TSN: Jake Gardiner or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Advanced Stats

[91Kadri91*]

So despite not turning in a single season in the NHL with a positive even strength goal differential..

Well that's a blatant lie: he had a 50.8 GF% in 2011-12 (his rookie season), and a 52.1 GF% in 2013-14.

Oh, and the only team Gardiner's played on with a positive even-strength goal differential was the 2012-13 team, and he only played 12 games that (regular) season.

You are here suggesting he out-scores the opposition?

No, I'm suggesting the opposing team puts the puck in our net less often when Gardiner is on the ice than when another defenseman (playing for the Leafs) is on the ice.

 

[Bomber0104]

Watch it! He's 2nd best in the league in ga60's ahead of keith weber etc

Basically the best shutdown guy in the league.

He's got my vote for Norris.

I'll admit.

Now for the Leafs to just get that pesky 3rd win of the year...

 

[Swayze*]

He's a master at shot and goal suppression but the best coach in the world won't put him on the pk where those skills are needed most.

#gaf69% saF75er

 

[Nithoniniel]

He's a master at shot and goal suppression but the best coach in the world won't put him on the pk where those skills are needed most.

#gaf69% saF75er

You are so funny.

Do you believe playing defense even strength and on the penalty kill is the same?

 

[Swayze*]

You are so funny.

Do you believe playing defense even strength and on the penalty kill is the same?

I believe those skills are transferrable.

I mean we looked like we were on the pk for all of two seasons

 

[The Thin White Duke]

I believe those skills are transferrable.

I mean we looked like we were on the pk for all of two seasons

100% right. I don't get why our defense doesn't just dump the puck out from our own zone 5v5? I mean they do it on the PK all the time!!

 

[Nithoniniel]

I believe those skills are transferrable.

I mean we looked like we were on the pk for all of two seasons

There are many guys that are great defensively at one but not the either. Transferable? Maybe. But not in all cases.

 

[Swayze*]

100% right. I don't get why our defense doesn't just dump the puck out from our own zone 5v5? I mean they do it on the PK all the time!!

Right. Suppressing shots is useless on the pk

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Right. Suppressing shots is useless on the pk

You suppress shots.. by getting the puck out of the zone where the other team takes shots from. On the PK, Polak can slap the puck out 9/10 times with ease. Even strength, Roman Polak cannot slap the puck out and actually needs to make an intelligent play with it.

I mean, I don't know why I answered this considering this is yet another strawman on your part but have at it.

 

[Bomber0104]

Some sure would. If you really want to learn, the best way is to read up on the subject from the start, not look for quick answers on HFBoards.

But that's not really what you are after, right?

There's a reason why you won't show me what these Scoring Chance "stats" are all about.

Just like there's a reason you don't like me talking about shot-based statistics at the event-level...

 

[Bomber0104]

You suppress shots.. by getting the puck out of the zone where the other team takes shots from. On the PK, Polak can slap the puck out 9/10 times with ease. Even strength, Roman Polak cannot slap the puck out and actually needs to make an intelligent play with it.

I mean, I don't know why I answered this considering this is yet another strawman on your part but have at it.

Gardiner is better at breaking the puck out than Polak.

Now what?

Can he take the puck away as well as Polak?

Most would say no.

Others will just say yes and then regurgitate some nonsense internet stat as some sort of evidence.

 

[Nithoniniel]

There's a reason why you won't show me what these Scoring Chance "stats" are all about.

Just like there's a reason you don't like me talking about shot-based statistics at the event-level...

You can talk about it as much as you want, I find it rather amusing to be honest.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Gardiner is better at breaking the puck out than Polak.

Now what?

Can he take the puck away as well as Polak?

Most would say no.

Others will just say yes and then regurgitate some nonsense internet stat as some sort of evidence.

The conversation was about PK and even strength being similar defensively, Polak is the perfect example to the contrary.

As for you, my answer is that Polak's takeaway skills are largely irrelevant. If he takes the puck away and turns it over because he can't break out, is that really a positive for him? Changes in possession are largely random, the most you can really do is keep opposing teams to low scoring areas as much as possible until that change occurs. Even if Gardiner could not win a single puck battle ever, he would still have plenty of opportunities ever game to use his breakout and offensive possession skills.

 

[Swayze*]

Joking aside. How were jakes advanced stats tonite?

 

[Bomber0104]

So let me get this straight.

Shot comes from x-location and ALL of them are treated the same way?

Are you joking me?

