Player Discussion Jake DeBrusk VIII

[Kazcram]

4 x 4.5 is max id go . hasnt shown hes worth more

 

[goldnblack]

That was a tough game for sure for him. Again people keep saying hockey IQ. I don't see that away from the puck.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

The distinction between genuine first line and second line players is not always clear. But I think if you are looking at the guys who are more truly 2nd line or even the upper end of ‘middle six’ wingers, the very top end of their point tallies for a full 82-game season is probably around 70 points, with a lower end of about 45. Probably if you’re at least in the 50s, or around that .650-700 PPG mark, then you’re doing a decent enough job as a 2LW/RW. DeBrusk’s currently on a .463 pace, which isn’t good enough, and for his career he’s .572. That’s not terrible, but it’s not setting the world on fire nor does it compare favorably with the better 2nd line guys.

In terms of money again it’s a pretty broad band. Can go as high as $7m, down to $3.5. If you look at the .600 guys with at least somewhat similar ages, Vrana’s on $5.25, Compher $5.1, Zucker $5.3, Iafallo $4, Mikheyev $4.75, Bertuzzi $5.5, Bunting $4.5, Crouse $4.3, Fabbri $4, Garland $4.95. Something around $5m p.a., depending on term, is probably around the ballpark average then. If DeBrusk had kept his form from last year he could easily command more than that, but right now, I’m not seeing it.

Personally I don’t think DeBrusk’s earned a higher value, long-term deal. He has talent but his form and production have always been too streaky to be reliable and his operating window is too narrow. I think his compete level is mostly fine enough and he’s not afraid to do some grunt work and fill a role that may be less glamorous when the coach requires it. In that sense he’s at least somewhat adaptable and his contribution away from the scoreboard is not negligible. But it’s not enough to make up for his overall sketchy production.

If the Bruins were to offer him 4-5 years at sub $5m p.a. I could live with it. More than that no thanks. My preference though is to trade him. Nice guy, no major complaints about him, but simply not consistent enough and too ‘vanilla’ to be a player I want to keep long-term. I think we’ve seen more than enough now to conclude that Jake is a serviceable top 6 winger but not more than that, and I’d like to see Boston aim higher and try someone else. And that’s the next part of the equation. You let him go, fine, but there has to be a good replacement in mind. Marchand is heading towards the end which leaves Pasta and Zacha as the team’s only legit top 6 wingers heading into the future, should Pavel return to that role. Maybe Lysell will get there in time, but that’s pure assumption at present, and there’s not much else in the cupboard. So there’s definitely a need to inject more top forward talent, and if a guy like DeBrusk is replaceable enough, they’re not dime-a-dozen either. Sweeney’s going to need to get it right if he goes shopping in the offseason or at the deadline.

Last year Jake had 50 points and was 31st among left wings. There’s some injury stuff, and good teams should have their wings produce more, and then some third liners pop, but the 64th LW had 30 points (Pierre Engvall).

Just for posterity, the 31st highest RW had 46 points (Sprong/Rust/Garland) and the 64th RW had 25 points (Yamamoto/Bailey/Marchenko/Perry).

There always been a big disparity for what fans think an average second line wing produces versus the reality.

 

[SPLBRUIN]

I've always been a Debrusk supporter but I suspect he is getting dealt at the deadline. Perhaps to the Flames in a trade and sign for Hanifin, of course the Bruins have to add. It just seems like he has run his course in Boston.

 

[goldnblack]

Pressure on him now must be enormous. That's why I just wish he'd play a simple hard game.

Shoot with the puck on your stick. Play hard along the boards. Hit people. Get in the crease.

Basically be more like JVR, give or take.

 

[KrejciMVP]

Jake can contribute but he's just not that tier of player who you hand big money to

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Last year Jake had 50 points and was 31st among left wings. There’s some injury stuff, and good teams should have their wings produce more, and then some third liners pop, but the 64th LW had 30 points (Pierre Engvall).

