Former Bruins Jake DeBrusk - gone to Nucks

[MattFromFranklin]

The “consensus” is who is the right question. Here’s an example of a consensus from 2016. How did that #3 consensus pick work out? How about 17?

View attachment 879848

* Not pictured: Jordan Kyrou, Ryan Lindgren, or Adam Fox

A few years ago I went back and looked at the 2015 and 2016 draft rankings among the "reputable" scouting services (TSN, ISS, RLR, HP, FC, THN) and then did the aggregate.

For 2015, here were notable players still on the board when the Bruins picked, along with their aggregate ranking:

10th: Mathew Barzal (highest rated player)
12th: Kyle Connor (2nd highest rated player)
14th: Travis Konecny
17th: Thomas Chabot (highest rated D)
18th: Joel Eriksson Ek
21st: Jakub Zboril
23rd: Brock Boeser
26th: Jake DeBrusk
30th: Brandon Carlo
40th: Zach Senyshyn

For 2016, here were some notable rankings (on the aggregate):

24th: Alex DeBrincat (highest rated player when the Bruins picked at 29)
32nd: Tage Thompson
45th: Ryan Lindgren
46th: Jordan Kyrou
49th: Adam Fox
64th: Trent Frederic

It was interesting looking back and seeing where players were rated.

 

[Kate08]

I'm still pissed they wasted a pick on JFK who made Tyler Ennis look like Bob Probert

I forgot about him. Thinking I was reading about John Fitzgerald Kennedy playing hockey for the Bruins was always a mindf***.

 

[Absurdity]

Do the Bruins offer 6x6 and does he take it?

 

[bme44]

He comes across very well

Gotta make it work

I want this guy to remain a Bruin

 

[bruinmann77]

i like to keep him but just not an overpay for him.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

The “consensus” is who is the right question. Here’s an example of a consensus from 2016. How did that #3 consensus pick work out? How about 17?

View attachment 879848

* Not pictured: Jordan Kyrou, Ryan Lindgren, or Adam Fox

What the hell are you talking about?

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Kind of though. Idk who the other player is, but they scored 31 more goals over that timeframe than debrusk

In one fewer season.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

they went with consensus on the defenseman and ended up with zboril. they reached a little bit for debrusk and he turned out fine.
senyshyn was the real head scratcher and ultimately was a bust.

they did get carlo in round 2, which is easily worth the spot they picked senyshyn in.

2015 sucked, but it's 2024 now. time to move on, just like the seguin trade.

Yeah if they came out of it with Barzal, Connor and Zboril like they should've no one would be complaining about Zboril not working out

 

[goldenblack]

The “consensus” is who is the right question. Here’s an example of a consensus from 2016. How did that #3 consensus pick work out? How about 17?

View attachment 879848

* Not pictured: Jordan Kyrou, Ryan Lindgren, or Adam Fox

In fairness you picked another bad draft class to do this with (and I get where you were going), because it's another loaded one where even a monkey throwing darts at a board lands Thompson, Debrincat, etc

Your point was best served in a draft year where over 50% of the first round didn't hit so hard. The couple busts happen all the time.

What was so shocking in 2015 is we were ALL right. If you look back at all our board choices from Connor down to Konecny to Chabot. Every one of us on the sideline chose better than the 3 our brass took. Was one for the books for sure. It was actually really hard to bust that draft.

Kind of though. Idk who the other player is, but they scored 31 more goals over that timeframe than debrusk

Right, so the 2M more makes sense. Meaning Jake CAN ask for 7M here.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

In fairness you picked another bad draft class to do this with (and I get where you were going), because it's another loaded one where even a monkey throwing darts at a board lands Thompson, Debrincat, etc

Your point was best served in a draft year where over 50% of the first round didn't hit so hard. The couple busts happen all the time.

What was so shocking in 2015 is we were ALL right. If you look back at all our board choices from Connor down to Konecny to Chabot. Every one of us on the sideline chose better than the 3 our brass took. Was one for the books for sure. It was actually really hard to bust that draft.



Right, so the 2M more makes sense. Meaning Jake CAN ask for 7M here.

The point is that while they botched the 2015 draft, the lesson isn’t “just take consensus best player available”.

 

[DKH]

I want this guy to remain a Bruin

Makes sense

DeBrusk- Heinen 2024

Donny vote with your wallet

 

[goldenblack]

The point is that while they botched the 2015 draft, the lesson isn’t “just take consensus best player available”.

You would need to model it frankly. Using Charlie there doesn't prove much. Everyone was taking Yakupov with high pick. Yes the Sens went against consensus going Stutzle there, but consensus by a spot or 2 maybe. Sometimes you get bad luck like poor Nolan Patrick. But when we go off script we go WAY off.

I have to assume once your model goes this far off the consensus rankings

2015 NHL Draft Prospect Consensus Rankings

Here is our 2015 NHL draft prospect consensus rankings. We take some of the top NHL draft prospect rankings lists, assign some values and come out with a top rankings list.

www.mynhldraft.com

You're playing with fire. Specially when a few guys were basically consensus top 10's and were ALL there.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

You would need to model it frankly. Using Charlie there doesn't prove much. Everyone was taking Yakupov with high pick. Yes the Sens went against consensus going Stutzle there, but consensus by a spot or 2 maybe. Sometimes you get bad luck like poor Nolan Patrick. But when we go off script we go WAY off.

I have to assume once your model goes this far off the consensus rankings

2015 NHL Draft Prospect Consensus Rankings

Here is our 2015 NHL draft prospect consensus rankings. We take some of the top NHL draft prospect rankings lists, assign some values and come out with a top rankings list.

www.mynhldraft.com

You're playing with fire. Specially when a few guys were basically consensus top 10's and were ALL there.

Who do you include in a "consensus" for the mythical best player available list? In 2017, do you include Corey Pronman? Because he had Elias Petterson ranked 17 and Cale Makar ranked 18, with Eeli Tolvanen 7 and Cody Glass 4th. Bob McKenzie had Petterson ranked 7th, and Dobber had him 8th. Craig Button had Cody Glass over Heiskanen and Petterson.

The 2014 "consensus" rankings had Michael Dal Colle ahead of Draisaitl. Brayden Point 35th overall. Nick Ritchie and Josh Ho Sang ahead of David Pastrnak. Dylan Larkin 19th with Brendan Perlini 6th.

2018 saw Filip Zadina ranked ahead of Brady Tkachuk on everyone's rankings.

Lysell was "consensus" BPA when we drafted him. Vaakanainen and Robert Thomas were literally right next to each other. Other than Senyshyn, where have the Bruins gone WAY off script? Lohrei?

 

[Kalus]

they went with consensus on the defenseman and ended up with zboril. they reached a little bit for debrusk and he turned out fine.
senyshyn was the real head scratcher and ultimately was a bust.

they did get carlo in round 2, which is easily worth the spot they picked senyshyn in.

2015 sucked, but it's 2024 now. time to move on, just like the seguin trade.

Zboril was the correct pick at 13. It didn’t work out. That is ok. Statistically, consensus at the top of the draft wins vs off the board picks by a very, very wide margin.

 

[Kalus]

A few years ago I went back and looked at the 2015 and 2016 draft rankings among the "reputable" scouting services (TSN, ISS, RLR, HP, FC, THN) and then did the aggregate.

For 2015, here were notable players still on the board when the Bruins picked, along with their aggregate ranking:

10th: Mathew Barzal (highest rated player)
12th: Kyle Connor (2nd highest rated player)
14th: Travis Konecny
17th: Thomas Chabot (highest rated D)
18th: Joel Eriksson Ek
21st: Jakub Zboril
23rd: Brock Boeser
26th: Jake DeBrusk
30th: Brandon Carlo
40th: Zach Senyshyn

For 2016, here were some notable rankings (on the aggregate):

24th: Alex DeBrincat (highest rated player when the Bruins picked at 29)
32nd: Tage Thompson
45th: Ryan Lindgren
46th: Jordan Kyrou
49th: Adam Fox
64th: Trent Frederic

It was interesting looking back and seeing where players were rated.

Case in point on going with consensus at the top of the draft. Take your swings starting at the end of the second round or so.

 

[JoeIsAStud]

To

You would need to model it frankly. Using Charlie there doesn't prove much. Everyone was taking Yakupov with high pick. Yes the Sens went against consensus going Stutzle there, but consensus by a spot or 2 maybe. Sometimes you get bad luck like poor Nolan Patrick. But when we go off script we go WAY off.

I have to assume once your model goes this far off the consensus rankings

2015 NHL Draft Prospect Consensus Rankings

Here is our 2015 NHL draft prospect consensus rankings. We take some of the top NHL draft prospect rankings lists, assign some values and come out with a top rankings list.

www.mynhldraft.com

You're playing with fire. Specially when a few guys were basically consensus top 10's and were ALL there.

Consensus thought Dylan Strome was the 3rd best player in the drat. Consensus didn't think Sebastian Aho was a first round guy. And face it in a redraft I would take Aho 100 times out of 100 over Barzal.

Either way, I am sick and tired of people whining about it. It's been 9 years if they drafted different players those players may well be long gone by now.

 

[MattFromFranklin]

To


Consensus thought Dylan Strome was the 3rd best player in the drat. Consensus didn't think Sebastian Aho was a first round guy. And face it in a redraft I would take Aho 100 times out of 100 over Barzal.

Either way, I am sick and tired of people whining about it. It's been 9 years if they drafted different players those players may well be long gone by now.

Aho was ranked 88th on the aggregate of the reputable draft lists. Canes fans were upset when he was picked because they felt he was a reach. The thing about taking reaches is that the player you reach for has to be a "hit." And by "hit", they have to be just as good or even better than the players you passed on. The Canes scouts were correct with their evaluation of him. The DeBrusk and Senyshyn were both reaches at the time, and although DeBrusk was a "hit," he is nowhere near the player that Barzal/Connor are so that wasn't a great evaluation relative to the players they passed on.

Strome was 5th on the aggregate of reputable lists, with Hanifin (3rd) and Marner (4th) ahead of him. Kaprizov was 106th on the aggregate, and only appeared in 4 of the 6 reputable lists, with his highest ranking being 55th.

For the 2015 draft, had the Bruins gone on the aggregate, they would've had the following players in the first 2 rounds:

13th: Mathew Barzal
14th: Kyle Connor
15th: Thomas Chabot (highest rated D) or Travis Konecny (highest rated player)
37th: Paul Bittner
45th: Jansen Harkins
52nd: Oliver Kylington

Some other interesting scenarios had the Bruins gone with the aggregate
2014: Barbashev over Pastrnak, Brayden Point over Donato
2016: Chychrun over McAvoy, DeBrincat over Frederic, Jesper Bratt over Cameron Clarke

 

[UncleRico]

Right, so the 2M more makes sense. Meaning Jake CAN ask for 7M here.

On the flip side he has nearly identical regular/postseason numbers and similar PP/PK deployments as Bryan rust who just got $5.1 AAV.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

In fairness you picked another bad draft class to do this with (and I get where you were going), because it's another loaded one where even a monkey throwing darts at a board lands Thompson, Debrincat, etc

Your point was best served in a draft year where over 50% of the first round didn't hit so hard. The couple busts happen all the time.

What was so shocking in 2015 is we were ALL right. If you look back at all our board choices from Connor down to Konecny to Chabot. Every one of us on the sideline chose better than the 3 our brass took. Was one for the books for sure. It was actually really hard to bust that draft.



Right, so the 2M more makes sense. Meaning Jake CAN ask for 7M here.

Just shows how much of a crap shoot the draft is.

Many of "we" never saw any of the players involved actually play a game. Just went by the consensus of the so-called experts. It was a unique draft in that sense, that the consensus that far up the first round really did play out correctly.

 

[ODAAT]

Just shows how much of a crap shoot the draft is.

Many of "we" never saw any of the players involved actually play a game. Just went by the consensus of the so-called experts. It was a unique draft in that sense, that the consensus that far up the first round really did play out correctly.

good point. I typically don`t comment much after the draft unless it involves a player I have actually seen play

Typically, when I lived in Halifax, I commented only on QMJHL the B`s selected, now, I`m on the West Coast and don`t really watch other Junior leagues other than the Mem Cup and a few scattered games on TV if they involve a B`s pick

Anyone whose followed this league for some time have all seen some first rounder "can`t misses" who were packing groceries within a few years meanwhile some nobody 6th rounder cracks a NHL lineup, total crapshoot

Thought Jake was great in the playoffs but I`m AOK moving on from him, problem is, UFA`s are almost always overpayments so will the B`s overpay for Jake or someone else? I dunno, I don`t get paid to make those calls

 

[Tbaybruin]

What he gets on the market will be his actual worth.

Not really. A lot of FA get over paid

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Not really. A lot of FA get over paid

Overpaid as compared to what?

 

[Babajingo]

Yeah if they came out of it with Barzal, Connor and Zboril like they should've no one would be complaining about Zboril not working out

The kicker to me is that if he was so hard on Seny, he should've traded down the 15th pick for multiple picks or something. Seny would've still been around for later picks. There would have been plenty of teams fighting for that pick, with Connor, Barzal and Chabot still on the board.

 

[Tbaybruin]

Overpaid as compared to what?

They are over paid for what they produce. A massive list over the years. People call it the silly season for a reason.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

On the flip side he has nearly identical regular/postseason numbers and similar PP/PK deployments as Bryan rust who just got $5.1 AAV.

He's played riding shotgun with Crosby so you have to think he is happy there and took a bit of a discount.