Player Discussion Jake DeBrusk VII

[LSCII]

If DeBrusk's family wanted to help their Son get a better contract they might try to do so. The father would have relationships NHL Pro Scouts and he could theoretically have them contact a schill in the media to start some buzz. I would presume using someone who is well known for blasting information and for being ambiguous with sources might be more willing to publish without mentioning a kown relationship between a source and the subject of the article in DeBrusk.

I don't know what happened, but I wouldn't be shocked if the DeBrusk family is using their resources to put pressure on the B's at the negotiation table and maybe that involves the media.

Again, I look at the source and disqualify it based on the dude's track record. He's a former poster here and not someone you'd ever consider a true insider.

 

[HustleB]

Again, I look at the source and disqualify it based on the dude's track record. He's a former poster here and not someone you'd ever consider a true insider.

Yeah, no argument here.

I'm not leaning in on the report. I am just saying that even if it's true, then it's not surprising or enlightening until we understand the true motivations of the "NHL Pro Scout".

I think you're being a bit too conspiratorial here. A blogger put out a possibility he dreamed up for a trade (calling him media is a pretty loose description of media given who he works for). It then gets reblasted by someone else who works for his company. This turns into people thinking this is a real rumor. Projecting that out to Louie Debrusk is a bridge too far here IMO.

I am not trying to get to the bottom of it. I am not trying to figure it out. I merely point out that it's unmeaningful even if true unless there is more information. I am particularly skeptical of the source's motivation.

 

[PB37]

How often does Debrusk carry the puck? If it's not a breakaway (which he is the best on the team at) or 2 on 1 he rarely even tries to carry thru. Can't see how one could say Debrusk drives a line when he really doesn't have the puck very much.



Isn't a rumor by definition not real?

I think he has the capability and when Marchand was slowing down as the season went on, I noticed DeBrusk carrying the puck more up the ice for that line when he returned.

I do think you're right though - he does defer a bit more on a group rush rather than take it himself into the zone and look to make plays like your usual line drivers. But I still think he's more of a line driver than some think.

 

[KrejciMVP]

don't believe Cam and Sweeeny really think Debrusk is the guy to go all in on. Question is will Debrusk take a team friendly below market value deal or go for every cent he can. Hes taken bridge deals before so this is his only chance to cash in

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

It seems that many are defining what a line driver is much differently than the hockey community at large usually does. Lot of reference here to carrying the puck on the rush as the main trait. It’s really not. It’s driving possession on both sides of the ice, not just carrying the puck into the zone.

Bergeron is as consistent a line driver as anyone the past decade plus. Basically the epitome of a line driver. And he’s not the guy leading the rush most of the time.

 

[KrejciMVP]

don't consider debrusk a line driver based on his assist #s. more a scorer than a creator. Center reliant. Hopefully that knocks down the cost

 

[Mione134]

There were many times last year that he himself, alone drove that 1st line. When Marchy was struggling and Bergy wasn't right. It was clear as day. He was our best forward in all areas for a good portion of the season. That showed maturity and leadership. He's not just a passenger on a line. He showed how valuable he is to the team.

He should be a big part of the team going forward. Him and Pasta.

 

[Bruinswillwin77]

There were many times last year that he himself, alone drove that 1st line. When Marchy was struggling and Bergy wasn't right. It was clear as day. He was our best forward in all areas for a good portion of the season. That showed maturity and leadership. He's not just a passenger on a line. He showed how valuable he is to the team.

He should be a big part of the team going forward. Him and Pasta.

Good take

 

[Mione134]

Good take

Thank you friend!

 

[PB37]

It seems that many are defining what a line driver is much differently than the hockey community at large usually does. Lot of reference here to carrying the puck on the rush as the main trait. It’s really not. It’s driving possession on both sides of the ice, not just carrying the puck into the zone.

Bergeron is as consistent a line driver as anyone the past decade plus. Basically the epitome of a line driver. And he’s not the guy leading the rush most of the time.

Maybe you're confusing the term with " driving possession " which colloquially has meant someone who has the ability to skate/move the puck out of their own end and into the offensive zone. A line driver has similar traits but it's main focus has usually meant the work a forward can do from around their own blue line, thru the NZ, and in the offensive zone. I usually hear and consider them as two similar but different classifications of skills.

 

[missingchicklet]

Regardless of the definition of line driver, where Jake took a big step last season was his shouldering more responsibility in keeping possession in the Ozone. That meant going into corners to get pucks, winning puck battles along the boards, and going to the dirty areas around the net. Three reasons for that IMO: 1) more confidence in his health after dealing with concussion issues, 2) taking it upon himself to do such things since Marchy was not at 100%, and 3) I believe Monty pushed Jake to become a better all-around player.

Jake was excellent on his line in maintaining possession last season in the Ozone. He not only scored a lot of goals, but many of them were timely. He picked up the slack when his linemates weren't at their best. He's the best north-south forward on the team and the best player on breakaways. Perhaps his role will change a bit this coming season based on Marchy being healed better, but there is no doubt that Jake showed for stretches last season that he was the driver of his line, no matter what definition people want to apply to the term.

 

[hrdpuk]

regardless of definition of "line driver" how much is a 27yo forward with good size and proven scoring ability worth and how easily are they replaced.

 

[Beesfan]

don't believe Cam and Sweeeny really think Debrusk is the guy to go all in on. Question is will Debrusk take a team friendly below market value deal or go for every cent he can. Hes taken bridge deals before so this is his only chance to cash in

It is a great question. Statements from Jake's agent in prior negotiations have shown a very aggressive posture on AVV. The last contract was reasonable but also was signed as a point of leverage for a trade. I think Jake wants close to max UFA money, and a "discount" would be like $333,333 per year.

 

[BiteThisBurrows]

There's no question DeBrusk is a good player and you'd like to have him on the team, but the question of the cap comes in and who can you move and who can be replaced more easily. If Bergeron comes back somebody's got to go. In that light you see how much money and term DeBrusk wants and if you're not close he's the best guy to move.
If you can sign him to an extension of course you move somebody else. Likely Gryz. Forbert's a maybe, but he's also kind of what you want on D in your 5/6 pairing as a non sexy but solid shot blocker bigger D man. I think you have to move Gryz and replace him with Zboril until Lohrei's ready.

 

[BruinDust]

regardless of definition of "line driver" how much is a 27yo forward with good size and proven scoring ability worth and how easily are they replaced.

The question ultimately is.....what do they expect out of Jake Debrusk next year, and in the years following if were to sign an extension.

For me, I only care about what he's done since mid-February 2022. Anything before that in my opinion is inconsequential when discussing this player. Whatever malaise or whatever was eating at him in those prior years (Covid years), didn't seem to impact his production once we get to that point.

So what has Jake done since that point in time. Well, in 112 games (regular season and playoffs), he's scored 51 goals and 36 assist, which pro-rates to 37 goals and 26 assists over 82 games .

The past 18 months or so, his age 25 and 26 seasons, have been prime production time. He's in his prime right now heading into his age 27 season.

I think they can safely project 30-35 goals and 20-25 assists out of Jake Debrusk next year and I'll say at least the two years after. Age 30 onward all bets are off, but I'd feel safe offering Jake up to a 5-year term, maybe even 6. Taking him to age 32 (or 33 with a 6th year). I feel max-term contracts (7-8 years) should be reserved for your franchise-level players. I like that precedent. Jake is a notch below that.

How hard is it to obtain 30-35 goal scorers in their prime? Well, 40 players met or exceeded 35 goals last season. And it's puts him in company with some awfully good and highly compensated hockey players.

Jake's issue with the AAV he can command is his assist numbers. He's never been a strong playmaker. With the puck, he does suffer from tunnel-vision at times. I did an analysis a few years back about how poorly him and Krejci worked together and I counted one goal that year where Jake made the primary assists on Krejci's goal. It's just not Jake's strong-suit. Doesn't mean he can't make a pass or play. It just means he's likely never going to be the guy on his line carrying the puck a lot and distributing to open teammates. Which is perfectly fine really. I want Jake for his strong aspects, playing that straight-line power game.

I think with a 35g/25a projection, he's a 6-6.5 million AAV player. So right here today, I'd be comfortable at 6-6.5 million AAV over 5-6 years.

The question now is, can he get those assist numbers up? The fact playmaking isn't his strength says it likely won't jump a whole lot. His minutes will likely be the same at EV roughly and he'll still have PK duty. The catch is will he get a bigger role on the PP, meaning more time on PP unit 1 where Pasta resides.

He could see his assist numbers bump with more PP time with Pasta. If he can get to 35 goals and say 35-40 assists, put him in company with guys who make a lot more than 6 million per.

Will Jake want to bet on himself and see if he can produce even more before extending? Or do the Bruins want to hedge their bet and get this deal done now before his production potentially goes up (and with it his next salary). Can another 10-15 assists get him into the 7 million (or more) range?

The last point for Jake is more to do with the Bruins. Since 2020, they've surrendered four 1sts and four 2nds chasing glory. Can they afford to let Jake Debrusk walk away next year, treating him like their own rental? At some point, you got to stop sending assets out the door.

All that to say, I think the Bruins really want to keep him now. But does he want to stay? We can't deny he asked out before. Is there somewhere else he'd rather be? I have no idea. But if he's aiming to leave, then the Bruins MUST get some sort of return on this player. I just don't think they can afford not to. This isn't Loui Eriksson in 2016 when the Bruin had a cupboard full of prospects and draft picks. Things have changed.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

How often does Debrusk carry the puck? If it's not a breakaway (which he is the best on the team at) or 2 on 1 he rarely even tries to carry thru. Can't see how one could say Debrusk drives a line when he really doesn't have the puck very much.



Isn't a rumor by definition not real?

It would be interesting if you could statistically quantify that. But I would say not a whole lot. I'm not saying it's a massive part of his game either, but I would slightly rather have the puck on his stick moving it up ice than Pasta's. They're both wingers who are more about finishing plays off than setting them up, and their numbers reflect that, and that's completely ok. Jake just gets a couple more brownie points from me as a reliable puck carrier, even if David can make more of those highlight reel elite plays.

 

[hrdpuk]

"How hard is it to obtain 30-35 goal scorers in their prime? Well, 40 players met or exceeded 35 goals last season. And it's puts him in company with some awfully good and highly compensated hockey players."


Out of those 40 players best guess how many would realistically be obtainable to the Bruins in the time frame necessary to replace DeBrusk.

 

[KrejciMVP]

the Bruins don't have a center who can set up jake for 30-35 goals next year unless you think Krejci and Bergeron are coming back. Takes a lot of puck possession to get those numbers. with lack of forward depth the top D man on other teams can key in on Jake

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

don't believe Cam and Sweeeny really think Debrusk is the guy to go all in on. Question is will Debrusk take a team friendly below market value deal or go for every cent he can. Hes taken bridge deals before so this is his only chance to cash in

Why on earth would he do that?

 

[BruinDust]

"How hard is it to obtain 30-35 goal scorers in their prime? Well, 40 players met or exceeded 35 goals last season. And it's puts him in company with some awfully good and highly compensated hockey players."


Out of those 40 players best guess how many would realistically be obtainable to the Bruins in the time frame necessary to replace DeBrusk.

It's not many. And there really would be no clear-cut answer to replacing his 30+ goals. The few who would be available come with question marks like massive cap hits (think Tavares, Jeff Skinner, etc.).

 

[JOKER 192]

Why on earth would he do that?

Exactly, he already took a bridge , it's cash in time, the one and only chance he gets. I wouldn't be surprised if either, the Bruins overpay or Jake goes to market . Then there is always the trade option. That's what I think happens. If there is one player that isn't allergic to Alberta , this is him.

