Tribute Jack Campbell Discussion

[Gary Nylund]

Mrazek's deal is immaterial on Campbell's. Say we sign Reimer/Raanta on the 28th instead, Soup still has the Driedger and Ullmark/Grubaur deals to look at demand. Straight up more proven than Driedger, comparable level of play but slightly fewer games played than the latter two. And with one of the R's as the backup he's staring down the prospect as a season as a starter to drive up his value.

I having a nagging feeling that Leafs were at Mrazek/Driedger money in the offseason, Ullmark/Grubauer if he delivers over a full season,
Overhart was at Ullmark money to start the season, Grubauer/Markstrom/Bob money if he delivers (depending on how well he delivers)

Campbell will have to decide if he's willing to close the gap.

Do you have any "feeling" on what it would cost if we wanted to extend Campbell today?

 

[4thline]

Do you have any "feeling" on what it would cost if we wanted to extend Campbell today?

If I was his agent, no less than Grubauer/Markstrom IMO

 

[ACC1224]

Bigger mistake, not signing Campbell or Marner before their seasons started?

 

[Confucius]

As much as most of you want Soup signed ASAP I still want to see him play a full season as a starter and then see what he does in playoffs .. as most of you know I am not a big Dubie fan but on this one I still think he has played it right .. most fans have clearly forgot da game 7 house league goal against in a tight game which decided da game and series .. now look I believe everyone deserves a 2nd chance but handing out a big long term contract for Soup could still massively backfire .. now if he plays full season and takes us to playoffs and wins us a round then hell yes give him his LT deal but for me until then I think prudent move is to wait and see

Well that is the safe road and I understand that. Unfortunately taking the safe road means you pay top price. Sometimes a GM has to be a gambler. Predict right the GM is a star and his personal reputation gains notoriety, guess wrong he is a bum and get out of here. Dubas prefers the safe road. I get it.

Dubas is in a no win situation right now. What is going through his mind does he hope Soup starts playing badly? If Soup just carries on he will only cost Dubas more. By waiting Dubas really gains nothing because Soup can have a great year and still bomb out next year anyway.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Well that is the safe road and I understand that. Unfortunately taking the safe road means you pay top price. Sometimes a GM has to be a gambler. Predict right the GM is a star and his personal reputation gains notoriety, guess wrong he is a bum and get out of here. Dubas prefers the safe road. I get it.

Dubas is in a no win situation right now. What is going through his mind does he hope Soup starts playing badly? If Soup just carries on he will only cost Dubas more. By waiting Dubas really gains nothing because Soup can have a great year and still bomb out next year anyway.

He has proven nothing yet .. zero .. you don't give big $$$ contracts out until guys perform .. many many many guys get overpaid after they perform and that is fine .. you perform as a player then you get paid .. but you don't pay a guy before he performs .. Leafs have already paid out Matty Mitch and Willy before they have done anything .. at least JT was a vet with a playoff series win under his belt .. we can't keep making these big $$$ AAV mistakes .. now Willy is starting to show he is worth his AAV but he was overpaid to start with too .. we need smart GMing here on CAP .. believe me i hate da CAP with a passion but we do not control league .. league is controlled by Jacobs who controls about 10-15 owners who make him CHM .. Leafs Habs Cdn teams and Rangers are 60% of NHL revenues yet are controlled by a cheap thug

 

[Gary Nylund]

If I was his agent, no less than Grubauer/Markstrom IMO

That sounds like a good guess. What if he wins a Vezina, plays just as well in the playoffs and we win a couple of rounds, what's the price then?

Would you do a 6x6 deal now? I think I would.

Well that is the safe road and I understand that. Unfortunately taking the safe road means you pay top price. Sometimes a GM has to be a gambler. Predict right the GM is a star and his personal reputation gains notoriety, guess wrong he is a bum and get out of here. Dubas prefers the safe road. I get it.

