TSN: Jake Gardiner or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Advanced Stats

[RLF]

the advanced stats somehow show he's the 2nd best shutdown guy in the league.

Yes, he has favourable stats in areas, but I don't remember anyone saying he is the "2nd best shut-down D" in the league. Are you sure that is what his ADV stats claim? I think we have a disagreement on the definition of shut-down D, as to me, Gardiner does not play that role.

 

[YOYOTCROSTER*]

Then here is a prime time example why you can't go with stats. Thanks for the education that he did not start playing defence until 17. This explains a lot to me. My guess is he played centre as a kid. Quite frankly I think best thing for Leafs would be to move him to centre ice. He skates so well and he likes to hold the puck so I think it might be his calling. His defensive awareness and instincts are not strong. If they try to make him a defence it may takes many more years of teaching and learning. Defence is even harder than goalie to teach.

 

[Swayze*]

Yes, he has favourable stats in areas, but I don't remember anyone saying he is the "2nd best shut-down D" in the league. Are you sure that is what his ADV stats claim? I think we have a disagreement on the definition of shut-down D, as to me, Gardiner does not play that role.

this is from that 91kadri guy

Gardiner has the second best (out of 120 eligible defensemen) GA60RelTM over the last three seasons (2012-15) among defensemen with 2500+ minutes played at even-strength.

If he has the 2nd best goals against then he must be the 2nd best shutdown guy in the league no?

 

[Nithoniniel]

Stats guys everywhere. Wow. Although Gardiner is the BEST skater on the team he is absolutely the WORST defensive player they have. It was proven again last night on the reverse 2 on 1. He flat out either does not know how to play it or he can't think fast enough to make the right defensive play. Either way that was a play every junior and minor pro player makes all the time. Maybe he was not taught defense as a kid or in the ncaa. Again either way it is real bad for the Leafs.

How do you propose a D-man plays that 1-on-1?

Also interesting that the worst defensive player can get the defensive results that he get. Comparably, that would be like saying that one of the best producing players on the team is actually one of the worst offensively. Not very likely.

Yes, he has favourable stats in areas, but I don't remember anyone saying he is the "2nd best shut-down D" in the league. Are you sure that is what his ADV stats claim? I think we have a disagreement on the definition of shut-down D, as to me, Gardiner does not play that role.

Nobody has suggested that, but people like to create their strawmen.

 

[Swayze*]

How do you propose a D-man plays that 1-on-1?

Also interesting that the worst defensive player can get the defensive results that he get. Comparably, that would be like saying that one of the best producing players on the team is actually one of the worst offensively. Not very likely.



Nobody has suggested that, but people like to create their strawmen.

Gardiner has the second best (out of 120 eligible defensemen) GA60RelTM over the last three seasons (2012-15) among defensemen with 2500+ minutes played at even-strength.

 

[YOYOTCROSTER*]

I don't rely on stats. What I can tell you is I was sitting at a bar with 4 other ex junior and pro guys and we all said the exact same thing. Why did he fall face first into the ice?

We polled our group and all of us said we would have taken the open guy in front of net out of the play and let our goalie take the puck skater who was already quite a ways outside the blue ice when they did the reverse. He might have scored but it would have been very very hard for him to beat the goalie short side given his skating speed and position on the ice. The defense job is to recognize the play quick and work with goalie to stop a goal.

However even if he had taken the puck skater out of play it would have forced a pass which our goalie could have read in which case it would have given him a tougher save to make on a clean blue ice breakaway.

But he fell down to ice and was a dead man walking. it was essentially a 2 on 0 which goalie is now completely dead to rights.

This is very simple to understand even for a non player.

 

[RLF]

this is from that 91kadri guy

Gardiner has the second best (out of 120 eligible defensemen) GA60RelTM over the last three seasons (2012-15) among defensemen with 2500+ minutes played at even-strength.

If he has the 2nd best goals against then he must be the 2nd best shutdown guy in the league no?

IIRC that stat is based on his GA60 compared to his teammates and then you can compare that to players on other teams GA60 to his teammates. SO Kadri91 is saying in comparison to D on other teams, he has the second highest rank overall. That is far from saying he is the 2nd best shutdown D in the league.

Edit. unless that is the point he was trying to make is that he is 2nd best shutdown and the stat shows it...then I would say he is drawing a pretty big conclusion from that stat(which I don't think he was).

 

[ACC1224]

How do you propose a D-man plays that 1-on-1?

Also interesting that the worst defensive player can get the defensive results that he get. Comparably, that would be like saying that one of the best producing players on the team is actually one of the worst offensively. Not very likely.

.

Offensive measures are easier to determine, just goals and assists.
Defensive measures aren't so easily determined.

 

[Swayze*]

IIRC that stat is based on his GA60 compared to his teammates and then you can compare that to players on other teams GA60 to his teammates. SO Kadri91 is saying in comparison to D on other teams, he has the second highest rank overall. That is far from saying he is the 2nd best shutdown D in the league.

So its kind of useless or what?