Just for posterity, the 31st highest RW had 46 points (Sprong/Rust/Garland) and the 64th RW had 25 points (Yamamoto/Bailey/Marchenko/Perry).

There always been a big disparity for what fans think an average second line wing produces versus the reality.

A fair criticism. Perhaps some of my quick estimates were a bit inflated. To revisit, for the moment let's ignore the distinction between centres and wings because the NHL stats are not overly accurate in assigning positions and maybe look at it as saying, very broadly speaking, that the first 90 forwards in the league are 'top line' and the next 90 are 'second line'. Last season, that second group of 90 had points totals from 37 to 57. Right in the middle is 47, or .573 PPG. Which means that DeBrusk's career pace of .572 PPG is bang on average for a second line forward. Factor in on one side that he has spent his entire career on comparatively high scoring playoff teams and on the other that centers tend to produce a little more than wingers and it probably still balances out that he's produced at right around par for someone in his position. Does that sound fair?

That re-evaluation doesn't change my position or the general gist of my argument, I don't think. Is comparatively average production, combined with whatever else Jake brings to the table, enough to warrant re-signing him, and if so at what value and term?

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

A fair criticism. Perhaps some of my quick estimates were a bit inflated. To revisit, for the moment let's ignore the distinction between centres and wings because the NHL stats are not overly accurate in assigning positions and maybe look at it as saying, very broadly speaking, that the first 90 forwards in the league are 'top line' and the next 90 are 'second line'. Last season, that second group of 90 had points totals from 37 to 57. Right in the middle is 47, or .573 PPG. Which means that DeBrusk's career pace of .572 PPG is bang on average for a second line forward. Factor in that he has spent his entire career on comparatively high scoring playoff teams and that probably says that, all other things being as equal as possible, he's produced at just below par for someone in his position. Does that sound fair?

Factoring in that reevaluation doesn't change my position or the general gist of my argument, I don't think. Is comparatively average production, combined with whatever else Jake brings to the table, enough to warrant re-signing him, and if so at what value and term?

Well, for contract purposes, I don’t think centers and wings are comparable, especially at the high end. So I think combining them for any kind of contract analysis doesn’t make sense. Centers score more points and are worth more even above that. Kempe was 31st among centers with 67 points last year. And the 64th center had 46 points (Morgan Frost), one point more than Charlie Coyle. Jake’s comparables are wings. He produced as a top six wing last year - easily.

He had the chance this year to earn himself some real money simply by producing at the same level again. He hasn’t done that. So his value has certainly declined from the summer.

But he is a top six wing in this league. He’s not an empty calorie guy - he does more than just play inside the offensive zone. He has performed well in the playoffs. A complementary winger for sure, but a good one. Some players - in all sports - raise their game in a contract year. Others have trouble with the pressure. Would Jake perform better if the weight was off his shoulders? That’s the tough question.

Part of the answer though is who you’re putting in his role instead. We don’t really have a solution this year, so trading him for a defenseman would require another move. Maybe they think Lysell can do it next year. Or Merkulov. But neither can PK or play defensively in general at Jake’s level. And Marchand isn’t getting younger. And the UFA class is weak once you get by the guys who will almost certainly resign (Reinhart et Al).

I’m sure at worst he has a 4x$5M deal on the table. I don’t know what the numbers are to come to an agreement, but I’d bet on them getting there.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Well, for contract purposes, I don’t think centers and wings are comparable, especially at the high end. So I think combining them for any kind of contract analysis doesn’t make sense. Centers score more points and are worth more even above that. Kempe was 31st among centers with 67 points last year. And the 64th center had 46 points (Morgan Frost), one point more than Charlie Coyle. Jake’s comparables are wings. He produced as a top six wing last year - easily.

He had the chance this year to earn himself some real money simply by producing at the same level again. He hasn’t done that. So his value has certainly declined from the summer.

But he is a top six wing in this league. He’s not an empty calorie guy - he does more than just play inside the offensive zone. He has performed well in the playoffs. A complementary winger for sure, but a good one. Some players - in all sports - raise their game in a contract year. Others have trouble with the pressure. Would Jake perform better if the weight was off his shoulders? That’s the tough question.