Dubas is in a no win situation right now. What is going through his mind does he hope Soup starts playing badly? If Soup just carries on he will only cost Dubas more. By waiting Dubas really gains nothing because Soup can have a great year and still bomb out next year anyway.

The bolded is absolutely true and a point that I think some people are missing. Goalies are voodoo, they're always a gamble and while extending Jack now or next summer is less risky as he is more proven now, it's also more risky because the price will be so much higher.

 

[Buds17]

Bigger mistake, not signing Campbell or Marner before their seasons started?

Campbell won't be looking at money of that magnitude. Conversely, he can also leave a lot easier as the pending UFA.

 

[Confucius]

He has proven nothing yet .. zero .. you don't give big $$$ contracts out until guys perform .. many many many guys get overpaid after they perform and that is fine .. you perform as a player then you get paid .. but you don't pay a guy before he performs .. Leafs have already paid out Matty Mitch and Willy before they have done anything .. at least JT was a vet with a playoff series win under his belt .. we can't keep making these big $$$ AAV mistakes .. now Willy is starting to show he is worth his AAV but he was overpaid to start with too .. we need smart GMing here on CAP .. believe me i hate da CAP with a passion but we do not control league .. league is controlled by Jacobs who controls about 10-15 owners who make him CHM .. Leafs Habs Cdn teams and Rangers are 60% of NHL revenues yet are controlled by a cheap thug

Well, I wouldn't say he has proven nothing yet, I think he has lost only 8 games so far in his leaf career. I'm one of the few who doesn't really blame Dubas for Matty's 5 year deal. Maybe the threat was real that Arizona was going to offer him 14 million a year. What then? Dubas did well on William's deal as well. Marner was the only bad decision and the strange thing is I think Dubas was in the better position there than any of the other deals.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Campbell won't be looking at money of that magnitude. Conversely, he can also leave a lot easier as the pending UFA.

Not signing Campbell could be (and probably is) the bigger mistake despite the fact that he is paid less. The way I see it, not extending Campbell might me we have to pay him 2-3 million more per season then we would have last summer. Marner's deal was so ridiculous that there's no way he ends up with a deal that pays him that much more. He basically got paid like a UFA with a lengthy track record, I still get pissed with I think about it.

 

[4thline]

That sounds like a good guess. What if he wins a Vezina, plays just as well in the playoffs and we win a couple of rounds, what's the price then?

Would you do a 6x6 deal now? I think I would.

1stly, copout but whatever the market bears. I think teams will be wary after the Bob debacle and Price difficulties, so maybe 8-9 per but not max term?

And yes I likely would.

But re: the post above mine, I don't think 6x6 is 2-3 more than what we could have done in the off-season. If he was willing to sign for Mrazek money it would have been done.

 

[ACC1224]

Campbell won't be looking at money of that magnitude. Conversely, he can also leave a lot easier as the pending UFA.

Yeah for sure. I didn't mean the situations were the same just the timing of it.

I was on the wait and see train with Campbell, I was wrong there.
Marner should have been locked up earlier though, no question.

 

[Buds17]

Not signing Campbell could be (and probably is) the bigger mistake despite the fact that he is paid less. The way I see it, not extending Campbell might me we have to pay him 2-3 million more per season then we would have last summer. Marner's deal was so ridiculous that there's no way he ends up with a deal that pays him that much more. He basically got paid like a UFA with a lengthy track record, I still get pissed with I think about it.

I think each player would be tough to replace in his own way. We didn't lose one and hopefully won't be losing the other either.

 

[Confucius]

1stly, copout but whatever the market bears. I think teams will be wary after the Bob debacle and Price difficulties, so maybe 8-9 per but not max term?

And yes I likely would.

But re: the post above mine, I don't think 6x6 is 2-3 more than what we could have done in the off-season. If he was willing to sign for Mrazek money it would have been done.

If he were to sign for less per year, why would you be against a longer 8 year deal. Yes, I understand he will be old and washed up (lol) but we would have had him at a more affordable and probably doable amount for 4 or 5 years.

