Speculation: Jakob Chychrun being held out of the Coyotes lineup until a trade is completed

[hbk]

practicing today. Maybe? plays this week for AZ.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Your first paragraph is so stupid. How old are you? Hell, your entire post is

Chychrun plays about 56 games a season. AZ plays without him quite often.

Karlsson retained to 8-9 & SJ taking Cal @ 5 for 2 years back, which is shorter & less real money for Karlsson puts Erik at a 3-4M effective cap hit for the King's. Karlsson is better signed longer & would probably cost less than the ask on Chychrun.

Getting Fiala, who is sitting at 40 assists right now, a center that can finish better than Lizotte is a bigger improvement than the impact Chychrun would have.

Feel free to argue any of these points. It's ok, I'm used to people not liking my point of view & having difficultly debating them.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Daly on McCowan podcast
On players sitting out.

He said it’s not the norm, and if it becomes a trend, he believes then it would be discussed with GM’s, but with 2 teams it’s not a trend yet.

 

[Curufinwe]

If the league doesn't like it, they should bring the trade deadline forward.

 

[threeVo]

 

[Osprey]

AZ isn't missing Chychrun one bit. Makes sense because they're used to him missing time. Makes me wonder about his overall impact.

A week ago, you pointed out to me how well LA played last season while Doughty was injured. Does that also make you wonder about Doughty's overall impact?

 

[rt]

 

[MBH]

Hasn't turned 25 yet.
What the f***?
He could be a great defenseman for 7-8 more years.
Why, exactly, doesn't he fit a rebuild?
Other than the fact that this mofo is probably hitting the road to get the f*** out of dodge the first chance he gets.
Even then, I'd wait until the deadline before UFA to make that call.

 

[Schemp]

Hasn't turned 25 yet.
What the f***?
He could be a great defenseman for 7-8 more years.
Why, exactly, doesn't he fit a rebuild?
Other than the fact that this mofo is probably hitting the road to get the f*** out of dodge the first chance he gets.
Even then, I'd wait until the deadline before UFA to make that call.

You're buying into the wrong narrative. He is available, not he is being actively shopped. He doesn't want to go through a rebuild and things atm could change with a lottery win. Chychrun has said he wants to play for a contender and expects the Coyotes to get what GMBA expects, a haul. Everything else that you've heard is just rhetoric and hearsay, hoping to drive the price down or just plain trolling. He gets along great as a teammate, likes Arizona, no problems with management, he just wants to play meaningful games and a chance to win. I can see him saying screw it, if no team steps up by the trade deadline and the Coyotes making the team better in the off-season.

 

[ck26]

Hasn't turned 25 yet.
What the f***?
He could be a great defenseman for 7-8 more years.
Why, exactly, doesn't he fit a rebuild?
Other than the fact that this mofo is probably hitting the road to get the f*** out of dodge the first chance he gets.
Even then, I'd wait until the deadline before UFA to make that call.

He does if he wants to stick around through it.

Also, because he's signed on such a good contract (less than 5m) for multiple seasons, his value to a cap-strapped contender is f***ing massive. If you're a top pairing defenseman away from winning the Cup, Chychrun is the one #top pairing guy who both fits under your cap and may still have room to grow.

That value is lost on a rebuilding team ... Coyotes don't care about the cap right now. And by the time the Coyotes are ready to compete, Chychrun is in the last year of his deal / is a UFA and may well get his salary doubled.

Chychrun, at this age and with this contract, is extremely valuable, but he's less valuable to the Coyotes than he would be to a contender. So it's smart business to cash in that asset now to get something a Cup contender doesn't care at all about -- 19 year old prospects and future draft picks.

 

[Mosby]

Chychrun plays about 56 games a season. AZ plays without him quite often.

Karlsson retained to 8-9 & SJ taking Cal @ 5 for 2 years back, which is shorter & less real money for Karlsson puts Erik at a 3-4M effective cap hit for the King's. Karlsson is better signed longer & would probably cost less than the ask on Chychrun.

Getting Fiala, who is sitting at 40 assists right now, a center that can finish better than Lizotte is a bigger improvement than the impact Chychrun would have.

Feel free to argue any of these points. It's ok, I'm used to people not liking my point of view & having difficultly debating them.

Does the 56 games a season taken into account the shortened seasons when everyone else also played fewer games?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Does the 56 games a season taken into account the shortened seasons when everyone else also played fewer games?

He has played 373 out of 511 Arizona games (went with 70 and 56 games for Covid years) plus 57 this year.
Which is 59.8 games over 82 .
Available 73% for his career.

Also missed 26 games one year in junior.

 

[Mosby]

He has played 373 out of 511 Arizona games (went with 70 and 56 games for Covid years) plus 57 this year.
Which is 59.8 games over 82 .
Available 73% for his career.

Also missed 26 games one year in junior.

