it. If your pride is so strong that you'll take nothing rather than what everyone else is offering, that's a 'you' problem. If GMBA is that worried about taking less and being taken advantage of the rest of his GM career, he shouldn't be a GM in the first place and should go back to the safety of amateur scouting.

 

[PainForShane]

The only thing that will hurt for the GM is his own ego after setting a price that is obviously too high after 18 months of shopping Chych. The market sets the value not the Coyotes GM. Other GMs are less likely to even try and make a deal with the Coyotes in the future because the ask in a trade is way too high. There is a cost to hanging onto players too long to try and take every last penny off the table, the Coyotes are playing better lately as one example since Chych has been out of the line up, because its been a distraction. That is on the GM not Chych.

Not really, we've made all sorts of deals the last year or so (including the Mayo / Weber one that cleared yesterday). Bill's unwillingness to lower the cost of Chychrun has nothing to do with his ability to make trades around the league regarding other players, he's been one of the more active GMs regardless of Chychrun.

If you're saying other GMs are less likely to try to haggle with Bill because they know he won't move off a high ask he originally set, yes that's true but like I argued above I think that's actually a good thing because it means we won't be taken advantage of in trade situations going forward. Kind of like the way everyone views Yzerman right now.

Anyway if Bill lowers his price now, everyone including all us keyboard warriors will know that Bill blinks first during negotiation. And then as an org we will be losing most trades going forward.

You can argue that Chych's asking price was originally set too high, that is a different argument tho. Point here is that because he's held on to the price for this long, he's basically committed to either getting it or keeping the player (like he's been saying he would do the entire time)

 

[wetcoast]

The only thing that will hurt for the GM is his own ego after setting a price that is obviously too high after 18 months of shopping Chych. The market sets the value not the Coyotes GM. Other GMs are less likely to even try and make a deal with the Coyotes in the future because the ask in a trade is way too high. There is a cost to hanging onto players too long to try and take every last penny off the table, the Coyotes are playing better lately as one example since Chych has been out of the line up, because its been a distraction. That is on the GM not Chych.

Pretty much this and it reminds me of several fantasy league owners I have dealt with in the past in many hockey pools.

They are just so unreasonable that after a while they aren't even worth talking to.

But I see that after all of the wait and holding Chycrun out that the Avs have moved Dustin Mayo in a franchise defining moment no doubt.

Shea Weber coming in is going to help them alot.

 

[rt]

Only the 30 that haven't traded for him in the last 18 months.

You are such a phony when you argue. Just pretending he didn’t get injured prior to the deadline and then have surgeries in the off-season. Nobody was trading for him until he came back. And it’s NOT the deadline yet.

You had a bad opinion and you’ve been desperately trying to reverse engineer it into credibility by using the least credible tactics. There’s stubborn and then there’s stubborn.

Pretty much this and it reminds me of several fantasy league owners I have dealt with in the past in many hockey pools.

They are just so unreasonable that after a while they aren't even worth talking to.

But I see that after all of the wait and holding Chycrun out that the Avs have moved Dustin Mayo in a franchise defining moment no doubt.

Shea Weber coming in is going to help them alot.

This post says a lot more than you think it does.

 

[wetcoast]

This post says a lot more than you think it does.

Touché.

 

[PainForShane]

Maybe - and I'm just spitballing here, because I'm not a GM and probably never will be - GMBA shouldn't have telegraphed his demands everywhere in the first place. Maybe there's a difference between "here's what I'm looking for" and "here's what I'll settle for" and we don't know the 2nd part. Or maybe his ask really is what he claims it is and he might end up going to the GM graveyard holding out for it.

But when the market says "here's what we value your guy for" and 18 months later it's still less than what you think he's worth, at some point you have to acknowledge it. If your pride is so strong that you'll take nothing rather than what everyone else is offering, that's a 'you' problem. If GMBA is that worried about taking less and being taken advantage of the rest of his GM career, he shouldn't be a GM in the first place and should go back to the safety of amateur scouting.

Yeah these are all fair points. But he's been telegraphing his ask so it's like... what is he supposed to do now. Today I mean. Given what's already happened.

And if your thought is, 'well, he should just lower the ask!!!' then I disagree, I think he should just keep the player. Because... it kind of makes sense for the org to keep the player anyway, we're rebuilding and what rebuilding team wouldn't want a 24 yo Jacob Chychrun as part of their blueline, you know? We don't need to trade him. And if trading him makes us a worse team then we shouldn't trade him either. And to this current point... if you need to lower the ask in order to trade him, and if that means other GMs will start taking advantage of you / take you less seriously (which I think would be true), well then imo you should absolutely not lower your ask and just keep him.

Put a different way, if the return's amazing then sure let's trade, but if not just keep the guy. That's kind of what Bill has been saying the whole time. And because he's telegraphed his ask for so long I think he's sort of stuck in the bed he's made, otherwise imo he risks losing credibility with the other GMs WRT future trades. And it's not like refusing to trade Chychrun means he has nothing (ie Eichel situation), it means he'd be keeping one of the top 5 or so young blueliners in the world.

But yeah, to your other point, idk I'm not a GM either, all of this is just speculation. But, I am ok with Bill holding on to his ask and I'd be ok if that means holding onto Chychrun too. I guess we'll see what happens!

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Re: loss of credibility - the bigger problem for him is if he continues to stick to his demand. While in theory it's good - everyone knows he's going to hold out for his asking price - it's also bad because it signals to other GMs "if his ask is unreasonable, there's no way you can do business with him because he's never backing off his ask." That will make GMs more leery of doing business with him in the future, because they might expect he's going to be unreasonable right off the bat so why bother. Or, they'll actively seek out only those situations where they can exploit him and he doesn't realize it just to stick it to him for his hardline stance in the other situations, which is even worse for him.

If Arizona doesn't need to trade him, why spend 18+ months talking about it? Why have him sitting out right now? It feels like someone said "trading Chychrun might be a great idea" and it snowballed from there. If there's not an offer, or there's not an offer remotely close to the ask and you really aren't trading him for anything less, then play him. If you're trying to trade him, the market has pretty well signaled its value: make your move already, because it's unlikely to get any better.

If he feels backed into a corner at this point, it's his own fault. At this point, he can either do what he thinks is best for the franchise or do what's best for his ego. Something's going to suffer either way, he needs to decide whether personal pride or duty to his team is more important - and if it's the former, he needs to be shit-canned immediately.

 

[rt]

The acquisition price for Chychrun is extremely reasonable and seems to have been met twice.

First, by Columbus at the draft. That ultimately fell through when Columbus brass requested a temp check from Chychrun camp and it came back cool. But the acquisition price was met. It wasn’t the price on Chychrun than killed the deal.

Just the weekend before last the Kings met the Chychrun price. As Friedman stated, it was a non-essential contract that killed the deal. Friedman stated AZ wanted to look at dumps as a separate transaction. Not a line-item on the cost of doing business. LA insiders have indicated this wasn’t Peterson. And BA himself just stated they had a deal before something changed. The speculation is its Walker. AZ wanted full compensation for that contract as a dump. That’s where the deal broke down. But the Chychrun price seems to have been met.

The equivalent of two 1sts and a 2nd is completely fair as an asking price.

 

[rt]

Re: loss of credibility - the bigger problem for him is if he continues to stick to his demand. While in theory it's good - everyone knows he's going to hold out for his asking price - it's also bad because it signals to other GMs "if his ask is unreasonable, there's no way you can do business with him because he's never backing off his ask." That will make GMs more leery of doing business with him in the future, because they might expect he's going to be unreasonable right off the bat so why bother. Or, they'll actively seek out only those situations where they can exploit him and he doesn't realize it just to stick it to him for his hardline stance in the other situations, which is even worse for him.

If Arizona doesn't need to trade him, why spend 18+ months talking about it? Why have him sitting out right now? It feels like someone said "trading Chychrun might be a great idea" and it snowballed from there. If there's not an offer, or there's not an offer remotely close to the ask and you really aren't trading him for anything less, then play him. If you're trying to trade him, the market has pretty well signaled its value: make your move already, because it's unlikely to get any better.

If he feels backed into a corner at this point, it's his own fault. At this point, he can either do what he thinks is best for the franchise or do what's best for his ego. Something's going to suffer either way, he needs to decide whether personal pride or duty to his team is more important - and if it's the former, he needs to be shit-canned immediately.

Yeah these are all fair points. But he's been telegraphing his ask so it's like... what is he supposed to do now. Today I mean. Given what's already happened.

And if your thought is, 'well, he should just lower the ask!!!' then I disagree, I think he should just keep the player. Because... it kind of makes sense for the org to keep the player anyway, we're rebuilding and what rebuilding team wouldn't want a 24 yo Jacob Chychrun as part of their blueline, you know? We don't need to trade him. And if trading him makes us a worse team then we shouldn't trade him either. And to this current point... if you need to lower the ask in order to trade him, and if that means other GMs will start taking advantage of you / take you less seriously (which I think would be true), well then imo you should absolutely not lower your ask and just keep him.

Put a different way, if the return's amazing then sure let's trade, but if not just keep the guy. That's kind of what Bill has been saying the whole time. And because he's telegraphed his ask for so long I think he's sort of stuck in the bed he's made, otherwise imo he risks losing credibility with the other GMs WRT future trades. And it's not like refusing to trade Chychrun means he has nothing (ie Eichel situation), it means he'd be keeping one of the top 5 or so young blueliners in the world.

But yeah, to your other point, idk I'm not a GM either, all of this is just speculation. But, I am ok with Bill holding on to his ask and I'd be ok if that means holding onto Chychrun too. I guess we'll see what happens!

I don’t think it’s anywhere near as complicated or dramatic as you guys are making it out to be.

Armstrong is confident that his price is fair and is confident that it will ultimately be met. I’m sure it would’ve been met if not for the injury at the last deadline, Chychrun playing Goldilocks on Columbus, or Blake trying to use a buy-one-get-one coupon on a contract dump.

The pressure of the deadline will clear this stuff up. It’s why they bubble wrapped Chychrun. They know if he’s healthy, they’ll get what they need.

I’m not worried about it at all.

 

[cobra427]

You are such a phony when you argue. Just pretending he didn’t get injured prior to the deadline and then have surgeries in the off-season. Nobody was trading for him until he came back. And it’s NOT the deadline yet.

You had a bad opinion and you’ve been desperately trying to reverse engineer it into credibility by using the least credible tactics. There’s stubborn and then there’s stubborn.


This post says a lot more than you think it does.

I'm a huge coyote fan and you know this but I am also realistic about value. True Chych has had injury issues but something is wrong with the value the GM is seeking. Chych has had a great year offensively, yet the GM still can't trade him(yet). He has had 18 months to figure it out. You act like the rest of the NHL, 30 other GMs are stupid and trying to under value Chych.

I hope the GM can get the 2 firsts and a good prospect for Chych without having to take cap back at the TDL. I think he gets less than that or we keep him and the circus continues this summer. This has been his ask for 18 months, Chcyh is killing it on offense this year.

Yet, he still hasn't gotten a deal done. Why? Because he is over valuing the asset. Chych is average to below on D, elite offensively, on a great contract, but has injury issues. You need a trade partner that has a solid top pairing on D so they can slot Chych in on the second or third pairing, and also has a need for a #1 PP QB. For that, you have to give up a lot of your future.

Bottom line is that the buying field narrows because of the usage some what but also because of the price and the injury risk. I hope I am wrong and we get what the GM is asking for, I'll be the first to admit it and be happy for it as well.

 

[kingsfan28]

How good of shape is he? Chychrun may be looking at 2-3 weeks of not playing and thats if they even let him practice.

 

[xVolchenkov]

The acquisition price for Chychrun is extremely reasonable and seems to have been met twice.

First, by Columbus at the draft. That ultimately fell through when Columbus brass requested a temp check from Chychrun camp and it came back cool. But the acquisition price was met. It wasn’t the price on Chychrun than killed the deal.

Just the weekend before last the Kings met the Chychrun price. As Friedman stated, it was a non-essential contract that killed the deal. Friedman stated AZ wanted to look at dumps as a separate transaction. Not a line-item on the cost of doing business. LA insiders have indicated this wasn’t Peterson. And BA himself just stated they had a deal before something changed. The speculation is its Walker. AZ wanted full compensation for that contract as a dump. That’s where the deal broke down. But the Chychrun price seems to have been met.

The equivalent of two 1sts and a 2nd is completely fair as an asking price.

I feel like all that proves is that teams were willing to come to an agreement, not that it was the exact price BA was asking and that he didn't budge on it.

 

[hbk]

How good of shape is he? Chychrun may be looking at 2-3 weeks of not playing and thats if they even let him practice.

Google Chychrun seated box jumps. The guy is in shape. Probably the fittest person on the Coyotoes and I'm not sure that its close.

Just watching Jakob Chychrun's box jump will make your legs hurt | NHL.com

Coyotes defensemen posted video of training session with impressive feat

www.nhl.com

 

[finkelsteinberg]

How good of shape is he? Chychrun may be looking at 2-3 weeks of not playing and thats if they even let him practice.

He's known to be incredibly ripped and a gym rat with an insane diet. He also practiced yesterday. I would imagine he could ramp up quickly.

 

[Kegs]

He's known to be incredibly ripped and a gym rat with an insane diet. He also practiced yesterday. I would imagine he could ramp up quickly.

He seemed fine when he came back from injury. Guys very very talented.

 

[Schemp]

I don’t think it’s anywhere near as complicated or dramatic as you guys are making it out to be.

Armstrong is confident that his price is fair and is confident that it will ultimately be met. I’m sure it would’ve been met if not for the injury at the last deadline, Chychrun playing Goldilocks on Columbus, or Blake trying to use a buy-one-get-one coupon on a contract dump.

The pressure of the deadline will clear this stuff up. It’s why they bubble wrapped Chychrun. They know if he’s healthy, they’ll get what they need.

I’m not worried about it at all.

I'm not so sure if it's confidence. I still believe that GMBA would rather keep Chychrun than trade him. If the offers aren't there (meaning offers that don't improve the Coyotes long term into the type of team GMBA envisions) then why bother. I can see him meeting up with Chychrun during the off-season between the lottery and the draft to discuss the future. The arena would be decided by then, the draft order would be set (wouldn't surprise me if they trade their 1st, but I definitely don't expect it and it would have to be extremely beneficial for the team). I can see Armstrong telling Chychrun that other GMs don't value JC as high as the Coyotes do because of their poor offers and he hopes that Chychrun changes his mind and he'll do want he can this off-season to improve the Coyotes chances to make the playoffs.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I'm not so sure if it's confidence. I still believe that GMBA would rather keep Chychrun than trade him. If the offers aren't there (meaning offers that don't improve the Coyotes long term into the type of team GMBA envisions) then why bother. I can see him meeting up with Chychrun during the off-season between the lottery and the draft to discuss the future. The arena would be decided by then, the draft order would be set (wouldn't surprise me if they trade their 1st, but I definitely don't expect it and it would have to be extremely beneficial for the team). I can see Armstrong telling Chychrun that other GMs don't value JC as high as the Coyotes do because of their poor offers and he hopes that Chychrun changes his mind and he'll do want he can this off-season to improve the Coyotes chances to make the playoffs.

Maybe GMBA would rather keep Chychrun, but in that case, healthy scratching him till the TDL just sends the wrong message to both Chychrun and the fans. If the intent is to keep him, then just keep playing him till an "acceptable" offer is presented. If such an offer is not made, it's not like Chychrun has many options.

 

[Schemp]

Maybe GMBA would rather keep Chychrun, but in that case, healthy scratching him till the TDL just sends the wrong message to both Chychrun and the fans. If the intent is to keep him, then just keep playing him till an "acceptable" offer is presented. If such an offer is not made, it's not like Chychrun has many options.

It has always been about keeping Chychrun happy and most Coyote fans have accepted the tank as the best way to move the franchise to an eventual contender. Also, even though it hasn't been reported, the decision to sit JC was agree to by both parties. This is obvious by anyone that knows these 2.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

It has always been about keeping Chychrun happy and most Coyote fans have accepted the tank as the best way to move the franchise to an eventual contender. Also, even though it hasn't been reported, the decision to sit JC was agree to by both parties. This is obvious by anyone that knows these 2.

So if the idea is to keep Chychrun happy, wouldn't it be better to move him for the best offer by a specific timeline? Like last TDL, this TDL or even this upcoming off-season?