Expexting him to overtake Chabot as a rookie is a pretty high expectation. I’d agree with the modification to second pairing left defenseman.
Prospect Info: Jake Sanderson (D) PART 2
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Expexting him to overtake Chabot as a rookie is a pretty high expectation. I’d agree with the modification to second pairing left defenseman.
I'm trying to get a handle on Jake's offensive development. Can someone attempt to convert his point totals from this season (14 pts in 20 games) in the NCHC to the OHL? It's a league I'm more familiar with.
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Agent Zub
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Micklebot
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Not something I usually try to do, but others have tried, here;s volmans effort, albeit from a couple years back
So I guess multiply by 1.36?
meaning 14 pts becomes 19 in 20 prorated to a typical 65 game season would be about 62 pts in 65 games?
Sens of Anarchy
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There are ppg conversion numbers.. I do not recall the exact multiplier but he would have more points / game in the OHL. That info is available somewhere
Thanks. Yah, I'm just looking for estimates. Had a feeling he would look like a PPG or just shy D-man in the O so you are helping confirm that suspicion.
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SlapJack
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It wouldn't be a mistake to get Sanderson signed and let him have a taste of the NHL for the last 6 or 7 games of the season. Some players need extra seasoning at college, but Jake could walk into the NHL right now, be one of the best skaters in the league, and play solid defense. The offense will come, these things don't have to happen in lower leagues.
Many point to Makar and Hughes as success stories by leaving them in college for 2 years post draft, but McAvoy and Werenski worked out fine as well. Other notable recent top picks also stepped in as teens like Heiskenen, Sergachev and Chychrun, and they all turned out ok. Byram is progressing in Colorado.
If you're mentally ready with good size and have solid D fundamentals, the base is there. Sanderson might be on the lanky side right now, but I think he's close enough physically.
Going back to UND and dominating college and the WJC isn't necessarily the best option. Hell, he might end up finishing THIS year with a WJC gold and NCAA championship while being a key part of both those wins. Next year he can go back and be the guy but those teams fall short. ND will not be as strong next year and the chances of the US repeating are probably less.
Sanderson is continually given challenges and getting better exponentially. If he didn't go pro until the end of next year, it won't be the worst thing, but I have a feeling he'll be in Ottawa at the end of April.
Many point to Makar and Hughes as success stories by leaving them in college for 2 years post draft, but McAvoy and Werenski worked out fine as well. Other notable recent top picks also stepped in as teens like Heiskenen, Sergachev and Chychrun, and they all turned out ok. Byram is progressing in Colorado.
If you're mentally ready with good size and have solid D fundamentals, the base is there. Sanderson might be on the lanky side right now, but I think he's close enough physically.
Going back to UND and dominating college and the WJC isn't necessarily the best option. Hell, he might end up finishing THIS year with a WJC gold and NCAA championship while being a key part of both those wins. Next year he can go back and be the guy but those teams fall short. ND will not be as strong next year and the chances of the US repeating are probably less.
Sanderson is continually given challenges and getting better exponentially. If he didn't go pro until the end of next year, it won't be the worst thing, but I have a feeling he'll be in Ottawa at the end of April.
You've hit the nail on the head here. There isn't a one size fits all model and there are shining examples both ways.
One thing that I think tilts in Jake's favour to turn pro earlier is the D aspect. Hr excels at what is typically the hardest part to transition. If he's strong enough, i hope we see him here next season
BondraTime
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Without a guarantee of 10 games it's highly unlikely he'd sign. He and his camp will be asking for a push of his ELC, and this year he'd need to play 10 games, whereas next April he needs a single game.
Not to mention no playoffs for either Ottawa or Belleville to jump into.
Micklebot
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I'm not quite understanding the ELC push factor here, if he opts to sign this year and misses the 10 game threshold, he likely still ends up using the first year of his ELC next season. What advantage does he really get by waiting till next April to sign, either he wants another year in college or he doesn't, from a purely contractual/financial perspective i don't really see much advantage in holding off.
Also, isn't the 10 game elc slide requirement prorated this year? I had just assumed it would be...
