Tribute Jack Campbell Discussion Part 2

[makbeer]

He was better in his first round performance than provided by Freddie.

Simply not true. It was by far the easiest series a Leafs goalie has faced in the last 20 years and he choked away the last 3 games.

Montreal generated barely any threatening offense.

Freddy's play vs Boston in 2018-2019 and vs CLB in 2019-2020 were better than Jack's last year, vs much more volume and difficulty.

 

[Stephen]

I honestly think he's a goalie that doesn't do well in goalie shares. Maybe its a confidence issue, getting in to rhythm or both. If he's your number 1 you've got to play him every game imo , let mrazek get b2b

We actually have quite a bit of player history to suggest Jack Campbell is a goalie who has struggled a lot in different circumstances. Not trying to insult the guy, but just understanding his career, he hasn't really thrived all that much.

But looking at his LA/Toronto tenure, the Leafs need to replicate the environment where he feels good if there's any hope of rebuilding his game in a short time. From my view on the outside, Campbell kind of thrives as the darkhorse challenger who can come in on limited assignment and push the starter. That happened with Quick, and that's how he stole Andersen's job. Early in season, he was able to swoop in and save Toronto early season when Mrazek went down. So how we get him in the headspace where he feels like he's successfully stealing Mrazek's job.

 

[thusk]

If you're going to be as bad as Campbell has been for 3 months, you deserve to be held accountable. Doesn't matter that he's such a nice guy, you need your goalie to stop the puck.

Campbell was not bad last 3 month

Leafs was bad defensivly a month and half and goalie was bad a month and half.

Not sure what you did for a living but in my world you can't keep going to management and telling them you made a mistake and need to correct it and it will cost $$$, before management has had enough.

McBackup -> Sparks -> Hutch -> Soup and now may need to dump or let walk

Anderson and Rittich to Mrzaek and may need to dump Mrazek if Dubas decides to bring in another goalie

Hyman and Foligno to Ritchie and Bunting in; Ritchie dumped after 1/4 of the season

Kadri to Kerfoot and Barrie. Barrie out, Brodie in.

Z -> Ceci. Ceci out, Bogo in.

Cliff in, Cliffy out, Simmonds in

Kappy, AJ out, Jumbo, Vesey, Boyd in - Jumbo, Vesey, Boyd out -> Kampf, Bunting, Kase in

Rielly hainsey
Gardiner zaitsev
Dermott polak
Marincin/borgman/carrick

Rielly brodie
Muzzin- lyubushkin/holl
Sandin/ holl/ lyubushkin
Dermott/liljegren

Just defensivly, its a really huge upgrade since hes gm ...

 

[makbeer]

A coach works on concentration, readiness, not dropping to soon, puck handling, communication with D....all these issues show up in Jack...that is coaching.

True. But Jack also has deep technical issues, which is why I would move off him. You can't change the fact that he can't drop cleanly into his butterfly. It's such a fundamental movement to goaltending and there are holes every single time. And you can't change how he moves down low or how he is able to engage with the post and get in and out of it. In 2022 you need to be able to do all of these things consistently and seamlessly to have predictable success at a high level. The game is too fast east to west and down low.

 

[Stephen]

Briere coached in juniors and ran his own school but never in the NHL Before from what I see. Which fits the theme of the Leafs...rookie GM, rookie head coach, rookie goalie coach...It is really hard to point fingers at the goalie coach because the role is so subtle, but after 7 yrs it may be time to move on to someone with a track record of performance at the highest level.

Before Briere came in under previous management I think we had Rick St. Croix. Remember Jonathan Bernier laughing dismissively about how he was a technical black hole as well and how he got modern coaching to learn the reverse VH later on.

Seems like the Leafs just don't really know how to scout for goalies at a lower level or have the programs to bring them along. They always fall in love with these pure athletes and how often do we see a technically sound, structured goalie? Should look at developing a program of excellence like Florida has recently attempted to build and maybe seriously tap into a talent pipeline (aka Russia, Finland or Sweden) and get some bright minds thinking about that position.

 

[makbeer]

One thing I've noticed is he's moved from his hybrid style to a more butterfly style.
That said he had gaps in his original style but now it seems all his holes done close fast enough and his movement seems slower.
Did the coaching try to move him to a more butterfly style? If so that's bad coaching imho

I hope not. The cardinal rule among goalie coaches is you can't change the goalies' style, you have to focus on perfecting/making their style consistent. Especially at his age.

 

[Stephen]

Campbell was not bad last 3 month

Leafs was bad defensivly a month and half and goalie was bad a month and half.

Rielly hainsey
Gardiner zaitsev
Dermott polak
Marincin/borgman/carrick

Rielly brodie
Muzzin- lyubushkin/holl
Sandin/ holl/ lyubushkin
Dermott/liljegren

Just defensivly, its a really huge upgrade since hes gm ...