Part of the answer though is who you’re putting in his role instead. We don’t really have a solution this year, so trading him for a defenseman would require another move. Maybe they think Lysell can do it next year. Or Merkulov. But neither can PK or play defensively in general at Jake’s level. And Marchand isn’t getting younger. And the UFA class is weak once you get by the guys who will almost certainly resign (Reinhart et Al).

I’m sure at worst he has a 4x$5M deal on the table. I don’t know what the numbers are to come to an agreement, but I’d bet on them getting there.

Yeah I was actually just editing my post to note that centers do on average produce more, and of course it does follow that they earn more. Have to allow for that.

We may quibble over some details but I think in general we're not miles apart on this. DeBrusk is a decent 2nd line winger who's statistically average for his position. I've already said I'd be happy enough with something like 4x5 to re-sign him. I get the sense you'd be willing to go a little higher, in which case well I wouldn't but fair enough. We've both written about the lack of internal options to replace him, and I'd agree that on the FA/trade market there's not much quality available.

And yet I still favor moving him on. Possibly and bluntly in the end it stems from no better reason than I'm bored of him and want to see something else. The roster is a bit too same-same and perhaps a little too comfortable and could do with a shakeup and adding something different, and maybe moving on from Jake is one of the ways of achieving that. There's risk in that of course, but potential upside too. Is that a good enough reason to remove a guy who's been quite serviceable, especially in a pretty flat market and given that you very often have to overpay for free agents? Logically, probably not. I'll concede that. But there it is.

 

[dredeye]

I've always been a Debrusk supporter but I suspect he is getting dealt at the deadline. Perhaps to the Flames in a trade and sign for Hanifin, of course the Bruins have to add. It just seems like he has run his course in Boston.

Why are we acquiring d? I don’t see a scenario the B’s take away from the current roster. Unless he’s a must add in a scenario like this one. Are the flames really gonna want a ufa to be as a main part of a piece coming back for Hanifin? With a contract maybe but I don’t see that happening

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

I've always been a Debrusk supporter but I suspect he is getting dealt at the deadline. Perhaps to the Flames in a trade and sign for Hanifin, of course the Bruins have to add. It just seems like he has run his course in Boston.

Why are we acquiring a defenseman who is going to command big money (when we realistically need offense) and why is Calgary interested in a to be UFA forward perpetually underperforming?

Hanifin is the big name out there But he doesn’t fill a need

 

[22Brad Park]

What's Jake streak now, 10 gms pointless ?

 

[Mione134]

The Bruins Have Found Success Reuniting the Brad Marchand-Charlie Coyle-Jake Debrusk Line

(Photo Credit: Barry Chin/Globe Staff) By: Tom Calautti | Follow me on Twitter @TCalauttis and Linktree It may have taken almost half of the season to figure out, but it looks like the Boston Bruins finally have some clarity on which line combinations give them the best chance to win. Jim Mont

blackngoldhockey.com

Things were going really well. Then we went on a skid. Lines were changed. Though I think Jake looks good with Zacha and Pasta. 3 games now they've been together. Hopefully the goals come.

 

[Ozzy Osbourne]

Jake can contribute but he's just not that tier of player who you hand big money to

Yes. He’s a complimentary player, NOT a guy you even think about breaking the bank for. He’s a passenger way too often.

 

[Alicat]

What's Jake streak now, 10 gms pointless ?

8 according to Morning Bru

 

[CellyHard]

Yes. He’s a complimentary player, NOT a guy you even think about breaking the bank for. He’s a passenger way too often.

Complimentary player but doesn't compliment his line-mates. It's a conundrum. Some people think it's his hockey IQ but he doesn't make players around him better (eye test). Players around him make Jake better, which isn't the type of guy you invest longterm in.

Heinen is the complete opposite. He adapts to his line-mates, you can put him in any position and he does the little things, like win puck battles, maintain possession, etc. I also think Heinen has elite hockey IQ so it actually could be that with Jake.