Fair. Thanks for running the numbers.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Chych will make almost any team better. In AZ, his situation has likely been a distraction for the team, and without him, the team is coming together more, they are playing better. That isn't a knock on Chych, it's on the GM for taking 18 months so far to try and trade him, there is a cost in trying to get every last penny for an asset. The GM has waited too long and is likely to get less of a return like he did with OEL, had to include Garland to get it done a year later.

Chych doesn't get top pairing minutes in AZ, he doesn't face the other teams top line generally or get much in the way of PP minutes, he is average to below on D. An ideal situation is for Chych to play even strength on your second or third pairing and get #1PP minutes. That is his best fit and his best utilization. Given the price of futures the GM is asking for, I don't think LA is a likely landing spot because Blake won't give up the futures needed to get this trade completed and LA isn't a win now team, they are still a year or two away from the WCF, Chych won't put them over the top. The more likely landing spot is a win now team like the Oilers with a GM on the hot seat.

Dude, I know you're a Coyotes fan. I know you watch the games. This sounds like it came from a jaded Leafs fan who thinks that Arizona should just get moved to a good ol hockey loving place like Quebec already. Chychrun absolutely gets top minutes, does face top competition (admittedly not as much as others but he still does) and he gets tons of PP time because that's part of where he's good. I'm genuinely not sure how you even came to these conclusions after being a fan of the team.

In terms of ice time, he's 32nd in the league and 1st on the Coyotes in how much he gets, he's at 38% of possible ice time. Makar is 1st at 44%. He's 19th at EVTOI/GP, 30th at PPTOI/GP. He sees tons of time on the PP, being 23rd at 64% in percent possible ice time. You are correct that he spends very little time on the PK, but given that he spends a lot of time on ice during OT, I don't think that's a clear indication at least of his defensive value.

Offensively he's 23rd in On Ice Goals%, 31st on Corsi, 42nd on Fenwick, 2nd (1st being Ghost) in Off Ice expected Goals For (meaning the team scores much less when he's not on the ice), 7th in Expected Goals,

Combine that with age and contract and it's easy to see why GM's want him. Like it are not all of those stats are indicative that he has 1st pairing value and is a top defenseman.

All of this should be evident if you watch the games, since when he plays our offense runs through him and Ghost and that's not surprising and he gets plenty of time on the PP and ice in general.

Whether or not BA is f***ing up by not settling for less is a separate discussion, but Chychrun is absolutely a top pairing D and very good on the PP and at even strength.

 

[MBH]

He does if he wants to stick around through it.

Also, because he's signed on such a good contract (less than 5m) for multiple seasons, his value to a cap-strapped contender is f***ing massive. If you're a top pairing defenseman away from winning the Cup, Chychrun is the one #top pairing guy who both fits under your cap and may still have room to grow.

That value is lost on a rebuilding team ... Coyotes don't care about the cap right now. And by the time the Coyotes are ready to compete, Chychrun is in the last year of his deal / is a UFA and may well get his salary doubled.

Chychrun, at this age and with this contract, is extremely valuable, but he's less valuable to the Coyotes than he would be to a contender. So it's smart business to cash in that asset now to get something a Cup contender doesn't care at all about -- 19 year old prospects and future draft picks.

If the value is so massive, where's the big deal?
Where was it last year? Where is it this year?

Personally, I thought LA should go for him last year.
They have more prospects than they can develop. Use team intell to determine which prospects have higher trade value than potential, move them out for Chychrun.
Going out and getting Fiala when they already had Arvidsson struck me as a strange move.

 

[Chainshot]

Daly on McCowan podcast
On players sitting out.

He said it’s not the norm, and if it becomes a trend, he believes then it would be discussed with GM’s, but with 2 teams it’s not a trend yet.

It's now at three - Gavrikov and Schenn makes three.

 

[FSL KINGS]

A week ago, you pointed out to me how well LA played last season while Doughty was injured. Does that also make you wonder about Doughty's overall impact?

Sure, King's have a good mix of shutdown guys & offensive guys. Do they need Doughty to be successful in the playoffs? That's a legitimate question. Might be a good debate. Blake isn't moving him though.

Doughty is also the best D on the team. Is Chychrun the best D on the Coyotes?

Does the 56 games a season taken into account the shortened seasons when everyone else also played fewer games?

Think when I did the average I left off the shortened season. The average was right around the 56 games of the shortened season, so that wouldn't move the number a lot if included or kicked out.

 

[mouser]

Chychrun plays about 56 games a season. AZ plays without him quite often.

Karlsson retained to 8-9 & SJ taking Cal @ 5 for 2 years back, which is shorter & less real money for Karlsson puts Erik at a 3-4M effective cap hit for the King's. Karlsson is better signed longer & would probably cost less than the ask on Chychrun.

Getting Fiala, who is sitting at 40 assists right now, a center that can finish better than Lizotte is a bigger improvement than the impact Chychrun would have.

Feel free to argue any of these points. It's ok, I'm used to people not liking my point of view & having difficultly debating them.