So a player comes in on two defencemen (1 on 2) and spams a shot from the blue line, and that's treated the same way as a point shot with a screen and traffic? This is just one very simple example.

Clearly you can appreciate the game of hockey offers so many more possible situations.

Sorry.... but like I said before it's a cute attempt but it utterly fails the smell test, and it's pretty irresponsible on your part for posting "stats" based on this faulty information, and then pawn it off as some kind of sacred truth.

Back to the drawing board there bud.

 

[91Kadri91*]

So let me get this straight.

Shot comes from x-location and ALL of them are treated the same way?

Are you joking me?

So a player comes in on two defencemen (1 on 2) and spams a shot from the blue line, and that's treated the same way as a point shot with a screen and traffic?

Sorry.... like I said before.

Cute attempt, but utterly fails, and it's pretty embarrassing that you post this garbage here and glorify it as some kind of sacred truth.

Back to the drawing board there bud.

It's based on shooting percentages from certain locations (so, y'know, quantifiable facts); players score more from scoring chance areas, and more still from high-danger areas.

If you want shooting angles and rebound angles, feel free to look at xGoals.

 

[Guy Boucher]

joking aside. How were jakes advanced stats tonite?

58% cf.

 

[Bomber0104]

58% cf.

It's settled then.

He had a GREAT game!!!!!!

 

[Bomber0104]

It's based on shooting percentages from certain locations (so, y'know, quantifiable facts); players score more from scoring chance areas, and more still from high-danger areas.

If you want shooting angles and rebound angles, feel free to look at xGoals.

That means nothing.

You're treating every shot as if they are created equal based on where they are spatially shot from.

They're not, no matter how much that website's creator wants you to believe they are.

I don't know, ask a goalie? See if they agree with you??

 

[91Kadri91*]

Joking aside. How were jakes advanced stats tonite?

15.27 CFRel; 23.16 FFRel; 19.46 SFRel.

 

[Bomber0104]

15.27 CFRel; 23.16 FFRel; 19.46 SFRel.

So he had a great game tonight, right???

 

[Swayze*]

15.27 CFRel; 23.16 FFRel; 19.46 SFRel.

Im a lay man

 

[Bomber0104]

Im a lay man

I think what it means (correct me if I'm wrong) is that all the goals against that were scored against him tonight, regardless of whether he was out of position, afraid to lay a hit, WHATEVER,....

It was basically everyone else's fault, not his fault, just a few simple Corsi events and not statistically meaningful, and he had a GREAT GAME overall and (insert these numbers from this website) here's why!!!

GO JAKE!!!!

 

[91Kadri91*]

That means nothing.

You're treating every shot as if they are created equal based on where they are spatially shot from.

They're not, no matter how much that website's creator wants you to believe they are.

I don't know, ask a goalie? See if they agree with you??

Sure, they're treating every shot from that particular area as equal, but they're based on the aggregate shooting-percentage from that area so 'screened shots' are inherently accounted for, they're just not differentiated.

Also, if we're assuming that screened shots are causing more goals (on either side), then a player allowing a higher frequency of screened shots would have a higher GA60. If that isn't the case, then it doesn't matter, because screened/'unscreened' shots have little correlation with goals allowed (and, in turn, little correlation with Win%).

So, assuming screens/angle/traffic etc. makes a difference, doesn't your claim that Gardiner is always out of position- and never doing anything well- mean that Gardiner would allow more goals against? If so, either you're doing very poor job of analyzing what is really happening (very, very likely), or these variables that you assume make a difference don't really make a difference at all, because Gardiner is not allowing a bunch of goals against.

So which is it?

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Sure, they're treating every shot from that particular area as equal, but they're based on the aggregate shooting-percentage from that area so 'screened shots' are inherently accounted for, they're just not differentiated.

Also, if we're assuming that screened shots are causing more goals (on either side), then a player allowing a higher frequency of screened shots would have a higher GA60. If that isn't the case, then it doesn't matter, because screened/'unscreened' shots have little correlation with goals allowed (and, in turn, little correlation with Win%).

So, assuming screens/angle/traffic etc. makes a difference, doesn't your claim that Gardiner is always out of position- and never doing anything well- mean that Gardiner would allow more goals against? If so, either you're doing very poor job of analyzing what is really happening (very, very likely), or these variables that you assume make a difference don't really make a difference at all, because Gardiner is not allowing a bunch of goals against.

So which is it?

Gardiner's bad and the Corsi ghost is helping him. It's the only way people like him will accept the validity of advanced stats when they've already made up their mind about a player. An argument that will change his mind about Gardiner doesn't exist.