You might want to check the individual game logs going back to mid December. Even if you subscribe to the idea that it was mostly the defense's fault, Campbell wasn't exactly doing much beyond the environment in front of him. If he's not a difference maker in that position, what are we even doing here?

 

[Stephen]

One thing I've noticed is he's moved from his hybrid style to a more butterfly style.
That said he had gaps in his original style but now it seems all his holes done close fast enough and his movement seems slower.
Did the coaching try to move him to a more butterfly style? If so that's bad coaching imho

Is he changing to more of a butterfly style? He still has that Cujo tendency of getting into a one knee paddle down, or that Cujo twist where he takes away the five hole by rotating his hips. He's not as wild as Mrazek but I wouldn't say he has a predictable pattern when it comes to reacting to similar routine plays.

 

[Gallagbi]

Briere coached in juniors and ran his own school but never in the NHL Before from what I see. Which fits the theme of the Leafs...rookie GM, rookie head coach, rookie goalie coach...It is really hard to point fingers at the goalie coach because the role is so subtle, but after 7 yrs it may be time to move on to someone with a track record of performance at the highest level.

The Leafs brought in Imoo this summer, but quickly moved on after his tweets. Felt like he'd spend most of the time with Campbell given their previous relationship. He's not Fracoise Allair, who also didn't work out here either, but he did have more pro experience than Briere.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Frankly Dubas should not be allowed to get another goalie. He made his bed with this tandem, let him lie in it. Seriously how many mistakes is he allowed to correct ?

As many as he deems necessary. Telling your GM he can't trade or sign goalies would be ridiculous.

 

[kb]

As many as he deems necessary. Telling your GM he can't trade or sign goalies would be ridiculous.

Ok, so it wasn't just me thinking that.....

 

[thusk]

You might want to check the individual game logs going back to mid December. Even if you subscribe to the idea that it was mostly the defense's fault, Campbell wasn't exactly doing much beyond the environment in front of him. If he's not a difference maker in that position, what are we even doing here?

I suggest you to watch again game than campbell didnt played well statistically dec 1 to jan 19 like NYR, STL, colorado. Look how many goal he had no chance to stop.

It was not being a difference maker, it was being a hockey god he needed to make any difference on those game.

 

[makbeer]

Let's look at some numbers to see if we can trust Campbell in the playoffs vs the other Eastern playoff goalies:

I dug deep into the stats on frozenpool and this one stood out huge.

In the playoffs we know that you can't afford to have a lot of really bad starts from your goalie.

Among the 8 playoff goalies, here are the really bad start percentages:

Frederik Andersen: 1 really bad start - 2.6%
Sergei Bobrovsky: 3 really bad starts - 8.1%
Jack Campbell: 8 really bad starts - 21.1 %
Tristan Jarry: 4 really bad starts - 9.3%
Igor Shesterkin: 1 really bad start - 2.9%
Jeremy Swayman: 2 really bad starts - 8.7 %
Vitek Vanecek: 3 really bad starts - 12.5%
Andrew Vasilevskiy: 3 really bad starts - 7.5%

He has more than doubled the RBS of any of the other playoff goalies.

His career average is 15.3% which would also be highest on this list.

His career best was last season at over 9% - which would be 6th out of 8 goalies on this list.

Of the goalies we could consider looking at bringing in...do any of them actually fix this problem of giving us someone we can count on should jack falter?

John Gibson - also 8 RBS and 21.1%
Matt Murray - 1 RBS - 5.6%
James Reimer - 6RBS - 18.8%
Marc Andre Fleury - 10 RBS - 25.6%
Chris Drieger - 4 RBS - 26.7 %
Joonas Korpisalo - 4 RBS - 22.2%
Semyon Varlamov - 1 RBS - 6.7% (also the best on this list over the last 3 yrs)

Looking at this list - I would go after Semyon Varlamov, as this number is also backed up by long playoff runs and solid performances in the playoffs. His cap hit is also significantly lower than Murray who is hot this year but has had very inconsistent play before.

Would mean you have to trade Mrazek+ for Varlamov, let campbell walk in the offseason or bring him back on a backup deal and move forward with Varlamov for the next 2 yrs at 5m.

Not sure if the NYI would go for this, or if they are choosing to keep Varlamov or Sorokin, both are capable.

 

[makbeer]

The last time a cup,champion had a starting goalie for most of there playoffs that did not start there career with that nhl club is 2007, giguere with Anaheim. Are the leafs going to back this trend, no, no they are not.

Wow, did not know this. Mind blowing if true.

 

[ToneDog]

As many as he deems necessary. Telling your GM he can't trade or sign goalies would be ridiculous.

Not if he makes the wrong choice and keeps having to correct it. He signed Mrazek and Ritchie. Looks real good if he has to dump Mrazek as well. It adds up.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Not if he makes the wrong choice and keeps having to correct it. He signed Mrazek and Ritchie. Looks real good if he has to dump Mrazek as well. It adds up.

