Every argument you made is dismantled by an aspect of my post that you chose not to reference.
You're not really not understanding what you've done wrong, eh?
You mean nothing? If I have done something wrong, I would appreciate it if someone would prove it. I'll be waiting.
You are attempting to convince people that two shots from the blue line:
1) a 1-on-2 shot where a player is just lobbing it on net to complete a line-change
and
2) a point shot with heavy traffic in front of the net
No, I'm not arguing any of that.
Here's what I'm arguing: more shots result in more goals. Here's what you're inferring: every shot is created equal.
are one in the same, in terms of their likeliness to result in a goal (shooting percentage)
I referenced scoring chances
in the post you're responding to, and I explicitly discussed the differing shooting-percentages based on area; I am (clearly!) not arguing that every shot results in an identical Sh%. I'm well aware of the quantitative and qualitative difference between events (both the one's shown by scoring chances, and the one's not).
This is precisely what you have been suggesting this entire time and exactly what is inferred by that silly chart.
'That silly chart'? The scoring chances chart? First of all, the chart cannot infer anything- you do know that it's an inanimate object? It's a chart, Bomber... it's a
CHART- and secondly, I haven't been suggesting anything of the sort. This is taken directly from the post you responded to:
91Kadri91 said:
They're not symmetrical, and no one is suggesting they are. What I'm stating is that a negative event (and the outcome of said event) will either be reflected in Corsi/Fenwick/Shot+Scoring Chance/High-Danger Scoring Chance or Corsi/Fenwick/Shot+Goal/Goal Against.
The only thing 'differentiating situations' could result in is the ability to better predict future GF% (and consequently future Win%), since there will never be a better indicator of Win% (that isn't Win%) than GF%.
They (situational differentiation statistics) won't do a better job of determining an individual player's current performance, they'll just help determine what kind of player said player is, and how they may (potentially) perform in the future (which seems to be of no interest to you).
I'm sorry but this is just not how the game works in real-life.
I'm well aware that there are nuances of the game that statistics don't capture, but they're nuances that no one can reasonable capture (unless you track every event in a game, which isn't publicly available data yet). They are also nuances that are reflected in aggregate goal for/against metrics.
You're inferring from my posts that I believe Corsi, Fenwick, Shots and Scoring Chances are the greatest statistical options that will ever be, even though I have not stated that in any of my posts. I have claimed that they're the best options we have (currently) for what they do (predict future GF; give us an idea of how a player will perform YoY), but they're
far from perfect.
The problem here is that you're rebutting arguments that you've created.
That's exactly what you are suggesting using this silly little chart of yours.
You're implying that since X and Y shots are both shot at Z location, X and Y are as likely to score as the other, based on the spatial proximity on the ice.
No, I'm not implying that. The chart suggests that a shot from location X (based on proximity to the net) is more likely to enter the net than a shot from location Y; it makes no conclusion about different shots from a specific location. It doesn't even
try to make a claim about different types of shots.
All it's saying is that a shot from location 'X' is more likely to go in than a shot from location 'Y', and they're right.
Maybe you don't understand what you are inferring by posting that chart, but that's exactly what you are doing.
I don't
infer anything (I
can't) by posting those charts. At
best, I'm
implying something. Of course, I didn't imply anything either.
You asked for the 'science' behind SC, and I provided it: the idea behind it is that shots from location X enter the net at a higher percentage than shots from location Y (which they do).
You are treating all shots the same. And you are penalizing the players on the ice who scored the point shot and rewarding the player who spammed the shot in.
Uh, no, the player who scored the point shot receives a GF60 (more indicative of current contributions to winning than any other individual statistic will ever be) and, at worst, a + Corsi, Fenwick and Shot. They could also receive a SCF if the shot was taken from 'centre-point'.
I won't even call you a moron for it, either. I'm completely tolerant and willing to help those who are uneducated in statistics and hockey.
That's good; you need a
lot of help.
What ridiculous claims did I make about it, exactly?
I said that Gardiner suppresses scoring chances (fact), that scoring chances (and corsi, and fenwick, and shots) is a better predictor of future GF than current GF is (also a fact), and that a puck from position 'X' on the ice will go in more often than a puck from position 'Y' in terms of percentage (also a fact).
These 'ridiculous' claims you're complaining about are claims conjured by you to create an argument nobody was, or wants to be, making.
That's the problem, dear. It's all done a bit too simply. There's no real method, or science involved, isn't there?
I'll just ignore the glaring double negative, and argue the point I know you were
trying to make (pesky English language, amirite?).
There is a science behind it (I, and many others, have provided you with it), and it's really quite simple. Possession metrics like Fenwick and Corsi correlate (moderately) to future GF%, while current GF% does not. People use Scoring Chances, Corsi and Fenwick, because GF% does not help determine what future Win% may be; the sample of total goals is simply too small for there to be any YoY reliability and in-season predictive value. Essentially, possession metrics are a better indicator of what a player will be (and could be) than any statistic currently available (publicly).
The possession and shot statistics, meanwhile, are significantly more repeatable and predictive because the sample is significantly larger. They're the closest we come to possessing a perfectly valid (moderate correlation to Pt%) and reliable (moderate YoY) statistic.
Here's a link (which I already posted) showing the correlation between a myriad of statistics and Pt/Win%:
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/10/4508094/what-statistics-are-meaningful-in-a-given-season-corsi-fenwick-PDO-hits-fights-blocked-shots
Sorry but I really don't have the time to address the rest of your post. It's all very repetitive and circular.
Sure thing, kid.