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

It’s almost as if Montgomery goes out of his way to talk about how Jake has been doing “the little things”.

It doesn’t seem to matter how effective or ineffective his game is at any given time. More than any other player on the team, I as a fan am perpetually being told that I seemingly am just not paying close enough attention to see the goodness in his game.

Have missed some games lately, and I haven’t noticed him being at a worse level than the team as a whole during this streak in the games that I have seen, but I feel like this is a forever thing at this point. He has stretches where he is a top player on this team, but has longer periods where he isn’t all that interested but (depending on the coach), we’re told that he’s “doing good things”.

There are players who get contracts into their early 30s based on “talent level” or “potential” and they almost never end up paying off. That’s where I think anyone who signs Jake long term for big coin is headed and I’d really prefer not to be that team. If he leaves, he’s left behind some really nice memories, but this isn’t a player you build around. And quite frankly, I feel like that’s more than obvious at this point.

 

[Blowfish]

Love Debrusk but my gutt is telling me gonzo! Hence the scout leaders in the stands.

 

[SPLBRUIN]

Why are we acquiring a defenseman who is going to command big money (when we realistically need offense) and why is Calgary interested in a to be UFA forward perpetually underperforming?

Hanifin is the big name out there But he doesn’t fill a need

Our D is not good enough for playoff hockey, get a guy like Hanifin and we can play a stacked top 4 heavy minutes. Our bottom pairing guys with the exception of Wotherspoon are liabilities and Monty dosen't care much for Wotherspoon. Even if the Bruins go out and get a legitimate top 6 forward we aren't going to beat teams with firepower, maybe the Bruins should focus on having the best D and goaltending out there come playoff time.

 

[MattFromFranklin]

Not that he's going to be traded if he doesn't start producing, but I expect him to have some good games before the deadline.

 

[BMC]

Jake has always been too inconsistent for me. If the Bruins can get someone good in return I won't have any issues with trading him.

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

Our D is not good enough for playoff hockey, get a guy like Hanifin and we can play a stacked top 4 heavy minutes. Our bottom pairing guys with the exception of Wotherspoon are liabilities and Monty dosen't care much for Wotherspoon. Even if the Bruins go out and get a legitimate top 6 forward we aren't going to beat teams with firepower, maybe the Bruins should focus on having the best D and goaltending out there come playoff time.

Right now, the offense is thin at best. I feel like it's nearly a board consensus that they've been overachieving for much of the season based on the personnel that is there. Now you're talking about thinning it out even more to add a player so we can "stack" the D. Its just further concentrating more demand onto fewer players. This isn't even considering that surely the Bruins would be adding more assets to the trade. Who else/what else is going?

There's a lot of truth to "defense wins championships". But what you're talking about is just going to result in a further concentration of pressure for production on like 3 or 4 defensive players and 2 offensive guys. That's not a strategy or a team that is beating anyone. We're not outgunning anyone, but that doesn't make it logical to strip away more of a weakness to pad what is already a strength.

IMO, it's similar to the mistake the Penguins made with Karlsson this past summer. Everyone in Pitt is going crazy because they added this one-dimensional offensive defenseman. He's a great player but had absolutely nothing to do with what their needs actually are/were. How's that going so far?

 

[goldnblack]

Jake has always been too inconsistent for me. If the Bruins can get someone good in return I won't have any issues with trading him.

I didn't love hearing that at age 27, he was named by every Bruins teammate as the guy who had no idea how to pack a suitcase. I never considered Jake's issues to be physical. It's definitely purely mental for him.

 

[Fenian24]

I would move on from DeBrusk just because I think he is going to sign with Edmonton this off season. I take him for what he is, an inconsistent, complimentary scorer. He isn't worth 7 years 6 million.

 

[FRyan4426]

My worry is Cam and Sweeney won’t want to admit to any more defeat in the 2015 draft and sign Jake to a ridiculous extension.