 

[Swayze*]

I don't rely on stats. What I can tell you is I was sitting at a bar with 4 other ex junior and pro guys and we all said the exact same thing. Why did he fall face first into the ice?

We polled our group and all of us said we would have taken the open guy in front of net out of the play and let our goalie take the puck skater who was already quite a ways outside the blue ice when they did the reverse. He might have scored but it would have been very very hard for him to beat the goalie short side given his skating speed and position on the ice. The defense job is to recognize the play quick and work with goalie to stop a goal.

However even if he had taken the puck skater out of play it would have forced a pass which our goalie could have read in which case it would have given him a tougher save to make on a clean blue ice breakaway.

But he fell down to ice and was a dead man walking. it was essentially a 2 on 0 which goalie is now completely dead to rights.

This is very simple to understand even for a non player.

 

[RLF]

So its kind of useless or what?

No, not at all. But it has to be taken with context.imo
For example. hard to claim player A on Team A is better than player B on team B because some of his stats suggest it. Have to consider the usage of each player, the role he plays, the system the coach uses, teammates etc. Context.

 

[leafs in five]

good meme, glad it was generated

 

[Swayze*]

No, not at all. But it has to be taken with context.imo
For example. hard to claim player A on Team A is better than player B on team B because some of his stats suggest it. Have to consider the usage of each player, the role he plays, the system the coach uses, teammates etc. Context.

So how can you determine any of that or how can you interpret that stat?

 

[Gallagbi]

I don't rely on stats. What I can tell you is I was sitting at a bar with 4 other ex junior and pro guys and we all said the exact same thing. Why did he fall face first into the ice?

We polled our group and all of us said we would have taken the open guy in front of net out of the play and let our goalie take the puck skater who was already quite a ways outside the blue ice when they did the reverse. He might have scored but it would have been very very hard for him to beat the goalie short side given his skating speed and position on the ice. The defense job is to recognize the play quick and work with goalie to stop a goal.

However even if he had taken the puck skater out of play it would have forced a pass which our goalie could have read in which case it would have given him a tougher save to make on a clean blue ice breakaway.

But he fell down to ice and was a dead man walking. it was essentially a 2 on 0 which goalie is now completely dead to rights.

This is very simple to understand even for a non player.

When he decides to play it as a usual 2on1 Wheeler is at the top of the circles with plenty of room to walk in. Playing it as he did was correct, but his slide wasn't great.

He forces Wheeler to a bad angle where Reimer knows a pass is coming and has a chance to react and/or poke check the centering.

Taking Burmistov doesn't lead to a bad angle shot, it leads to a partial breakaway from the top of the circles with Reimer deep in his crease from the pull-up.

 

[leafs in five]

i've never been a big fan of sprawling out on the ice but a lot of guys that play defense in the NHL seem to do it.

 

[YOYOTCROSTER*]

stats are only good for macro planning purposes. they are useless on individual plays. however individual plays decide games. take that to bed with your rubix. I know I know some day the mathematicians will figure it out.

 

[Guy Boucher]

When he decides to play it as a usual 2on1 Wheeler is at the top of the circles with plenty of room to walk in. Playing it as he did was correct, but his slide wasn't great.

He forces Wheeler to a bad angle where Reimer knows a pass is coming and has a chance to react and/or poke check the centering.

Taking Burmistov doesn't lead to a bad angle shot, it leads to a partial breakaway from the top of the circles with Reimer deep in his crease from the pull-up.

Yup. There was nothing Gardiner or Reimer could do on that goal.

 

[leafs in five]

stats are only good for macro planning purposes. they are useless on individual plays. however individual plays decide games. take that to bed with your rubix. I know I know some day the mathematicians will figure it out.

glad that's settled finally.

 

[Swayze*]

good meme, glad it was generated

 

[ACC1224]

When he decides to play it as a usual 2on1 Wheeler is at the top of the circles with plenty of room to walk in. Playing it as he did was correct, but his slide wasn't great.

He forces Wheeler to a bad angle where Reimer knows a pass is coming and has a chance to react and/or poke check the centering.

Taking Burmistov doesn't lead to a bad angle shot, it leads to a partial breakaway from the top of the circles with Reimer deep in his crease from the pull-up.

I thought the Jets played that very well, didn't give the Leafs much of a chance.

 

[Swayze*]

 

[mcleex]

Gardiner has been invisible the last 2-3 games

 

[YOYOTCROSTER*]

Take another look at video maybe I will too (as I had a few) but I think wheeler took puck on cross over at full speed at top of circle skating toward the faceoff dot. Then Gardiner face plants and then it is an easy 2 on 0. Either way he has to do something either take the skater or the other guy. Force the play. What he did was nothing. Again it was mind mogling stuff for an nhl defence to do nothing.

 

[yubbers]

 

[RLF]

So how can you determine any of that or how can you interpret that stat?

There is the debate on advanced stats. Some look at it as irrefutable fact for what it shows about a player and how good he is at something and that all variables are accounted for. Others say it is interesting but doesn't prove how good he is because there are too many variables that cannot possibly be accounted for.
Interpretation is up to you to decide what it means to you and what it shows.