If you don't have confidence in him to act like a normal GM, replace him. Putting a muzzle on him is a recipe for disaster.

 

[McSnypsky]

Wow, did not know this. Mind blowing if true.

Guess the Brick Woll it is!!!

 

[centipede2233]

Wow, did not know this. Mind blowing if true.

Yup, it’s true, and just shows you how important it is to draft and develope your own goalies

 

[Stephen]

I suggest you to watch again game than campbell didnt played well statistically dec 1 to jan 19 like NYR, STL, colorado. Look how many goal he had no chance to stop.

It was not being a difference maker, it was being a hockey god he needed to make any difference on those game.

I'm well aware that the Leafs have had defensive issues during this period, but it's a partnership. The defense protects the goalie and the goalie bails out the team. But if you've been watching, Campbell has been self destructing and that has also contributed to the deterioration of the defense. He's supposed to be a difference maker, and he's failed to live up to that. It's clear neither team nor goalie have much mutual confidence right now.

At the end of the day, the conversation is a reflection of what's happening on the ice.

 

[makbeer]

Yup, it’s true, and just shows you how important it is to draft and develope your own goalies

Thanks for sharing dude.

 

[centipede2233]

Thanks for sharing dude.

Np. I’m not a specific fan of any team. I’m a hockey fan and I really enjoy the stats of hockey. I have a math background and love dissecting and noticing patterns in what makes a Stanley cup winner successful.
One other trend I’d like to share I noticed about cup champions in the cap era, is that every cup champion had an elite #1 d man on there team except the 2006 hurricanes. And that #1 elite d man was never older than 29 yrs old. The only team to buck that trend since 2006 was the 2017 pens when letang didn’t play in the playoffs, but he was on there roster technically speaking.

I stand corrected on this, d.Keith was 31 in 2014/15 when Chicago won, but still drives home the point your elite d man should be in their prime.

 

[thusk]

I'm well aware that the Leafs have had defensive issues during this period, but it's a partnership. The defense protects the goalie and the goalie bails out the team. But if you've been watching, Campbell has been self destructing and that has also contributed to the deterioration of the defense. He's supposed to be a difference maker, and he's failed to live up to that. It's clear neither team nor goalie have much mutual confidence right now.

At the end of the day, the conversation is a reflection of what's happening on the ice.

Im agree d should help goalie and goalie should help... but there is a limit of what a player alone can do.

In colorado before he allowed the third goal, he stole at least 2 goal.

-When an opposite player skate behind the net with the puck, goalie cant protect both side + the front of the net at the same time.
-You cant blame a goalie on a 2 on 0 and when a puck deflected in his own teammate in front of the net.
-You cant blame a goalie when a player a time to deflected a point shot and get time to get like 3-4-5 rebound before somebody come close of him
-you cant blame a goalie to dont stop a one timer right in the slot of one the best nhl player in mackinnon

If whats you waiting for its kind of performance carey price had last playoff to cover all the huge defensive mistake leafs did... maybe youre not realistic to ask to campbell to be as good

D need to give a chance to their goalie to make the saves and goalie need to make some.key saves to give confidence to the team. You need both to have succes if 1 of those failed, everything failed.

Dec 1 to january 19. Campbell campbell made some key save but leafs didnt give give him any chance to make a difference.
Jan 20 to today, leafs d started to help their goalie a little bit more since last 3 game where they played terrific defensivly and gave a chance to their goalie to make key saves but goalie didn't made those key saves. The good thing, toronto have a pretty schedule since the trade deadline. Its a great time to come back on track.

 

[saltming]

Is he changing to more of a butterfly style? He still has that Cujo tendency of getting into a one knee paddle down, or that Cujo twist where he takes away the five hole by rotating his hips. He's not as wild as Mrazek but I wouldn't say he has a predictable pattern when it comes to reacting to similar routine plays.

I'm saying it looks to me that he's using the butterfly more than previously. Last season stops he made regularly on his feet, this season are from his knees

 

[sittler rules!!!]

There really should be no more discussion. He is, what, 30 years old and has never proven otherwise in his other stops. He is what he is, a career back up/AHL starter. Those hoping for the Tim Thomas late bloomer run here ain't gonna happen.

 

[Niagara Bill]

True. But Jack also has deep technical issues, which is why I would move off him. You can't change the fact that he can't drop cleanly into his butterfly. It's such a fundamental movement to goaltending and there are holes every single time. And you can't change how he moves down low or how he is able to engage with the post and get in and out of it. In 2022 you need to be able to do all of these things consistently and seamlessly to have predictable success at a high level. The game is too fast east to west and down low.

These are things that I am unaware of. You obviously know a great deal. I saw the moves not understanding the cause. So, if coaching cannot fix it...move on is right. He gave out some if the biggest rebounds of his pads I have seen. He was kicking nit stopping, that may not be coachable.