TSN: Jake Gardiner or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Advanced Stats

[Swayze*]

There is the debate on advanced stats. Some look at it as irrefutable fact for what it shows about a player and how good he is at something and that all variables are accounted for. Others say it is interesting but doesn't prove how good he is because there are too many variables that cannot possibly be accounted for.
Interpretation is up to you to decide what it means to you and what it shows.

I just mean that particular stat seems to be complete garbage

Claiming he's got the 2nd best GA60reltm is absolutely bogus.

All stats aren't created equally obviously

 

[Gallagbi]

Take another look at video maybe I will too (as I had a few) but I think wheeler took puck on cross over at full speed at top of circle skating toward the faceoff dot. Then Gardiner face plants and then it is an easy 2 on 0. Either way he has to do something either take the skater or the other guy. Force the play. What he did was nothing. Again it was mind mogling stuff for an nhl defence to do nothing.

Wheeler is angled to the dot by Gardiner, he doesn't randomly beer off that way.

Gardiner forces him to the outside and goes down to block the pass. Pretty common way to play a 2on1

 

[YOYOTCROSTER*]

Are you guys all stats guys? Is there any other hockey people on here? Maybe I need to split this scene. How can you all say there was nothing anyone could do?

On any 2 on 1 you have to eliminate one guy period. You absolutely can't have a 2 on 0 result from a 2 on 1. This is what is mind boggling to me with your collective thinking. Maybe this is the new computer generation and stats people talk. I dunno know.

 

[Swayze*]

Wheeler is angled to the dot by Gardiner, he doesn't randomly beer off that way.

Gardiner forces him to the outside and goes down to block the pass. Pretty common way to play a 2on1

yeah it worked well

 

[YOYOTCROSTER*]

Easy there easy what you said it not true. Gardiner stays in middle the entire time. He does not force anybody. He then falls down. Wheeler skates to dot on his own momentum after the crossover. Please do not start making things up as you go to defend someone. Gardiner TOOK no one out of that play.

 

[Gallagbi]

Are you guys all stats guys? Is there any other hockey people on here? Maybe I need to split this scene. How can you all say there was nothing anyone could do?

On any 2 on 1 you have to eliminate one guy period. You absolutely can't have a 2 on 0 result from a 2 on 1. This is what is mind boggling to me with your collective thinking. Maybe this is the new computer generation and stats people talk. I dunno know.

Wheeler is effectively eliminated. He has a pass option and not much else.

 

[Nithoniniel]

It was a terrific play by Winnipeg. Whatever decision Gardiner takes, they played him into a position where he is slowed down and have to handle a puck-carrier coming with speed. He chose to try a slide to prevent the pass. Any other choice would likely be just as futile considering the execution of the offensive play. It should be a non-issue. Interestingly, that was how it was treated in media.

If there are any issues at all in that sequence, it's that he was left alone for quite some time.

 

[RLF]

I just mean that particular stat seems to be complete garbage

Claiming he's got the 2nd best GA60reltm is absolutely bogus.

All stats aren't created equally obviously

I wouldn't say it is garbage, it is only one piece of a huge puzzle though. Typically one stat(variable) affects another. Personally, stats interest me, but I have always preferred to watch the game and evaluate that way. Stats can help shed some light on some area's hard to see with just the eye.

I look at it this way. In math, 2+2 is always 4. It is an absolute. In ADV stats, 2+2 may mostly be 4, or should be 4, but sometimes it is 3.5 or 4.2. Like teams with good possession that don't win. Statistically they should, but they don't always...too many variables that can affect an outcome. That is why I see it as interesting and not absolute fact/proof, because there are no absolutes.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I wouldn't say it is garbage, it is only one piece of a huge puzzle though. Typically one stat(variable) affects another. Personally, stats interest me, but I have always preferred to watch the game and evaluate that way. Stats can help shed some light on some area's hard to see with just the eye.

I look at it this way. In math, 2+2 is always 4. It is an absolute. In ADV stats, 2+2 may mostly be 4, or should be 4, but sometimes it is 3.5 or 4.2. Like teams with good possession that don't win. Statistically they should, but they don't always...too many variables that can affect an outcome. That is why I see it as interesting and not absolute fact/proof, because there are no absolutes.

Heh. Not going to argue that. A discussion can be had on whether it is 4 or somewhere around, but some people would like to claim it's all a lie and 2+2 actually somehow equals 1.

 

[Purity*]

It was a terrific play by Winnipeg. Whatever decision Gardiner takes, they played him into a position where he is slowed down and have to handle a puck-carrier coming with speed. He chose to try a slide to prevent the pass. Any other choice would likely be just as futile considering the execution of the offensive play. It should be a non-issue. Interestingly, that was how it was treated in media.

If there are any issues at all in that sequence, it's that he was left alone for quite some time.

He got ****ing beat on the play. So what.

Every defensemen gets beat. Drew Doughty and Duncan Keith get beat. Clinging to one play to discredit a player is stupid anyway.

I was liking the statistical debate up until this got brought up. I'm a person who values statistical evidence over personal anecdotes.

 

[Gallagbi]

Easy there easy what you said it not true. Gardiner stays in middle the entire time. He does not force anybody. He then falls down. Wheeler skates to dot on his own momentum after the crossover. Please do not start making things up as you go to defend someone. Gardiner TOOK no one out of that play.