BondraTime
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If he signs this year and it slides, the team has the option of letting it slide another year, like Brannstrom's was. If he signs next April, he burns a year, stays at UND, has much more leverage regarding his playing status, there is no option of letting it slide that season.
Whatever the prorated slide is, the Sens wouldn't cross the threshold, they'd send him down as soon as it was met.
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Dan Patrick
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I think im happy either way. If Sanderson thinks he's ready to turn pro and/or wants to turn pro with JBD and Pinto then by all means let him. I don't think the organization is going to pigeon hole him into a top 4 role in the NHL right away and if he turned Pro he should be doing it with the understanding he's likely spending some time in the AHL. I still think there are good arguments to be made, regarding his development, to send him back to college next year. I think he stays at UND for another year but it's a good place to be in to be arguing about whether a prospect is too good for the NCAA at 19.
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Sanderson has good height, but I'd still like him to put on more muscle before playing against NHLers. An extra 5-10 pounds of muscle goes a long way to help protect against serious injuries (even if only to lessen the severity of said injuries).
Tap on the Ankle
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Is this adjusted for age? I've seen stuff like this for AHL->NHL production before and there was a big dropoff in the ppg conversion after age 19-20.
PPG of 2005 and later top 10 draft picks in their NCAA rookie year:
J Johnson: 0.84
Hughes: 0.78
Makar: 0.78
Trouba 0.78
Werenski: 0.71
Sanderson: 0.70
Hanifin: 0.62
Lee: 0.61
E Johnson: 0.58
He stacks up pretty well here. I don't expect him to be as productive as Hughes and Makar but if he can match Hanifin's while being rock solid defensively then that's a fine, if unexciting, 1st pairing dman. Anything more is gravy.
Micklebot
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I suppose the difference is i don't see the sens having any interest in not having him up for 10+ games next year, in fact I fully expect him to be a regular in the lineup.
Also, i did check, 7 games is the threshold for this year.
BondraTime
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I think it would be more on the side of Sanderson to want guaranteed NHL spot. If they guarantee him an NHL spot right away, and that he will get into 8 games, it's a real possibility.
It's great and all if he plays in Ottawa from the start, but Sanderson and his camp will want to remove the AHL from the equation. Sanderson should not need a stint in the AHL, especially looking at the team.
Should he spend 50% of his time next year in the NHL, he'd make about 200k more than he would should he sign with Ottawa in April and play 15 games, not taking into account bugetary taxi squad or what have you (don't think that would effect him mind you).
Signing in April puts the ball firmly in Sanderson and his agents court to dictate negotiations. NCAA players gain leverage the longer they stay, in the case of Sanderson he is a 2 year guy max, that 2nd year tilts the scales incredibly hard toward his side. Sanderson has the leverage now, he's just missing the ELC slide. Next year his side has all the leverage.
He knows what he can do, he put up 14 points thus far, and he has seen his game leap to a new level over the past 2 months. Similar to last year, he has begun to take off near the end of the season.
Putting in a full year with this rather than jumping from one league to another should be able to help him get some added consistency and added confidence. The last thing we, or Sanderson, should want is for his confidence in making the offensive plays and jumping into the play take a back seat. We want him to develop that part of his game. The best place for him to do that is the NCAA as a 19 year old.
Look at Wahlstrom, signed after his 18 year old season, played a few games in the AHL that season, then played his 9 games in the NHL the next season and was sent back to the AHL to push his ELC back another year. In a normal year, Wahlstrom could have signed his ELC this past April, played his few games to close the year, and be nearing the end of his 2nd year of his ELC rather than stuck on his 1st.
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DJB
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I've been sitting on this thought for a while now...but the heck with it.
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Alf Silfversson
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My preferences once we took Stützle were Raymond (we didn't get the chance and he's looking good to very good) and Drysdale (he's looking fantastic) so I was disappointed when we got Sanderson. But he's been excellent this year and should be a very good player for us. All these guys are still 18-19 year old players too. So much room to grow and improve.
At this point I don't care about being right or wrong, so long as we get a stud D out of the draft.
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