 

[hrdpuk]

It's not many. And there really would be no clear-cut answer to replacing his 30+ goals. The few who would be available come with question marks like massive cap hits (think Tavares, Jeff Skinner, etc.).

I hope he wants to stay. Get him signed.

 

[KrejciMVP]

Why on earth would he do that?

The Bruins have a number they are willing to pay and it's probably lower than market value. If he comes in too high, I'd trade for center prospects or picks. Bruins need to rebuild at canter before spending 6.5 to 7 on a FA winger long term. that 7 mill can also get a really good defensman

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

The Bruins have a number they are willing to pay and it's probably lower than market value. If he comes in too high, I'd trade for center prospects or picks. Bruins need to rebuild at canter before spending 6.5 to 7 on a FA winger long term. that 7 mill can also get a really good defensman

They can spend on Debrusk and still have plenty of money for other needs. Like $12M+ (even after signing Debrusk for $7M, Sway for $5M, and Freddy for $2.75M) if they trade Ullmark next offseason.

Exactly, he already took a bridge , it's cash in time, the one and only chance he gets. I wouldn't be surprised if either, the Bruins overpay or Jake goes to market . Then there is always the trade option. That's what I think happens. If there is one player that isn't allergic to Alberta , this is him.

He could also sign a market level deal like McAvoy and Pasta did.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

For me, I only care about what he's done since mid-February 2022.So what has Jake done since that point in time. Well, in 112 games (regular season and playoffs), he's scored 51 goals and 36 assist, which pro-rates to 37 goals and 26 assists over 82 games .The past 18 months or so, his age 25 and 26 seasons, have been prime production time. He's in his prime right now heading into his age 27 season.I think they can safely project 30-35 goals and 20-25 assists out of Jake Debrusk next year and I'll say at least the two years after. I like that precedent. Jake is a notch below that.How hard is it to obtain 30-35 goal scorers in their prime? Well, 40 players met or exceeded 35 goals last season. And it's puts him in company with some awfully good and highly compensated hockey players.

Jake's issue with the AAV he can command is his assist numbers. He's never been a strong playmaker. With the puck, he does suffer from tunnel-vision at times. I did an analysis a few years back about how poorly him and Krejci worked together and I counted one goal that year where Jake made the primary assists on Krejci's goal. It's just not Jake's strong-suit. Doesn't mean he can't make a pass or play. It just means he's likely never going to be the guy on his line carrying the puck a lot and distributing to open teammates. Which is perfectly fine really. I want Jake for his strong aspects, playing that straight-line power game.

I think with a 35g/25a projection, he's a 6-6.5 million AAV player. So right here today, I'd be comfortable at 6-6.5 million AAV over 5-6 years.

The question now is, can he get those assist numbers up? The fact playmaking isn't his strength says it likely won't jump a whole lot. His minutes will likely be the same at EV roughly and he'll still have PK duty. The catch is will he get a bigger role on the PP, meaning more time on PP unit 1 where Pasta resides.

He could see his assist numbers bump with more PP time with Pasta. If he can get to 35 goals and say 35-40 assists, put him in company with guys who make a lot more than 6 million per.

Will Jake want to bet on himself and see if he can produce even more before extending? Or do the Bruins want to hedge their bet and get this deal done now before his production potentially goes up (and with it his next salary). Can another 10-15 assists get him into the 7 million (or more) range?

The last point for Jake is more to do with the Bruins. Since 2020, they've surrendered four 1sts and four 2nds chasing glory. Can they afford to let Jake Debrusk walk away next year, treating him like their own rental? At some point, you got to stop sending assets out the door.

All that to say, I think the Bruins really want to keep him now. But does he want to stay? We can't deny he asked out before. Is there somewhere else he'd rather be? I have no idea. But if he's aiming to leave, then the Bruins MUST get some sort of return on this player. I just don't think they can afford not to. This isn't Loui Eriksson in 2016 when the Bruin had a cupboard full of prospects and draft picks. Things have changed.

Despite projections, Debrusk is not a 35-goal scorer until he scores 35 goals in a season.