 

[Gary Nylund]

1stly, copout but whatever the market bears. I think teams will be wary after the Bob debacle and Price difficulties, so maybe 8-9 per but not max term?

And yes I likely would.

But re: the post above mine, I don't think 6x6 is 2-3 more than what we could have done in the off-season. If he was willing to sign for Mrazek money it would have been done.

8-9 per, that scares the crap out of me, sigh. I really wish we had gambled last summer.

Off the top of my head, I think 5 years at 4 million (and quite possibly a bit less) last summer would have gotten it done. Just a bit more dollars than Mrazek, but more term and enough to set him up for life which would likely have been very hard for Campbell to turn down considering how little he's banked during his career. He looked so good to me last season, both regular season and playoffs, my only concern was durability which TBH seems like it was never a big issue. I'd be very curious to know what the thinking was behind not getting this done.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think each player would be tough to replace in his own way. We didn't lose one and hopefully won't be losing the other either.

I don't think we would have had to replace Marner. We could have just said no f***ing way are we paying you 11 million and do a bridge deal instead.

 

[Confucius]

8-9 per, that scares the crap out of me, sigh. I really wish we had gambled last summer.

Off the top of my head, I think 5 years at 4 million (and quite possibly a bit less) last summer would have gotten it done. Just a bit more dollars than Mrazek, but more term and enough to set him up for life which would likely have been very hard for Campbell to turn down considering how little he's banked during his career. He looked so good to me last season, both regular season and playoffs, my only concern was durability which TBH seems like it was never a big issue. I'd be very curious to know what the thinking was behind not getting this done.

Durability shouldn't matter much, that is why we have insurance and then we move on. It's not like we have to give up more assets to keep him.

 

[4thline]

8-9 per, that scares the crap out of me, sigh. I really wish we had gambled last summer.

Off the top of my head, I think 5 years at 4 million (and quite possibly a bit less) last summer would have gotten it done. Just a bit more dollars than Mrazek, but more term and enough to set him up for life which would likely have been very hard for Campbell to turn down considering how little he's banked during his career. He looked so good to me last season, both regular season and playoffs, my only concern was durability which TBH seems like it was never a big issue. I'd be very curious to know what the thinking was behind not getting this done.

Looking at the numbers, there's a clear case that he beats Ullmark in everything but GP, and outside of GP is in the convo with Grubaur and Markstrom over the 3 years before all the deals. So there's an argument that 5x4 is underselling him by upwards of 5m dollars. but then examining the gamble, even if everything goes according to team plan and we get a 50/50 start split with Mrazek he's up with the higher two.

He'll be up around 6 mill career earnings by the end of this deal. If you look at outcomes of this season and the upcoming goalie market
He tanks out of the league/ career ending injury (10% x $0)= 0
He takes a big step back, is looking at a deal as a clear back up (20% x (2mx2yrs) = 800k
He takes a slight step back, is looking at a 1B type Mrazek/Driedger deal (30% x (3.8m x 3 yrs) = 3.42m
He holds, is looking at a 1A type Grubaur/Markstrom deal (30% x (6mx6) = 10.8
He blows up, is looking at a Bob deal (10% x 9mx7) = 6.3

The expected value is only slightly ahead, but barring career ending injury he's still in a set for life/ generational wealth type position, and in two outcomes (30 - 50% likelihood) he's up 16+ million on the deal you offered.


I think we were/are gambling on his desire to stay and his humility, hoping that he and Mrazek would emerge as near equals and him not being the kind of guy to look at the market and say screw Mraz, I'm worth way more.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Guys get paid when they earn something not before .. these are freakin kids here .. too much $$$ too quick and too many get da money for nothing and your chicks for free mentality .. Dubie learned da hard way as a rook himself .. Soup makes it through year as starter then gets us a round in playoffs and he gets MAX $5.5M for 3-4 years folks but more likely 5M per .. now if he wins a cup like Binner/Murray did then yes 6-6.5M LT for 7-8 years is fair .. either way we are trading Mzrak and using a younger backup .. so why rush it and make a collosal error??????