You‘re likely underestimating the cost to dump Petersen in any trade.

 

[cobra427]

Dude, I know you're a Coyotes fan. I know you watch the games. This sounds like it came from a jaded Leafs fan who thinks that Arizona should just get moved to a good ol hockey loving place like Quebec already. Chychrun absolutely gets top minutes, does face top competition (admittedly not as much as others but he still does) and he gets tons of PP time because that's part of where he's good. I'm genuinely not sure how you even came to these conclusions after being a fan of the team.

In terms of ice time, he's 32nd in the league and 1st on the Coyotes in how much he gets, he's at 38% of possible ice time. Makar is 1st at 44%. He's 19th at EVTOI/GP, 30th at PPTOI/GP. He sees tons of time on the PP, being 23rd at 64% in percent possible ice time. You are correct that he spends very little time on the PK, but given that he spends a lot of time on ice during OT, I don't think that's a clear indication at least of his defensive value.

Offensively he's 23rd in On Ice Goals%, 31st on Corsi, 42nd on Fenwick, 2nd (1st being Ghost) in Off Ice expected Goals For (meaning the team scores much less when he's not on the ice), 7th in Expected Goals,

Combine that with age and contract and it's easy to see why GM's want him. Like it are not all of those stats are indicative that he has 1st pairing value and is a top defenseman.

All of this should be evident if you watch the games, since when he plays our offense runs through him and Ghost and that's not surprising and he gets plenty of time on the PP and ice in general.

Whether or not BA is f***ing up by not settling for less is a separate discussion, but Chychrun is absolutely a top pairing D and very good on the PP and at even strength.

So what is your point exactly? Chych isn't going to face the toughest assignments against other teams top lines, he doesn't on the Coyotes and he won't with his next team if they are a good team. The reason is his D play is average or below. He isn't prime OEL, he is closer to Yandle. Chych is great on offence, your stats don't prove anything other than that.

 

[FSL KINGS]

You‘re likely underestimating the cost to dump Petersen in any trade.

Yes & no, E. Karlsson owed 11.5, 11, 9, 7.5 in real $. Even with retained salary that is much more than Cal's contract. A team getting out of a longer more expensive contract that isn't going to be a cap team for the next two years may not care that much & be happy with the return for the player. Even if they want paid a substantial amount for the dump, it's probably still less than AZ's ask.

 

[mouser]

Yes & no, E. Karlsson owed 11.5, 11, 9, 7.5 in real $. Even with retained salary that is much more than Cal's contract. A team getting out of a longer more expensive contract that isn't going to be a cap team for the next two years may not care that much & be happy with the return for the player. Even if they want paid a substantial amount for the dump, it's probably still less than AZ's ask.

And Karlsson retained to $8-9m as you proposed is a solid contract. While Petersen at $5m is an albatross.

A more equitable proposal would be something like Karlsson unretained with Petersen coming back in return. That roughly balances out Karlsson and Petersen both being overpaid by about $10m on their contracts.

 

[toddkaz]

Daly on McCowan podcast
On players sitting out.

He said it’s not the norm, and if it becomes a trend, he believes then it would be discussed with GM’s, but with 2 teams it’s not a trend yet.

You mean 3 teams and everyone tanking for Bedard.

 

[rt]

What sort of sanctions should the NHL place on the Canucks? The game of hockey can’t be expected to survive the loss of Luke Schenn for ten days. Somebody must pay.

 

[Dead Coyote]

So what is your point exactly? Chych isn't going to face the toughest assignments against other teams top lines, he doesn't on the Coyotes and he won't with his next team if they are a good team. The reason is his D play is average or below. He isn't prime OEL, he is closer to Yandle. Chych is great on offence, your stats don't prove anything other than that.

Corsi and Fenwick and On Ice GF/GA% are actually also indicative of defensive play, to a degree- Chychrun is alright at defendin without the puck,, but he's great at moving the puck out and creating a transition play. He isn't as good as Prime OEL, for sure. But he is only 24, has been playing on a lot worse teams than OEL was, and hopefully is only going to get better, because while OEL was fine for a lot of years, he eventually became an even worse Yandle- coincidentally pretty soon after he turned 25! Which no doubt was initially probably mostly because of Tippett, but never got better. It doesn't really matter though. He's paid half of what OEL was, and at that point of time I would've asked for the same thing for OEL that we all want from Chychrun.

Anyways my point was to mostly point out that you were wrong about several things you asserted in your initial post. So yeah. It's really really hard to quantify quality of competition, and Chychrun hasn't played a ton of games so it's even harder to quantify because there's no good /60 or /GP stats for it. But with all that said, Chychrun actually did have a really high quality of competition before last year.

 

[Golden_Jet]

What sort of sanctions should the NHL place on the Canucks? The game of hockey can’t be expected to survive the loss of Luke Schenn for ten days. Somebody must pay.

Lol. It’s not even a day yet, it will be less than Chychurn today even he sits to TDL.