He angles Wheeler off, it's pretty obvious especially in the behind the net replay.

If by staying in the middle you mean he doesn't outright chase Wheeler then you're right, but that would be an awful decision as it isn't an attack situation and a group of fans like you described (ex junior and pro) would clearly know that.

He doesn't "fall" either, he goes down to block the passing lane, but is short on his slide.

 

[Gallagbi]

yeah it worked well

Post less, read more.

 

[RLF]

Heh. Not going to argue that. A discussion can be had on whether it is 4 or somewhere around, but some people would like to claim it's all a lie and 2+2 actually somehow equals 1.

haha. You know what I mean though. Sometimes the stats suggest success, but it isn't there and vice versa...so there is no absolute. Absolute would eliminate outliers/exceptions to the rule.

 

[Nithoniniel]

haha. You know what I mean though. Sometimes the stats suggest success, but it isn't there and vice versa...so there is no absolute. Absolute would eliminate outliers/exceptions to the rule.

Absolutely. Have to say I quite enjoy your posts as of late, RLF. I don't always agree, but I do feel that I respect your opinion and how you arrive at it.

 

[RLF]

Absolutely. Have to say I quite enjoy your posts as of late, RLF. I don't always agree, but I do feel that I respect your opinion and how you arrive at it.

Likewise. Who knew.lol

 

[Swayze*]

Post less, read more.

No guarantees

 

[Swayze*]

I wouldn't say it is garbage, it is only one piece of a huge puzzle though. Typically one stat(variable) affects another. Personally, stats interest me, but I have always preferred to watch the game and evaluate that way. Stats can help shed some light on some area's hard to see with just the eye.

I look at it this way. In math, 2+2 is always 4. It is an absolute. In ADV stats, 2+2 may mostly be 4, or should be 4, but sometimes it is 3.5 or 4.2. Like teams with good possession that don't win. Statistically they should, but they don't always...too many variables that can affect an outcome. That is why I see it as interesting and not absolute fact/proof, because there are no absolutes.

oh I get all that and agree.

But that stat is pretty much useless.

 

[91Kadri91*]

the advanced stats somehow show he's the 2nd best shutdown guy in the league.

And we're back to making **** up.

 

[deletethis]

At least Gardiner got back to defend that 2 on 1. I'm still pondering how none of the Leafs' other 4 skaters had the anticipation/hustle to get back defensively on a rush that hardly unfolded at lightning speed. You could feel it developing with about 5 seconds remaining in the penalty seeing the Leafs still pressing 4 players forward. It's the details that are destroying the Leafs right now. Maybe some of these guys are never going to concern themselves with the details.

 

[Swayze*]

And we're back to making **** up.

How dare you

 

[91Kadri91*]

this is from that 91kadri guy

Gardiner has the second best (out of 120 eligible defensemen) GA60RelTM over the last three seasons (2012-15) among defensemen with 2500+ minutes played at even-strength.

If he has the 2nd best goals against then he must be the 2nd best shutdown guy in the league no?

Oh for the love of...

He has the second best GA60RelTM. His relative numbers benefit from playing on a poor team with poor players; they also suffer from playing in a poor system- or did, at least; his relative numbers look better this year playing in a much better system.

That doesn't mean he's the second best shutdown guy in the league (he's not), but considering (in conjunction with his GA60RelTM) he's top-25 in every relative even-strength category (GFRel, CFRel, FFRel, SFRel, SCFRel, and HSCFRel) since he entered the league (among defensemen with 3000+ minutes since 2011-2012; 147 defensemen total), it does help to illustrate how good Gardiner is, and how good he has been since he entered the league.

He's a great even-strength hockey player; I'm sorry if that angers you.

 

[Swayze*]

Oh for the love of...

He has the second best GA60RelTM. His relative numbers benefit from playing on a poor team with poor players; they also suffer from playing in a poor system- or did, at least; his relative numbers look better this year playing in a much better system.

That doesn't mean he's the second best shutdown guy in the league (he's not), but considering (in conjunction with his GA60RelTM) he's top-25 in every relative even-strength category (GFRel, CFRel, FFRel, SFRel, SCFRel, and HSCFRel) since he entered the league (among defensemen with 3000+ minutes since 2011-2012; 147 defensemen total), it does help to illustrate how good Gardiner is, and how good he has been since he entered the league.

He's a great even-strength hockey player; I'm sorry if that angers you.

I'm very angry

 

[Nithoniniel]

Man, some people really need some serious help with their reading comprehension and deductive skills.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Offensive measures are easier to determine, just goals and assists.
Defensive measures aren't so easily determined.

Well it stands to argue that if the goal of an offensive player is to generate goals, then the goal of a defensive player is to prevent them (which Gardiner does).

 

[Gallagbi]

At least Gardiner got back to defend that 2 on 1. I'm still pondering how none of the Leafs' other 4 skaters had the anticipation/hustle to get back defensively on a rush that hardly unfolded at lightning speed. You could feel it developing with about 5 seconds remaining in the penalty seeing the Leafs still pressing 4 players forward. It's the details that are destroying the Leafs right now. Maybe some of these guys are never going to concern themselves with the details.

Boyes is the worst on it, he's got a shot to come back, but looks to change then coasts from the blue line in