During the 2nd intermission, Beers said JDB contributes a lot when he’s not scoring.
Anyway.
What does a 2nd line wing reasonable produce offensively?
What does their cap hit look like?
Who are JDB’s comparables?
The distinction between genuine first line and second line players is not always clear. But I think if you are looking at the guys who are more truly 2nd line or even the upper end of ‘middle six’ wingers, the very top end of their point tallies for a full 82-game season is probably around 70 points, with a lower end of about 45. Probably if you’re at least in the 50s, or around that .650-700 PPG mark, then you’re doing a decent enough job as a 2LW/RW. DeBrusk’s currently on a .463 pace, which isn’t good enough, and for his career he’s .572. That’s not terrible, but it’s not setting the world on fire nor does it compare favorably with the better 2nd line guys.
In terms of money again it’s a pretty broad band. Can go as high as $7m, down to $3.5. If you look at the .600 guys with at least somewhat similar ages, Vrana’s on $5.25, Compher $5.1, Zucker $5.3, Iafallo $4, Mikheyev $4.75, Bertuzzi $5.5, Bunting $4.5, Crouse $4.3, Fabbri $4, Garland $4.95. Something around $5m p.a., depending on term, is probably around the ballpark average then. If DeBrusk had kept his form from last year he could easily command more than that, but right now, I’m not seeing it.
Personally I don’t think DeBrusk’s earned a higher value, long-term deal. He has talent but his form and production have always been too streaky to be reliable and his operating window is too narrow. I think his compete level is mostly fine enough and he’s not afraid to do some grunt work and fill a role that may be less glamorous when the coach requires it. In that sense he’s at least somewhat adaptable and his contribution away from the scoreboard is not negligible. But it’s not enough to make up for his overall sketchy production.
If the Bruins were to offer him 4-5 years at sub $5m p.a. I could live with it. More than that no thanks. My preference though is to trade him. Nice guy, no major complaints about him, but simply not consistent enough and too ‘vanilla’ to be a player I want to keep long-term. I think we’ve seen more than enough now to conclude that Jake is a serviceable top 6 winger but not more than that, and I’d like to see Boston aim higher and try someone else. And that’s the next part of the equation. You let him go, fine, but there has to be a good replacement in mind. Marchand is heading towards the end which leaves Pasta and Zacha as the team’s only legit top 6 wingers heading into the future, should Pavel return to that role. Maybe Lysell will get there in time, but that’s pure assumption at present, and there’s not much else in the cupboard. So there’s definitely a need to inject more top forward talent, and if a guy like DeBrusk is replaceable enough, they’re not dime-a-dozen either. Sweeney’s going to need to get it right if he goes shopping in the offseason or at the deadline.