 

[Gary Nylund]

Looking at the numbers, there's a clear case that he beats Ullmark in everything but GP, and outside of GP is in the convo with Grubaur and Markstrom over the 3 years before all the deals. So there's an argument that 5x4 is underselling him by upwards of 5m dollars. but then examining the gamble, even if everything goes according to team plan and we get a 50/50 start split with Mrazek he's up with the higher two.

He'll be up around 6 mill career earnings by the end of this deal. If you look at outcomes of this season and the upcoming goalie market
He tanks out of the league/ career ending injury (10% x $0)= 0
He takes a big step back, is looking at a deal as a clear back up (20% x (2mx2yrs) = 800k
He takes a slight step back, is looking at a 1B type Mrazek/Driedger deal (30% x (3.8m x 3 yrs) = 3.42m
He holds, is looking at a 1A type Grubaur/Markstrom deal (30% x (6mx6) = 10.8
He blows up, is looking at a Bob deal (10% x 9mx7) = 6.3

The expected value is only slightly ahead, but barring career ending injury he's still in a set for life/ generational wealth type position, and in two outcomes (30 - 50% likelihood) he's up 16+ million on the deal you offered.

I think we were/are gambling on his desire to stay and his humility, hoping that he and Mrazek would emerge as near equals and him not being the kind of guy to look at the market and say screw Mraz, I'm worth way more.

Thoughtful post, I have to run but will have a closer look later. One thing for sure, we are gambling for sure and the stakes are getting a bit too high for my comfort level. Cheers!

 

[Bonin21]

Saw this guy on the Amazon series and what a nice guy. Deserves the success. Goalies have it tough.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Guys get paid when they earn something not before .. these are freakin kids here .. too much $$$ too quick and too many get da money for nothing and your chicks for free mentality .. Dubie learned da hard way as a rook himself .. Soup makes it through year as starter then gets us a round in playoffs and he gets MAX $5.5M for 3-4 years folks but more likely 5M per .. now if he wins a cup like Binner/Murray did then yes 6-6.5M LT for 7-8 years is fair .. either way we are trading Mzrak and using a younger backup .. so why rush it and make a collosal error??????

Hockey is different than it was 15 years ago. Its a young man's game all about speed. You are seeing less and less players even making it to 35 in this league. Gone are the days when someone like Brian Leetch would still be putting up 40+pts in his late 30s. Players nowadays know that they might only be in the show for maybe 8-10 yrs and how many of those will be their prime?

I don't blame them for trying to secure the bag as soon as possible and get their security for life. If the team gets you cheap on your first post ELC contract. Chances are you might not get your big contracts the next go around because your production might already start declining.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Hockey is different than it was 15 years ago. Its a young man's game all about speed. You are seeing less and less players even making it to 35 in this league. Gone are the days when someone like Brian Leetch would still be putting up 40+pts in his late 30s. Players nowadays know that they might only be in the show for maybe 8-10 yrs and how many of those will be their prime?

I don't blame them for trying to secure the bag as soon as possible and get their security for life. If the team gets you cheap on your first post ELC contract. Chances are you might not get your big contracts the next go around because your production might already start declining.

Yes I am a players guy too .. especially local kids from TO .. but does not mean teams can't play tough .. that is job of GM to be an *ss for teams best interest .. we had a rook GM when at that point in time he was not ready for it

 

[Antropovsky]

Gonna be hard winning a championship signing all our players when they have peaked

 

[Menzinger]

Bigger mistake, not signing Campbell or Marner before their seasons started?

Depends on a few what ifs. If a player doesn't want to sign a contract during a period of time (like the offseason) there's not much a GM can do

 

[Apex Predator]

This man is going to cash in next season. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy!